development of flood vulnerability index estimation system jang, dae won, kim, byung sik, kim, bo...
Post on 18-Dec-2015
221 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Development of Flood Development of Flood Vulnerability Index Vulnerability Index Estimation System Estimation System
Development of Flood Development of Flood Vulnerability Index Vulnerability Index Estimation System Estimation System
Jang, Dae Won, Kim, Byung Sik, Kim, Bo Kyung, Seoh, Byung Ha, and Yoon, Suk Young
Jang, Dae Won, Kim, Byung Sik, Kim, Bo Kyung, Seoh, Byung Ha, and Yoon, Suk Young
Excess Flood Vulnerability Index Excess Flood Vulnerability Index
BackgroundBackground
Objectives of the studyObjectives of the study
Excess Flood Vulnerability estimation System
Excess Flood Vulnerability estimation System
11
22
33
44
System DemonstrationSystem Demonstration55
Index
Background
FloodDamage
For the last thirty-year period, rainfall intensity is increased Consequently, property damage has increased dramatically. However, human casualty has decreased
Rainfall Intensity over 50mm Damage trend
- 4
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
()
재산
피해
조원
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
()
인명
피해
인
재산피해
인명피해
PropertyPropertydamagedamage
HumanHumanCasualtyCasualty
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
연도
평
균발
생회
수
1998년
1.8배
year
fre
que
ncy
Dam
age
(bill
ion
$)
Cas
ua
lty
Rainfall Intensity & Flood Damage in Korea
National river: Design frequency
(200year)
Regional river: Design Frequency
(100year)
Agriculturalarea: 50year
Urban area: 500year
Wetland area
: 10year
River Flood control considering regional unit
Small river: Design Frequency
(50year)
Paradigm changeClassification of the river in Korea: 1. National River (1st Class river) 2. Regional River (2nd Class river) 3. Small River(3rd Class river)
It fails to suggest an actual solution to cope with floods
It fails to suggest an actual solution to cope with floods
Objectives of the study
Korea selects flood control safety level based on the estimation of
Potential Flood Damage; PFD)
But PFD just show overall safety level for flood damage in mid and
large basins.
So, PFD can not correspond properly to the flood
This research will improve the limitations of PFD.
So, we developed Excess Flood Vulnerability Index(EFVI) for the
analysis about vulnerability that did not considered in PFD
And also we developed Excess Flood Vulnerability estimation
System(EFVS) that can evaluate the vulnerability.
Procedure of the study
Analysis of FDI
Application(Anseong-Cheon
basin)
SystemConstruction
developed Vulnerability
Index
Analysis of PFD
Potential Flood Damage (PFD)
Potential Flood Damage (PFD)
PFD was developed and used in National Water Resources Planning in
Korea for analyzing flood potential in the regional unit or concerned
area of the river basin and for the decision making for the priority of
investment for flood prevention project
PFD = f (Flood Potential, Risk)
Flood Potential = f (Population, Property, Urbanized Ratio, Infra-
structure)
Risk = f (Flood Damage, Design Rainfall, Improved Ratio of Levee,
Dams and Reservoirs, Runoff)
Potential Flood Damage (PFD)
- The regions of class A of PFD has increased from 27 to 35 (30% increase)- Southeast coastal regions and central regions need to be invested with higher priority for the flood prevention measures.
Standardized Human Casualty Index (SHCI)
= std (N. of Human casualties of unit area / Population of unit area)
Standardized Property Damage Index (SPDI)
= std (Value of damaged property of unit area / Value of total property of unit
area)
Standardized Inundated Area Index (SIAI)
= std (Inundated area of unit area / Total area of unit area)
Flood Damage Index (FDI)
FDI SHCI SPDI SIAI
1982 1985 1990 1995 2000
3
2
1
0
Flood Damage Index for an area of Han river Basin (1982~2003)
Property Damage IndexInundation Area IndexCasualty IndexFlood Damage Index
PFD is widely used for representing the degree of potential of flood damage.
FDI just corresponds to property damage index.
However we have difficulty in the use for flood defense measures or projects
because index does not correspond to the flood frequency .
We considered the climatic, Hydro-geological, Socio-Economic, flood Protection
components and developed EFVE and EFVS
Excess Flood Vulnerability Index(EFVI)
Benouar & Mimi(2001)
Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability divided by Disaster Management
Vulnerability is defined as the weakness/strength of the element at risk
Flood Risk AreaFlood Risk Area
Inundation mapInundation map
Erosion Risk AreaErosion Risk Area
Hazard risk areaHazard risk area
damage magnitudedamage magnitude
Basin SlopeBasin Slope
Critical FacilityCritical Facility
ClimaticClimatic
EnvironmentalEnvironmental
SocialSocial
MitigationMitigation
EconomicEconomic
HazardHazard
IndexIndex
DesignDesign
VulnerabilityVulnerability
IndexIndex
DesignDesign
What kinds of indicators do we have for Vulnerability and
Hazard indices?
What kinds of indicators do we have for Vulnerability and
Hazard indices?
