elon musk’s visionary talk on the colonization of · pdf file1 elon musk’s...

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ElonMusk’sVisionaryTalkontheColonizationofMarsPresentedSeptember29,2016atthe67thInternationalAstronauticalCongressinGuadalajara,Mexico

Thankyouverymuchforhavingme,lookforwardtotalkingabouttheSpaceXMarsarchitecture.

AndwhatIreallywanttotrytoachievehereistomakeMarsseempossible,makeitseemasthoughit'ssomethingthatwecandoinourlifetimes—andthatyoucango,andistherereallyawaythatanyonecangoiftheywantedto?Ithinkthat'sreallytheimportantthing.

Sofirstofall,whygoanywhere,right?The...Ithinktherearereallytwofundamentalpaths.Historyisgoingtobifurcatealongtwodirections:OnepathiswestayonEarthforever,andthentherewillbesomeeventualextinctionevent—Idon'thaveanimmediatedoomsdayprophecy—butthere's...it'seventually,historyjustthattherewillbesomedoomsdayevent.

Thealternativeistobecomeaspace-faringcivilizationandamulti-planetspecies,whichIhopeyouagreethatistherightwaytogo.

Yes?

That'swhatwewant.

SohowdowefigureouthowtotakeyoutoMarsandcreateaself-sustainingcity?Acitythatitisnotmerelyanoutpost,butcouldbecomeplanetanditsownright,andthuswecouldbecomeatrulymulti-planetspecies.

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Sometimespeoplewonder,whataboutotherplacesinthesolarsystem,whyMars?

Well,justtosortofputthingsinperspective,thisiswhat,thisisanactualscaleofwhatthesolarsystemlookslike.Sowe'recurrentlyinthethirdlittlerockfromtheleft.

That'sEarth.

Yeah,exactly.

Andourgoalistogotothefourthrockontheleft—that'sMars.Butyoucangetasensefortherealscaleofthesolarsystem,howbigtheSunis,Jupiter,Neptune,Saturn,Uranus,andthenthelittleguysandontherightarePlutoandfriends.

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Thissortofhelpsseeit,notquitetoscale,butitgivesyouabettersenseforwherethingsare.Soouroptionsforgoingto...Forbecomingamulti-planetspecieswithinoursolarsystem,arelimited.

Wehave,intermsofnearbyoptions,we'vegotVenus.ButVenusisahighpressure...Asuper-high-pressurehotacidbath.Sothatwouldbeatrickyone.Venusisnotatalllikethegoddess.Thisisnot,innowaysimilarto,totheactualgoddess.Soit'dbereallydifficulttomakethingsworkonVenus.MercuryisalsowaytooclosetotheSun.WecouldgopotentiallyontooneofthemoonsofJupiter,orSaturn,butthosearequitefarout—muchfurtherfromtheSun.Alothardertogetto.

Itreallyleavesuswithoneoptionifwewanttobecomeamulti-planetcivilization,andthat'sMars.

Wecouldconceivablygotothemoon,andIhavenothingagainstgoingtothemoon,butIthinkit'schallengingtocreatea...Becomemulti-planetaryonthemoonbecauseit'smuchsmallerthanaplanet.Itdoesn'thaveanyatmosphere,it'snotasresource-richasMars,it'sgota28-dayday—whereastheMarsdayis24-and-a-halfhours.AndingeneralMarsisfarbettersuitedtoultimatelyscaleuptobeaself-sustainingcivilization.

Justtogivesomecomparisonbetweenthetwoplanets...They'reactuallyremarkablycloseinalotofways.AndinfactwenowbelievethatearlyMarswasalotlikeEarth.AndinfactifwecouldwarmMarsup,wewouldonceagainhaveathickatmosphereandliquidoceans.

Sowherethingsarerightnow,MarsisabouthalfagainasfarfromthesunasEarth.Sostilldecentsunlight.It'salittlecold,butwecanwarmitup.Andithasaveryhelpfulatmospherewhich,inthecaseofMars,beingprimarilyCO2withsomenitrogen,andargon,andfewothertraceelements,meansthatwecangrowplantsonMarsjustbycompressingtheatmosphere.Andithasnitrogen,too,whichisveryimportantforgrowingplants.

Itwouldbequitefunbecauseyouhavegravity,whichisabout37%thatofEarth,soyou'dbeabletoliftheavythingsandboundaroundandhavealotoffun.Andthedayisremarkably

Earth MarsDiameter 12,756km 6,792kmAveragedistancefromsun 150,000km 229,000kmTemperatureRange -88°Cto58°C -140°Cto30°CAtmosphericComposition 78%N2,21%O2,1%Other 96%CO2,<2%Ar,>2%OtherRelativegravity 1.0 0.37DayLength 24hours 24hours40minutesLandMass 148.9millionkm2 144.8millionkm2Population 7billion 0

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closetothatofEarth,andsowejustneedtochangethatbottomrow,becausecurrentlywehave7billionpeopleonearthandzeroonMars.

Sothere'sbeenalotofgreatworkbyNASAandotherorganizationsinearlyexplorationofMarsandunderstandingwhatMarsislike,wherecouldweland,what'sthecompositionoftheatmosphere,whereistherewater—waterice,Ishouldsay—andsoweneedtogofromtheseearlyexplorationmissionstoactuallybuildingacity.

TheissuethatwehavetodayisthatifyoulookataVenndiagram,there'snointersectionofsetsofpeoplewhowanttogoandcanaffordtogo.Infact,rightnow,youcannotgotoMarsforinfinitemoney.

Usingtraditionalmethods,youknowifyou'vetakenasortofApollo-styleapproach,anoptimisticclassnumberwouldbeabout$10billionaperson.Soforexample,intheApolloprogram,thecostestimatesaresomewherebetween$100to$200billionincurrent-yeardollars.Andwesent12peopletothesurfaceofmoon.Whichwasanincrediblethingandprobablyoneofthegreatestachievementsofhumanity.

