economic indicators bulletin in southeastern europe/media/com/2015/files/internati… · expressly...
Post on 25-Aug-2020
7 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
NOVEMBER 2015 – Νο. 35
All the content of the present document, including any kind of archives or files, constitutes intellectual property and is protected as such by both Greek and international law. Hence it is expressly forbidden to reproduce, reprint, copy, store, sell, transmit, distribute, publish or translate the present document, in whole, in part or in summary without the previous written consent of the beneficiary, that being Piraeus Bank. The above enjoinment does not include the storing or copying of parts of the present document in a simple personal computer for strictly personal use without any intention of commercial or other utilization and without in any way implying any relinquishment of intellectual ownership rights
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
During the first few months of 2015H2, we observed a stabilizing trend – and in some countries even an improvement – in the non-performing loans ratio. This trend resulted from the coordinated efforts of the region’s Central Banks to tackle the high levels of non-performing loans and to improve the loan portfolio, with the aim of starting a recovery in credit expansion and economic activity.
• In Albania, non-performing loans amounted to 20.23% of total loans in September compared to 20.03% in June and 24.88% in September last year.
• In Bulgaria, non-performing loans amounted to 18.3% of total loans in September compared to 18.7% in June and 18.1% in September last year.
• In Cyprus, non-performing loans amounted to 46.0% of total loans in September compared to 47.3% in June.
• In Romania, non-performing loans amounted to 12.33% of total loans in September compared to 12.8% in June and 15.3% in September last year.
• In Serbia, non-performing loans amounted to 22.0% of total loans in September compared to 22.8% in June and 23.0% in September last year.
Bilateral Exchange Rates vs. the Euro (30th November 2015)
CDS 5Y USD
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
LEK
RON
RSD
%
Year to Date Change
Devaluation Revaluation
200250300350400450500550600650700
80100120140160180200220240
1-Oc
t-14
23-O
ct-14
14-N
ov-1
46-
Dec-1
428
-Dec
-14
19-Ja
n-15
10-Fe
b-15
4-M
ar-15
26-M
ar-1
517
-Apr
-159-
May
-1531
-May
-15
22-Ju
n-15
14-Ju
l-15
5-Au
g-15
27-A
ug-1
518
-Sep-
1510
-Oct-
151-
Nov-1
523
-Nov
-15
basis pointsbasis points
Bulgaria(L) Romania(L) Cyprus(R )
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, Bloomberg
2
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
Α. ALBANIA • In Jan-Oct, the fiscal deficit contracted to 1.3% of GDP from 2.4% in Jan-Oct 2014, due to a decrease in public spending to 22.6% from 23.8% for the same periods. In Jan-Oct, revenues amounted to 21.3% of GDP from 21.4% in the same period last year. (Graph 1.2)
• In September, private sector lending contracted for a third consecutive month, falling by 2.3% YoY from an increase of 1.7% in September last year, as business loans decreased by 4.1% from an increase of 2.3% for the same months. Household lending increased by 2.5% YoY in September compared to 0.5% in September last year, while private sector deposits increased by 1.2% from 0.2% in the same months. (Graphs 1.5 & 1.8) 1.0 Real GDP & Economic Sentiment Index 1.1 Inflation, Base Effect & Food Prices
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Q4 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q2 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q4 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q2 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q4 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q2 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q4 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q2 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q4 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q2 2
015
Q3 2
015
% YoY
Real GDP(L) Economic Sentiment Indicator(R )
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Oct
-11
Jan-
12
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-
14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
% YoY%
Base Effect (t-12) (L) Inflation ( R) Food Prices ( R)
1.2 Fiscal Balance 1.3 Current Account Deficit
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Janu
ary
Jan.
-Feb
.
Jan.
-Mar
.
Jan.
-Apr
.
Jan.
-May
Jan.
-Jun.
Jan.
-July
Jan.
-Aug
.
Jan.
-Sep
.
Jan.
-Oct
.
Jan.
-Nov
.
Jan.
-Dec
.
