does your app really solve a problem?

Does Your App Really Solve a

Problem?!

@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Hello!!I’m @ArtfulGeek!

@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Apps in Perspective!•  June 29, 2007 – iPhone release.!•  July 10, 2008 - App Store launched by

Apple.!•  January 22, 2011 – 10 billionth app

download.!•  May 2013 – 50 billion apps

downloaded*!* Wired.com: “Someone out there just won a $10,000 iTunes gift card, Apple’s way of saying “Thanks” for downloading its 50 billionth iOS app.”

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Big Sea of Change!

• 147% increase in smartphone owners from 2008.!

• Today, almost a billion people own smartphones.!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

The Future…!

•  IDC forecasts 1.5 billion smartphones by 2017.!• Expected steady 10% annual

growth rate.!• Estimated 260% growth in

application store revenues.!http://www.fiercemobileit.com/story/global-smartphone-market-growth-estimates-vary-among-research-firms/2013-06-03! @Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Problems. Ideas.Apps.!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

The Old!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

   The New!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

“I found spam intolerable ... And it turns out that was all you needed to solve the problem. The algorithm I used was ridiculously simple. Anyone who'd really tried to solve the problem would have found it. It was just that no one had really tried to solve the problem.”

- Paul Graham

h"p://paulgraham.com/ideas.html   @Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

What Makes an App Successful?

"The equation for success is pretty simple... find a problem to solve (or a solution to improve) that's relevant to a massive amount of people. Then remember that the problem your solving is for these people and make it easy for them to use."

http://www.quora.com/How-did-Mint-acquire-1-0m+-users-without-a-high-viral-coefficient-scalable-SEO-strategy-or-paid-customer-acquisition-channel @Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Ideas: The Good!

Credit:    Grilled  Cheese  Social  @Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Credit:  Discovery  Health  

Ideas: The Good!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Cheetos lip balm!

Credit:  BookOfJoe  

Ideas: The Bad!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Whole chicken in a can!

Credit:  FlickR  

Ideas: The Ugly!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

•  Inadequate market estimation and research.!• Swallowed by competition or

entry by giants.!•  Ineffective distribution

model.!•  Inability to scale.!

• Missed a stroke of luck…!

Why Do Good App Ideas Fail?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Spoiler Alert: It’s Competitive.!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Evaluating Your Ideas.!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

• What problem does it solve?!•  Is there a market? What is its

size?!•  Is there sufficient demand?!•  Is there a secret weapon

against the competition?!

Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

•  Is there an economy of scale?!• Do you have sufficient time to

market advantage? Will you get eaten by a giant?!• Distribution model and

marketing strategy.!

Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

“It suddenly occurred to me that the hottest tech start-ups are solving all the problems of being twenty years old, with cash on hand, because that's who thinks them up.”

-  George Packer, The New Yorker, May 2013.

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

   Value vs Problem!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

!Problem solving is important, but so is opportunity and value.!

Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

!Wrong problems and right problems.!

Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Wander App!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Is There a Market?!

Credit:  MarkeDng  Technology  Landscape,  via  ChiefMartec.com  @Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Simple equation!

Market Size =!Price Point x !Number of Buyers!

What Is The Market Size?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Angry Birds!2 billion downloads x $0.99!!Minecraft!10 million downloads x $6.99!

Market Size Estimation!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Market Size!

Adapted  from  B.  Srinivasan  and  V.  Pande  @Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

• Fermi estimates (top-down market sizing)!!“How many piano tuners are there in !Chicago?”

!• Sum up empirical revenue

figures for competitors !!(SEC filings)!

Market Size Estimation!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Facebook Advertiser Tools!Real time census for demographical estimates.!

Market Research!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Google Adwords Keyword Planner!Search volumes for keywords.!

Market Research!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Is There Demand?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

“A game-changer in the world of social networking”!!AppAdvice, NYT,!Mashable.!

Foreca.st!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

If the concept is novel, can demand be created and fostered?!

Demand!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Illusions of Demand!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Is There Room For Your Idea?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Is There Room For Your Idea?!

Spork!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Do you have sufficient time to market advantage?!

Spork!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Could It Get !Eaten By !A Giant?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

• How do you get your app in the hands of The Market?!• Can you leverage virality?!• Can your marketing budget

help achieve this?!

Distribution Model.!Marketing Strategy.!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Credit:  h"p://www.viralblog.com/research-­‐cases/how-­‐hotmail-­‐became-­‐a-­‐viral-­‐hit-­‐once/  

•  In the 90s, people paid for Internet + one ISP based e-mail address. !

•  Enter Hotmail. People could now access their account from any computer in the world.!

•  With no extra cost per email address! !

= Thousands of sign-ups every day.!

The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!

Hotmail spent only $500,000 to gain 12 million users in 2 years, while its early competitors spent $20 million to attract less than half of that.!!

The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

The Virality Equation  

U(t) = (Np)t/τ

  N = Number of people shared with p = probability that people decide to share τ= Time interval between shares

•  Np must be > 1!•  It’s a lot easier to increase N than p!•  Decreasing τresults in non-linear

growth, due to exponential factor.!@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Potential Economy of Scale?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

An Idea Evaluation Model!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

“The way to get good ideas is to get lots of ideas and throw the bad ones away.”

– Linus Pauling

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013  

Questions?!

@Ar$ulGeek  |  FITC  SCREENS  |  Oct  2013