e u g reen h ouse g as emission trends and projections andr é jol
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Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas emissions from aviation and navigation emissions from aviation and navigation
17-18 May 200417-18 May 2004, Copenhagen, Copenhagen
EEUU ggreenreenhhouse ouse ggas as emission emission trends and projectionstrends and projections
André JolProject manager climate changeEuropean Environment Agency
2
ContentsContents
1. Legal reporting requirements2. Institutional arrangements3. QA/QC and improvement activities4. Total GHG emission trends5. Aviation and navigation emissions
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Legal basisLegal basis• UNFCCC (in future KP)
• Guidelines on National Communications and annual inventories (FCCC/CP/1999/7, decision 3/CP.5) and 1996 IPCC Guidelines, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management (2000) and LULUCF (carbon sinks) Guidance being developed (2003)
• Marrakech Accords and revised guidelines for inventories, from April 2004 (FCCC/CP/2002/8, decision 18/CP.8)
• EU• Council Decision concerning a mechanism for monitoring
Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol (Decision 280/2004/EC), in force since March 2004
• Implementing provisions under Decision, Draft 2004
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Summary of Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (1)Monitoring Mechanism (1)
• Monitoring the emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse gases and removals by sinks
• Annual GHG inventory reporting by MS to the European Commission
• EU inventory is the Sum of 15 Member States• Member States report their respective data to
UNFCCC• Implementation and annual reporting of national
programmes (including policies and measures) and emission projections to the Commission
• Evaluation of progress and reporting to the European Parliament and Council by the Commission
5
Summary of Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (2)Monitoring Mechanism (2)
• Establishment of EU greenhouse gas inventory system (KP Art. 5.1)
• Internal procedures for the review process and adjustments (KP Art. 5.2 and Art. 8)
• Reporting on accounting of assigned amounts and national registries (KP Art. 7.1, 7.2 and 7.4)
• Supplementary information to be incorporated in the periodic communications to the UNFCCC
• EEA assists in EU GHG inventory and annual evaluation report
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EU MS share the EEU MS share the EUU Kyoto target (-8%), legally Kyoto target (-8%), legally binding through the 2002 Council decision on Ebinding through the 2002 Council decision on EUU Kyoto Protocol ratificationKyoto Protocol ratification
test
Germany -21%
United Kingdom -12.5%
Italy -6.5%
Denmark -21%
Netherlands -6%
Belgium -7.5%
Austria -13%
Luxembourg -28%
Finland 0%
France 0%
Sw eden +4%
Ireland +13%
Portugal +27%
Greece +25%
Spain +15%
-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100
GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)
7
New Member StatesNew Member States have individual targets of –8 %, have individual targets of –8 %, except Hungary and Poland (target of –6%)except Hungary and Poland (target of –6%)
Latvia - 8.0 %
Slovenia - 8.0 %
Lithuania - 8.0 %
Estonia - 8.0 %
Slovakia - 8.0 %
Hungary - 6.0 %
Bulgaria - 8.0 %
Czech Republic - 8.0 %
Romania - 8.0 %
Poland - 6.0 %
- 40 - 35 - 30 - 25 - 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 0
GHG emissions (Million tonnes CO2-eq.)
8
EEUU GHG inventory institutional arrangements GHG inventory institutional arrangements• Member states prepare inventory and participate in EU
Monitoring mechanism committee, and 3 working groups• Working group I promotes improvement of all GHG
inventory quality aspects (transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness, accuracy and use of good practices)
• Working group II promotes improvement of quality of reporting on GHG emission projections
• Working Group III promotes implementation of EU emissions trading scheme
• European Commission (DG ENV) responsible for submission to UNFCCC, assisted by EEA and Eurostat and JRC (and European Topic Centre Air and Climate Change)
• EU “National Inventory Report” follows UNFCCC Guidelines
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Annual process of submissionAnnual process of submission/rev/review of MS iew of MS inventories and compilation of the Einventories and compilation of the EUU inventory inventory (1) (1)
Element Who When
1. Submission of annual greenhouse
gas inventories (complete CRF
submission and elements of the NIR)
Member States 15 January
2. “Initial check” of MS submissions Commission (incl.
