economics 160 votey, lecture 8, notes, p. 121 syllabus xvi lecture 16 professor votey decision...

Economics 160Economics 160

Votey, Lecture 8, Votey, Lecture 8, NotesNotes, p. 121 Syllabus XVI, p. 121 Syllabus XVI

Lecture 16

Professor Votey

Decision Theory: Jury Trials, Fair to Whom ?

More on the role of Decision Theorythe Economic Paradigm (in part review)

• Who uses it and why?Who uses it and why?• 1. Criminal participants -1. Criminal participants - following basic Bentham / following basic Bentham /

Utilitarian theoryUtilitarian theory• 2. Society in response2. Society in response - - with efforts at crime control with efforts at crime control• 2 sets of actors on opposing sides of the problem2 sets of actors on opposing sides of the problem• Why do rational people commit crime?Why do rational people commit crime?• 1.1. Because it paysBecause it pays - - though the individual may be though the individual may be

making the best of a poor set of optionsmaking the best of a poor set of options• 2. Most criminals are making a choice2. Most criminals are making a choice

- the legitimate alternative appears worse

Behavior of the individual

Legitimate Job

CHOICE

Success: Job: $X

Failure:

Success: Take from crime $Y

Unempl: $0

Jail: D days @ $Z loss

On what basis does the individual make a choice?

The Key:

Expected Net Benefits = E(NB) = P(B) . $B - P(C) . $Cneeds to be calculated for each option, i.e.,

E(NB) = [(1 - P(U)).$X + P(U).0] vs. [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]Simply pick the “Best”

Behavior of the individual

Legitimate Job

CHOICE

Success: Job: $X

Failure:

Unempl: $0

The Key:

Expected Net Benefits = E(NB) = P(B) . $B - P(C) . $C

needs to be calculated for each option, i.e.,

E(NB) = [(1 - P(U)).$X + P(U).0] vs. [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]

ButBut

Legitimate Job

CHOICE Failure:

Unempl: $0

The Key:

E(NB) = [(1 -1).$X + P(U).0] vs. [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]

BUT if P(U) = 1

CHOICE Failure:

The Key:

E(NB) = [(1 - P(A)).$Y + P(A).(-$Z)]

the only choice is CRIME

Do individuals really behave like this?Do individuals really behave like this?

• ArticlesArticles• by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,• and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, • Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysisSyllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysis

• We should add at least one more choice for We should add at least one more choice for persons on the threshold of selecting a career:persons on the threshold of selecting a career:

ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysis tend to support this sort of analysis

We should add at least one more choice for persons on the We should add at least one more choice for persons on the threshold of selecting a career:threshold of selecting a career:

Education (Investment in Human Capital)Education (Investment in Human Capital)

ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysisXV, tend to support this sort of analysis

-but opting for education requires wealth-but opting for education requires wealth

ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysistend to support this sort of analysis

-but opting for education requires wealth -but opting for education requires wealth or an alternative or an alternative income sourceincome source

ArticlesArticles by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”,by Krohm,”The Pecuniary Incentives of Property Crime”, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, and Gunning,”How Profitable is Burglary?”, Syllabus XV, tend to support this sort of analysistend to support this sort of analysis

-but opting for education requires wealth or an alternative -but opting for education requires wealth or an alternative

income source income source (or a subsidy)(or a subsidy)

As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime

- mirror the choices of the potential criminal

Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations

1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities

Two basic choices in terms of value of expectationsTwo basic choices in terms of value of expectations1. Affecting the probabilities1. Affecting the probabilities

2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits

But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions

But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and A. Factors relating to Deterrence and

IncapacitationIncapacitation

Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)

VictimCosts

Causal Causal ForcesForces

But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation

Resources spent to raiseResources spent to raise

But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise

a. P(A)a. P(A)

a. P(A), a. P(A), P(C|A)P(C|A)

2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits2. Manipulating the values of costs and benefits But there are really two classes of solutionsBut there are really two classes of solutions

A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise Resources spent to raise

a. P(A), P(C|A), a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)P(Punishment|C)

a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)

b. Sentences:b. Sentences:

As Bentham, and others since, have pointed out, choices for society, to prevent crime - mirror the choices of the potential criminal

a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)

b. Sentences:b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)Prison/Jail (length)

a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)