Butthat'sasteeppricetopayforaticket.That'swhythesecirclesonlyjustbarelytouch.Soyoucan'tcreateaself-sustainingcivilizationiftheticketpriceis$10billionperperson.

Whatweneedistomovethosecirclestogether.

IfwecangetthecostofmovingtoMarstoberoughlyequivalenttoamedianhousepriceintheUS,whichisaround$200,000,thenIthinktheprobabilityofestablishingaself-sustainingcivilizationisveryhigh.Ithinkitwouldalmostcertainlyoccur.Noteveryonewouldwanttogo—infact,IthinkarelativelysmallnumberofpeoplefromEarthwouldwanttogo—butenoughwouldwanttogo,andwhocouldaffordthetrip,thatitwouldhappen.

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YoukeeplookingatsponsorshipandIthinkitgetsthepointwherealmostanyoneiftheysavedup,andthiswastheirgoal,theycouldultimatelysaveenoughmoneytobuyaticketandmovetoMars.AndMarswouldhavealaborshortageforalongtime,sojobswouldnotbeinshortsupply.

SoitisabittrickybecausewehavetofigureouthowtoimprovethecostoftripstoMarsby5,000,000%.Sothisisjustnoteasyand...Imean,itsoundslikevirtuallyimpossible,butIthinktherearewaysthroughit.

Thistranslatestoanimprovementofapproximatelyfour-and-a-halfordersofmagnitude.

FullRe-usabilityRefillinginOrbit

PropellantProductiononMarsRightPropellant

Thesearethekeyelementsthatareneededinordertoachieveafour-and-a-halforderofmagnitudeimprovement.Mostoftheimprovementwouldcomefromfullreusability,somewherebetweentwoandtwo-and-a-halfordersofmagnitude.Andthentheothertwoordersofmagnitudewouldcomefromrefillinginorbit,propellantproductiononMars,andchoosingtherightpropellant.

SoI'mgoingtogointodetailonallthose.

Fullreusabilityisreallythesuper-hardone.It'sverydifficulttoachievereusabilityforevenanorbitalsystem.Andthatchallengebecomessubstantiallygreaterforasystemthathastogotoanotherplanet.

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Butasanexampleofthedifferencebetweenreusabilityandexpendabilityinaircraft—andyoucouldactuallyuseanyformoftransport,youcouldsayacar,bicycle,horse—iftheyweresingle-use,almostnoonewouldusethem.They'dbetooexpensive.

Butwithfrequentflightsyoucantakesomethinglikeanaircraftthatcosts$90million,andifitweresingle-use,you'dhavetopayhalfamilliondollarsperflight.ButyoucanactuallybuyaticketonSouthwest,rightnow,fromLAtoVegas,for$43—includingtaxes.Sothat's,Imean,that'samassiveimprovementrightthere.It'sshowingafour-order-of-magnitudeimprovement.

Nowthisisharder.Thereusabilitydoesn'tapplyquiteasmuchtoMars,becausethenumberoftimesthatyoucouldreusethespaceship—thespaceshippartofthesystem—islessoftenbecausetheEarth-Marsrendezvousonlyoccursevery26months.

Soyougettousethespaceshippartroughlyevery2years.Nowyougettousetheboosterandthetankerasfrequentlyasyou'dlike,andthat'swhyitreallymakesalotofsensetoloadthespaceshipintoorbit,withessentiallytanksdry,haveithavereallyquitebigtanksthatyouthenusetheboosterandtankertorefillwhileit'sinorbit,andmaximizethepayloadofthespaceship,sothatwhenitgoestoMarsyoureallyhaveaverylargepayloadcapability.

Sorefillinginorbitisoneoftheessentialelementsofthis.

Notrefillinginorbitwouldrequirea3-stagevehicleat5-10xthesizeandcost

Spreadingtherequiredliftcapacityacrossmultiplelaunchessubstantiallyreduces

Developmentcostsandcompressesschedule

Combinedwithre-usability,refillingmakesperformanceshortfallsanincrementalrather

thananexponentialcostincrease

Withoutrefillinginorbit,youwouldhaveahalf-orderofmagnitudeimpact,roughly,onthecost.Byhalforderofmagnitude—Ithinkthisaudiencemostlyknows—butwhatthatmeansis,eachorderofmagnitudeisafactorof10.Sonotrefillinginorbitwouldmeana500%,roughly,increaseinthecostperticket.

Italsoallowsustobuildasmallervehicleandlowerthedevelopmentcosts,althoughthisisquitebig,butitwouldbemuchhardertobuildsomethingthat'sfiveto10timesthesize.Anditalsoreducesthesensitivityofperformancecharacteristicsoftheboosterrocketandtanker.

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Soifthere'sashortfallintheperformanceofanyoftheelements,youcanactuallymakeupforitbyhavingoneortwoextrarefillingtripstothespaceship.Sothisisveryimportantforreducingthesusceptibilityofthesystemtoaperformanceshortfall.

AndthenproducingpropellantonMarsisactuallyveryobviouslyimportant.

Againif,ifwedidn'tdothis,itwouldhaveatleastahalf-orderofmagnitudeincreaseinthecostofthetrip,soa500%increaseinthecostthetrip.

It'dbeprettyabsurdtotrytobuildthecityonMarsifyourspaceshipjustkeptstayingonMarsnotgoingbacktoEarth.You'dhavethislikemassivegraveyardofships.You'dhavetolikedosomethingwiththem.Soitreallywouldn'tmakesensetoleaveyourspaceshipsonMars.

YoureallywanttobuildapropellantplantonMarsandsendtheshipsback.AndMarshappenstoworkoutwellforthat,becauseithasaCO2atmosphere,it'sgotwatericeinthesoil,andwithH2OandCO2youcandoCH4methaneandoxygen,O2.

Pickingtherightpropellantisalsoimportant.

