economic update idaho workforce development council meeting november 15, 2012

Economic Economic UpdateUpdate

Idaho Workforce Idaho Workforce Development Development

Council MeetingCouncil MeetingNovember 15, 2012November 15, 2012

Bob UhlenkottChief Research Officer Idaho Department of Labor

$60 Billion$60 Billion$60 Billion$60 Billion

Idaho Gross Domestic Product

20132013

20162016

At the nation’s current GDP growth rate that is estimated

at around 2%, Idaho could realize just over $59 B in 2012.

Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

7.1 %7.8 %

September 2012

(9.6%) Previous RecordDec-1982 to Feb-1983

(2.7%) Nov-2006 to Mar-2007

Idaho Regional Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates – September 2012

Idaho Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate

Alternative Unemployment Measures

U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6United States 4.7 4.6 8.3 8.8 9.7 15Alaska 3.1 4.3 7.8 8.3 9.2 13.1Arizona 4.3 4.3 8.6 9 10.1 16.1California 6.5 6.1 10.8 11.4 12.6 19.6Colorado 4.4 4.9 8.2 8.5 9.4 15Idaho 3.8 3.7 7.6 7.9 8.9 15.3Montana 2.5 3.3 6.1 6.4 7.3 14.4Nevada 7.2 7.4 11.9 12.9 14.3 21.4North Dakota 1 1.5 3.3 3.4 3.9 6Ohio 4 4.2 7.5 7.8 8.8 13.6Oklahoma 2.4 2.8 5.5 5.8 6.7 9.9Oregon 4.5 5.3 8.9 9.2 10.4 17.3Utah 2.5 2.9 5.5 5.8 6.4 11.2Washington 4.5 5 8.7 9.1 10.4 17.1Wyoming 2.2 2.6 5.7 5.9 6.7 10.4

StateMeasure (percent)

Idaho U3 and U6 Unemployment Rates-as a percent-

Idaho’s U3 as a Percent of the U6 Unemployment Rate

• Robust - Yet six to nine months outdated!

National Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2011

National Employment Y-o-Y 2nd Qtr. 2011

National Employment Y-o-Y 3rd Qtr. 2011

National Employment Y-o-Y 4th Qtr. 2011

National Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2012

-9.1%

Construction Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2011

-4.8%

Construction Employment Y-o-Y 2nd Qtr. 2011

-5.6%

Construction Employment Y-o-Y 3rd Qtr. 2011

Construction Employment Y-o-Y 4th Qtr. 2011

-1.2%

Construction Employment Y-o-Y 1st Qtr. 2012

-0.2%

• Current (last month) - Yet subject to revisions!

Idaho Non-Farm JobsYear-Over-Year Percentage Change – September 2012

Idaho New-Hire Counts by Month

• Evaluating past and current projections!

Industry and Occupational Projections

STP - 2009 to 2011 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .30%.Underestimated Non-farm Jobs in the fourth quarter of 2011 by 140 Jobs (off by .023%).

STP - 2010 to 2012 – Jobs were projected to grow annually at .33%.Growth expected to exceed our original projection, on pace for around .75%)

STP - 2011 to 2013 – Jobs are projected to grow annually at 1.2%.If things continue with slow modest growth we are on pace for 1.2% annualized growth. That being said, in 2013 there are many potential economic hurdles yet to be faced.

LTP - 2010 to 2020 – Jobs projected to grow at 1.7%.Way to soon to estimate but existing economic conditions suggest we are on track to realize this projection.

• Current Job Listings – subject to some duplication and trolling!

Idaho’s October Historical Job Listing ActivityHelp Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Rank Occupation Volume1 Retail Salespersons 6922 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 6693 Registered Nurses 5144 Customer Service Representatives 4515 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 4446 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 2707 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 2388 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 2269 Physical Therapists 22010 Personal and Home Care Aides 21911 Computer Support Specialists 21212 Occupational Therapists 20513 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 20414 Insurance Sales Agents 20215 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 19816 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 18117 Web Developers 18018 Offi ce Clerks, General 17819 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Offi ce and Administrative Support Workers 17420 Home Health Aides 17121 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 17022 Telemarketers 15323 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 15224 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 15125 Receptionists and Information Clerks 151

TOP 25 - Ranked JOB Listings (Conference Board - Help Wanted On-Line)

Idaho’s October Top 25 Occupational Job Listings Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

• Regional Analysis using Help Wanted On-line Tool!

Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Rank Occupation Volume1 Retail Salespersons 1752 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 1483 Customer Service Representatives 1214 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 1175 Registered Nurses 1116 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 847 Personal and Home Care Aides 828 Home Health Aides 799 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 7010 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 6811 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 6712 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 6013 Insurance Sales Agents 5714 Construction Carpenters 5615 Telemarketers 5516 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 5417 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 5318 Computer Support Specialists 5219 Construction Laborers 4920 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Offi ce and Administrative Support Workers 4821 Cooks, Restaurant 4722 Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers 4623 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 4524 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 4325 Medical Assistants 42

TOP 25 - Ranked JOB Listings (Conference Board - Help Wanted On-Line)

CDA - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Rank Occupation Volume1 Retail Salespersons 512 Occupational Therapists 323 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 234 Registered Nurses 225 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 186 Physical Therapist Assistants 147 Customer Service Representatives 148 Personal and Home Care Aides 149 Industrial Engineers 1310 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists 1111 Occupational Therapist Assistants 1112 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1013 Computer Support Specialists 1014 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 1015 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 916 Construction Laborers 917 Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers 918 Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 919 Coaches and Scouts 920 Tellers 821 Offi ce Clerks, General 822 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 823 Electricians 724 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Production and Operating Workers 725 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 7

TOP 25 - Ranked JOB Listings (Conference Board - Help Wanted On-Line)

Lewiston - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Rank Occupation Volume1 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 2642 Retail Salespersons 2443 Customer Service Representatives 2224 Registered Nurses 2015 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 1726 Computer Support Specialists 1187 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 1188 Web Developers 1119 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 10710 Insurance Sales Agents 10011 Personal and Home Care Aides 8812 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 8213 Telemarketers 8114 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 8115 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 7916 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 7217 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 7118 Sales Agents, Financial Services 7019 Accountants 6920 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Offi ce and Administrative Support Workers 6921 Construction Carpenters 6822 Electricians 6523 Computer Systems Analysts 6424 Waiters and Waitresses 6225 Software Quality Assurance Engineers and Testers 62

TOP 25 - Ranked JOB Listings (Conference Board - Help Wanted On-Line)

Boise MSA - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Twin Falls - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Rank Occupation Volume1 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 732 Retail Salespersons 713 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 344 Speech-Language Pathologists 255 Occupational Therapists 236 Physical Therapists 217 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products198 Customer Service Representatives 199 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 1810 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1711 Helpers--Production Workers 1712 Insurance Sales Agents 1513 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1414 Electricians 1315 Advertising Sales Agents 1316 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Production and Operating Workers 1317 Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers 1318 Medical and Health Services Managers 1219 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 1220 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1221 Sales Agents, Financial Services 1222 Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 1223 Registered Nurses 1124 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 1125 Tellers 10

TOP 25 - Ranked JOB Listings (Conference Board - Help Wanted On-Line)

Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Rank Occupation Volume1 Retail Salespersons 252 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 243 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 234 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 185 Customer Service Representatives 126 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 117 Driver/Sales Workers 118 Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers 109 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1010 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 1011 Physical Therapists 912 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 913 Computer Support Specialists 914 Demonstrators and Product Promoters 815 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Offi ce and Administrative Support Workers 816 Medical and Health Services Managers 817 Occupational Therapists 818 General and Operations Managers 719 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 720 Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 721 Speech-Language Pathologists 722 Tellers 723 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators 624 Cooks, Restaurant 625 Insurance Sales Agents 6

TOP 25 - Ranked JOB Listings (Conference Board - Help Wanted On-Line)

Pocatello - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Historical Job Listing Activity by Region Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Idaho Falls - Top 25 Occupational Job Listings October - Help Wanted On-Line (HWOL)

Rank Occupation Volume1 Retail Salespersons 972 Registered Nurses 823 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 754 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 535 Customer Service Representatives 396 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 357 Insurance Sales Agents 258 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 229 Personal and Home Care Aides 1810 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Offi ce and Administrative Support Workers 1811 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 1712 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 1713 Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 1614 Demonstrators and Product Promoters 1615 Dental Assistants 1416 Massage Therapists 1417 Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers 1318 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 1319 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 1320 Driver/Sales Workers 1321 Electricians 1222 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1223 Offi ce Clerks, General 1224 Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers 1225 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators 11

TOP 25 - Ranked JOB Listings (Conference Board - Help Wanted On-Line)

Northern Idaho

7,800 total net jobs lost from 2007-2011

- Over half of the jobs lost were in Construction

- Over 5,600 annual net jobs lost in 2009

- Nearly 1,500 net jobs lost in 2010

- 160 net jobs lost in 2011

After three years of not seeing year-over-year gains, North Idaho finally crawled out of the depths of the most recent economic contraction! 