Eurostat, JRC), assisted
by EEA
As soon as possible after receipt
of MS data, at the latest by 1
April
3. Compilation of draft EC inventory Commission (incl.
Eurostat, JRC), assisted
by EEA
Up to 28 February
4. Circulation of draft EC inventory Commission (DG ENV)
assisted by EEA
28 February
5. Submission of updated or
additional inventory data and
complete NIR
Member States 15 March
6. Gap filling Commission (DG
ENV), assisted by EEA
31 March
10
Annual process of submissionAnnual process of submission/rev/review of MS iew of MS inventories and compilation of the Einventories and compilation of the EUU inventory inventory (2) (2)
7. Comments from Member State
regarding the estimation method for
the gap filling
Member State affected
by gap filling
8 April
8. Final annual EC inventory (incl.
Community inventory report)
Commission (DG
ENV), assisted by EEA
15 April
9. Circulation of initial check results
of the EC submission to Member
States
Commission (DG ENV)
assisted by EEA
As soon as possible after receipt
of initial check results
10. Response of relevant MS to
initial check results of the EC
submission
Member States within one week from receipt of
the findings
11. Submission of any resubmissions
by MS in response to the UNFCCC
initial checks
Member States Same as under the UNFCCC
initial checks phase. Under the
Kyoto Protocol: the
resubmission should be provided
within five weeks of the
submission due date
12. Submission of any other
resubmission after the initial check
phase
Member States When additional resubmissions
occur
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Requirement to implement National GHG Requirement to implement National GHG Inventory System under Kyoto ProtocolInventory System under Kyoto Protocol
• Institutional, legal and procedural arrangements necessary to perform all functions
• Capacity for timely performance • Single national entity with overall responsibility and
involvement of others (scientific organisations, national statistical institutes, industry, environmental NGOs)
• Inventory QA/QC planning and implementation • Programmes to improve the quality of activity data,
emission factors and methods • Identification of key source categories • Estimation of uncertainties• Recalculation
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EEUU GHG inventory improvement within GHG inventory improvement within the Monitoring mechanismthe Monitoring mechanism
• Eurostat improvement project for national energy balances and annual estimation of EU CO2 emissions (IPCC Reference Approach), workshop in June 2003
• JRC compares national estimates for carbon sinks (focus on forests) (workshops in 2002) and coordinates a project for improving GHG emissions from agriculture (focus on N2O from soils), workshop in Feb. 2003 (exp. meeting in 2004)
• QA/QC of EU inventory depends on QA/QC systems for national GHG inventories, workshop Sep 2004
• Minor differences between EU and Member States’ inventories, which are further being reduced through the UNFCCC review process
13
UNFCCC review processUNFCCC review process
• Initial checks• Centralised review • In-country review• In future KP review procedures• EU MS and Commission need to communicate
outcomes of FCCC review • Review within EU consists mainly of initial checks
14
97,7
92,0
101,6
80
90
100
110
120
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ind
ex
(ba
se y
ea
r =
10
0)
Greenhouse gas emissions Target path 2010
GHG target 2010 CO2 emissions
EU GHG emissions in 2001 were 2.3 % below base year EU GHG emissions in 2001 were 2.3 % below base year levels, but increased 1.0 % from 2000. The EU is not on levels, but increased 1.0 % from 2000. The EU is not on track towards its Kyoto target –8%track towards its Kyoto target –8%
15
EU MS Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto EU MS Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto Protocol (burden sharing) targets for 2008-2012Protocol (burden sharing) targets for 2008-2012
Base year 1) 2001Change
2000–2001 Change base
year–2001
Targets 2008–12 under Kyoto Protocol
and "EU burden sharing"
(million tonnes) (million tonnes) (%) (%) (%)
Austria 78,3 85,9 4,8% 9,6% -13,0%
Belgium 141,2 150,2 0,2% 6,3% -7,5%
Denmark 2)69,5 69,4 1,8% -0,2% (-10,7%) -21,0%
Finland 77,2 80,9 7,3% 4,7% 0,0%
France 558,4 560,8 0,5% 0,4% 0,0%
Germany 1216,2 993,5 1,2% -18,3% -21,0%
Greece 107,0 132,2 1,9% 23,5% 25,0%
Ireland 53,4 70,0 2,7% 31,1% 13,0%
Italy 509,3 545,4 0,3% 7,1% -6,5%
Luxembourg 10,9 6,1 1,3% -44,2% -28,0%
Netherlands 211,1 219,7 1,3% 4,1% -6,0%
Portugal 61,4 83,8 1,9% 36,4% 27,0%
Spain 289,9 382,8 -1,1% 32,1% 15,0%
Sweden 72,9 70,5 2,2% -3,3% 4,0%
United Kingdom 747,2 657,2 1,3% -12,0% -12,5%
EU-15 4204,0 4108,3 1,0% -2,3% -8,0%
MEMBER STATE