Thinkofthisasmaybethere'sthreemainchoices,andtheyhavetheirmerits.Butkeroseneorrocket-propellantgradekerosene,whichisalsowhatjetsuse—rocketsuseaveryexpensiveform,ahighlyrefinedformofjetfuel,essentially,whichisaformofkerosene.Ithelpskeepthevehiclesizesmall,butbecauseit'saveryspecializedformofjetfuel,it'squiteexpensive.Thereusabilitypotentialislower.VerydifficulttomakethisonMars,becausethere'snooil.So

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reallyquitedifficulttomakepropellantsonMars,andthenpropellanttransferisprettygoodbutnotgreat.

Hydrogen,althoughithasahighspecificimpulse,isveryexpensive.Incrediblydifficulttokeepfromboilingoff,becauseliquidhydrogenisveryclosetoabsolutezeroasaliquid.Sotheinsulationrequiredistremendous,andtheenergycostonMarsofproducingandstoringhydrogenisveryhigh.Sowelookattheoverallsystemoptimization,itwascleartousthatmethaneactuallywastheclearwinner.Soitwouldrequiremaybeanywherefrom50%to60%oftheenergyonMarstorefillthepropellants,usingapropellantdepot,andjustthetechnicalchallengesarealoteasier.

Sowethinkmethaneisactuallybetter,on,really,almostacrosstheboard.Andwestartedoffinitiallythinkingthathydrogenwouldmakesense,butwecametotheconclusionthatthebestwaytooptimizethecost-per-unitmasstoMarsandbackistouseanall-methanesystem,technicallyadeep-cryomethalox.

Sothosearethefourelementsthatneedtobeachieved.Sowhateverarchitecture,whateversystemisdesigned,whetherbySpaceXoranyone,wethinkthesearethefourfeaturesthatneedtobeaddressedinorderforthesystemtoreallyachievealowcostpertriptothesurfaceofMars.

Andthisisasimulationoftheoverallsystem.https://youtu.be/0qo78R_yYFA

Sowhatyousawthereisreallyquiteclosetowhatwewillactuallybuild.Itwilllookalmostexactlywhatyousaw,sothisisnotanartist'simpression.These...ThesimulationwasactuallymadefromthespaceengineeringCAD(computer-aideddesign)models.

Sothisisnot,youknow,it'snotjust"thisiswhatitmightlooklike,"thisiswhatweplantotryandmakeitlooklike.

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Sointhevideoyougotasenseforwhatthesystemarchitecturelooks.

Therocketboosterandthespaceshiptakeoff,loadsthespaceshipintoorbit.Therocketboosterthencomesback—itcomesbackquitequickly,withinabout20minutes—andsoitcanactuallylaunchthetankerversionofthespacecraft,whichisessentiallythesameasthespaceship,butfillinguptheunpressurizedandpressurizedcargoareaswithpropellanttanks.

Sotheylookalmostidentical,thisalsohelpslowerthedevelopmentcosts,whichabsolutelywillnotbesmall.Andthenthepropellanttankergoesup—anditwillactuallygoupmultipletimes,anywherefromthreetofivetimes—tofillthetanksofthespaceshipinorbit.Andthenoncethespaceshiptanksarefull,thecargohasbeentransferred,andwereachtheMarsrendezvoustiming,whichasImentionedisroughlyevery26months,that'swhentheshipwoulddepart.

Nowovertimetherewouldbemanyspaceships.Ultimately,Ithink,upwardsof1,000ormorespaceshipswaitinginorbit.AndsotheMarscolonialfleetwoulddepartenmasse,kindof"BattlestarGalactica"—ifyou'veseenthatthing,it'sagoodshow—soabitlikethat.Butitactuallymakessensetoloadthespaceshipsintoorbit,becauseyou'vegot2yearstodoso,andthenmakefrequentuseoftheboosterandthetankertogetreallyheavyreuseoutofthose.

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Andthenwiththespaceshipyougetlessreusebecauseyouhavesay,"well,howlongisitgoingtolast?"Well,maybe30years.Sothatmightbe12,maybe15flightsofthespaceship,atmost.Soyoureallywanttomaximizethecargoofthespaceshipandreusetheboosterandthetankeralot.SotheshipgoestoMars,getspropellantreplenished,andthenreturnstoEarth.

SoI'llgointosomeofthedetailsofthevehicledesignandperformance,andI’mgoingtoglossover—I'llonlytalkalittlebitaboutthetechnicaldetailsintheactualpresentation,andthenI’llleavethedetailedtechnicalquestionstotheQ&Athatfollows.

Thisistogiveusasenseofsize.It'squitebig.

AndthefunnythingisIthinkinthelongterm,theshipswillbeevenbiggerthanthis.Ithinkthatthiswillrepresent,thiswillberelativelysmallcomparedtotheMarsinterplanetaryshipsofthefuture.

Butitkindofneedstobeaboutthissize,becauseif,inordertofit100peoplethereaboutsinthepressurizedsection,pluscarrytheluggageandalloftheunpressurizedcargo—tobuildpropellantplantsandbuildeverythingfromironfoundries,topizzajoints,toyounameit—weneedtocarryalotofcargo.Soitreallyneedstoberoughlyonthisordermagnitude.Becauseifwesay,like,theminimumthresholdforself-sustainingcityonMarsorcivilizationwouldbeamillionpeople,well,andyoucanonlygoevery2years—ifyouhave100peoplepership,that's10,000trips.

SoIthinkatleast100peoplepertripistherightorderofmagnitude,andIthinkweactuallymayendupexpandingthecrewsectionandultimatelytakingmorelike200ormorepeopleperflightinordertoreducethecostperperson.So,10,000flightsisalotofflights,soyoureallywanttoultimatelythinkontheorderof1,000ships.

Itwilltakeawhiletobuildupto1,000ships.AndsoIthinkifyousay,whenwouldwereachthatmillion-personthreshold,fromthepointatwhichthefirstshipgoestoMars,it'sprobablysomewherebetween20to50totalMarsrendezvous.Soit'sprobablysomewherebetweenmaybe40to100yearstoachieveafullyself-sustainingcivilizationonMars.

