early history of ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling

Early History of Ecological Niche Modeling and Species Distribution

Modeling

Town Peterson

University of Kansas

SEND QUESTIONS TO biodivtraining@gmail.com

An Exciting Analytical Functionality

• ENM – estimate the ecological niche; SDM –estimate the distribution

• Information on geographic distribution is a crucial currency in many aspects of biodiversity science:– Invasive species biology– Conservation biology– Biogeography– Macroecology

• ENM/SDM offers a means of obtaining such information via analysis of ‘cheap’ and commonly available data

Publication Rate in ENM/SDM

Year

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Publication Rate in ENM/SDM

Year

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Publication of Phillips et al. 2006Elith et al. 2006

Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives

– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP

• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school

• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born

Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives

– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP

• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school

• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born

Early Niche Confusions

The 'niche' of an animal means its place in the biotic environment, its relations

to food and enemies

mixes requirements with role…

same word, multiple and very-different meanings

Rome News-Tribune, 1952

Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives

– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP

• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school

• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born

What about Grinnell?????

Mexico: Arturo Gómez-Pompa

CLIMEX• Species’ ecological niche defined in terms of

response to environment vs and environments in which it can persist

• An interesting mixture of correlational and process-based characteristics

• Population and growth assessed weekly; survival and growth capacity integrated to annual values

• To persist at a site, the species needs to grow sufficiently during the favorable season to offset population losses during inclement season(s)

• The overall potential for persistence is modelled using the Ecoclimatic Index

Taking the Bad With the Good

Time of Year

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Growth Season Survival Season

1.0

-1.0

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Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives

– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP

• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school

• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born

Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives

– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP

• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school

• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born

Outline• Grinnell and early points of light• Early initiatives

– Australia– Mexico– CLIMEX– GAP

• First complex algorithms– Improving on BIOCLIM– GARP– Statistical school

• End of the beginning– Elith et al. 2006 – broad comparative testing– Phillips et al. 2006 – A Star is Born

Major Steps Forward in Early Years

• Niche, not distribution …

• Suitability, not presence …

• Importance of calibration area

• Simplicity versus complexity of models

Future Lessons

• Key nature of model evaluation in creating the image of “good” versus “bad” models

• “Garbage in, garbage out” in modeling and consequent emphasis on data quality

• Individual algorithms less important; correct ecological and biogeographic framework more important

• Crucial need for effective ecological and biogeographic frameworks as a basis for models

SEND QUESTIONS TO biodivtraining@gmail.com

Next Seminar: Donald Hobern

https://plus.google.com/events/choq0i9mdbesr2s696u8hkl9erk

town@ku.edu