economic & societal impacts of nowcasting & very short range forecasting in developing...

Economic & Societal Impacts of Nowcasting & Very Short Range Forecasting

in Developing Countries and User Concerns (Pakistan Perspective)

Azmat HayatSenior Meteorologist

Pakistan Meteorological DepartmentIslamabad-Pakistan

pmd@pakmet.com.pk

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Economies of developing countries like Pakistan are more vulnerable to weather related hazards due to;

• Weak infrastructure • Less public & institutional

awareness in coping extreme weather events

• Non-coordinated mitigation strategies and

• Poor responses to hazardous weather warnings.

The Rationale

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

As such, there is a strong need to evaluate;

• Economic & Societal impacts of now-casting

• Give due considerations to user concerns for their improved & timely response against weather warnings and alerts.

Accordingly, this study is conducted to list important areas of as per users visions.

The Rationale

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

In South Asia, observational tools being used in now-casting & very short range forecasting by NMSs are;

• Real-time automated and/or manned weather observations,

• Radar echo maps, • Satellite imageries, • Wind profilers, • Lightning detection systems, • Real-time weather maps and • Meso-scale numerical guidance products.

Basic Tools

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Value of High Impact Weather Phenomena

High impact weather phenomena pose significant threats and have large negative impacts on aviation and commerce industry in Pakistan. Reliable forecasts of thunderstorms are a high priority for many agencies whose missions and operations are affected due to such conditions. These include;•Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) •National Highway Authority (NHA)•Federal Emergency Relief Cell (FERC)•The Expedition Groups •Defence Ministry, and of course, •The Airlines

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Aviation Sector Concerns

Flight operations in national routes are mostly of short duration (at the most three hours) in most of developing countries.

Flight crew ranked now-casting as the most effective tool for scheduled flight operations.

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

User‘s Concerns

General public preferred reliable short range forecast with sufficient lead-time of more value to them.

Management of airlines recommended reliable very short range forecasts to make the industry a leisure for users.

Vlalue of Short Range Forecast lead time to Aviation Users

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WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Economic Impacts

Very short range reliable forecasts can play vital role in economic prosperity of aviation sector and in turn, positive impact on aviation users in terms of commitment / satisfaction.

PIA; national carrier of Pakistan suffered a loss of rupees 5 million just in one month (January 2005) in lieu of non operation of flights for northern areas due to bad weather.

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Economic & Sociatal Impacts

Out of 48 scheduled flights, only twelve could be operated.

This situation caused problems for more than four thousand families.

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

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Weather Related Economic Impacts on Aviation ( PIA )

___Loss ($ m) Flights affected(%)Based on (2001-2004) data

%$m

Economic Impacts

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Water & Power Development Authority

National Power Control Centre

No.CENPCC/2080 Islamabad the 27.02.1999

Director General,Meteorological Department

H-8/2, Islamabad

Subject: IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER REPORTS FOR LOAD FORECAST.

Thanking you for the prompt attention to our requests. It will be appreciative to explain that daily weather reports help this centre in accurate Load Forecasts for the day. Based on Load Forecasts, demand is placed on IPP’s thermal units.

On 2-7-1998, WAPDA saved Rs.12.3 million for not demanding HUBCO unit, as your report had a forecast of Rain at Lahore, which proved correct.

Concerned with weather of each city related to Load in turn, the undersigned shall be grateful if you supply us every minute weather details.

(HABIB ULLAH)Chief Engineer NPCC

Societal Impacts

The 1992 flooding in Pakistan was the most extreme event in terms of its magnitude, severity and damages due to;

•Public was not convinced of the genuine nature of impending danger

•Problems with the translation of forecasts and

•Deficiencies in forecast communication were experienced.

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Societal Impacts

The 1992 experience resulted in a positive societal response in relation to awareness and mitigation based on weather warnings.

1997 flood was the 2nd highest on record but the loss of lives was minimal due to effective warnings and positive response of peoples en-route to flood waters.

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Societal Impacts

On 23rd July 2001, after 10 hours of continuous downpour from 0100-1300 GMT, in somewhat cloudburst proportion, resulted flash floods in local streams of the Capital Islamabad.

It was the worst flash flood ever experienced in the twin cities.

Flash Floods warnings given in news media (TV/Radio) and local authorities arranged announcements through speakers as well ( 5 hours lead-time and a maximum of half hour is required to walk away from the area).

The police force was also used to evacuate public from danger zone. However, due to non-cooperation of encroachers, 61 people dead mainly women & children. WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting

(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Societal Impacts

WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting(Toulouse France, 5-9 September 2005)

Public is sensitized after this tragic event. In case of any severe weather, public calls to weather office increase many fold.

for Contributing in addressing Users needs thereby educating people to know the efforts WMO and NMHSs make for protecting their lives from harsh weather episodes.

for Contributing in addressing Users needs thereby educating people to know the efforts WMO and NMHSs make for protecting their lives from harsh weather episodes.