% GDP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Q I 2
013
Q II
201
3
Q II
I 201
3
Q IV
201
3
Q I 2
014
Q II
201
4
Q II
I 201
4
Q IV
201
4
Q I 2
015
Q2
2015
% GDP
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
3
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
1.4 Employment Expectations 1.5 Private Sector Deposits & Unemployment Rate
-30-25-20-15-10-505
101520
Q1 2
009
Q3 2
009
Q1 2
010
Q3 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q3 2
015
Current Employment SitutationEmployment Expectations
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Sep-
10
Mar
-11
Sep-
11
Mar
-12
Sep-
12
Mar
-13
Sep-
13
Mar
-14
Sep-
14
Mar
-15
Sep-
15
%% YoY
Deposits(L) Unemployment Rate(R ) 1.6 Loan Portfolio Quality 1.7 NPLs & Capital Adequacy Ratio
79.8%
5.2%
4.4%
10.6%
20.2%
Loan Portfolio Quality September 2015
Standard exposures Sub-standard loansDoubtful loans Loss loans
60
65
70
75
80
85
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q3 20
09
Q1 20
10
Q3 20
10
Q1 20
11
Q3 20
11
Q1 20
12
Q3 20
12
Q1 20
13
Q3 20
13
Q1 20
14
Q3 20
14
Q1 20
15
Q3 20
15
%%
Non-Performing Loans % Total Loans (L)Capital Adequacy Ratio-(TIER-1) ( R)
1.8 Private Sector Credit & Deposits 1.9 Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Aug-0
8Ja
n-09
Jun-
09No
v-09
Apr-1
0Se
p-10
Feb-
11Ju
l-11
Dec-1
1M
ay-1
2Oc
t-12
Mar
-13
Aug-1
3Ja
n-14
Jun-
14No
v-14
Apr-1
5Se
p-15
% YoY
Credit Deposits
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Nov-1
1Fe
b-12
May
-12
Aug-1
2No
v-12
Feb-
13M
ay-1
3Au
g-13
Nov-1
3Fe
b-14
May
-14
Aug-1
4No
v-14
Feb-
15M
ay-1
5Au
g-15
Nov-1
5
Interest rate EUR/ALL MCI
Tight MCEasing MC
Note: The index is a weighted sum of the annual change in the policy rate (60% weight) and the fx rate (40% weight).
2.0 EUR/ALL & Imports to Exports Coverage 2.1 Central Bank’s Lending Survey in the next Q.
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
Sep-
11
Jan-1
2
May
-12
Sep-
12
Jan-1
3
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-1
4
May
-14
Sep-
14
Jan-1
5
May
-15
Sep-
15
EUR/ALL (L) Percentage of Cover ( R)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2009
Q3
2010
Q1
2010
Q3
2011
Q1
2011
Q3
2012
Q1
2012
Q3
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2014
Q1
2014
Q3
2015
Q1
2015
Q3
Business loans Households loans
Easing of Credit Standards
Tightening of Credit Standards
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
4
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
Β. BULGARIA • In Jan-Sep, the fiscal balance posted a surplus of 0.8% of GDP compared to a deficit of 1.8% in Jan-Sep last year, as revenues increased significantly to 29.1% of GDP from 26.2% in the same period last year. Public spending in Jan-Sep was 27.6% of GDP from 27.2% in Jan-Sep last year. (Graph 1.2)
• In October, private sector credit contracted further by 10.2% YoY from an increase of 1.9% in October 2014, as business loans decreased by 14.7% from an increase of 3.0% for the same months. Household lending contracted by 1.2% in October from a marginal increase of 0.01% in October 2014, while there was a private sector increase of 0.9% YoY from 5.4% for the same months. (Graph 2.0)
1.0 Leading Indicators 1.1 Inflation & Base Effect
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Oct-0
8Ap
r-09
Oct-0
9Ap
r-10
Oct-1
0Ap
r-11
Oct-1
1Ap
r-12
Oct-1
2Ap
r-13
Oct-1
3Ap
r-14
Oct-1
4Ap
r-15
Oct-1
5
Consumer Confidence Index(L)
Industrial Confidence Indicator(L)
Economic Sentiment Index(R)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
Oct-1
2
Jan-1
3
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct-1
3
Jan-1
4
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct-1
4
Jan-1
5
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct-1
5
%
Base Effect (L) Inflation (R) Food Prices (R)
% YoY
1.2 Fiscal Balance 1.3 Current Account Balance
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nove
mber
Dece
mbe
r
% GDP
2012 2013 2014 2015
-2-2-1-10112233
Sep-
11D
ec-1
1M
ar-1
2Ju
n-12
Sep-
12D
ec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13D
ec-1
3M
ar-1
4Ju
n-14
Sep-
14D
ec-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-
15
% GDP
Current Account Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
5
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
1.4 Fiscal Reserves 1.5 Industrial Production & Retail Sales
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-
10M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-
12M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-
14M
ar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-
15
EUR bn.
