ecosystem services and futures thinking: two brave initiatives barney foran steve cork stuart...

Ecosystem Services and Futures Thinking: Two Brave InitiativesBarney ForanSteve CorkStuart PearsonJason Alexandra

Ecosystem services“Benefits people get from nature”

LIFE ON EARTH - BIODIVERSITY

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Provisioning•FOOD•FRESH WATER•WOOD AND FIBRE•FUEL• …

Regulating•CLIMATE REGULATION•FLOOD MITIGATION•DISEASE REGULATION•WATER PURIFICATION

• …

Cultural•AESTHETIC•SPIRITUAL•EDUCATIONAL•RECREATIONAL

• …

Supporting•NUTRIENT CYCLING•SOIL FORMATION•PRIMARY PRODUCTION•…

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Provisioning•FOOD•FRESH WATER•WOOD AND FIBRE•FUEL• …

Regulating•CLIMATE REGULATION•FLOOD MITIGATION•DISEASE REGULATION•WATER PURIFICATION

• …

Cultural•AESTHETIC•SPIRITUAL•EDUCATIONAL•RECREATIONAL

• …

Supporting•NUTRIENT CYCLING•SOIL FORMATION•PRIMARY PRODUCTION•…

Case study: The Goulburn Broken Catchment

Da

iry

Fru

it a

nd

gra

pe

s

Ve

geta

ble

s

Gra

zin

g

Cro

ps

Inte

nsiv

e a

nim

als

Fo

restr

y

Fo

od

pro

ce

ssin

g

Ho

usin

g

Wa

ter

pro

du

ctio

n

Re

cre

atio

n

Cu

ltu

re/

bio

div

ers

ity

Pollination

Life-fulfillment

Climate regulation

Pest control

Genetic resources

Habitat regeneration

Shade and shelter

Soil health

Healthy waterways

Water filtration

River regulation

Waste absorption

SE

RV

ICE

SLAND-USES

Total P runoff

total pasture yield

SMI

effective rainfall

+supplement DM

pasture area

max annualproduction

+B

salinity

stocking rate

groundwatertable depth

-

location of habitatdiversity of habitat

annual rate ofincrease

annual rate ofdecrease by

pumping

+

-

MEI

ME of food

+

-

% available forconsumption

max voluntaryintake

pasture per cow+

+

+

pasture intake+

+

MEI for maxmilk prod

food intake (MEI)

+

-

area of naturalhabitat

+

Biodiversity Value

max depth

+

Total milkingarea

percent pasturetype

+

actual milking area

-

+

food deficit

CNo

Annual rain

Irrigation ML

Carbon store tC

SR effect on C

Saline area

area at risk ofsalinity

Total food per cow

% supplement type

Rate runoff Re use efficiency

P factor

pasture grazed

Available P

N factor

No irrigations

Available N

milk per cow

max milk per cow

milk reduction dueto temp stress

CO2 discharge

methanedischarge

milk production

P runoff Dung

P runoff fert

P runoff rain

Total Nleached/runoff

N leachingN runoffnitrous oxide

<volatilisation>

Total P runoff

total pasture yield

SMI

effective rainfall

+supplement DM

pasture area

max annualproduction

+B

salinity

stocking rate

groundwatertable depth

-

location of habitatdiversity of habitat

annual rate ofincrease

annual rate ofdecrease by

pumping

+

-

MEI

ME of food

+

-

% available forconsumption

max voluntaryintake

pasture per cow+

+

+

pasture intake+

+

MEI for maxmilk prod

food intake (MEI)