Fines ($)Fines ($)

a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C)a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)

Fines ($) Fines ($)

Probation (length)Probation (length)

a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)

Fines ($) Fines ($) Probation (length)Probation (length)

But there are really two classes of solutions A. Factors relating to Deterrence and Incapacitation Resources spent to raise

a. P(A), P(C|A), P(Punishment|C) b. Sentences: Prison/Jail (length)

Fines ($) Probation (length)

B. Factors relating to future opportunities

B. Factors relating to future opportunities Resources spent to

a. Affect availability of jobs

i. Invest in jobs on aggregate level

ii. Invest in individuals (training/ education) to make them more employable

i. Invest in jobs on aggregate level ii. Invest in individuals (training/education)

to make them more employable

b. Affect quality of jobs

i. invest in jobs on aggregate level ii. invest in individuals (training/education)

to make them more employable b. Affect quality of jobs

i. Aggregate - health care, unemployment ins.

i. invest in jobs on aggregate level ii. invest in individuals (training/education)

to make them more employable b. Affect quality of jobs

i. Aggregate - health care, unemployment ins.

ii. Individual - quality of education

Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)Consider the Circular Flow Process: (again)

VictimCosts

Causal Causal ForcesForces

When we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignoredWhen we consider our circular flow model, there is one aspect of it that tends to be ignored

Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason

Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reasonThe data show that for California and The data show that for California and

most states - inmates in prisons are most states - inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or convicts with sentences for 1 year or greatergreater

Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason The data show that for California and most states - The data show that for California and most states -

inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 inmates in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greateryear or greater

These individuals have been found guilty These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimes of serious crimes (except for those in for drug (except for those in for drug possession)possession)

These individuals have been found guilty of serious These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimescrimes

Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releasemonths of release

Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releaseRoughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of release

Most ultimately return to prisonMost ultimately return to prison

Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releaseRoughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of release

Most ultimately return to prison - Most ultimately return to prison - approaching approaching 90% over 5 years90% over 5 years

Rehabilitation, for apparently good reasonRehabilitation, for apparently good reason The data show that for California and most states - inmates The data show that for California and most states - inmates

in prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greaterin prisons are convicts with sentences for 1 year or greater These individuals have been found guilty of serious crimesThese individuals have been found guilty of serious crimes Roughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of releaseRoughly 70% recidivate within 36 months of release Most ultimately return to prison - approaching 90% over 5 Most ultimately return to prison - approaching 90% over 5

yearsyears

So why be concerned about spending on So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects?rehabilitation projects?

So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasonsSo why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons

There are cases in whichThere are cases in which rehabilitationrehabilitation works very well works very well

There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very wellPeter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm,

Tue., February 19, 1997Tue., February 19, 1997

There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19

San Francisco rehabilitation program run San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a privateby a private,,

There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private,

non-profit foundationnon-profit foundation

non-profit foundation, non-profit foundation, at no cost to cityat no cost to city

non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating operating for more than 20 years.for more than 20 years.

non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.more than 20 years.

More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center

There are cases in which rehabilitation worksThere are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February

1919 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private,

non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for non-profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.more than 20 years.

More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center

mandatory training in 3 job skills, work mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesfor wages

There are cases in which rehabilitation works There are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-

profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than profit foundation, at no cost to city, operating for more than 20 years.20 years.

More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesmandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wages

All training by former parolees, graduates of All training by former parolees, graduates of programprogram

There are cases in which rehabilitation worksThere are cases in which rehabilitation works very well very well Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-

More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesmandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wages All training by former parolees, graduates of programAll training by former parolees, graduates of program

profits pay costs of operationprofits pay costs of operation

There are cases in which rehabilitation works very There are cases in which rehabilitation works very wellwell Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19Peter Jennings , ABC News 5:30 pm, Tue., February 19 San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-San Francisco rehabilitation program run by a private, non-

More than 23,000 parolees sent to centerMore than 23,000 parolees sent to center mandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wagesmandatory training in 3 job skills, work for wages All training by former parolees, graduates of programAll training by former parolees, graduates of program profits pay costs of operationprofits pay costs of operation

Recidivism rates were a small fraction of Recidivism rates were a small fraction of the 61% for other parolees of city’s jails the 61% for other parolees of city’s jails

So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)So why be concerned about spending on rehabilitation projects? 2 reasons (-cont.)

