emarketer webinar: retail ecommerce forecast—challenging economy drives online shopping
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©2011 eMarketer Inc.
J U N E 2 1, 2 0 1 2
Retail Ecommerce Forecast—Challenging Economy Drives Online Shopping
Jeffrey GrauPrincipal Analyst
Sponsored by:
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today
What is the outlook for online retail sales?Which product categories have the most
growth potential?What mega-trends will drive ecommerce
growth?Who shops online?Q & A
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer forecasts double-digit growth rates for ecommerce sales through 2016
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Ecommerce has steadily outperformed overall retail sales growth
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales has grown—and will continue to do so
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Consumers are shifting purchases from stores to the web
Break Out by Income (2012)
Annual Income Purchase more$100,000> 63%<$100,000 44%
Source: Deloitte, as cited in Internet Retailer, April 6, 2012
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Let’s compare analysts’ forecasts
BenchmarksUS DoC
comScore
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Is eMarketer bullish or are other analysts being too conservative?
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
“Chronically over the course of the 15 year history of ecommerce, the growth of the ecommerce market has been underestimated.” —Eric Best, CEO of Mercent, in an interview with eMarketer, February 14, 2012
Analysts tend to underestimate ecommerce growth rates
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
How are online sales doing thus far in 2012?
Online sales were strong in Q1 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Keep in mind that the internet is much more than a sales channelIt strongly influences store sales
Share by Segment, 2012
Category ShareOnline sale 7.2%Web-influenced offline sales 38.2%Web-influenced sales 45.4%
Non web-influenced offline sales 54.6%
Source: Forrester Research, as cited by Business Insider, June 12, 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today
What is the outlook for online retail sales?Which product categories have the most
growth potential?What mega-trends will drive ecommerce
growth?Who shops online?Q & A
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales is growingIn 2011, the internet accounted for 6.6% of total retail sales
Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales varies greatly by category
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Consumer packaged goods (CPG) is an online sales category with high potential
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Electronics and apparel dominate ecommerce—and will continue to do so
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Together they will account for 40% of retail ecommerce sales in 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
What are the fastest growing categories?
13.3%
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today
What is the outlook for online retail sales?Which product categories have the most
growth potential?What mega-trends will drive ecommerce
growth?Who shops online?Q & A
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
1. Portable devices power anytime, anywhere commerce
Smartphones satisfy immediate product
needs
Tablets spur product discovery and
impulse buying
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Smartphones promote showrooming by bringing the internet to the store
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Showrooming diverts sales from stores to the web
6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ said they originally planned to purchase at the store but changed their mind while there and instead bought online
Source: comScore, “State of the US Online Retail Economy in Q1 2012,” May 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Tablets help people discover products they did not know they wanted
“Our general belief is that
tablet sales are significantly additive.”
Source: eMarketer interview, April 2012Paul Cousineau
VP, Mobile ProductsWal-Mart Global Ecommerce
Matt JonesGeneral Manager of Mobile Home Depot
“With the iPad app, we focus on how we
provide this discovery experience.”
Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012
Yonatan FeldmanVP, Mobile & Global EngineeringGilt Groupe
“I would say that the tablet is creating more incremental traffic
than it is taking it away or shifting.”
Source: eMarketer interview, April 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Tablet commerce is having a noticeable impact on web sales
“We are definitely seeing continual growth of people using tablets—mobile
is our fastest growing channel. We expect traffic on tablets to continue to
increase.”Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012
“We do more than 20% of our revenue on mobile, and tablets make up about 10%
of our revenue.”
Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012 “Tablet commerce
is certainly growing, but it’s still
small—in the low double-digits.”
Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012
Yonatan FeldmanVP, Mobile & Global EngineeringGilt Groupe
Julie BornsteinSVPSephora Direct
Ed DeutscherOperating VP, Digital Commerce and Emerging PlatformsHSN
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
2. Ecommerce is helping consumers make strong connections with products
Personalized recommendations
Curated selection
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Personalization brings products of interest to the consumer’s attention
75% of the videos people watch on Netflix are the result of seeing one of its recommendations
Shopycat, a social gift-finding Facebook app that came out of Walmart Labs, aims to convert consumer insights captured via social media into practical shopping tips
eBay acquired recommendation engine Hunch’s prediction technology to surface more quality recommendations from eBay’s “long tail” of product listings.
The Container Store’s conversion rates are about three times higher for customers who interact with recommendations than for a regular visit to the same page
Present
Future
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Curated sites harness the power of social recommendations
32% of online buyers have made a purchase as a result of seeing an image on a social image-sharing site like Pinterest or Polyvore
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Pinterest has become a powerful source of traffic during its short life
Martine ReardonChief Marketing OfficerMacy’s Inc.
“We just launched on Pinterest probably two
months ago, and we are seeing a huge response.”
Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012
Brian KalmaChief Experience OfficerGemvara
In the past month, 3.36% of Gemvara’s traffic came directly from Pinterest, outpacing Twitter, Google+ and every other social network save
Facebook, which accounted for 7.38%.”
Source: Internet Retailer, February 2012
“Pinterest is a growing source of traffic for
Etsy.”
Source: AdAgeDigital, December 2011
Adam BrownPress ManagerEtsy
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Questions we will answer today
What is the outlook for online retail sales?Which product categories have the most
growth potential?What mega-trends will drive ecommerce
growth?Who shops online?Q & A
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Online shoppers and buyers defined
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Most people who want to buy online are already doing so
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Internet users across all age groups are buying online
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Older consumers will account for a greater share of online buyers
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Online buying has become a mainstream activity, where age, race and income matter less
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Lower-income shoppers now account for a quarter of online sales
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Millennials use new shopping channels
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Takeaways
Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales could easily approach 15% by 2020.
Key growth engines: o Low prices, convenience and broad selection
onlineo Mobile and tablet commerceo Personalization and curated websiteso CPGo Mainstreaming of online buying
Twitter – #eMwebinar
Drive Conversions and Revenue
Built for commerce: Conversions, transactions and revenue Highly personal, relevant email and cross-channel marketing Sophisticated made simple
Susan Wall | VP, Marketing
Abandoned Carts
From Abandon to Conversion: Why Shoppers Abandon Carts and What Merchants Can Do About It
• Top reasons shoppers abandon online purchases
• Analysis of post-abandonment email strategies
• Recommendations for maximizing conversions
bronto.com/resources
Triggered Messages
Automate, Increase Engagement & Drive Revenue with Triggered Messages
• Content and creative best practices
• 7 Triggered message program examples
• A guide to defining business rules
bronto.com/resources
Cross-Channel Marketing
Taking A ‘Crawl, Walk, Run’ Approach to Cross-Channel Marketing
• How retailers build long-lasting relationships with shoppers.
• How SMS can get shoppers to complete purchases.
bronto.com/resources
Tips & Tricks
• Expertise from the field
• White papers
• Customer success stories
• Blog posts
bronto.com/resources
©2012 eMarketer Inc.
Q&A SessionRetail Ecommerce
Forecast—Challenging Economy Drives Online
Shopping
Sponsored by:
Brontobronto.com/resources
You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to
view the deck and webinar recording.
Jeffrey Grau
How Retailers Are Leveraging 'Big Data' to Personalize Ecommerce
US Retail Ecommerce Forecast: Entering the Age of Omnichannel Retailing
Curated Ecommerce: How Less Can Be More for Shoppers
Globalizing Ecommerce: What Retailers Need to Know About Entering Foreign Markets
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To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com
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