Fiscal Reserves
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Sep-0
9De
c-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-1
1De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-1
3De
c-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-1
5
% YoY
Industrial Production (6m MA) Retail Sales (6m MA) 1.6 Unemployment Rate 1.7 Foreign Claims
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-
15
%
Unemployment R ate
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sep-
08De
c-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09Se
p-09
Dec-
09M
ar-1
0Ju
n-10
Sep-
10De
c-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11Se
p-11
Dec-
11M
ar-1
2Ju
n-12
Sep-
12De
c-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13Se
p-13
Dec-
13M
ar-1
4Ju
n-14
Sep-
14De
c-14
Mar
-15
% Bulgaria's GDP
Austrian Bank s Greek Banks Italian Banks 1.8 FX Reserves & Monetary Base 1.9 Unemployment Rate, NPLs & Capital Adequacy
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar-1
0Jun
-10Se
p-10
Dec-1
0Ma
r-11
Jun-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar-1
2Jun
-12Se
p-12
Dec-1
2Ma
r-13
Jun-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar-1
4Jun
-14Se
p-14
Dec-1
4Ma
r-15
Jun-15
Sep-
15
%
FX Reserves as % Short-Term External Debt(R )Reserves/Monetary Base(L)
0
5
10
15
20
579
111315171921232527
2009
q2
2009
q3
2009
q4
2010
q1
2010
q2
2010
q3
2010
q4
2011
q1
2011
q2
2011
q3
2011
q4
2012
q1
2012
q2
2012
q3
2012
q4
2013
q1
2013
q2
2013
q3
2013
q4
2014
q1
2014
q2
2014
q3
2014
q4
2015
q1
2015
q2
%%
Tier I Capital Adequacy ratio (L)
NPLs % of total (R )
Unemployment rate (R) 2.0 Deposits & Unemployment Rate 2.1 Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Oct-0
9Fe
b-10
Jun-
10Oc
t-10
Feb-
11Ju
n-11
Oct-1
1Fe
b-12
Jun-
12Oc
t-12
Feb-
13Ju
n-13
Oct-1
3Fe
b-14
Jun-
14Oc
t-14
Feb-
15Ju
n-15
Oct-1
5
%% YoY
Deposits(L) Unemployment R ate(R )
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
Oct-1
1
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct-1
2
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct-1
3
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct-1
4
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct-1
5
Nomi nal Effective Exchange Rate Interest rate MCINote: The index is a weighted av erage of the annual change in interest rate SOFIBOR-3m (60% weight) and the nominal weighted f x rate (Nominal Ef f ective Exchange Rate - NEER, 40% weight)
Tight MCEasing MC
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources, BIS
6
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
C. CYPRUS • In Jan-Aug, the fiscal surplus contracted by 0.1% of GDP compared to 0.9% in Jan-Aug 2014, as revenues decreased by 2.2% YoY and public spending increased by 1.1% YoY. (Graph 1.2)
• In October, total credit contracted by 2.4% YoY from a decrease of 3.0% in October 2014, as business and household loans both contracted at a similar rate. It is worth noting that private sector deposits increased in October for the first time since December 2012, specifically by 0.4% YoY from -4.9% in the same month last year. (Graph 2.0)
1.0 Real GDP & Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) 1.1 Inflation & Base Effect
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Sep-
05M
ar-0
6Se
p-06
Mar
-07
Sep-
07M
ar-0
8Se
p-08
Mar
-09
Sep-
09M
ar-1
0Se
p-10
Mar
-11
Sep-
11M
ar-1
2Se
p-12
Mar
-13
Sep-
13M
ar-1
4Se
p-14
Mar
-15
Sep-
15
% YoY
GDP (L) Economic Sentiment Indicator (R )
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Oct-1
1
Feb-
12
Jun-
12
Oct-1
2
Feb-
13
Jun-
13
Oct-1
3
Feb-
14
Jun-
14
Oct-1
4
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct-1
5
%
Base Effect Inflation Food Prices 1.2 Fiscal Balance 1.3 Public Debt
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nove
mbe
r
Dece
mbe
r
% GDP
2012 2013 2014 2015
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jun-
07
Dec-
07
Jun-
08
Dec-
08
Jun-
09
Dec-
09