Even rehabilitation programs that yield Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff higher recidivism rates may have a payoff

Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher

recidivism rates may have a payoffrecidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models

Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher Even rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models

can determine if a particular investment can determine if a particular investment leads to longer life leads to longer life

Even rehabilitation programs that yield higherEven rehabilitation programs that yield higher recidivism rates may have a payoff recidivism rates may have a payoff Revealed by Failure Time ModelsRevealed by Failure Time Models

can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life

then B then B // C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff

can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff

initially used in engineering to consider initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., light bulb life product quality, e.g., light bulb life

can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g.,

light bulb life light bulb life

The case of burglarsThe case of burglars

light bulb life light bulb life

The case of burglarsThe case of burglars

Most are professional, career criminalsMost are professional, career criminals

light bulb lifelight bulb life

The case of burglarsThe case of burglars Most are professional, career criminalsMost are professional, career criminals

In prison, don’t commit burglariesIn prison, don’t commit burglaries

can determine if a particular investment leads to longer lifecan determine if a particular investment leads to longer life then B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoffthen B / C analysis can reveal the degree of payoff initially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., light bulb lifeinitially used in engineering to consider product quality, e.g., light bulb life

The case of burglarsThe case of burglars Most are professional, career criminalsMost are professional, career criminals In prison, don’t commit burglariesIn prison, don’t commit burglaries

On release, even if attempt to go straight, most On release, even if attempt to go straight, most often find that best economic opportunities are often find that best economic opportunities are in burglary in burglary

Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?

Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No.

Failure time models show that there may be another Failure time models show that there may be another answeranswer

Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars?Does it pay to attempt to rehabilitate burglars? Most recidivism studies would argue, No.Most recidivism studies would argue, No. Failure time models show that there may be another answerFailure time models show that there may be another answer

Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticeJustice

Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego

Program provided education, help in getting a job, Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a jobhelp in keeping a job

Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in

keeping a jobkeeping a job

Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures not much different from other releaseesnot much different from other releasees

Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in

keeping a jobkeeping a job Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures not much Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures not much

different from other releaseesdifferent from other releasees

Phillips & Votey findingsPhillips & Votey findings

Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a

jobjob Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures not much Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures not much

different from other releaseesdifferent from other releasees

Phillips & Votey findingsPhillips & Votey findings Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly

longer timeslonger times to failure to failure

Phillips & Votey study for National Institute of JusticePhillips & Votey study for National Institute of Justice Ex-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San DiegoEx-cons released, Boston, Chicago, San Diego Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a Program provided education, help in getting a job, help in keeping a

jobjob Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures not much different Original study found: Ultimate recidivism failures not much different

from other releaseesfrom other releasees

Phillips & Votey findingsPhillips & Votey findings Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly longer times to Those with help in obtaining a job had significantly longer times to

failurefailure

Need to examine B / C of programNeed to examine B / C of program

Conducting a B / C Analysis of a Rehabilitation Program

What is the cost of the program ?What is the cost of the program ?

Conducting a B / C Analysis of a Rehabilitation Program

That - provides education That - provides education - help in getting a job - help in getting a job - help in keeping a job ? - help in keeping a job ?

All easily calculated accounting costsAll easily calculated accounting costs What are the benefits ?What are the benefits ? The reduction in offenses (OF) for the The reduction in offenses (OF) for the

period that the individual is crime free period that the individual is crime free

Conducting a B / C Analysis -Conducting a B / C Analysis -

Data required:Data required: the individual’s the individual’s (offense rate/year)(offense rate/year) thethe r r (loss rate or damages per offense)(loss rate or damages per offense)

for offenses not committed, i.e., for offenses not committed, i.e., .. R R Then simply calculate E(NB) = E(B) - E(C)Then simply calculate E(NB) = E(B) - E(C) All three programs, showed a substantial

payoff. Even though most candidates ultimately

recidivated

Opportunities at the aggregate levelOpportunities at the aggregate level

The Nation has, in the past, spent The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsconsiderable funds to attempt to create jobs