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EU MS Greenhouse gas emission burden sharing EU MS Greenhouse gas emission burden sharing targets and changes from base year to 2001targets and changes from base year to 2001
-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
Germany
United Kingdom
Italy
Denmark
Netherlands
Belgium
Austria
Luxembourg
Finland
France
Sw eden
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Spain
GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)
GHG targets
Change base year -2001
17
In 2001, 10 of the 15 Member States are heading towards In 2001, 10 of the 15 Member States are heading towards overshooting their burden sharing target by a wide marginovershooting their burden sharing target by a wide margin
23.9
23.8
21.6
16.8
11.4
10.7
10.5
9.8
7.4
4.7
0.4
-5.2
-5.5
-6.8
-28.8
2.1
- 40 - 30 - 20 - 10 0 + 10 + 20 + 30
Percent points be low (-) or a bove (+) linea r target path
EU-15
Luxembourg
Germany
Sweden
United Kingdom
France
Finland
Netherlands
Greece
Belgium
Italy
Denmark
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
18
In 2001 all new Member States, except Slovenia, were on In 2001 all new Member States, except Slovenia, were on track towards meeting their Kyoto targetstrack towards meeting their Kyoto targets
-31.7
-56.4
-56.3
-51.0
-46.2
-39.4
-28.9
-26.2
-18.6
-14.4
6.0
-70.0 -60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0
CC10
Latvia
Lituania
Estonia
Bulgaria
Romania
Poland
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Slovenia
19
EU GHG emissions show decreases in most sectors, EU GHG emissions show decreases in most sectors, but a large increase from (domestic) transport (20%)but a large increase from (domestic) transport (20%)
2%
-21%
-16%
-2%
-2%
-9%
-20%
1%
21%
-8%
-24%
-6%
-37%
- 40 % - 30 % - 20 % - 10 % 0 % + 10 % + 20 % + 30 %
CO2
CH4
N2O
HFC, PFC & SF6
Energy Industries
Fugitive Emissions
Industry (Energy)
Industry (Processes)
Other (Energy)
Transport
Agriculture
Waste
Other (Non Energy) Waste2%
Other (Non Energy)
0%Agriculture
10%
Transport21%
Energy Industries
28%
Fugitive Emissions
2%
Industry (Energy)
14%Industry (Processes)
6%
Other (Energy)
17%
CO282.4%
HFC, PFC & SF61.4%
N2O8.2%
CH48.0%
20
EU COEU CO22 emissions transport increased much in most emissions transport increased much in most countries, but not in FI, SE and UK, probably because of countries, but not in FI, SE and UK, probably because of
high 1990 emissions and/or high road fuel prices high 1990 emissions and/or high road fuel prices
5%
8%
10%
16%
18%
20%
22%
23%
23%
24%
48%
55%
73%
78%
120%
1%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Finland
United Kingdom
Sweden
Germany
Denmark
France
EU15
Netherlands
Italy
Belgium
Greece
Austria
Spain
Luxembourg
Portugal
Ireland
% change 90-01
21
With existing domestic policies and measures EU emissions With existing domestic policies and measures EU emissions are projected to decrease by only 0.5 % from 1990 to 2010are projected to decrease by only 0.5 % from 1990 to 2010
92.6
99.2
92.0
80
90
100
11019
90
1995
2000
2005
2010
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(ba
se y
ear
= 1
00)
EU 15 Trends EU 15 With additional measures projections
EU 15 With existing measures projections EU 15 Target (Kyoto)
22
For SE, UK existing domestic policies and measures are For SE, UK existing domestic policies and measures are sufficient to meet their targets. Emissions in the other EU sufficient to meet their targets. Emissions in the other EU MS are projected to be significantly above their targets. MS are projected to be significantly above their targets.
EU15 (No over-delivery)
EU 15
Sweden
United Kingdom
Germany
Luxembourg
Italy
France
Greece
Netherlands
Portugal
Finland
Belgium
Austria
Ireland
Spain
Denmark
- 20 - 10 0 + 10 + 20 + 30 + 40
Percent points over-delivery (-) or short-fall (+) of respective emission target
23
Transport and aviation and navigation emissionsTransport and aviation and navigation emissions
• EU carbon dioxide emissions from domestic transport (28 % of total emissions), mainly by road, increased by 20 %.
• Carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation and navigation, not covered by the Kyoto Protocol (6 % of total emissions in 2001), increased by more than 50 % from 1990 levels
• Emissions are projected to increase substantially by 2010
24
Workshop objectivesWorkshop objectives
• Consider state of reporting by EU MS• Recommendations to improve data and emission
calculation methodologies• Improve methodologies for disaggregation of
domestic and international transport• Present information on activities of international
organisations• Share best practice and improve coordination
between EU MS and international organisations• Discuss different allocation approaches• Prepare time schedule for follow-up activities
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