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Sothat'sthesortofcross-sectionoftheship,andinsomewaysit'snotthatcomplicated,really.

It'smadeprimarilyofanadvancedcarbon-fiber.Thecarbon-fiberpartistrickywhendealingwithdeepcryogens,andtryingtoachievebothliquidandgasimpermeability,andnothavegapsoccurduetocrackingorpressurizationthatwouldmakethecarbonfiberleaky.Sothisisafairlysignificanttechnicalchallengetomakedeeplycryogenictanksoutofcarbonfiber,andit'sonlyrecentlythatwethinkthecarbonfibertechnologyhasgottentothepointwherewecanactuallydothiswithouthavingtocreatealiner—somesortofmetalliner,orotherliner,ontheinsideofthetanks,whichwouldaddmassandcomplexity.

It'sparticularlytrickyforthehot,gaseousoxygenpressurization.Sothisisdesignedtobeautogenouslypressurized,whichmeansthatthefuelandtheoxygen,wegassifythemthroughheatexchangersintheengine,andusethattopressurizethetanks.Sowe'llgassifythemethane,andusethattopressurizethefueltank.Gassifytheoxygen,usethattopressurizetheoxygentank.

Andthiscompares—thisisamuchsimplersystemthanwhatwehavewithFalcon9,whereweuseheliumforpressurization,andweusenitrogenforgasthrusters.Inthiscasewe'reautogenouslypressurized,andthenusegaseousmethaneandoxygenforthecontrolthrusters.

Soreallyyouonlyneedtwoingredientsforthis,asopposedtofour,inthecaseofFalcon9.Andactuallyfive,ifyouconsidertheignitionliquidweuse.It'ssortofacomplicatedliquidtoignitetheenginesthatisn'tveryreusable.Inthiscasewewouldusespark-ignition.

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Sothisgivesyouasenseofvehiclesbyperformance,socurrentandhistoric.Idon'tknowifyoucanactuallyreadthat,but:Inexpendablemodethevehiclethatwewereproposing,we'ddoabout550tons,andabout300tonsinreusablemode.ThatcomparestoSaturnV'smaxcapabilityof135tons.

ButIthinkthisreallygivesabettersenseofthings.

Thewhitebarsshowtheperformanceofthevehicle.Like,inotherwords,thepayload-to-orbitofthevehicle.Soyoucansee,essentially,whatitrepresentsis:Whatisthesizeefficiencyofthevehicle?Andmostrockets,includingours—oursthatarecurrentlyflying—theperformancebarisonlyasmallpercentageoftheactualsizeoftherocket.

Butwiththeinterplanetarysystem,whichwillinitiallybeusedforMars,we'vebeenableto—webelieve—massivelyimprovethedesignperformance.Soit'sthefirsttimearocket'ssortof"performancebar"willactuallyexceedthephysicalsizeoftherocket.

Thisgivesyouamoredirectsortofcomparison.

Thisis,thethrustisquiteenormous.We'retalkingaboutaliftoffthrustof13,000tons.Soitwillbequitetectonicwhenittakesoff.Butitdoesfitonpad39A,whichNASAhasbeenkindenoughtoallowustouse,wheretheysomewhatoversizedthepadindoingSaturnV.And,asaresult,wecanactuallydoamuchlargervehicleonthatsamelaunchpad.Andinthefutureweexpecttoaddadditionallaunchlocations,probablyaddingoneonthesouthcoastofTexas.

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Butthisgivesyouasenseoftherelativecapabilities,ifyoucanreadthose.Butthesevehicleshaveverydifferentpurposes.Thisisreallyintendedtocarryhugenumbersofpeople,ultimatelymillionsoftonsofcargotoMars.Soyoureallyneedsomethingquitelargeinordertodothat.

Totalkaboutsomeofthekeyelementsoftheinterplanetaryspaceshipandrocketbooster,wedecidedtostartoffthedevelopmentwithwhatwethinkareprobablythetwomostdifficultelementsofthedesign.

OneistheRaptorengine,andthisisgoingtobethehighestchamberpressureengineofanykindeverbuilt,andprobablythehighestthrust-to-weight.

It'safull-flow,stage-combustionengine,whichmaximizesthetheoreticalmomentumthatyoucangetoutofagivensourceoffuelandoxidizer.Wesub-cooltheoxygenandmethanetodensifyit.Socomparedtowhenpropellantsarenormallyused,they'reusedclosetotheirboilingpointsinmostrockets.

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Inourcaseweactuallyloadthepropellantsclosetotheirfreezingpoint,andthatcanresultinadensityimprovementofuptoaround10%to12%,whichmakesanenormousdifferenceintheactualresultsoftherocket.

Italsomakesthe—itgetsridofanycavitationriskfortheturbopumps,anditmakesiteasiertofeedahigh-pressureturbopumpifyouhaveverycoldpropellant.

Reallyoneofthekeyshere,though,isthevacuumversionofRaptorhavinga382-secondISP[specificimpulse].ThisisreallyquitecriticaltothewholeMarsmission,andwe'reconfidentwecangettothatnumber,oratleastwithinafewsecondsofthatnumber,ultimatelymaybeexceedingitslightly.

Therocketbooster,inmanyways,isreallyascaled-upversionoftheFalcon9booster.

You'llseealotofsimilarities,suchasthegridfins,obviouslyclusteringalotofenginesatthebase,andthebigdifferencereallybeingthattheprimarystructureisanadvancedforma

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carbon-fiber,asopposedtoaluminum-lithium.Andthatweuseautogenouspressurization,andwegetridoftheheliumandthenitrogen.

So,thisuses42Raptorengines.It'salotofengines,butweusenineonaFalcon9,andwithFalconHeavy,whichshouldlaunchearlynextyear,there's27enginesonthebase.Sowe'vegotprettygoodexperiencewithhavingalargenumberofengines.Italsogivesusredundancy,sothatifsomeoftheenginesfail,youcanstillcontinuethemissionandbefine.