Components for Excess Flood Vulnerability Index(EFVI)
• Determine weighting values of indicators
Weighting values of the indicators were decided by conducting a
survey to the specialists in industrial, academic, and research fields
We use AHP analysis for determining weighting values (Saaty, 1980)
components indicators Weights
Hydro-geological
Natural Hazard Risk Area 3Flood damage magnitude map 3
Basin slope 2Runoff coefficient 2
Socio-economic
Fire and Rescue facility 1Water treatment Facility 1
Pump Station 1Electric power Station 1
Hospital 1Density of Population 4
Financial ratio 3
Climatic Frequency of Extrem rainfall
(p≥80mm/hr)1
protectionInvestment percent for structual counter
measure(Levee)2
rainfall
1
1 4
21
2
24
slope
Population
1.0 4
2.01
1.5 0.5
1.00.5
Weight
Weight
0.25 1.0
0.50.25
0.75 0.25
1.00.5
i / maxi / max
1
2
4
2.5 5.5
3.53.0
Estimation of EFVI
EFVI C G S P
Flood ProtectionComponents
Flood ProtectionComponents
Hydro-Geologicalcomponents
Hydro-Geologicalcomponents
Socio-Economiccomponents
Socio-Economiccomponents
ClimaticComponents
ClimaticComponents
1step User Demand analysis1step User Demand analysis
2step System design2step System design
3step GIS DB design3step GIS DB design
4step Analysis module4step Analysis module
5step EFVS5step EFVS
6step System integration6step System integration
System development process
STATE EFVI
EFVS
EFVS (Excess Flood Vulnerability estimation System)
Climatic vulnerability estimation System Climatic vulnerability estimation System
- STAtistical diagnostic Tool for Extreme weather[STATE][STATE]
- Heavy rainfall threshold- Greatest 5-day rainfall- Average wet-day rainfall- Longest dry period- Heavy rainfall proportion- Heavy rainfall days- Hot-day threshold- Cold-night threshold- Frost days- Longest heatwave
STATE analysis resultsSTATE analysis results
Drainage Area : Drainage Area :
1,699.6km²1,699.6km²River Length : River Length :
66.4km66.4kmAverage Annual Average Annual
Precipitation :Precipitation :
1,225mm1,225mm
July, August, September July, August, September
Rainfall (total) :Rainfall (total) :
670mm670mm
Anseng-cheon basinAnseng-cheon basin
Pilot Study Area
Input weighting valueInput weighting value
EFVI EFVI == CC ++ GG ++ SS -- PP
EFVSEFVS
EFVS EFVS [input weighting values] [input weighting values]
Grade for vulnerability Grade for vulnerability
We can see grade point forWe can see grade point for
the following 4 componentsthe following 4 components
EFVS EFVS [the grade point of a small basin] [the grade point of a small basin]
EFVSEFVS
도시화율이 높을 수록도시화율이 높을 수록불투수율이 높음불투수율이 높음
InfomationInfomationEFVSEFVS
Hydro-geological analysisHydro-geological analysis
- Basin slope- Basin slope
- - Runoff coeffRunoff coeff
- Natural Hazard Risk Area- Natural Hazard Risk Area
- Erosion Risk Area- Erosion Risk Area
- Sea Level Rise Zone- Sea Level Rise Zone
- Flood damage magintude- Flood damage magintude
EFVS EFVS [Estimation[Estimation of Runoff coefficient] of Runoff coefficient]
EFVSEFVS
Hydro-geological analysisHydro-geological analysis
- Basin slope- Basin slope
- Runoff coeff- Runoff coeff
- - Natural Hazard Risk AreaNatural Hazard Risk Area
- Erosion Risk Area- Erosion Risk Area
- Sea Level Rise Zone- Sea Level Rise Zone
- Flood damage magintude- Flood damage magintude
EFVS EFVS [Hazard Risk Area] [Hazard Risk Area]
Hydro-geological analysisHydro-geological analysis
- Basin slope- Basin slope
- Runoff coeff- Runoff coeff
- Natural Hazard Risk Area- Natural Hazard Risk Area
- Erosion Risk Area- Erosion Risk Area
- Sea Level Rise Zone- Sea Level Rise Zone
- - Flood damage magnitudeFlood damage magnitude
EFVSEFVS
EFVS EFVS [Estimation of Flood damage magnitude] [Estimation of Flood damage magnitude]
- - Density of populationDensity of population
- Financial ratios- Financial ratios
Socio-Economic analysisSocio-Economic analysis
EFVSEFVS
EFVS EFVS [Population density] [Population density]
- Density of population- Density of population
- - Financial ratiosFinancial ratios
Socio-Economic analysisSocio-Economic analysis
EFVSEFVS
EFVS EFVS [Financial ratios] [Financial ratios]
EFVIEFVI
EFVI and PFD are showing
EFVI and PFD are showing
similar results
similar results
PFDPFD
Comparison of PFD and EFVI estimated from EFVSComparison of PFD and EFVI estimated from EFVS
Result
Basin characteristicBasin characteristic
VulnerabilityVulnerability informationinformation
EFVSEFVS–– Second Stage (basin characteristics) Second Stage (basin characteristics)
Future Research Plan
Critical FacilityCritical Facility
(Critical Facility Analysis (Critical Facility Analysis
––Pump station)Pump station)
EFVSEFVS
EFVSEFVS– Second Stage (facility-pump station)– Second Stage (facility-pump station)
Inundation MapInundation Map
(Anseong-cheon basin) (Anseong-cheon basin)
EFVSEFVS
EFVSEFVS– Second Stage (Inundation of the basin)– Second Stage (Inundation of the basin)
What kings of flood What kings of flood
Defense countermeasureDefense countermeasure
Should we construct in this basin ?Should we construct in this basin ?
EFVSEFVS– Second Stage (decision of flood defense measures)– Second Stage (decision of flood defense measures)
Q & A
top related