Jun-
10
Dec-
10
Jun-
11
Dec-
11
Jun-
12
Dec-
12
Jun-
13
Dec-
13
Jun-
14
Dec-
14
Jun-
15
% GDP
Net Tot al Debt
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
7
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
1.4 Current Account Balance (6m MA) 1.5 Industrial Production, Retail Sales & Tourist Arrivals
-18.0
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
Jun-
08De
c-08
Jun-
09De
c-09
Jun-
10De
c-10
Jun-
11De
c-11
Jun-
12De
c-12
Jun-
13De
c-13
Jun-
14De
c-14
Jun-
15
% GDP
Current Account Deficit
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
Oct-1
1
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct-1
2
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct-1
3
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct-1
4
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5
Oct-1
5
% YoY
Industr ial P roduction Retail SalesTourist Arr ivals
1.6 Mortgage Loans & Producer’s Price Index in Construction
1.7 Construction Cost & Building Permits
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar-1
0Ju
n-10
Sep-
10De
c-10
Mar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar-1
2Ju
n-12
Sep-
12De
c-12
Mar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar-1
4Ju
n-14
Sep-
14De
c-14
Mar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-
15
% YoY% YoY
Mortgages(L)
Producers' Price Index in Construction(R)
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Oc
t-10
Jan-1
1Ap
r-11
Jul-1
1Oc
t-11
Jan-1
2Ap
r-12
Jul-1
2Oc
t-12
Jan-1
3Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3Oc
t-13
Jan-1
4Ap
r-14
Jul-1
4Oc
t-14
Jan-1
5Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5Oc
t-15
% YoY% YoY
Building Permits (R,3m MA)Construction Cost Index(L)
1.8 EUR/GBP & Tourism Revenues 1.9 Unemployment Rate
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
Jun-09
Nov-0
9
Apr-1
0
Sep-
10
Feb-
11
Jul-1
1
Dec-1
1
May
-12
Oct-1
2
Mar
-13
Aug-1
3
Jan-1
4
Jun-14
Nov-1
4
Apr-1
5
Sep-
15
EUR mn.
EUR/GBP (L) Tour ist revenues, 12-M Mov ing Average ( R)
02468
1012141618
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-
15
%
Unemployment Rate
2.0 Loans & Deposits 2.1 Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Oct-0
9
Feb-
10
Jun-
10
Oct-1
0
Feb-
11
Jun-
11
Oct-1
1
Feb-
12
Jun-
12
Oct-1
2
Feb-
13
Jun-
13
Oct-1
3
Feb-
14
Jun-
14
Oct-1
4
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct-1
5
% ΥοΥ
Loans Deposits
Residents Deposits Rest of t he World Deposits
-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0
Oct-1
1De
c-11
Feb-
12Ap
r-12
Jun-
12Au
g-12
Oct-1
2De
c-12
Feb-
13Ap
r-13
Jun-
13Au
g-13
Oct-1
3De
c-13
Feb-
14Ap
r-14
Jun-
14Au
g-14
Oct-1
4De
c-14
Feb-
15Ap
r-15
Jun-
15Au
g-15
Oct-1
5
Nomi nal Effective Exchange RateInterest rateMCI
Note: The index is a weighted average of the annual change in interest rate EURIBOR-3m (60% weight) and the nominal weighted fx rate (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate - NEER, 40% weight)
Tight MCEasing MC
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
8
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
D. ROMANIA • In Jan-Oct, the fiscal surplus widened to 1.3% of GDP from 0.3% in Jan-Oct 2014, as public spending declined to 26.1% of GDP from 26.3% for the same periods. Revenues increased to 27.4% of GDP in Jan-Oct from 26.6% for the same period last year. (Graph 1.2)
• Total credit in October increased by 0.5% YoY from -3.2% in October last year, while private sector credit increased by 0.3% from -3.3% in the same months. Local currency loans in the private sector increased by 16.0% in October from 8.3% in the same month last year, whereas foreign currency loans contracted by 11.9% from -11.2% in the same months. Total deposits increased by 7.5% YoY in October from 8.0% in October 2014, while private sector deposits increased by 7.2% from 4.8% for the same months. (Graphs 1.8 & 1.9)
1.0 Leading Indicators 1.1 Inflation & Base Effect