The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsfunds to attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people Benefits from job creation programs for people

who seem unemployable seem to be elusivewho seem unemployable seem to be elusive

The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsfunds to attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people who Benefits from job creation programs for people who

seem unemployable seem to be elusiveseem unemployable seem to be elusive

Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs

seem unemployable seem to be elusiveseem unemployable seem to be elusive Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs

Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy

Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy Implemented by Lyndon B. JohnsonImplemented by Lyndon B. Johnson

Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy Implemented by Linden B. JohnsonImplemented by Linden B. Johnson Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair, Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair,

Council of Economic Advisors Council of Economic Advisors

The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds The Nation has, in the past, spent considerable funds to attempt to create jobsto attempt to create jobs Benefits from job creation programs for people who seem Benefits from job creation programs for people who seem

unemployable seem to be elusiveunemployable seem to be elusive Consider the Great Society ProgramsConsider the Great Society Programs

Conceived by President John KennedyConceived by President John Kennedy Implemented by Lyndon B. JohnsonImplemented by Lyndon B. Johnson Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair, Council of Based on theory of Arthur Okun, Chair, Council of

Economic Advisors Economic Advisors

The notion of Potential GNPThe notion of Potential GNP

GNPPotentialActual

TimeReal GNP rises over time because of:

Actual GNP

GNPPotentialActual

Population Growth and growth of the Labor Force

Actual GNP

GNPPotentialActual

Population Growth and growth of the Labor ForcePrivate, Corporate and Government Saving leading to Investment

Actual GNP

GNPPotentialActual

Population Growth and growth of the Labor ForcePrivate, Corporate and Government Saving leading to InvestmentTechnological Change and Innovation

Actual GNP

GNPPotentialActual

Actual GNP

Potential GNP

GNPPotentialActual

Actual GNP

Potential GNP

Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce

GNPPotentialActual

Actual GNP

Potential GNP

Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production

GNPPotentialActual

Actual GNP

Potential GNP

Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production (Capital and Labor).

GNPPotentialActual

Actual GNP

Potential GNP

Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production (Capital and Labor) were fully employed.

GNPPotentialActual

Actual GNP

Potential GNP

Potential GNP is based on the calculation of what the country couldproduce if all factors of production (Capital and Labor) were fully employed.This depends upon Demand factors as well as supply potential.

GNPPotentialActual

Actual GNP

Potential GNP

Social Cost ofUnemployed Resources

Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincinglyOkun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly

Measures to increase the employment of Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inresources would pay off in

Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living

Broader based growthBroader based growth

Measures to increase the employment of resources Measures to increase the employment of resources would pay off inwould pay off in Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth

The problemThe problem

Okun and the Council of Economic Advisors argued, convincingly

The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs,

Job Training difficult to measureJob Training difficult to measure

The problemThe problem Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training Benefits of Head Start, Educational Programs, Job Training

difficult to measuredifficult to measure

It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyinefficiency

difficult to measuredifficult to measure It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyIt was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiency

Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to someone elsethat go to someone else

Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth

difficult to measuredifficult to measure It was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiencyIt was easier to find evidence of bureaucratic inefficiency Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to Taxpayers are always unwilling to pay for benefits that go to

someone elsesomeone else

More recent studies have tended to find support More recent studies have tended to find support for many Great Society programsfor many Great Society programs

Higher aggregate and individual levels of livingHigher aggregate and individual levels of living Broader based growthBroader based growth

someone elsesomeone else More recent studies have tended to find support for many More recent studies have tended to find support for many

Great Society programsGreat Society programs But legislators, typically, are more interested in But legislators, typically, are more interested in

opinion polls than fact findingopinion polls than fact finding

someone elsesomeone else More recent studies have tended to find support for many More recent studies have tended to find support for many

Great Society programsGreat Society programs But Congressmen, typically, are more interested in opinion But Congressmen, typically, are more interested in opinion

polls than fact findingpolls than fact finding

There is a perspective that would be worthy of There is a perspective that would be worthy of further considerationfurther consideration

There is a perspective that would be worthy of further considerationThere is a perspective that would be worthy of further consideration

Recall the NIJ video in which it was argued that Recall the NIJ video in which it was argued that the business cycle and general unemployment the business cycle and general unemployment levels had very little impact on crime levels.levels had very little impact on crime levels.