Butthemainjoboftheboosteristoacceleratethespaceshiptoaround8,500kilometersanhour.Forthosethataren'tasfamiliarwithorbitaldynamics,reallyit'sallaboutvelocityandnotaboutheight.Soreallythat'sthejoboftheboosters.Thebooster'slikethejavelinthrower—soit'sgottatossthatjavelin,whichisthespaceship.Inthecaseofotherplanets,though,whichhaveagravitywellthatisnotasdeep.SoMars,themoonsofJupiter,seeifwewenttomaybeevenVenus—Venuswillbealittletrickier—butformostofthesolarsystem,youonlyneedthespaceship.

Youdon'tneedtheboosterifyouhavealowergravitywells.SonoboosterisneededonthemoonorMarsoranyothermoonsofJupiterorPluto.Youjustneedthespaceship.Theboosterisjustthereforheavygravitywells.

Andthenwe'vealsobeenabletooptimizethepropellantneededforboost-backandlanding,togetitdowntoabout7%,oftheliftoffpropellantload,andwethinkwithsomeoptimizationwecangetdowntoabout6%.

Andwe'realsogettingquitecomfortablewiththeaccuracyofthelanding.Ifyou'vebeenwatchingtheFalcon9landings,you'llseethatthey'regettingincreasinglyclosertothebull’s-

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eye.Andwethink,particularlywiththeadditionofsomethrusters,maneuveringthrusters,wecanactuallyputtheboosterrightbackonthelaunchstand.Andthenthosefinsatthebaseareessentiallycenteringfeaturestotakeoutanyminorpositionmismatchatthelaunchsite.

Sothisiswhatitlookslikeatthebasesowethinkweonlyneedtogimbalorsteerthecenterclusterofengines.

Sothere'ssevenenginesinthecentercluster,thosewouldbetheonesthatthatmove,forsteeringtherocket,andtheotheroneswouldbefixedinposition,whichgivesusthebestconcentrationof—wecanmaxoutthenumberofenginesbecausewedon'thavetoleaveanyroomforgimbalingormovingtheengine.

Andthisisalldesignedsothatyoucouldactuallylosemultipleengines,evenatliftofforanywhereinflight,andcontinuethemissionsafely.

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Soforthespaceshipitself,inthetopwehavethepressurizedcompartment—andI’llshowyouafly-throughofthatinamoment—andbeneaththatiswherewewouldhavetheunpressurizedcargo,whichwillbereallyflat-packed,inaverydenseformat.Andbelowthatistheliquidoxygentank.

Theliquidoxygentankisprobablythehardestpieceofthiswholevehiclebecauseit'sgottahandlepropellantatthecoldestlevel,andthetanksthemselvesactuallyformtheairframe.Sothattheairframestructureandthetankstructurearecombined,asitisinallmodernrockets,andinanaircraft.Forexample,thewingisreallyafueltankinwingshape.Soithastotakethethrustloadsofascent,theloadsofre-entry,andthenithastobeimpermeabletogaseousoxygen,whichistricky,andnon-reactivetogaseousoxygen.

Sothat'sthehardestpieceofthespaceshipitself,whichisactuallywhywestartedonthatelement.Iwillshowyousomepicturesofthatlater.

Andthenbelowtheoxygentankisthefueltank,andthentheenginesaremounteddirectlytothethrustconeonthebase.Andthentherearesixofthevacuum,thehigh-efficiencyvacuumenginesaroundtheperimeter,andthosedon'tgimbal.Andthentherearethreeofthesea-levelversionsoftheengine,whichdogimbalandprovidethesteering.Althoughwecandosomeamountofsteering,ifyou'reinspace,withdifferentialthrustontheoutsideengines.

Theneteffectisacargo-to-Marsofupto450tons,dependinguponhowmanyrefillsyoudowiththetanker.Thegoalisatleast100passengerspership,althoughIthinkultimatelywe'llprobablyseethatnumbergoto200ormore.

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Thischart'salittledifficulttointerpretatfirst,butIkindofdecidedtoputitthereforpeoplewhowantedtowatchthevideoafterwardsandsortoftakeacloserlook,analyzesomeofthenumbers.

Thecolumnontheleftisprobablywhat'smostrelevant,andthatgivesyouthetriptime.

SodependinguponwhichEarth-Marsrendezvousyou'reaimingfor,thetriptimeatsixkilometerspersecond,departurevelocity,canbeaslowas80days.Andthen,overtime,Ithinkwe'dobviouslyimprovethat,andultimatelyIsuspectthatyou'dseeMarstransittimesofaslittleas30daysinthemoredistantfuture.

Soit'sfairlymanageable,consideringthetripsthatpeopleusedtointheolddays.They'droutinelytakesailingvoyagesthatwouldbe6monthsormore.

Soonarrivaltheheatshieldtechnologyisextremelyimportant.

We'vebeenrefiningtheheat-shieldtechnologyusingourDragonspacecraft,andwe'renowonversionthreeofPICA,whichis"phenolicimpregnatedcarbonablator,"andit'sgettingmoreandmorerobustwitheachnewversion,withlessablation,moreresistance,lessneedforrefurbishment.

Theheatshield'sbasicallyagiantbrakepad.Soit'slike,howgoodcanyoumakethatbrakepadagainstextremereentryconditions,andminimizethecostofrefurbishment.Andmakeitsothatyoucouldhavemanyflightswithnorefurbishmentatall.

Thisisafly-throughofthecrewcompartment.Justwanttogiveyouasenseofwhatitwouldfeelliketoactuallybeinthespaceship.(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC0c5tFmltQ)

Imean,inordertomakeitappealing,andincreasethatportionoftheVenndiagramofpeopleactuallywantingtogo,it'sgottabereallyfunandexcitinganditcan'tfeelcrampedorboring.

Sothecrewcompartmentortheoccupantcompartment,issetupsothatyoucandozero-ggames,youcanfloataround,there'llbelikemovies,lecturehalls,youknow,cabins,arestaurant—itwillbe,like,reallyfuntogo.You'regonnahaveagreattime.