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Sep-
04M
ar-0
5Se
p-05
Mar
-06
Sep-
06M
ar-0
7Se
p-07
Mar
-08
Sep-
08M
ar-0
9Se
p-09
Mar
-10
Sep-
10M
ar-1
1Se
p-11
Mar
-12
Sep-
12M
ar-1
3Se
p-13
Mar
-14
Sep-
14M
ar-1
5Se
p-15
% YoY
GDP (L) Economic Sentiment Indicator (R )
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.2
0.40.60.81.01.2
Oct-1
1
Feb-
12
Jun-
12
Oct-1
2
Feb-
13
Jun-
13
Oct-1
3
Feb-
14
Jun-
14
Oct-1
4
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct-1
5
% YoY%
Base Effect(L) Inflation(R ) Food Prices(R )
1.2 Fiscal Balance 1.3 Current Account Balance
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nove
mbe
r
Dece
mbe
r
% GDP
2012 2013 2014 2015
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
Jan-
13Fe
b-13
Mar
-13
Apr-
13M
ay-1
3Ju
n-13
Jul-1
3Au
g-13
Sep-
13O
ct-1
3N
ov-1
3D
ec-1
3Ja
n-14
Feb-
14M
ar-1
4Ap
r-14
May
-14
Jun-
14Ju
l-14
Aug-
14Se
p-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
Jan-
15Fe
b-15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15M
ay-1
5Ju
n-15
Jul-1
5Au
g-15
Sep-
15O
ct-1
5
% GDP
Curren t Account Balance
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
9
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
1.4 Non-Performing Loans 1.5 Industrial Production & Exports
10
15
20
25
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan-
14Fe
b-14
Mar
-14
Apr-
14M
ay-1
4Ju
n-14
Jul-1
4Au
g-14
Sep-
14O
ct-1
4N
ov-1
4D
ec-1
4Ja
n-15
Feb-
15M
ar-1
5Ap
r-15
May
-15
Jun-
15Ju
l-15
Aug-
15Se
p-15
%
NPLs as % of Total Loans
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sep-
10
Jan-
11
May
-11
Sep-
11
Jan-
12
May
-12
Sep-
12
Jan-
13
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep-
14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep-
15
% YoY% YoY
Industr ial Production, 6-M MA (L) Exports, 6-M MA ( R)
1.6 Unemployment Rate 1.7 FX Reserves as % of Short-Term External Debt
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
7.1
7.2
7.3
Sep-
09De
c-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10Se
p-10
Dec-
10M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep-
11De
c-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-
12M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep-
13De
c-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14Se
p-14
Dec-
14M
ar-1
5Ju
n-15
Sep-
15
Unemployment Rate
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
Sep-
09Jan
-10
May
-10Se
p-10
Jan-1
1M
ay-11
Sep-
11Jan
-12
May
-12Se
p-12
Jan-1
3M
ay-13
Sep-
13Jan
-14
May
-14Se
p-14
Jan-1
5M
ay-15
Sep-
15
EUR mn.
FX Reserves (L)
FX Reserves % Short-Term External Debt ( R) 1.8 Credit Expansion & FX Rate 1.9 Deposits & Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.9
4
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Aug-
10
Dec-1
0
Apr-1
1
Aug-
11
Dec-1
1
Apr-1
2
Aug-
12
Dec-1
2
Apr-1
3
Aug-
13
Dec-1
3
Apr-1
4
Aug-
14
Dec-1
4
Apr-1
5
Aug-
15
% ΥοΥ
Private Sector Loans(L) Private Sector Loans in FX(L)
EUR/RON(R )
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
6.80
7.00
7.20
7.40
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Aug-
10
Dec-1
0
Apr-1
1
Aug-
11
Dec-1
1
Apr-1
2
Aug-
12
Dec-1
2
Apr-1
3
Aug-
13
Dec-1
3
Apr-1
4
Aug-
14
Dec-1
4
Apr-1
5
Aug-
15
% ΥοΥ
Private Sector Deposits(L) Unemployment R ate(R ) 2.0 Unemployment Rate & Capital Adequacy 2.1 Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)
5
6
6
7
7
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008
Q2
2008
Q4
2009
Q2
2009
Q4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011
Q2
2011
Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
% %
Capital adequacy (Α) Unemployment( R)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Sep-
10
Jan-1
1
May
-11
Sep-
11
Jan-1
2
May
-12
Sep-
12
Jan-1
3
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-1
4
May
-14
Sep-
14
Jan-1
5
May
-15
Sep-
15
Nomi nal Effectiv e Exchange Rate Interest rate MCI
