dornier 1 model pax - 20. ismor, 26 - 30 august 2003 intentionally left black
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1 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Intentionally left black
Gunther Schwarz,Gunther Schwarz,EADS Dornier, BDOREADS Dornier, BDOR
GermanyGermany
PAXPAXAgent-Based Modeling of Peace Support OperationsAgent-Based Modeling of Peace Support Operations
3 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
OutlineOutline
Peace Support Operations / Project DavidPeace Support Operations / Project David
PSO-Distillation: Prototype PAXPSO-Distillation: Prototype PAX
– GoalsGoals
– Scenario Scenario
– ConceptsConcepts
– Model descriptionModel description
– User interfaceUser interface
Analysis with PAXAnalysis with PAX
Further WorkFurther Work
PAXPAX
4 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Traditional Combat:Traditional Combat:
– comparison of comparison of
combat losses combat losses
between own and between own and
opposing forcesopposing forces
Traditional Analysis Combat vs. Analysis Traditional Analysis Combat vs. Analysis of Peace Supportof Peace Support
Peace Support:Peace Support:
– avoid escalationavoid escalation
and minimization of and minimization of
losses (usually on losses (usually on allall
sides)sides)
5 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Problem: Peace Support Operations can't be Problem: Peace Support Operations can't be
modeled with existing combat oriented modeled with existing combat oriented
simulation systems simulation systems
Agent-Based Approach seems to be an Agent-Based Approach seems to be an
appropriate alternativeappropriate alternative
Modeling of Peace Support OperationsModeling of Peace Support Operations
6 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Project DavidProject David
Part of Project AlbertPart of Project Albert
Focus: Modeling of Peace Support Focus: Modeling of Peace Support OperationsOperations
Born at Maui in June 2000 Born at Maui in June 2000 (2nd Project Albert International (2nd Project Albert International Workshop)Workshop)
7 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Headquarter
Contingency Units
Mission SpectrumPSO
CrowdControl
Patrol
Convoy
ConfrontationPolice
OperationsCombat
AdminSupport
Disarming
FoodSupply
WaterSupply
FoodStorage
CrowdManagement
CheckPoint
Area/BuildingScreening
Separation
MedicalSupport
Protection
ConvoyConvoy
ProtectionProtection
Food Food DistributionDistribution
PSO: Project David ScenariosPSO: Project David Scenarios
8 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Food Distribution (MANA): First TryFood Distribution (MANA): First Try
Experiments during Project Albert International Experiments during Project Albert International Workshop 4 in Cairns (AUS) using the Distillation tool Workshop 4 in Cairns (AUS) using the Distillation tool MANA (0.97)MANA (0.97)
15
60
15
2020 20
5
2020 20
5 5
9 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Food Distribution (MANA): ResultsFood Distribution (MANA): Results
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
3015
60
15
2020 20
5
2020 20
5 5
Red
Lo
sses
Blu
e L
oss
es
ShortShort LongLongExposureExposure
ShortShort LongLongExposureExposure
ShortShort LongLongExposureExposure
Blue does much better with smaller food distribution points and lower time of exposure
10 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Food Distribution (MANA): ObservationFood Distribution (MANA): Observation
Results ok and Plausible, but showed:Results ok and Plausible, but showed:
– Only Only worst caseworst case - the real conflict situation - - the real conflict situation - could be modeled sufficiently wellcould be modeled sufficiently well
• Not the Not the process of escalationprocess of escalation, but mainly the , but mainly the already already escalated situationescalated situation could be modeled! could be modeled!
• No way to model de-escalationNo way to model de-escalation
– ““CiviliansCivilians” did ” did not reallynot really exist: The only exist: The only possibility was to model them as possibility was to model them as opponentsopponents
– The The Food Distribution ProcessFood Distribution Process could not be could not be modeled at allmodeled at all
11 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Existing agent-based models: powerful, but main Existing agent-based models: powerful, but main
focus on combat modelingfocus on combat modeling
– Strong emphasis on Strong emphasis on MovementMovement
– Only form of interaction: Only form of interaction: FightingFighting
– NoNo reasonable modeling of reasonable modeling of CiviliansCivilians
Demand for a model, that is truly designed Demand for a model, that is truly designed
for PSOfor PSO
Adapt the models to our questions and not the
questions to our models!