Our own studies tend to suggest that we Our own studies tend to suggest that we shouldn’t be too quick to accept that position.shouldn’t be too quick to accept that position.

The ’90’s decline in the crime rates suggests The ’90’s decline in the crime rates suggests that employment levels have a fair amount to that employment levels have a fair amount to do with crime levelsdo with crime levels

If we focus on those persons at the threshold of If we focus on those persons at the threshold of making a career decision, we would have to argue making a career decision, we would have to argue even more strongly to the contrary.even more strongly to the contrary.

If one were to calculate, as a social cost

If one were to calculate, as a social cost, the

present value of all the damages that a career

criminal

criminal, in his lifetime

criminal, in his lifetime, will impose on society

criminal, in his lifetime, will impose on society, as

a consequence of lack of economic opportunity at

a critical moment in his life

a critical moment in his life, one would have to

conclude that

conclude that the costs of failure to more closely

approach Potential GNP

conclude that the costs of failure to more closely

approach Potential GNP are likely to be very great

indeed.

Consider the cost to society of the typical burglar of Krohm’s analysis.

Who commits a burglary a week over his career. Who spends a substantial proportion of life in jail or prison Costing the taxpayers in California roughly $30,000 per year To say nothing of the added costs for law enforcement, prosecution, and adjudication.

If we add in the costs of criminals who begin, modestly, as burglars, but graduate to robbery and sometimes assault and murder, the costs get even higher.

Consider what the alternative benefits might have

been, if we could have found a way to make an

investment in that same individual's human

capital

capital that would have made him a constructive

member of society

member of society, producing a contribution to

GNP, paying taxes

GNP, paying taxes and contributing to economic

growth.

This is a hard argument to sell, because it depends upon speculation about the future, and there are many uncertainties.

But this is how all investment decisions are madeBut this is how all investment decisions are made

Failing to have made such a decision in the past is Failing to have made such a decision in the past is

having a devastating impact on higher educationhaving a devastating impact on higher education

and on investments in healthand on investments in health

having a devastating impact on higher education, having a devastating impact on higher education,

on investments in healthon investments in health and on the general quality and on the general quality

of lifeof life

on investments in health and on the general quality on investments in health and on the general quality

of lifeof life in Californiain California

on investments in health and on the general quality on investments in health and on the general quality

of life in Californiaof life in California and the Nationand the Nation

Today there is a strong aversion to having government take a role in creating economic opportunities.

There is much anecdotal evidence of its valueThere is much anecdotal evidence of its value Small business man in Northern MichiganSmall business man in Northern Michigan In trouble, age 15, Flint MichiganIn trouble, age 15, Flint Michigan Persuaded to join FDR’s CCCPersuaded to join FDR’s CCC Put to work on conservation projects, paid Put to work on conservation projects, paid

a modest wage a modest wage Was convinced headed for a life of crime before Was convinced headed for a life of crime before

that opportunity that opportunity Gibraltar Road, into the Coast Range from Santa Barbara, was Gibraltar Road, into the Coast Range from Santa Barbara, was

built in the 1930’s as a WPA projectbuilt in the 1930’s as a WPA project

To reiterate Arthur Okun’s point about Potential GNPTo reiterate Arthur Okun’s point about Potential GNP

If more people are employedIf more people are employed Costs of growth and governmentCosts of growth and government Are spread over greater numbersAre spread over greater numbers

There is not only a greater wage billThere is not only a greater wage bill There is also a broader tax baseThere is also a broader tax base Those previously a burden are made to beThose previously a burden are made to be

contributing members of society contributing members of society

Careful decision theory analysis

is implied for all such potential

investments in people

So far, we have talked about decision theory as it applies to choice to commit crime - or strategies to prevent it. It can apply to other CJS decisions.

• Establishing Standards for JusticeEstablishing Standards for Justice

• The Criminal Justice SystemThe Criminal Justice System

Police Prosecutor Courts

CorrectionsDismissal

GuiltyNot Guilty

What determines the standards for Guilt, Innocence?

Since the O. J. Simpson trials, the standards for the determination of guilt and innocence have been subjected to considerable debate.