Note: The index is a weighted av erage of the annual change in interest rate SOFIBOR-3m (60% weight) and the nominal weighted f x rate (Nominal Ef f ective Exchange Rate - NEER, 40% weight)
Tight MCEasing MC
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
10
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
Ε. SERBIA • In Jan-Oct, the fiscal deficit shrank significantly to 1.6% of GDP from 4.4% in Jan-Oct 2014 due to a decrease in public spending. Specifically, in Jan-Oct, revenues were 34.6% of GDP from 37.3% in Jan-Oct last year, while public spending decreased significantly to 36.2% from 41.7% for the same periods. (Graph 1.2)
• In October , total loans increased by 3.1% YoY from 1.1% in the same month in 2014, with business and household lending both increasing. Total deposits increased by 5.8% YoY in October from 5.9% in October last year. (Graph 2.0)
1.0 Leading Indicators 1.1 Inflation & Base Effect
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Sep-
10Ja
n-11
May
-11
Sep-
11Ja
n-12
May
-12
Sep-
12Ja
n-13
May
-13
Sep-
13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Jan-
15M
ay-1
5Se
p-15
% YoY
Industrial Production Retail Trade
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Oct
-11
Feb-
12
Jun-
12
Oct
-12
Feb-
13
Jun-
13
Oct
-13
Feb-
14
Jun-
14
Oct
-14
Feb-
15
Jun-
15
Oct
-15
% YoY%
Base Effect(L) Inflation(R ) Food Prices(R )
1.2 Fiscal Balance 1.3 Current Account Balance
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Octo
ber
Nove
mbe
r
Dece
mbe
r
% GDP
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
5
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
Sep-
15
% GDP
Current Account Deficit
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources
11
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
1.4 Carry Over Effect 1.5 Retail Sales & Real Wages
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
percentage points
Carry-over effect Growth within the yearReal GDP growth
-25-20-15-10
-505
10152025
Oct-0
8Ja
n-09
Apr-0
9Ju
l-09
Oct-0
9Ja
n-10
Apr-1
0Ju
l-10
Oct-1
0Ja
n-11
Apr-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct-1
5
% YoY
Retail Trade Wages 1.6 Public Debt 1.7 Foreign Claims
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Oct-1
5
% GDP
Public Debt
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
Sep-
08De
c-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09Se
p-09
Dec-
09M
ar-1
0Ju
n-10
Sep-
10De
c-10
Mar
-11
Jun-
11Se
p-11
Dec-
11M
ar-1
2Ju
n-12
Sep-
12De
c-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13Se
p-13
Dec-
13M
ar-1
4Ju
n-14
Sep-
14De
c-14
Mar
-15
% Serbia's GDP
Austrian Bank s Greek Banks Italian Banks
1.8 Central Bank Interventions in the Domestic FX Market & EUR/RSD
1.9 Capital Adequacy & NPLs
100
105
110
115
120
125
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Apr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct-1
5
EUR mn.
NBS Interventions i n the FX Market(R ) FX Rate EUR/RSD(R )
Sell EUR mn.Buy EUR mn.
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
Q1 2
010
Q2 2
010
Q3 2
010
Q4 2
010
Q1 2
011
Q2 2
011
Q3 2
011
Q4 2
011
Q1 2
012
Q2 2
012
Q3 2
012
Q4 2
012
Q1 2
013
Q2 2
013
Q3 2
013
Q4 2
013
Q1 2
014
Q2 2
014
Q3 2
014
Q4 2
014
Q1 2
015
Q2 2
015
Q3 2
015
Capital Adequacy Ratio(L) NPL % total loans(R ) 2.0 Private Sector Deposits & Credit 2.1 Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oct-1
0Fe
b-11
Jun-
11Oc
t-11
Feb-
12Ju
n-12
Oct-1
2Fe
b-13
Jun-
13Oc
t-13
Feb-
14Ju
n-14
Oct-1
4Fe
b-15
Jun-
15Oc
t-15
% YoY
Deposits Credit
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Oct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr-1
2Ju
l-12
Oct-1
2Ja
n-13
Apr-1
3Ju
l-13
Oct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr-1
4Ju
l-14
Oct-1
4Ja
n-15
Apr-1
5Ju
l-15
Oct-1
5
Nomi nal Effectiv e Exchange Rate
Interest rate
MCI
Note: The index is a weighted average of the annual change in policy rate (60% weight) and the nominal weighted fx rate (Nominal Effective Exchange Rate).