Modeling of Peace Support OperationsModeling of Peace Support Operations
12 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
OutlineOutline
Peace Support Operations / Project DavidPeace Support Operations / Project David
PSO-Distillation: Prototype PAXPSO-Distillation: Prototype PAX
– GoalsGoals
– Scenario Scenario
– ConceptsConcepts
– Model descriptionModel description
– User interfaceUser interface
Analysis with PAXAnalysis with PAX
Further WorkFurther Work
13 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
EADS Dornier ProjectEADS Dornier Project Context: Project AlbertContext: Project Albert
initiated by German Army Office initiated by German Army Office and assisted by German Center for and assisted by German Center for Analyses and StudiesAnalyses and Studies
Peace Support Operation „Peace Support Operation „Food Food Distribution by ConvoyDistribution by Convoy““
Special Interest: Special Interest: Peace KeepingPeace Keeping Aspect Aspect
Prototype PAXPrototype PAX
PaxPax(Roman Goddess of Peace)(Roman Goddess of Peace)
HA I 1 (4)HA I 1 (4)
14 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Goals of PAXGoals of PAX
Aim at the "heart" of Peace Support Aim at the "heart" of Peace Support OperationsOperations
– Modeling of Modeling of CiviliansCivilians
• Internal states and processesInternal states and processes that determine behavior: that determine behavior:
Motives, Emotions, Readiness for Aggression, ...Motives, Emotions, Readiness for Aggression, ...
• Group and Mass EffectsGroup and Mass Effects
– SoldiersSoldiers
• Not only concentrating on "combat abilities"Not only concentrating on "combat abilities"
Address "new" questions, e. g.:Address "new" questions, e. g.:
– How can an How can an escalationescalation be avoided or reduced be avoided or reduced
((deescalationdeescalation) under certain circumstances?) under certain circumstances?
– At which point could a stop of the operation be the At which point could a stop of the operation be the
best option?best option?
– What kind of behavior and abilities help to avoid a What kind of behavior and abilities help to avoid a
dangerous situation?dangerous situation?
NonlinearNonlinear
EffectsEffects
IntangiblesIntangibles
15 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Scenario / Mission: Scenario / Mission: Food Distribution by ConvoyFood Distribution by Convoy
Situation:Situation:
– Convoy (1 truck with food Convoy (1 truck with food packets; 1 truck with packets; 1 truck with infantry soldiers) has infantry soldiers) has arrived in a Villagearrived in a Village
– Infantry Soldiers have Infantry Soldiers have dismounted their vehicle dismounted their vehicle and form 2 small groups. and form 2 small groups. Their Target is:Their Target is:
• To Protect the distribution To Protect the distribution processprocess
• To Avoid violence and To Avoid violence and escalationescalation
16 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Mission: Food Distribution by ConvoyMission: Food Distribution by Convoy
Main Goal: To achieve a Main Goal: To achieve a non-non-
violent, fast and equitable violent, fast and equitable
distributiondistribution
Exemplary Investigation of the Exemplary Investigation of the
factors:factors:
– Behavior of military Behavior of military
personnelpersonnel
– Behavior of CiviliansBehavior of Civilians
• personality traitspersonality traits
• group influencegroup influence
17 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Standardized Modeling of Military Multi-Agent-Standardized Modeling of Military Multi-Agent-SystemsSystems
Based onBased on PECS PECS ( (PPhysis - hysis - EEmotion - motion - CCognition - ognition - SSocial ocial Characteristics), C. Urban, University of Passau, GermanyCharacteristics), C. Urban, University of Passau, Germany
Agent
Agent Agent
Agent
Environment
Connector
PAX - Modeling Concepts:PAX - Modeling Concepts:Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)
SensorPerception
MPECS-Agent
SocialCharacteristics Emotion
Physis
Cognition
ActorBehaviour
Z Z
FF FF
Z
Z
Equip-ment
Z F
18 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Agent
Agent Agent
Agent
Environment
Connector
PAX - Modeling Concepts:PAX - Modeling Concepts:Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)Architectural Pattern MPECS (Military PECS)
19 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
SensorPerception
MPECS-Agent
SocialCharacteristics Emotion
Physis
Cognition
ActorBehaviour
Z Z
FF FF
Z
Z
Equip-ment
Z F
MPECS - AgentMPECS - Agent
Z_1
FF
Z_1
New Behavior Action
20 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
EnvironmentEnvironment
AgentsAgents
InteractionInteraction
PAX: Model ElementsPAX: Model Elements
21 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
real urban areareal urban area abstract terrain model abstract terrain model
regular
built-up
PAX: EnvironmentPAX: Environment
AbstractionAbstraction
22 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Environment: Area TypesEnvironment: Area Types
Region of InfluenceRegion of Influence
– Group influenceGroup influence
– InteractionsInteractions
built-up areasbuilt-up areas
– "safe place" for civilians"safe place" for civilians
23 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Agent TypesPAX: Agent Types
24 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Modeling of SoldiersPAX: Modeling of Soldiers
Soldiers are modeled withSoldiers are modeled with– purely reactive behaviorpurely reactive behavior– They always "function", They always "function",