Today will describe a personal experience closer to Today will describe a personal experience closer to home that reflects some of our concerns and how our home that reflects some of our concerns and how our system deals with themsystem deals with them

Tuesday Feb. 22 - Tue, Mar. 1, 1983, served as a juror Tuesday Feb. 22 - Tue, Mar. 1, 1983, served as a juror on a criminal case in S. B. County Superior Court.on a criminal case in S. B. County Superior Court.

U. S. Constitution, Amendment VI,“Trial by Jury”U. S. Constitution, Amendment VI,“Trial by Jury”guarantees each of us a “trial by an impartial jury of guarantees each of us a “trial by an impartial jury of one’s peers”one’s peers”

A costly process for the State - and for the jurorsA costly process for the State - and for the jurors 1983 juror’s pay: $9/day + free parking if get there early1983 juror’s pay: $9/day + free parking if get there early Prof. Phillips had to give my lectures in Econ 160Prof. Phillips had to give my lectures in Econ 160

Jury Selection

1. Candidates, randomly selected from voter registration lists, notified must serve. For a reasonable excuse, one can be temporarily excused, e.g., too pregnant to serve, caring for a young baby. It is a citizens duty to serve, regarded by law as serious a duty as serving in the military in wartime.2. Jury panel seated in the courtroom. Size based on nature of trial (100 for Grove murder case) Initially, 12 + 2 alternates selected to sit in jury box .3. Each, in turn, questioned to determine impartiality Judge can “release for cause”. Atty for Defense has limited No. preemptory challenges Prosecutor has similar privilege

Jury Selection (-cont.)

Judge will “dismiss for cause”Any potential juror linked to law enforcement, I.e., friend of a police officer or of a D.A.One who has strong views on guilt or punishmentA person with prior knowledge of the case

The Case:(announced at the beginning of the proceedings)The Case:(announced at the beginning of the proceedings)

Department 5, Santa Barbara Superior CourtDepartment 5, Santa Barbara Superior Court Judge: Patrick McMahon, presidingJudge: Patrick McMahon, presiding Charges: Burglary (2 counts), Attempted RapeCharges: Burglary (2 counts), Attempted Rape Location of Crime: 6565 Sabado Tarde, Isla Location of Crime: 6565 Sabado Tarde, Isla

VistaVista Time: 6:00am, March 2, 1981Time: 6:00am, March 2, 1981 Expected time of trial: 8 daysExpected time of trial: 8 days

Jury SelectionMy expectation as a potential juror:Jury SelectionMy expectation as a potential juror:

To be “released for cause” as in earlier caseTo be “released for cause” as in earlier case Because of research interests, Because of research interests, Past interaction with persons in local law enforcement Past interaction with persons in local law enforcement

Instead was asked if I thought that my knowledgeInstead was asked if I thought that my knowledgewould bias my judgment of guilt or innocencewould bias my judgment of guilt or innocence

Of course, answered, No.Of course, answered, No. Defense attorney concerned with eliminatingDefense attorney concerned with eliminating

young women, older women with daughters,young women, older women with daughters, any juror who had a friend -or- relative who was aany juror who had a friend -or- relative who was a victim of a sex crime victim of a sex crime..

For exampleFor example

Jury Selection: My expectation as a potential juror:

To be “released for cause” as in earlier case,To be “released for cause” as in earlier case, because of research interests and past interaction because of research interests and past interaction with persons in local law enforcement. with persons in local law enforcement. Instead was asked if I thought that my knowledgeInstead was asked if I thought that my knowledge would bias my judgment of guilt or innocence. would bias my judgment of guilt or innocence. Of course, answered, No.Of course, answered, No. Defense attorney concerned with eliminating youngDefense attorney concerned with eliminating young women, older women with daughters, any juror who women, older women with daughters, any juror who had a friend -or- relative who was a victim of a had a friend -or- relative who was a victim of a sex crime. sex crime. A strong law and order type was invariably dismissed.A strong law and order type was invariably dismissed.

The process of a jury trial seems stacked in favor of the defendant -

Is it because we are soft on crime?

The process of a jury trial seems stacked in favor of the defendant -

Is it because we are soft on crime?

