edat 17 december 2014 local demographic trends – an older and ageing population andy cornelius...

EDAT17 December 2014

Local demographic trends –An older and ageing population

Andy CorneliusCorporate Research & Consultation Team

Presentation structure1. The ‘current’ position• Age structure / differences across district• Characteristics of our older population

2. The future – according to ONS• What the latest official population projections are showing

Part 1: The current situation• What the census and other local data tells us…

Total population…

262,800Usual residents

Latest estimate (2013) = 269,100 (+6,300)

Broad age structure (2011)…

…Compared to national average…

Age

Age 20-30 yrs-2% average

Age 40-50 yrs+1% average

Age 13-18 yrs+0.5% average

Age

Age 20-30 yrs-2% average

Age 40-50 yrs+1% average

Age 13-18 yrs+0.5% average

65yrs +

Age

South GloucestershireTotal pop: 262.8KMedian age: 40% 65yrs+ : 17%

Age

Alveston (parish)Total pop: 3,000Median age: 51% 65yrs+ : 30%

Age

Bradley Stoke (parish)Total pop: 21,000Median age: 32% 65yrs + : 5%

Age

Some characteristics of our older population…• Accommodation and living arrangements• Health and care

Accommodation and living arrangements…

Accommodation…

97% Of people aged 65yrs+ live in households

Living arrangements…44,400

% p

opul

ation

Age

Living arrangements…44,400

% p

opul

ation

Age

20,400

Living arrangements…

12,300 people aged 65+ live alone

QS110EW

Living arrangements…

11.4% of houses* are occupied by a single

person aged 65+QS110EW & KS401EW *household spaces

% households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs (older lone person HH)

QS110EW & KS401EW

% h

ouse

hold

s

Ward

% households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs

QS110EW & KS401EW

17.3%

2.6%

% h

ouse

hold

s

Ward

Health & care….

Health & care….• The likelihood of being disabled and receiving care increases with age …..

Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)

Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)

Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)

Carers….

27,639 Residents provide unpaid care* for someone - 10.5% of total population

(national average 10.3%)* Help or support to family members, friends, neighbours or others because of either:

Long-term physical or mental ill-health / disability?Problems relating to old age?

% to

tal p

opul

ation

Part 2: Looking forward…• What the latest official (ONS) population projections suggest….

ONS Sub-National Population Projections (SNPPs)

• Produced by ONS every two years

• Long term (25yr horizon)

• Official government population projections for local authority areas

• Used for wide range of purposes

• ‘Policy-off’ projections - based on recent trends in• Births• Deaths• Migration

2012 SNPPs for South Gloucestershire….

Total population change….

Pop

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

2012

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

2012

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

2012

2037Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037

Popu

latio

n

Year

2037

2012

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

(+20%)

2037

2012

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

By local authority…..

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

East Midlands East London N E North West South East South West West Mid. York & Humber

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

City of London (+45%)

Isles of Scilly (- 13%)

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+20%)52.3k

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+20%)52.3kNorth Som.

(+24%)+48.6k

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+20%)52.3kBristol

(+22%)+95.6k

North Som. (+24%)+48.6k

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+20%)52.3kBristol

(+22%)+95.6k

North Som. (+24%)+48.6k

BANES. (+12%)+21.5K

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

218,000 more people living in the West of England by 2037

There will be:

Population aged 65+…

Total population change (%) – 2012-37

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

Milton Keynes (+129%)

Isle of Scilly (+0%)

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+69%)32.0k

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+69%)32.0k

North Som. (+71%)+31.8k

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+69%)32.0k

North Som. (+71%)+31.8k

BANES. (+53%)+17.3K

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – 2012-37

South Glos. (+69%)32.0k

Bristol (+49%)+27.9k

North Som. (+71%)+31.8k

BANES. (+53%)+17.3K

101,000 more people aged 65yrs + living in the West of England by 2037

There will be:

What’s projected to drive population change…

What’s projected to drive population change…

• Components of change• Natural Change

• Births minus deaths

• Migration• International• Internal (to and from other areas of England)• Cross-border (to and from other countries in UK – Wales, Scotland, N. Ireland)

For South Gloucestershire (total population)….

