election process nomination campaigns invisible primary initial contests mist clearing the national...

Election Process

Nomination Campaigns

Invisible Primary

Initial Contests

Mist Clearing

The National

Convention

National Election

Invisible Primary

Initial Contest

Mist Clearing

Party Convention

National Campaign/

Election

Primary Election

1) Invisible Primary

The period of time between the election of one president and the first contest to nominate candidates to run in the general election to select the next president.

Indicators:

Money

Standing in the polls

Endorsements of key party members

Democratic Invisible Primary 2008

Oprah Endorsement

Republican Invisible Primary 2008

Pakistani Prime Minister Assassinated

Republican Invisible Primary 2012

First Debates

Freddie Mac

2) Initial Contest

Iowa Caucuses & New Hampshire Primary

40 out of 2,286 delegates (for GOP)

Demographic looks nothing like the nation as a whole

Publicity, break out of the pack, establish momentum

Not about finishing first.

2012 GOP Iowa Caucus delegate distribution: Ron Paul (21), Rick Santorum (1), Romney (0)

3) Mist Clearing

Begins after the first two contests and continues through the primary schedule. It is characterized by a reduction of uncertainty as weaker candidates drop out.

Super Tuesday

The day in early March when several states hold their primaries. These states choose a significant portion of delegates to the national convention.

Frontloading

Frontloading

2008 Democrat Mist Clearing

2008 Republican Mist Clearing

2012 Republican Mist Clearing

4) The National Convention

Both major parties nominate their candidates for president and vice president in national party conventions composed of delegates from the states.

4) The National Convention

Five major functions:

1. Officially nominate the party’s president and vice president candidate.

2. Approve a platform for the nominees to run on.

3. Encourage unification between party factions and losing candidates.

4. Showcase the party and candidates on a national stage.

5. Adopt rules and regulations to govern the party at the convention and in the interim between elections.

Can we predict who will win the nomination?

The candidate who is the leader in money raised, public opinion polling, and the leader in endorsements of party insiders on the eve of the Iowa caucuses are all good indicators of the invisible primary winner.

Electoral College

The electoral college is the institution responsible for selecting the president.

How the Electoral College Works:The Constitution calls for each state legislature to choose a number of electors equal to its total number of senators and House members.

The total number of electoral votes is 538.

100 senators + 435 House members + 3 votes for the District of Columbia.

Electoral College

The electors meet in their respective states in December and cast separate votes for president and vice president. These votes are transmitted to the nation’s capital to be opened and counted in a joint session of Congress in January.

Magic number: 270

Bush – 271 (50,456,002)Gore – 266 (50,999,987)

National Election

Strategy and money are important components of a successful presidential campaign.

Campaign efforts are focused on states with a lot of electoral college votes and swing states.

Most states do not get visited by presidential candidates.

Campaigns are also constrained by FEC rules about fundraising.