Tight MCEasing MC
Source: Piraeus Bank Research, Datastream, National Sources, BIS
12
ECONOMIC INDICATORS BULLETIN FOR SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE
Economic Research & Investment Strategy Lekkos Ilias Chief Economist +30210 3288120 Lekkosi@piraeusbank.gr
Greek Economy Staggel Irini Manager +30216 3004495 Staggelir@piraeusbank.gr
Aggelopoulou Anastasia Economist +30216 3004488 Aggelopouloua@piraeusbank.gr
Gavalas Dimitrios Junior Economic Analyst +30216 3004484 GavalasD@piraeusbank.gr
Developed Economies Patikis Vasileios Head +30210 3739178 Patikisv@piraeusbank.gr
Polychronopoulos Dionysis Senior Economist +30216 3004493 Polychronopoulosd@piraeusbank.gr
Arakelian Veni Senior Economist +30216 3004492 Arakelianv@piraeusbank.gr
Papakostas Chrysovalantis Economic Analyst +30216 3004491 Papakostasc@piraeusbank.gr
Konstantoy Evangelia Junior Economic Analyst +30216 3004486 Konstantoue@piraeusbank.gr
Developing Economies Rotsika Dimitria Economist +30216 3004494 Rotsikad@piraeusbank.gr
Giannakidis Charilaos Junior Economic Analyst +30216 3004485 Giannakidisch@piraeusbank.gr
Sectoral Studies Vlachou Paraskevi Economic Analyst +30216 3004483 Vlachoupar@piraeusbank.gr
Institutional & Regulatory Developments Leventakis Artemis Senior Economist +30216 3004487 Leventakisar@piraeusbank.gr
Margariti Konstantina Junior Economic Analyst +30216 3004489 Margaritik@piraeusbank.gr
Secretary Papioti Evaggelia Secretary +30210 3288187 Papiotie@piraeusbank.gr Disclaimer: This note constitute an investment advertisement, is intended solely for information purposes and it cannot in any way be considered investment advice, offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction. The information included in this note may not be construed as suitable investment for the holder, nor may it be considered as an instrument to accomplish specific investment goals or relevant financial needs of the holder and may neither be reckoned as a substitute to relevant contractual agreements between the Bank and the holder. Before entering into any transaction each individual investor should evaluate the information contained in this note and not base his/her decision solely on the information provided. This note cannot be considered investment research and consequently it was not compiled by Piraeus Bank according to the requirements of the law that are intended to ensure independence in the sector of investment research. Information comprised in this note is based on publically available sources that are considered to be reliable. Piraeus Bank cannot be held accountable for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this note. Views and estimates brought forward in this note represent domestic and international market trends on the date indicated in the note and they are subject to alteration without previous warning. Piraeus Bank may also include in this note investment research done by third parties. This information is not modified in any way, consequently the Bank cannot be held accountable for the content. The Piraeus Bank Group is and organization with a considerable domestic and international presence, and provides a great variety of investment services. In cases where conflicts of interest issues should arise while Piraeus Bank or the rest of the companies of the group provide investment services in relation to the information provided in this note, Piraeus Bank and the companies of the Group should be underlined that (the list is not exhaustive): a) No restrictions apply in dealing for own account, or with regards to trading in relation to portfolios managed by Piraeus Bank or companies of its group before the publication of this note, or with regards to trading before an initial public offer. b) It is possible that investment or additional services are provided to the issuers included in this note against a fee. c) It is possible that Bank or any of its subsidiaries participate in the share capital of any of the issuers included in this note or may attract other interests financial or not from them. d) The Bank or any of its subsidiaries may act a market maker or an underwriter for any of the issuers included in the note. e) Piraeus Bank may have issued similar notes with different or incompatible content with the content of this note. It should be explicitly noted that: a) Figures refer to past performances and past performances do not constitute a safe indication for future performances. b) Figures constitute simulation of past performances and they are not a safe indication of future performances. c) Any projections or other estimates are not safe indications for future performances. d) Taxation treatment of information provided in this note may differ according to the rules that govern each individual investor. Therefore the holder should seek independent advice in relation to taxation rules that may affect him/her. e) Piraeus Bank is not under any obligation to keep data and information provided herein updated.
top related