(+20%)

2037

2012

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

(+20%)

2037

2012

Population trends – South Gloucestershire 1981-2037Po

pula

tion

Year

Total annual population increase (net)+

pers

ons

per y

ear

Year

2,300 PA

+ pe

rson

s pe

r yea

r

Year

Total annual population increase (net)

2,300 PA

1,900 PA

+ pe

rson

s pe

r yea

r

Year

Total annual population increase (net)

+ pe

rson

s pe

r yea

r

Year

Total annual population increase (net)

Natural change (Births – deaths)+

pers

ons

per y

ear

Year

Migration: International migration+

pers

ons

per y

ear

Year

Migration: Cross-border flows (moves to / from other UK countries)+

pers

ons

per y

ear

Year

Migration: Internal (moves to / from English LAs)+

pers

ons

per y

ear

Year

Total annual (net) change+

pers

ons

per y

ear

Year

Changes in age structure (South Glos.)….

Changes in age structure (South Glos.)….• 25 years ago (1987)

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

213,700Po

pula

tion

Age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

12% 21%

67%

213,700Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

12% 21%

67%

TDR: 47% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 47 ‘dependents’)

213,700Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

18% 19%

64%

TDR: 57% (Eng.56%)

266,100Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 57%

266,100Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 58%

268,600Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 58%

271,000Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 56%

273,300Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 59%

275,600Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 60%

277,800Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 61%

280,100Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 62%

282,400Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 62%

284,600Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 63%

286,800Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 64%

289,000Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 64%

291,200Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 65%

293,400Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 65%

295,600Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 66%

297,800Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 67%

299,900Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 68%

301,900Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 69%

303,900Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 69%

305,900Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 70%

307,800Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 71%

309,600Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 72%

311,400Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 72%

313,200Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 73%

315,000Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 73%

316,700Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

TDR: 74% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 74 ‘dependents’) Eng.72%

318,400Po

pula

tion

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

318,400Po

pula

tion

Age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

2037

2012

Popu

latio

n

Age

+6,400 (+12.9%)

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

2037

2012

Popu

latio

n

Age

+13,800(+8.1%)

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

2037

2012

Popu

latio

n

Age

+32,000(+68.7%)

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

2037

2012

Popu

latio

n

Age

Older people80+ yrs.

+15,200(+126%)

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

2037

2012

Popu

latio

n

Age

Children0-15 yrs.

Working aged16-64 yrs.

Older people65+ yrs.

2037 TDR: 74%England: 72%

2012 TDR: 57%England: 56%

Popu

latio

n

Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

An update…

2013 MYE:

2013 MYE:

269,100

2013 MYE:

269,100(+3,000 on 266,100)

Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs

Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs

+500

+2,100 PA

Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs

Limitations of ONS population projections…• Only available at local authority level

• All ONS population projections are ‘policy off’

• No assumptions for future levels of housing development

In summary…• By 2037, South Glos’ population projected to rise to 318.4k (+52K / +20%)

• Higher rate of growth than national average but lower than (long-term) historic growth

• Drivers of population change: • Natural change + internal migration are projected to be the largest components of change

• Age structural changes:• Flatter population structure projected in 2037 • 32k more residents 65+yrs • 15.2K more residents 80+yrs • Dependency ratio projected to rise from 57% to 74%

• Official population projections are generally plausible, but, • More recent (2013 MYE’s suggest actual growth is higher than projected) – economic recovery? :

• Official projections ‘policy off’

Conclusion

• An ageing population will have implications for all council services

• Issues are not unique to South Gloucestershire• Projected changes broadly in-line with national averages

• Changes will be gradual • But we should start to plan for them now