No.No. Standard hypothesis testing procedure is Standard hypothesis testing procedure is to bias a test to bias a test against the hypothesisagainst the hypothesis one is one is attempting to prove - to avoid costly mistakes attempting to prove - to avoid costly mistakes

The trial, starts with a The trial, starts with a presumption of innocencepresumption of innocence.. The defense is not required to prove it. The defense is not required to prove it.

The prosecution is required to prove The prosecution is required to prove “Guilt, “Guilt, beyond a reasonable doubt” beyond a reasonable doubt”

Proof of innocence may still be a good defense ployProof of innocence may still be a good defense ploy

•The trial

•Ground Rules from initial statement by Judge:• 1. No talking with other jurors, or with anyone outside the Courtroom about the case• 2. No experiments or detective work or personal

investigations to be conducted by jurors on own

•Prosecutor, Patrick McKinley, begins with description• 1. of the crime and• 2. the case against the defendant

The Scene of the crime:

6565 Sabado Tarde

DECK - 2 LEVELS: 2nd, 3rd

DRIVE- WAY

ENTER FROM2ND FLOORDECK

MGR 1ST FLOOR

#13 2ND

#18 3RD

Actors:

Actors: Defendant:

Actors: Defendant: introduced by the Prosecutor: med. ht./ build,

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record)

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager:

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim:

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial.

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3)

kinky, dark blonde hair, distinctive, deep set eyes DENIES GUILT (learned later, prior record) Apt. Manager: elderly (60’s), heavy set Alleged Victim: previously had identified Defendant, did so at trial. Roommates (3): called police, couldn’t identify assailant

Said was light enough to do so. All had something stolen.

Other Apt. Residents:

Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant

Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing

Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing2. Brother’s Roommate:

Other Apt. Residents:1. Brother of Defendant, Apt. 13: heard, saw nothing2. Brother’s Roommate: heard screams, door of apt.

open soon after

open soon after3. Residents,

open soon after3. Residents, Apt.18: heard, saw nothing, door had

been locked entire time

Actors: (-cont.)

Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy:

Actors: (-cont.) Sheriff’s Deputy: 1st to scene ~ 6 min., saw footprints on

steps in dew.

6565 Sabado Tarde

DRIVE- WAY

DECK on 2nd and 3rd levels

MGR 1ST FLOOR

#13 2ND

#18 3RD

steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where.

steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have

been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13.

steps in dew. Earlier had given erroneous report of where. Said to top floor in back (would have been to #18), actually to 2nd floor, hence would have been to #13. He had subsequently beenreassigned from patrol to courtroom duty.

Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective,

Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job.

Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions.

Lt. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, couldenvision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.

Defendant:

Defendant: stated innocence.

Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked all the right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diego and made the arrest. Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in question

drank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.

Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could

envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked allthe right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diegoand made arrest.

Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in questiondrank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.

Defense Attorney:

Defense Attorney: Steve Balash

Defense Attorney: Steve Balash, noted local criminal defense lawyer.

Lt.. Carter: Sheriff’s Detective, impressive, professional, could envision in trench coat, out doing job. Asked all the right questions. Tracked suspect to San Diego and made arrest. Defendant: stated innocence. Said that on night in question

drank a lot of beer (2 6-packs), alone, locked out of brother’s apt.

Defense Attorney: Steve Balash, noted local criminal defense lawyer. Questions each witness to fan

concerns of “reasonable doubt”.

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor)

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug,

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair.

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level,

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money.

6565 Sabado Tarde

DRIVE- WAY

DECK on 2nd and 3rd floors

MGR. 1ST FLOOR

#13 2ND

#18 3RD

2 bedrooms, bath on 3rd2 bedrooms, bath on 3rdkitchen on 2nd floorkitchen on 2nd floor

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc.. things from other rooms.

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken a pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.

Was discovered by Alleged Victim

Courtroom Drama

Prosecutor had described how the attacker had entered the apartment on the main level (2nd floor), disconnected the phone, by pulling plug, picked up a carving knife in kitchen, and a washcloth to cover his hair. Had then gone upstairs to the bedroom level, entered front bedroom and taken pack and money from front bedroom, misc. things from other rooms.

Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed,

Courtroom Drama

Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair

Courtroom Drama

Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat

Courtroom Drama

Was discovered by Alleged Victim, sitting on her bed, wash cloth covering his hair, with a knife to her throat, and other hand on her breast.

