drob atmospheric winds - university of california, san diego · global forecast system (gfs)...

Status of Atmospheric Status of Atmospheric

Winds in Relation to Winds in Relation to

InfrasoundInfrasound

Douglas P. DrobDouglas P. DrobSpace Science DivisionSpace Science Division

Naval Research LaboratoryNaval Research LaboratoryWashington, DC 20375Washington, DC 20375

GOT WINDS?GOT WINDS?

Douglas P. DrobDouglas P. DrobSpace Science DivisionSpace Science Division

Naval Research LaboratoryNaval Research LaboratoryWashington, DC 20375Washington, DC 20375

G.O.T.S. WIND?G.O.T.S. WIND?

Douglas P. DrobDouglas P. DrobSpace Science DivisionSpace Science Division

Naval Research LaboratoryNaval Research LaboratoryWashington, DC 20375Washington, DC 20375

Today’s Menu� NOAA NCEP

� GFS

� CONUS RUC

� NOMADS

� NCAR WRF

� ARW

� NMM

� NASA GMAO

� GEOS-5

� MERRA

� NRL SSD

� HWM07/MSISE-00

� G2S-RT/E

Today’s Menu� NOAA NCEP - http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/

� GFS - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/gfs/

� CONUS RUC - http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/

� NOMADS - http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/

� NCAR - http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/

� WRF – http://www.wrf-model.org/index.php

� ARM - http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/

� NMM - http://www.dtcenter.org/wrf-nmm/users/

� NASA GMAO - http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.php

� GEOS-5 - http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/systems/geos5/

� MERRA - http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/merra/intro.php

� NRL SSD - http://www.nrl.navy.mil/spacescience/

� HWM07/MSISE-00 - http://uap-www.nrl.navy.mil/uap/?content=section;code=7643

� G2S-RT/E (In Season)

Global Forecast System (GFS)� Nation’s Operational Workhorse (analysis and forecasts, 6 hours intervals, out

to 16 days)

� This is the only global ‘numerical weather prediction’ model for which all output is free, over the internet (as a result of U.S. law), and as such is the basis for most web based forecast services, AccuWeather, The Weather Channel, the Weather Underground etc.

� Model Specifics

� Horizontal- spectral triangular 254 (T254); gaussian grid of 768X384, 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude/longitude.

� Vertical 0 – 45 km (0.27 hPa), sigma coordinates, 64 layers with enhanced resolution at bottom and top

� Physics - http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/moorthi/gam.html

� Data available in GRIB/GRIB2 format (high demand/high volume, redundant operational servers, 24/7).

� Now ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prodftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.gfs_CY.00

� Historical (see NOMADS)

� High-frequency (every 1h) short-range weather

model forecasts (out to 12+ h) in support of

aviation and other mesoscale weather forecast

users.

� 13 x 13 km and 20 x20 horizontal resolution

numerical forecast model

+analysis/assimilation system to initialize that

model, hybrid-sigma vertical coordinates, 50

native levels up to 100 mb (~15 km).

� 14 3-D Fields[u,v] components of wind

height

pressure

virtual potential temperature

water vapor mixing ratio

vertical velocity

[cloud, rain] water mixing ratios

[ice, snow, graupel] mixing ratio

cloud ice number concentration

turbulence kinetic energy

46 2-D fields

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC)

From - http://ruc.noaa.gov/ruc13_docs/RUC-upgrade.impl-prebrief.4nov08.pdf

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/gifs/

The NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System

(NOMADS) is a Web-services based project providing both real-time and

retrospective format independent access to climate and weather model data.

� See links (RUC2 is WRF NMM)

� For OCONUS operations ask

� Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)

� -or- Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology

and Oceanography Center (FNMOC)

for Couple Ocean Atmosphere

Mesoscale Prediction System

(COAMPS).

� Leverage radionuclide transport

modeling efforts.

Weather Research and

Forecasting Model (WRF)

GEOS-5/MERRA� Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5)

� 1/2 x 2/3 degree global model on 72 sigma levels up to 0.01 hPa (~80 km).

� Same data assimilation scheme as GFS + extra data, physics, post validation.

� Focused of data assimilation for climate/geophysical research, not forecasting.

� Documentation - Rienecker et al. (NASA Tech Memo) http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/GEOS5_104606-Vol27.pdfand references therein.

� Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)

� Reprocessing of atmospheric observations from 1979 to present using the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System; through 2007 to be completed by August, 2009.

� The focus of MERRA is the hydrological cycle.

� For data access - http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/MDISC/

From Michele Rienecker (NASA

GSFC)http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/Rienecker372.pdf

From http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/Rienecker372.pdf

From Steve Pawson (NASA GSFC) http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pubs/docs/Pawson375.pdf

From later in presentation (DPD)

GEOS-5 still

better than

climatology

below 65 km on

any given day!

(DPD)

HWM07 (+NRLMSIS-E)The recently upgraded Horizontal Wind Model (HWM07) provides a statistical

representation of the horizontal wind fields of the Earth’s atmosphere from the ground to the exosphere (0 to 500 km).

It is a empirical model (a compact Fortran-90 subroutine) that is function of geographic location, altitude, day of the year, solar local time, and geomagnetic activity.

The model includes representations of the zonal mean circulation, stationary planetary waves, migrating tides, and the seasonal modulation thereof; these are forced harmonic oscillation which to first order dominate the meteorology of the upper atmosphere.

There are 18,840 unknown model parameters that are estimated with a novel sequential estimation process from 60 × 106 available data points from 35 different satellite, rocket, and ground-based instruments spanning a period of over 50 years.

Drob, D. P., et al. (2008), An empirical model of the Earth’s horizontal wind fields: HWM07, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A12304, doi:10.1029/2008JA013668.

HWM07 Observational Database

Average WINDII zonal winds as function of height (black), and corresponding results from HWM93 (red) and HWM07 (blue). The results represent quiet-time (Kp< 3), December solstice (November-February) conditions in the indicated local time and latitude bins. The models were evaluated for the conditions of each observation, then binned and averaged in the same way as thedata. Error bars denote the estimated uncertainty of the mean.

Same as last figure, except for the meridional component.

Ground to Space (G2S)

G2S