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Nebojša NakićenovićTechnische Universität Wien
naki@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
Die Vom Klimawandel zur Energiewende
DiKuppelsaal der Technischen Universität Wien ― 12 Juni 2014
2014 #2Nakicenovic
● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers> 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years
www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
● IPCC: Working Group I● Total Effort: 260 Authors;
~2000 Pages (Published)
http://www.climatechange2013.org/.owww.ClimateChange2013.org
Cambridge University Press
● IPCC: Working Group III● Total Effort: 235 Authors;
~2000 Pages (Published)
2014 #10Nakicenovic
Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air PollutionHealth Impacts
2013 #12Nakicenovic1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Per
cent
age
of to
tal p
opul
atio
n w
ith e
lect
ricity
acc
ess
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
USA
Mexico
Brazil
India
South Africa
China
USA Rural
SE4All
SE4All
Sub‐Saharan Africa
South Asia
Electrification
Source: Pachauri et al, 2012
2013 #13Nakicenovic 14
Present Atmosphere
~800 PgC
PreidustrialAtmosphere
~500 PgC
Coal~ 10,000 PgC
Biomass~430-460
PgCN. Gas
~190–240 PgC
Oil~180–280
PgC
Unconv. Oil~300-400
PgC
Unconventional Gas
~900-2900 PgC
Gas Hydrates~28,000
PgCHistorcial Emissions~500 PgC
~500 PgC
Cumulative Emissions for 2oC
Stabilzaiton Carbon Storage Potential~400-1500 PgC
Source: GEA, 2012
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.
2014 #17Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000
Glo
bal C
O2
emis
sion
s (P
gC)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Global CO2 Emissions
Source: GEA, 2012
2014 #18Nakicenovic
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Glo
bal C
O2
emis
sion
s (P
gC)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30IPCC Category IRPC 8.5RPC 6.0RPC 4.5RPC 2.6GEA (SE4ALL)
Global CO2 Emissions
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 2.6
Peak by 2020
reductions of 35-75% by 2050
almost zero or negative in the long term
2013 #20Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MikrochipKommerzielle
Luftfahrt
Fernseher
VakuumröhreOttomotor
ElektrischerMotor
Dampf-maschine
Nuklear-energie
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary Energy
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
2013 #21Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
Nuclear phase-out (policy)
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
EinsparungenAndere ENuklearGasÖlKohleBiomasse
Global Primary Energyno CCS, no Nuclear
SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
~55% renewables by 2030
2013 #22Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – “negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Global Primary Energylim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
2014 #23Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goal●Universal Access to Modern Energy
●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
2014 #25Nakicenovic
Reconstructionwith passive
house standard
~90% 15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a)
Before reconstruction
Possible transformational technologies
2014 #29Nakicenovic
Annual EnergyInvestments
InnovationRD&D
[billion US$2005]
MarketsFormation[billion US$2005]
PresentInvestments[billion US$2005]
Investment for SE4All
[billion US$2005]
2010 2010 2010 2010 ‐ 2030
Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 260‐370
Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 260‐410
Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40‐60
Total > 50 < 150 1250 1780 ‐ 2440
Global Energy Investments
2013 #30Nakicenovic
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total G
lobal Policy C
osts (201
0‐2030)
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
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