Courtroom Drama

What did she do?

Courtroom Drama

What did she do? Scream?

Courtroom Drama

What did she do? Scream? No.

Courtroom Drama

Her roommate sat up in bed

Courtroom Drama

Her roommate sat up in bed and screamed.

Courtroom Drama

Her roommate sat up in bed and screamed. The assailant ran.

Courtroom Drama (-cont.)

The women heard him clumping down the stairs.

The washcloth was found at the first *

6565 Sabado Tarde

DRIVE- WAY

MGR 1ST FLOOR

#13 2ND

#18 3RD

The washcloth was found at the first * , the knife at the second.

6565 Sabado Tarde

DRIVE- WAY

MGR 1ST FLOOR

#13 2ND

#18 3RD

Manager

Manager testified that he heard a scream,

Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet

Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery.

Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting

Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in arraignment hearing at the Courthouse

Manager testified that he heard a scream, running feet, went outside and found the knife in the shrubbery. Later, Victim, with no prompting, picks out attacker in arraignment hearing at the Courthouse, not having seen him in a lineup or in mug shots.

By now, it was clear that the case hinges on

By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see

By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see well enough to identify her attacker.

By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see well enough to identify her attacker. Everything depended upon visibility

By now, it was clear that the case hinges on whether it was possible for the Victim to see well enough to identify her attacker. Everything depended upon visibility in the light at 6:00 am on that morning in March.

The testimony produced by the Prosecutor:

An astronomer from the S. B. Museum of Natural

History

A visit to the scene of the crime for the jury

History

My inadvertent experiment

History

Observation of the light at 6:00 am

History

Letter to the Judge

History

Letter to the Judge

Dismissal

Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution?

Why were judge and two attorneys agreed on solution? Prosecutor didn’t want questions raised

resulting in a mistrial.

resulting in a mistrial. Defense wanted me off jury. From my letter,

was clear I might sway jury against defendant.

was clear I might sway jury against defendant. Judge didn’t want a mistrial. Only solution was to dismiss me, bring in alternate.

The Judge’s letter

Was the outcome just?

Does the Economic Paradigm help to evaluate thesituation?

The Economic Paradigm

1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:

a. Found Guilty when guilty

1. Specifying the alternative feasible outcomes:a. Found Guilty when guilty

b. Found Innocent when guilty

c. Found Guilty when innocent

d. Found Innocent when innocent

2. Value states of the world

3. Select “best” outcome

How do we do steps 2., 3. ?

Problem: We don’t know if defendant is innocent or guilty.

Purpose of trial is to determine innocence or guilt, but we may never know truth of innocence or guilt with certainty.

Purpose of trial is to determine innocence or guilt, but we may never know truth of innocence or guilt with certainty. When there is a possibility for error, we need a logical approach to doing our best, i.e., to determine guilt or innocence “beyond a reasonable doubt.”

We turn to the science of Hypothesis Testing.

Null Hypothesis: The Defendant is INNOCENT. As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.

Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendant is GUILTY.

Distribution ofdefendantswho areinnocent

Distribution of guilty defendants

0.0 Standard of quality for evidence 1.0Certaintyof Guilt

(Certainty ofInnocence)

ArbitraryStandard Set

Innocent,found GuiltyType I Error

Guilty,found InnocentType II Error

How do we choose the correct standard for the quality of evidence ?

Go back to the Economic Paradigm

The objective would be to minimize the socialcost of error,

I.e., Min SC = P( II ) . $ II + P( I ) . $ I

Null Hypothesis: The Defendant is INNOCENT.As prescribed by the U. S. Constitution.

Alternate Hypothesis: The Defendant is GUILTY.

Distribution ofdefendantswho areinnocent

Distribution of guilty defendants

0.0 Standard of quality for evidence 1.0Certaintyof Guilt

(Certainty ofInnocence)

ArbitraryStandard Set

Innocent,found GuiltyType I Error

Guilty,found InnocentType II Error

I.e., Min SC = P( II ) . $ II + P( I ) . $ I*

In our society we would probably assign ahigher cost to *convicting an innocent manthan than that for allowing a guilty man to go free

Professor PhillipsProfessor Phillips

The Family andThe Family and

DelinquencyDelinquency

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