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SothatpropellantplantonMars.

Again,thisisoneoftheslidesthatIwon'tgointodetailhere,butpeoplecanthinkaboutoffline.

ThekeypointbeingthattheingredientsarethereonMarstocreateapropellantplantwithrelativeease,becausetheatmosphereisprimarilyCO2,andthere'swatericealmosteverywhere.You'vegottheCO2plusH2Otomakemethane,CH4,andoxygenO2,usingtheSebatierreaction. ThereareeffectivelyunlimitedsuppliesofcarbondioxideandwateronMars;5millioncubickmice,25trillionmetrictonsCO2.Thetrickiestthing,really,istheenergysource,whichwethinkwecandowithalargefieldofsolarpanels. BOOSTER TANKER SHIPFABRICATIONCOST $230M $130M $200MLIFETIMELANCHES 1,000 100 12AMORTIZEDFABRICATIONCOST/LAUNCH $0.23M $1.3M $16.7MLANCHESPERMARSTRIP 6 5 1AVERAGEMAINTENANCECOSTPERUSE $0.2M $0.5M $10MLAUNCHCOST $0.2M COSTOFPROPELLANT($168/t)PERLAUNCH $0.7M ESTIMATEDTOTALCOSTPERMARSTRIP $11M $8M $43MCARGODELIVEREDTOMARSPERTRIPFOR$62M 450T COST/TONDELIVEREDTOMARS $140K Sothentogiveyouasenseofthecost,reallythekeyismakingthisaffordabletoalmostanyonewhowantstogo.Andwethink,basedonthisarchitecture,assumingoptimizationovertime,

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like,theveryfirstflightswouldbefairlyexpensive—butthearchitectureallowsforacost-per-ticketoflessthan$200,000,maybeaslittleas$100,000overtime,dependinguponhowmuchmassapersontakes.

Sowe're,rightnow,estimatingabout$140,000pertontothesurfaceofMars.Soifapersonplustheirluggageislessthanthat,takingintoaccountfoodconsumptionandlife-support,thenwethinkthatthecostofmovingtoMarscoulddropbelow$100,000.So,funding.We'vethoughtaboutfundingsources.Andsoit'sstealunderpants,launchsatellites,sendcargotospacestation,Kickstarter—ofcourse—followedbyprofit.Soobviouslyit'sgoingtobeachallengetofundthiswholeendeavor.

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WedoexpecttogenerateprettydecentnetcashflowfromlaunchinglotsofsatellitesandservicingthespacestationforNASA,transferringcargotoandfromthespacestation,andthenIknowthatthere'salotofpeopleintheprivatesectorwhoareinterestedinhelpingfundabaseonMars.Andthenperhapsthere'llbeinterestfromthegovernmentsectorsidetoalsodothat.Ultimatelythisisgoingtobeahugepublic-privatepartnership,andIthinkthat'showtheUnitedStatesisestablished,andinmanyothercountriesaroundtheworld—isapublic-privatepartnership.SoIthinkthat'sprobablywhatoccurs,andrightnowwe'rejusttryingtomakeasmuchprogressaswecanwiththeresourcesthatwehaveavailable,andjustsortofkeepmovingbothforward,andhopefullyIthink,asweshowthatthisispossible,thatthisdreamisreal,notjustadream—it'ssomethingthatcanbemadereal—Ithinkthesupportwillsnowballovertime.AndIshouldsayalsothatthemainreasonI’mpersonallyaccumulatingassetsisinordertofundthis.SoIreallydon'thaveanyothermotivationforpersonallyaccumulatingassets,excepttobeabletomakethebiggestcontributionIcantomakinglifemulti-planetary.

Timelines.I'mnotthebestatthissortofthing.

Butjusttoshowyouwherewestartedoff,in2002SpaceXbasicallyconsistedofcarpetandamariachiband.Thatwasit.That'sallofSpaceXin2002.AsyoucanseeI'madancingmachine,andyeahIbelieveinkickingoffcelebratoryeventswithmariachibands.Ireallylikemariachibands.

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Butthatwaswhatwestartedoffwithin2002,andreally,Ithoughtmaybewehada10%percentchanceofdoinganything—ofevengettingarockettoorbit,letalonegettingbeyondthatandtakingMarsseriously.

ButIcametotheconclusionthatiftherewasn'tsomenewentrantintothespacearenawithastrongideologicalmotivation,thenitdidn'tseemlikewewereonatrajectorytoeverbeaspace-faringcivilizationandbeoutthereamongthestars.Becausein'69wewereabletogotothemoon,andthespaceshuttlecouldgettolow-earthorbit,andthenobviouslythespaceshuttlegotretired,butthattrendlineisdowntozero.

SoIthinkwhatalotofpeopledon'tappreciateisthattechnologydoesnotautomaticallyimprove.Itonlyimprovesifalotofreallystrongengineeringtalentisappliedtotheproblemthatitimproves.Andtherearemanyexamplesinhistorywherecivilizationshavereachedacertaintechnologylevel,andthenhavefallenwellbelowthatandthenrecoveredonlymillennialater.

FirstFlightattempt,NASAcargotransportpartnership.

Falcon10.5ttoLowEarthOrbit.FirstNASAcontract.

Falcon9-10TonstoLEO.Dragonspacecrafttoorbitandback.

Dragonspacecraftdeliversandreturnscargofromspacestation.

Grasshoppertestrigdemonstratesverticaltake-offandlanding.Falcon9–13tonstoLEO

Firstorbitalboostertoreturnfromspaceforoceanlanding.

Firstorbitalboostertoreturnfromspaceandlandonland.Falcon9–22.8tonstoLEO

Firstdroneshiplandingfororbitalboosters.

Sowegofrom2002,wherewe'rebasicallyclueless,andthenwithFalcon1—thesmallestusefulorbitalrocketthatwecouldthinkof,whichwoulddeliverhalfatontoorbit.Andthen4yearslaterwedeveloped,webuiltthefirstvehicle.