according to their rule sets ( the according to their rule sets ( the rules of engagement)rules of engagement)
They do not have internal "state They do not have internal "state variables", that meansvariables", that means– no motives, no emotionsno motives, no emotions– only rule setsonly rule sets
25 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Behavior of SoldiersPAX: Behavior of Soldiers
Behavior of Soldiers is Determined by:Behavior of Soldiers is Determined by:– Actions of individual CiviliansActions of individual Civilians– Overall Situation: Behavior of Civilian Overall Situation: Behavior of Civilian
GroupsGroups
Action PossibilitiesAction Possibilities
– ActionAction “ “WaitWait””
– ActionAction “ “PacifyPacify””
– ActionAction “ “ThreatenThreaten””
– ActionAction “ “DefendDefend””
Alternative “Rule Sets” for the Alternative “Rule Sets” for the SoldiersSoldiers
Example for a behavior rule of the soldiers:Example for a behavior rule of the soldiers:
Civilian “threatens“Civilian “threatens“
Other Civilians are Other Civilians are mainly not aggressivemainly not aggressive
Soldier “pacifies”Soldier “pacifies”
26 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Behavior of SoldiersPAX: Behavior of Soldiers
Soldiers: Rule Set 1Soldiers: Rule Set 1
RulesConditions1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Action of Civilian: Attack Y Y Y N2 Action of Civilian: Threaten Y Y N3 Dominating Group Behavior: Attack Y4 Dominating Group Behavior: Threaten Y5 Dominating Group Behavior: Not aggressive Y N Y
Actions1 "Defend" X2 "Threaten" X X3 "Pacify" X X4 "Wait" X
27 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Behavior of SoldiersPAX: Behavior of Soldiers
Soldiers: Rule Set 2Soldiers: Rule Set 2
RulesConditions1 2 3 4 5 6
1 Action of Civilian: Attack Y Y Y N2 Action of Civilian: Threaten Y Y N3 Dominating Group Behavior: Attack Y4 Dominating Group Behavior: Threaten Y5 Dominating Group Behavior: Not aggressive Y N Y
Actions1 "Defend" X2 "Threaten" X X3 "Pacify"4 "Wait" X X X
28 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Behavior of CiviliansPAX: Behavior of Civilians
Dynamics of the Internal States of the Dynamics of the Internal States of the civilians:civilians:– Autonomous Dynamics Autonomous Dynamics – Actions of the soldiersActions of the soldiers– Group InfluenceGroup Influence
Individual Behavior is caused by:Individual Behavior is caused by:
– Internal States (e. g. of the motives, Internal States (e. g. of the motives, emotions, ...)emotions, ...)
– ““Thinking”, internal strategies Thinking”, internal strategies
29 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Modeling of the Civilians: Modeling of the Civilians: Action PossibilitiesAction Possibilities
ActionAction “ “WaitWait”” ActionAction “ “MoveMove”” ActionAction “ “Demand a supply packetDemand a supply packet” ” (target: supply (target: supply
vehicle)vehicle) ActionAction “ “ThreatenThreaten” ” (target: soldier)(target: soldier) ActionAction “ “AttackAttack” ” (target: soldier)(target: soldier)
30 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Psychological BackgroundPsychological Background
Behavior of Humans depends strongly on psychic
forces, like motives and emotions
– PAX: Motive Need, Emotions Fear and Anger
Those forces have a certain strength which may
change over time or because of certain events
In our case the modeled psychic forces are in
competition. That means, one of them is
dominating (action leading force / motive) the
others depending on the motivational / emotional
strength of the force.
31 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Behavior of CiviliansPAX: Behavior of Civilians
3 basic “Psychic Forces”:3 basic “Psychic Forces”:
– Motive “Motive “NeedNeed (for Food)” (for Food)”
– Emotion “Emotion “FearFear””
– Emotion “Emotion “AngerAnger””
Other important variablesOther important variables
– Readiness for AggressionReadiness for Aggression
– ......
NeedNeed
SelectionSelection
Action leading Force:Action leading Force:NeedNeed
Action Goal: Action Goal: Get Supply GoodsGet Supply Goods
AngerAnger FearFear
32 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Modeling of the CiviliansPAX: Modeling of the Civilians
Time continuous modeling (not only discrete
steps or event-based):
– allows the use of differential equations for
certain state variables, e. g. fear:
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Time
Fe
ar
EVENTEVENT
33 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Psychological BackgroundPsychological Background
Psychological Theory for the
evolvement of aggressiveness
Founded on empirical Findings
Example:
[Prentice-Dunn et al., 1989]
Being Part Being Part of aof a
Mass of Mass of PeoplePeople
Physiological ArousalPhysiological ArousalFeeling ofFeeling of
Group CohesivenessGroup Cohesiveness
DeindividuationDeindividuation
34 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Civilian Behavior Model (simplified)Civilian Behavior Model (simplified)
physiological arousal
deindividuation fear
anger
need
# food packets
number of people
action leading motive
assessment of soldier action
soldier action
social impact(behavior of
other civilians)
readiness for aggression
aggressive norms
Non-Military unit: Rules of Behavior
Non-Military
social impact (emotional
state of other civilians)
Environment
35 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Behavior of Food Supply Vehicle AgentPAX: Behavior of Food Supply Vehicle Agent
Specified Capacity of Food packetsSpecified Capacity of Food packets– e. g. 50 units.e. g. 50 units.