+

-

area of naturalhabitat

+

Biodiversity Value

max depth

+

Total milkingarea

percent pasturetype

+

actual milking area

-

+

food deficit

CNo

Annual rain

Irrigation ML

Carbon store tC

SR effect on C

Saline area

area at risk ofsalinity

Total food per cow

% supplement type

Rate runoff Re use efficiency

P factor

pasture grazed

Available P

N factor

No irrigations

Available N

milk per cow

max milk per cow

milk reduction dueto temp stress

CO2 discharge

methanedischarge

milk production

P runoff Dung

P runoff fert

P runoff rain

Total Nleached/runoff

N leachingN runoffnitrous oxide

<volatilisation>

total pasture yield

SMI

effective rainfall

+supplement DM

pasture area

max annualproduction

+B

salinity

stocking rate

groundwatertable depth

-

location of habitatdiversity of habitat

annual rate ofincrease

annual rate ofdecrease by

pumping

+

-

MEI

ME of food

+

-

% available forconsumption

max voluntaryintake

pasture per cow+

+

+

pasture intake+

+

MEI for maxmilk prod

food intake (MEI)

+

-

area of naturalhabitat

+

Biodiversity Value

max depth

+

Total milkingarea

percent pasturetype

+

actual milking area

-

+

food deficit

CNo

Annual rain

Irrigation ML

Carbon store tC

SR effect on C

Saline area

area at risk ofsalinity

Total food per cow

% supplement type

Rate runoff Re use efficiency

P factor

pasture grazed

Available P

N factor

No irrigations

Available N

milk per cow

max milk per cow

milk reduction dueto temp stress

CO2 discharge

methanedischarge

milk production

total pasture yield

SMI

effective rainfall

+supplement DM

pasture area

max annualproduction

+B

salinity

stocking rate

groundwatertable depth

-

location of habitatdiversity of habitat

annual rate ofincrease

annual rate ofdecrease by

pumping

+

-

MEI

ME of food

+

-

% available forconsumption

max voluntaryintake

pasture per cow+

+

+

pasture intake+

+

MEI for maxmilk prod

food intake (MEI)

+

-

area of naturalhabitat

+

Biodiversity Value

max depth

+

Total milkingarea

percent pasturetype

+

actual milking area

-

+

food deficit

CNo

Annual rain

Irrigation ML

Carbon store tC

SR effect on C

Saline area

area at risk ofsalinity

Total food per cow

% supplement type

Rate runoff Re use efficiency

P factor

pasture grazed

Available P

N factor

No irrigations

Available N

milk per cow

max milk per cow

milk reduction dueto temp stress

CO2 discharge

methanedischarge

milk production

P runoff Dung

P runoff fert

P runoff rain

Total Nleached/runoff

N leachingN runoffnitrous oxide

<volatilisation>

Legacies

Rainforest CRC

Sustainable EcosystemsEntomology

Land and WaterForestry and Forest Products

Plant Industry

The Sidney Myer Centenary Celebration 1899-1999

Legacies

• New thinking• Awareness• Informed dialogue• Spawned many

research projects• Encouraged uptake

in policy• Ongoing role for LWA

to the end

Futures program

• Grew from Redesigning Agriculture for Australian Landscapes (RAAL)

• Invested in “futures research”

• Supported several other programs

• Morphed into Innovationand Strategic Analysis programs

Futures program

“Isn’t a good chat over a glass of red just as good?”

Control→

Cert

ain

ty→ Rules

HedgingOptimal control

OptionsAdaptive

management

Possibilities

Plan for surprise

Uncertainty and decision-making

Focal question

Which factors are most important and uncertain?

What factorsmight influencethe future?

Scenarios or other tests of logic

Strategic decisions

Implications

What is “futures

research”?

Example project areas

• Scenario planning (e.g., Goulburn Broken, Future Woolscapes, LWA)

• Innovative technologies (e.g., biofuels, envisioning landscapes)

• Emerging challenges (e.g., endocrine disrupters, per-iurban development, future governance …)

Legacies

LegaciesMurrumbidgee

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Australian Meat Industry Avocados Australia Regional Development Victoria

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Australian Meat Industry Avocados Australia Regional Development Victoria

Namoi

Legacies

Louise Osbourne

Stuart Pearson

Legacies

• 4 ex LWA staff• 1 ex LWA consultant• Many past LWA

clients• 10 agencies in

across Australia and New Zealand

People