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Sowedevelopedthemainengine,theupper-stageengine,theairframes,thefairing,andthelaunchsystem,andhadourfirstattemptatlaunchin2006,whichfailed.So,thatlastedabout60seconds,unfortunately.

Butitwas2006,4yearsafterstarting,whichisalsowhenweactuallygotourfirstNASAcontract.AndIjustwanttosaythatI'mincrediblygratefultoNASAforsupportingSpaceX,despitethefactthatourrocketcrashed.Itwasawesome,I'mNASA'sbiggestfan—so“thankyouverymuch”tothepeoplethathadthefaithtodothat.

Sothen2006,followedbyalotofgrief,andthenfinallythefourthlaunchofFalcon1workedin2008.Andwewerereallydowntoourlastpennies.Infact,IonlythoughtIhadenoughmoneyforthreelaunches,andthefirstthreebloodyfailed,andwewereabletoscrapetogetherenoughtojustbarelymakeitintoafourthlaunch,andthat—thankgoodness—thatfourthlaunchsucceededin2008.

Thatwasalotofpain.

Andthenalsoattheendof2008iswhenNASAawardedusthefirstmajoroperationalcontract,whichwasforresupplyingcargotothespacestationandbringingcargoback.ThenacoupleofyearslaterwedidthefirstlaunchofFalcon9,version1,andthathadabouta10-ton-to-orbitcapability,soitwasabout20timesthecapabilityofFalcon1,andalsoassignedtocarryourDragonspacecraft.

Then2010isourfirstmissiontothespacestation,sowewereabletofinishdevelopmentofDragonanddockwiththespacestationin2010.Sorry—2010isexpendableDragon,2012iswhenwedeliveredandreturnedcargofromthespacestation.

2013iswhenwefirststarteddoingverticaltakeoffandlandingtests.

And2014iswhenwewereabletohavethefirstorbitalboosterdoasoftlandingintheocean.Thelandingwassoft,thenitfelloverandexploded,butthelanding—for7seconds—itwasgood.Andwealsoimprovedthecapabilityofthevehiclefrom10tonstoabout13tonstoLEO(LowEarthorbit).

Andthen2015,lastyearinDecember,thatwasdefinitelyoneofthebestmomentsofmylife:whentherocketboostercamebackandlandedatCapeCanaveral.Thatwasreally...yeah.

SoIthinkthatreallyshowedwecouldbringanorbit-classboosterbackfromaveryhighvelocity,allthewaytothelaunchsite,andlanditsafely,andwithalmostnorefurbishmentrequiredforre-flight.Andifthingsgowell,wearehopingtore-flyoneofthelandedboostersinafewmonths.

So,yeah,andthen2016wealsodemonstratedlandingonaship.Thelandingontheshipisveryimportantforveryhigh-velocitygeosynchronousmissions,andthat'simportantforreusability

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ofFalcon9becauseroughlyaquarterofourmissionsaresortofservicingthespacestation,andthenthere'safewotherlow-Earthorbitmissions.Butmostofourmissions—probably60%ofourmissions—arecommercialgeo[geosynchronous]missions.Sowe'vegottodothesehigh-velocitymissionsthatreallyneedtolandontheshipouttosea.Theydon'thaveenoughpropellantonboardtoboostbacktothelaunchsite.

Solookingatthefuture,nextsteps.

Wewerekindofintentionallyabitfuzzyaboutthistimeline.Butthe...We'regoingtotrytomakeasmuchprogressaswecan,obviouslyit'saveryconstrainedbudget,butwe'regoingtotrytomakeasmuchprogressaswecanontheelementsoftheinterplanetarytransportboosterandspaceship.Andhopefullywe'llbeabletodo,tocompletethefirstdevelopmentspaceshipinmaybeabout4years,andstartdoingsuborbitalflightswiththat.

Infact,itactuallyhasenoughcapabilitythatyoucouldmaybeevengotoorbitifyoulimittheamountofcargowiththespaceship.Butyouhavetoreally,justhavetoreallystripitdown.Butintankerformitcandefinitelygettoorbit.Itcan'tgetback,butwecangettoorbit.

Actually,Iwassortofthinking,like,maybethereissomesortofmarketforreallyfasttransportofstuffaroundtheworld,providedwecanlandsomewherewherenoiseisnotasuper-bigdeal—rocketsareverynoisy—butwecouldtransportcargotoanywhereonearthin45minutes,atthelongest.SomostplacesonEarthwouldbemaybe20,25minutes.SomaybeifwehadafloatingplatformoutoffthecoastoftheUSA,offthecoastofNewYork,say20or30milesout,youcouldgofrom,youknow,fromNewYorktoTokyoin—Idon'tknow—25minutes.CrosstheAtlanticin10minutes.Really,mostofyourtimewouldbegettingtotheship.Andthenit'dberealquickafterthat.

Sothere'ssomeintriguingpossibilitiesthere,althoughwe'renotcountingonthat.

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Andthendevelopmentofthebooster.Andactuallytheboosterpartisrelativelystraightforward,becauseitamountstoascaling-upoftheFalcon9booster.Sothere's,wedon'tseealotofshowstoppersthere.Soyeah.

ButthentryingtoputitalltogetherandmakethisactuallyworkforMars.Ifthingsgosuper-well,itmightbekindofinthe10-yeartimeframe.ButIdon'twannasaythat'swhenitwilloccur,there'sahugeamountofrisk,it'sgoingtocostalot,goodchancewewon'tsucceed,butwe'regoingtodoourbest,andwe'regoingtrytomakeasmuchprogressaspossible.

Ohandwe'regonnatrytosendsomethingtoMarsoneveryMarsrendezvousfromhereonout.SoDragon2,whichisapropulsivelander,weplantosendtoMarsinacoupleyears.AndthendoprobablyanotherDragonmissionin2020.

