dr. marcella szymanski - can agriculture save the planet before it destroys it?

AGRICULTURE

before it DESTROYS it?

save the planet…

Can

Peak OilPeak Child

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Baby Boom

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Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Baby Bust

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Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Peak Child

Productivity Gains

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Land40%

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70% of fresh water used for agriculture

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Aral Sea1973

Aral SeaToday

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ClimateGreenhouse gas emissions from

agriculture and deforestation

30%

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of State

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Together, these represent more emissions than from nearly any

other industry

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Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

20509 billion

Global Population Growth

5 1990

7 billion 2010

20308 billion

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That’s

About the number of people in Germany

75 millionmore people each year

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of State

And yet almost 1 billion don’t have enough food today

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

We all need to eat

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Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs310/en/index.html

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60% more food by 2050, using…

Less land

Less water

Less fertilizer

Fewer pesticides

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We Need Technology

Source: USDA/ERS

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Res

ou

rces

Per

Bu

shel

of

Co

rn

1980

– 2

011

60% Less Erosion

50% Less Water

40% Less Energy

35% Less Greenhouse Gases

40% Less Land

U.S. Department of State

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

GE Crops

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U.S. Department of State U.S. Department of State

Bangladesh – Bt Eggplant

50,000 Hectares50-70% Yield Loss50+ Pesticide Sprays30-45% Gain for Bt Eggplant

25% of All Vegetable Area

GE Goats

James (Jim) Murray, UC Davis professor of animal science and vet med population health and reproduction, Photo by Karin Higgins/UC Davis

Competing World Views

Slow Food Fast Food

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U.S. Department of State

Different Choices

Brazil 2019

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Different Voices

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Hazard x Exposure = Risk

Old School Risk

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Disruptive Technologies

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New School Risk

=Media

Exposure

Perception of

Risk

Hazard x

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Tweet-ification

Of Risk

The

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DisconnectMarketing versus reality

By the way, this is dog food

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Health Scares

Versus

Scary but Healthy

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Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

WHO Theory

How to communicate?

Media Reality

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Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Risk High

When to communicate?

Media Attention Low

Risk Low

Media Attention High

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Language that turns people off:

What to communicate?

Amount is miniscule

Keeps prices low

Let us feed the world

Research shows it’s safe

Better for the environment

Lesson: If you lead with the science, you may lose with the science

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Food doesn’t have to be scary

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What’s in a name?

Has anybody eaten Chinese gooseberries?

U.S. Department of State

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

What is “pink slime”?

Lean Finely Textured Beef

March 2012

Yuck factor U.S. Department of State

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

What does “pink slime” have in common with Belgium?

Without LFTB nearly 400 million pounds of beef would be disposed of as food waste each year

About the same amount wasted in Belgium each year

400 million

U.S. Department of State

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

What do they have in common?

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Almost everything

U.S. Department of State

How do you get a seedless watermelon?

Two sets of chromosomes

Treat seeds with toxic chemical (colchicine)

Four sets of chromosomes

Three sets of chromosomes

X =

Sterile seedless

melon

U.S. Department of State

Risk in Context

“The difference between risk and the perception of risk is the difference

between action and reaction.”

U.S. Department of State

Risk Approx. number

Cancer* 56,000Coronary heart disease* 35,000Food borne illness ~ 500Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease <20Food allergy ~ 10GMOs, pesticides, growth hormones nil

Choking to death 151Bed or chair accident 140

*assumes about one-third of deaths are diet-related

Food risks: UK deaths per year related to diet or food

Slide data taken from Lord Krebs Kt FRS, Jesus College Oxford

U.S. Department of State

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Scientist as Storyteller

Personalize

Acknowledge

Connect

Only then can we talk about the science

Build Trust

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Peak Child

Jack A. Bobo | Senior Advisor for Biotechnology | U.S. Department of State

Peak Child

Productivity Gains

Increasing sustainability

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Increasing Sustainability

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“You can’t tweet common sense...

Parting Thought

But you can provide a link.”

U.S. Department of State

U.S. Department of State

Marcella Szymanski, Ph.D.U.S. Department of State202-647-0111 szymanskimb@state.govTwitter:@EconEngage Facebook: facebook.com/EconBizEngage

Slides courtesy of Jack Bobo – Senior Biotechnology Advisor