Civilian “demands Food“Civilian “demands Food“
Still Food available Still Food available on truckon truck
Hand out FoodHand out Food
36 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Scenario EditorPAX: Scenario Editor
TerrainTerrain– built-up areasbuilt-up areas
– normal areasnormal areas
– regions of influenceregions of influence Defining of AgentsDefining of Agents
– Soldier groupsSoldier groups
• Behavior rulesBehavior rules
– CiviliansCivilians
• different "personalities" different "personalities"
• Motives, EmotionsMotives, Emotions
• Readiness for AggressionReadiness for Aggression
• Group CohesivenessGroup Cohesiveness
– Supply VehicleSupply Vehicle
• number of supply packagesnumber of supply packages
37 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Running SimulationsPAX: Running Simulations
Selection of Scenario Selection of Scenario SettingsSettings
– Duration of SimulationDuration of Simulation
– Random NumbersRandom Numbers
• Runs are reproducible with same Runs are reproducible with same
setting of random numberssetting of random numbers
38 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: AnimationPAX: Animation
Visualization of Visualization of performed simulationsperformed simulations
AgentsAgents– CiviliansCivilians
• REDRED: Anger is action-leading: Anger is action-leading
• GREENGREEN: Fear: Fear
• YELLOWYELLOW: Need: Need
– Soldier GroupsSoldier Groups
• BLUEBLUE
– Supply VehicleSupply Vehicle
• Dark-BLUEDark-BLUE
39 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Animation - InteractionsPAX: Animation - Interactions
InteractionsInteractions– Dark-REDDark-RED: Attack / : Attack /
Defend Defend
– REDRED: Threaten: Threaten
– GREENGREEN: Pacify: Pacify
– BLACK: Pass a supply BLACK: Pass a supply packetpacket
– BLAUBLAU: Demand a : Demand a packetpacket
40 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Animation - StatisticsPAX: Animation - Statistics
41 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
PAX: Animation - DetailsPAX: Animation - Details
51 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Modeling of SoldiersModeling of Soldiers
– adding "soft factors", like emotions, stress, ...adding "soft factors", like emotions, stress, ...
– movementmovement
– sensorssensors
– advanced behavior (subtle tactics, ...)advanced behavior (subtle tactics, ...)
Developing a training tool Developing a training tool
– User interacts with PAX simulation, e. g. in a User interacts with PAX simulation, e. g. in a
3D virtual environment.3D virtual environment.
Calibration and Validation of PAXCalibration and Validation of PAX
– Tool for analyzing PSO effectsTool for analyzing PSO effects
Outlook: ModelingOutlook: Modeling
52 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Data Farming with PAXData Farming with PAX
Now: Now:
– Run PAX on 1 machineRun PAX on 1 machine
– Use of MS Excel for visualizationUse of MS Excel for visualization
Future: Future:
– Use of Gilgamesh networkUse of Gilgamesh network
– Use of Project Albert Visualization ToolkitUse of Project Albert Visualization Toolkit
Outlook: Data FarmingOutlook: Data Farming
53 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
HeadquarterHeadquarter
ContingencyContingency UnitsUnits
Mission SpectrumMission SpectrumPSOPSO
CrowdCrowdControlControl
PatrolPatrol
ConvoyConvoy
ConfrontationConfrontationPolicePolice
OperationsOperationsCombatCombat
AdminAdminSupportSupport
DisarmingDisarming
FoodFoodSupplySupply
WaterWaterSupplySupply
FoodFoodStorageStorage
CrowdCrowdManagementManagement
CheckCheckPointPoint
Area/BuildingArea/BuildingScreeningScreening
SeparationSeparation
MedicalMedicalSupportSupport
ProtectionProtection
PSO: Mission SpectrumPSO: Mission Spectrum
Missions related to basics of PAXMissions related to basics of PAX
– group and mass effectsgroup and mass effects
– evolving aggressivenessevolving aggressiveness
– escalation / deescalationescalation / deescalation
54 Model PAX - 20. ISMOR, 26 - 30 August 2003
DORNIER
Intentionally left black
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