economic update: us and washignton presented by greg weeks, ph.d
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Economic Update: US and Washignton
Presented by
Greg Weeks, PH.D.Washington State
Employment Security Department
Labor Market and Economic Analysis
2008 IPMA ConferenceLake Chelan, WA
October 14, 2008
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, U.S.December 2000 = 100
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, WashingtonDecember 2000 = 100
0807060504030201Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
110.0
107.5
105.0
102.5
100.0
97.5
95.0
110.0
107.5
105.0
102.5
100.0
97.5
95.0
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington
Difference - Period to Period Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
08070605Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
20
15
10
5
0
-5
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Employment/Population Ratio: SeattleEmployment/Population Ratio: Washington less Seattle
Employment/Population Ratio: WashingtonEmployment/Population Ratio: U.S.
050095
72.5
70.0
67.5
65.0
62.5
60.0
57.5
72.5
70.0
67.5
65.0
62.5
60.0
57.5
Initial ClaimsETA 539 (Regular Benefits)
Claims Reported During the Week Ending 10/04/2008
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
Week Number (DOL)
Nu
mb
er o
f C
laim
s
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: LMEA, ESD
Continued Weeks Claimed ETA 539 (Regular Benefits)
Claims Reported During the Week Ending 10/04/2008
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
95,000
105,000
115,000
125,000
135,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Week Number (DOL)
Nu
mb
er o
f W
eeks C
laim
ed
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Source: LMEA,
ESD
Unemployment Insurance: Exhaustion Rate: Washington%
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims Applications: WashingtonNSA, Number
0807060504030201009998
40
36
32
28
24
20
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
Unemployment Rate, United StatesSeasonally Adjusted, %
Unemployment Rate, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, %
08070605040302Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
8
7
6
5
4
8
7
6
5
4
December 2000 = 100
Seattle-Everett-BellevueTacomaSpokane
Balance of State
08070605040302
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
116
112
108
104
100
96
92
All Employees: Manufacturing, U.S.Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands
All Employees: Manufacturing, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands
08070605040302Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
16000
15500
15000
14500
14000
13500
13000
310
300
290
280
270
260
All Employees: Mfg Nondurable Goods, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands
All Employees: Mfg Durable Goods, WashingtonSeasonally Adjusted, Thousands
08070605040302Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
88
86
84
82
80
78
220
210
200
190
180
Manufacturers' New Orders: Aircraft & Parts (U.S. )
Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $
08070605040302Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
Manufacturers' New Orders: Information Technology (U.S. )
Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $
08070605040302Source: Census Bureau /Haver Analytics
90000
85000
80000
75000
70000
65000
60000
90000
85000
80000
75000
70000
65000
60000
Construction Payrolls Share of Washington PayrollsSeasonally Adjusted
Construction Payrolls Share of Total U.S. PayrollsSeasonally Adjusted
050095Source: Haver Analytics
7.50
6.75
6.00
5.25
4.50
3.75
7.50
6.75
6.00
5.25
4.50
3.75
Private Construction: Nonresidential (U.S. )% Chg - Year/Year seasonally adjusted annual rate, Millions $
Private Construction: Residential (U.S. )% Chg - Year/Year seasonally adjusted annual rate, Millions $
0807060504030201Sources: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics, Census Bureau
40
20
0
-20
-40
40
20
0
-20
-40
Housing Starts: U.S. , Thousands of Units6-month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Housing Starts: Washington, Thousands of Units6-month Moving Average, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
08070605040302Sources: Census Bureau, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ /Haver Analytics
2250
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
55
50
45
40
35
30
Real Disposable Personal Income% Chg - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures% Chg - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted
08070605040302Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics
8
6
4
2
0
-2
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Per Capita Personal Income, United StatesChained 2000 $
Per Capita Personal Income, WashingtonChained 2000 $
0807060504030201Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
36000
34000
32000
30000
28000
36000
34000
32000
30000
28000
Real Gross Domestic Product
% Change - Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
0807060504030201Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis /Haver Analytics
8
6
4
2
0
-2
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Consumer Confidence: PacificSeasonally Adjusted, 1985=100
Consumer ConfidenceSeasonally Adjusted, 1985=100
08070605040302Source: The Conference Board /Haver Analytics
140
120
100
80
60
40
120
100
80
60
40
Avg Hourly Earnings: Total Private% Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, $/hour
CPI-U: All Items % Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100
08070605040302Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
6
5
4
3
2
1
6
5
4
3
2
1
House Price Index, United States% Change - Year to Year 1980 Q1=100
Housing Starts, United StatesSeasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Thousands of Units
08070605040302Sources: OFHEO, CENSUS /Haver
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
OFHEO House Price Index, Washington % Change - Year to Year NSA, 1980 Q1=100
OFHEO House Price Index, United States % Change - Year to Year NSA, 1980 Q1=100
050095908580Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight /Haver Analytics
30.0
22.5
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
30.0
22.5
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
Yield Curve: 10-Year versus Fed Funds Rate
10-Year Treasury Note Yield at Constant MaturityFederal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate
0807060504030201Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
3-Month Eurodollar Deposits, London Bid% p.a.
Federal Open Market Committee: Fed Funds Target Rate%
0807060504030201009998Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
4-Week Treasury Bills, Secondary Market% p.a.
1-Month Eurodollar Deposits, London Bid% p.a.
0807060504030201009998Source: Federal Reserve Board /Haver Analytics
5.25
4.50
3.75
3.00
2.25
1.50
0.75
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy % Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100
CPI-U: All Items % Change - Year/Year, Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100
0807060504030201Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
5
4
3
2
1
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate [Prior'82=Posted Price]$/Barrel
U.S. Retail Gasoline Price: Regular GradeAvg, Cents/Gallon
0807060504030201Sources: Wall Street Journal, Department of Energy /Haver Analytics
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
450
375
300
225
150
75
U.S. Retail Gasoline Price: Regular Grade1995=100
Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate 1995=100
08070605040302010099989796Sources: Department of Energy, Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics
800
600
400
200
0
800
600
400
200
0
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: WashingtonNot Seasonally Adjusted, %
Mortgage Foreclosures Started: U.S.Not Seasonally Adjusted, %
050095Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Conventional Subprime ARM Mortgages: Foreclosure Started: United StatesSA, %
Conventional Prime ARM Mortgages: Foreclosure Started: United StatesSA, %
0807060504030201009998Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics
8
6
4
2
0
2.0
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0.0
Composite Housing Affordability Index % Change - Year to Year Median Inc=Qualifying Inc=100
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States % Change - Year to Year $
0807060504030201009998Source: National Association of Realtors /Haver Analytics
22.5
15.0
7.5
0.0
-7.5
-15.0
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Thank You for your time and attention!
Please call or email with any questions:
Greg Weeks
gweeks@esd.wa.gov
(360) 438-48804
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