Northern Idaho - continued

Manufacturing- - Wood Product MFG. heading in positive direction-Backlogs filling up-Increase in Job Openings

Manufacturing- - Wood Product MFG. heading in positive direction-Backlogs filling up-Increase in Job Openings

Mining- Metal Prices up- 190 jobs gained since 2009- Canada’s #1 Import

Mining- Metal Prices up- 190 jobs gained since 2009- Canada’s #1 Import

Health Care- Added 1,000 jobs since 2007- 1,500 job in 2011- Fastest growing industry- Aging Workforce = Job Opportunities

Health Care- Added 1,000 jobs since 2007- 1,500 job in 2011- Fastest growing industry- Aging Workforce = Job Opportunities

Northern Idaho - continued

North Central Idaho

• Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector is showing new vibrance. Manufacturing jobs are back above their pre-recession level of 4,060.

• Health care - including hospitals and nursing homes–pulled back a bit this year. Some changes in federal reimbursement, and reduced demand by locals. The long-term prospects are bright.

• Construction remains a major drag, but there are some signs that will change in the next year.

Manufacturing (+360)•Manufacturing was a winner over the last five years up 4.6 percent or 360 jobs regionally relative to the state’s decline of 16 percent.Healthcare and Social Assistance (+724)•This highly profiled industry saw the most growth in Blaine and Twin Falls counties where the St. Luke’s effect supported growth to the tune of 22.7 percent and 15 percent, respectively -outperforming the state at 14.2 percent.

South Central Idaho

South-Eastern Idaho

South-Eastern Idaho has withstood the recent recession better than the other regions of the state. Currently, southeastern Idaho has the state’s second lowest regional unemployment rate, just one-tenth of a percent behind Eastern Idaho, at 6.1 percent in September. Three major factors are responsible for the lower than average unemployment in the area. The presence of the Idaho National Laboratory and Idaho State University stabilize the area economy.

- Evidence of recovery can be found in the number of job openings posted with the Idaho Department of Labor in Southeast Idaho. In 2011 the region experienced a sharp rebound in job openings as the number vacancies rose to 7,012. Given the current trend 2012 is expected to see more total openings than the year before.

It looks like 2012 will produce more job openings on IdahoWorks than we had in 2007. The only thing that could stop it is a really poor holiday hiring season which isn’t in the forecast.

Eastern Idaho

Eastern Idaho - continued

Short-Term Outlook

Federal budget cuts could be a game changer for eastern Idaho though. One in five jobs between Pocatello and Rexburg are directly or indirectly linked to the Idaho National Lab. Our unemployment rates have always been below the state and US but a significant budget cut could spoil our record.

Long-Term Outlook

In the long term we will still be looking at federal budget conditions. In the northern counties of eastern Idaho they are hoping to see higher prices for mining products – molybdenum and cobalt. A new cobalt mine would provide some great mining jobs once up and running.

Employment growth is slow but positive. Wholesale trade performed well this year. Most of this is due to ag

markets with high crop yields. We experienced 11% wholesale trade employment growth over the same period a year earlier. That growth has been tempered as the year went on and we are sitting at 2.6 % in August. Retail trade, education, health services have also performed well. Leisure and hospitality jobs have been growing steadily - a good sign of consumer confidence.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm

Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger

Thank Thank You!You!Bob Uhlenkott

Bob.uhlenkott@labor.idaho.gov208.332.3570 ext. 3217

Education and Training Pay!

Workforce Information Planning 2012/2013

Formula Grant - $338,014. 2012/2013 Workforce Information Plan is due June

15, 2012. This is your plan and needs to be endorsed by the

Workforce Development Council.

Core Deliverables: Populate the WIDb database Produce industry and occupational employment projections Develop and maintain web delivery of Labor Market Information Publish auxiliary LMI research and consult with the Workforce

Development Council

Job Creation With Health Benefits

To reach the 40,000 job creation metric Idaho needs annualized job growth rates of around 1.5 percent. And to reach the health insurance metric around 1.2 percent annualized growth rates over four years.

Measure - “Create 40,000 jobs with at least two-thirds with $12.00 or better wage rates with health benefits by 2015.”

Idaho’s Fringe Benefits Survey found that around 78 percent of employees that were making at least $12.00 per hour were offered medical insurance in 2011.

Idaho’s U3 as a Percent of the U6 Unemployment Rate