Infact,wewanttoestablishasteadycadence—thatthere'salwaysaflightleaving,likeatrainleavingthestation.WitheveryMarsrendezvouswewillbesendingaDragon—atleastaDragontoMars,andultimatelythebigspaceship—soiftherearepeoplethatareinterestedinputtingpayloadsonDragon,youknowyoucancountonashipthat'sgoingtotransportsomethingontheorderofatleast2or3tonsofusefulpayloadtothesurfaceofMars.

Yes,that'spartofthereasonwhywedesignedDragon2tobeapropulsivelander.

Asapropulsivelander,youcangoanywhereinthesolarsystem.Soyoucouldgotothemoon,youcouldgoto...Well,anywhere,really.Whereasifsomethingreliesonparachutesorwings,thenyoucanprettymuchonly—wellifit'swings,youcanprettymuchonlylandonEarth,becauseyouneedarunway,andmostplacesdon'thavearunway.Andthenanyplacethatdoesn'thaveadenseatmosphere,youcan'tuseparachutes.

Butpropulsiveworksanywhere.SoDragonshouldbecapableoflandingonanysolidorliquidsurfaceintheinnersolarsystem.

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AndthenIwasrealexcitedtoseethattheteammanagedtodothe,allofourRaptorenginefiring,inadvanceofthisconference.IjustwanttosaythankstotheRaptorteamforreallyworking7daysaweektotrytogetthisdoneinadvanceofthepresentation,becauseIreallywanttoshowthatwe'vemadesomehardwareprogressinthisdirection,andtheRaptorsarereallytrickyengines.

It'salottrickierthantheMerlin,becauseit'safull-flowstagecombustion—muchhigherpressure.I'mkindofamazeditdidn'tblowuponthefirstfiring,butfortunatelyitwasgood.

Yeah.It'skindofinterestingtoseethe“mockdiamonds”forming.

Sothe...Partofthereasonformakingenginessmall...Raptor,althoughithasthreetimesthethrustofaMerlin,isactuallyonlyaboutthesamesizeastheMerlinengine,becauseithasthreetimestheoperatingpressure.Andthatmeanswecanusealotoftheproductiontechniquesthatwe'vehonedwithMerlin.

We'recurrentlyproducingMerlinenginesatalmost300peryear.Soweunderstandhowtomakerocketenginesinvolume,soeventhoughthelaunchvehicleuses42onthebaseandnineontheupperstage—sowehave51enginestomake—that'swellwithinourproductioncapabilitiesforMerlin,andthisisasimilarlysizedenginetoMerlin,exceptfortheexpansionratio,sowefeelreallycomfortableaboutbeingabletomakethisengineinvolumeatapricethatdoesn'tbreakourbudget.

Andthenwealsowantedtomakeprogressontheprimarystructure,soasImentionedthisisreally...averydifficultthingtomake.Istomakesomethingoutofcarbonfiber.

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Eventhoughcarbonfiberhasincrediblestrength-to-weight,whenyouwantoneofthemputsuper-coldliquidoxygenandliquidmethane—particularlyliquidoxygen—inthetank,it'ssubjecttocrackingandleakingandit'saverydifficultthingtomake.

Justthesheerscaleofitisalsochallenging,becauseyou'vegottalayoutthecarbonfiberinexactlytherightwayonahugemold,andyou'vegottacurethatmoldattemperature,andthenit's...justreallyhardtomakelargecarbon-fiberstructuresthatcandoallofthosethingsandcarryincredibleloads.

Sothat'stheotherthingwewantedtofocuson,wastheRaptor,andthenbuildingthefirstdevelopmenttankfortheMarsspaceship.

Sothisisreallythehardestpartofthespaceship.Theotherpiecesare,wehaveaprettygoodhandleon,butthiswasthetrickiestone.Sowewantedtotackleitfirst.Yougetasenseforhowbigthetankis.It'sreallyquitebig.

Also,bigcongratulationstotheteamthatworkedonthat—theywerealsoworkingsevendaysaweektotrytogetthisdoneinadvanceoftheIAC.

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Andsowemanagedtobuildthefirsttankandinitialtestswiththecryogenicpropellantactuallylookquitepositive.Wehavenotseenanyleaksormajorissues.

Thisiswhatthetanklookslikeontheinside.

Soyoucangetarealsenseforhowmuch,justhowbigthistankis.It'sactuallycompletelysmoothontheinside,butthewaythatthecarbon-fiberplysreflectthelightmakesitlookfaceted.

SowhataboutbeyondMars?

Soaswethoughtaboutthissystem,andthereasonwecallitasystem—becausegenerallyIdon'tlikecallingthingssystems,becauseeverything'sasystem,includingyourdog—isthatit'sactuallymorethanavehicle.There'sthisrocketbooster,thespaceship,thetanker,andthepropellantplant,theinsitupropellantproduction.

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Ifyouhaveallofthosefourelements,youcanactuallygoanywhereinthesolarsystembyplanet-hoppingorbymoon-hopping.

SobyestablishingapropellantdepotintheAsteroidBelt,orononeofthemoonsofJupiter,youcango,youcanmakeflightsfromMarstoJupiter—noproblem.

Infact,evenfrom,evenwithoutapropellantdepotatMars,youcoulddoaflybyofJupiterwithoutapropellantdepot.

Butbyestablishingapropellantdepot,let'ssay,youknow,EnceladusorEuropa,orany—there'safewoptions—andthendoinganotheroneonTitan,Saturn'smoon,andthenperhapsanotheronefurtheroutonPluto,orelsewhereinthesolarsystem...

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Thissystemreallygivesyoufreedomtogoanywhereyouwantinthegreatersolarsystem.SoyoucouldactuallytravelouttotheKuiperBelt,theOortCloud.

Iwouldn'trecommendthisforinterstellarjourneys,butthisbasicsystem—providedwehavefillingstationsalongtheway—is,meansfullaccesstotheentiregreatersolarsystem.It'dbereallygreattodoamissiontoEuropa,particularly.

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Alrightso,anyquestionsthatIcananswer?