development control in hong kong's new towns a probit author(s) … · 2016. 6. 9. · 4)...

Title Development control in Hong Kong's new towns a probitanalysis of green belt zones planning application statistics /

OtherContributor(s) University of Hong Kong

Author(s) Ip, Tin-yan, Timothy; 葉天恩

Citation

Issued Date 2005

URL http://hdl.handle.net/10722/48868

Rights Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG

DEVELOPMENT CONTROL IN HONG KONG’S NEW TOWNS:

A PROBIT ANALYSIS OF GREEN BELT ZONES PLANNING APPLICATION STATISTICS

A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF ARCHITECTURE

IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN SURVEYING

DEPARTMENT OF REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION

BY IP TIN YAN TIMOTHY

HONG KONG APRIL 2005

DECLARATION

I declare that this dissertation represents my own words, except where

due acknowledgement is made, and that it has not been previously

included in a thesis, dissertation or report submitted to this University or

any other institution for a degree, diploma or other qualification.

Signed: _____________________________

Name: _____________________________

Date: _____________________________

CONTENTS

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . iv

LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . viii

ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix

Chapter

1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Town Planning in Hong Kong

Background of this Study

2. LITERATURE REVIEW. . . . . . . . . . . . 6

The Study of Development Control

The Use of Planning Control Statistics in Land Use Planning Research

The Use of Probit Model in Modern Land Use Studies

3. HYPOTHESES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Empirical Hypotheses Relating to Green Belt Zones Interpretation of Hypotheses

4. METHODOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Modelling Planning Applications

Data Description

5. EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES AND DISCUSSIONS . . . . 22

Empirical Estimates

6. CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Appendix

1. PHOTOGRAPHIC ILLUSTRATIONS OF FINDING . . 39

REFERENCE LIST. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

INDEX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

ILLUSTRATIONS

Photographs Page

1. The Leighton Hill in Causeway Bay . . . . . . . 40

2. The Ho Chung New Village in Sai Kung . . . . . 40

3. Sha Tin New Town (first generation) . . . . . . . 42

4. Tai Po New Town (second generation) . . . . . . 42

5. Sai Kung New Town (third generation) . . . . . . 43

6. Eden Gardens . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

7. Village Type Houses in Ho Chung Village . . . . . 44

8. Village Type House. . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

9. Religious Institution (Other use). . . . . . . . . 46

10. Car Park (Other use) . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

TABLES

Table Page

11. Summary of Hypotheses, Test Results and Implications . . xi

12. Probit Analysis of Decision Function . . . . . . . . xiii

13. Probit results for the first model . . . . . . . . . 29

14. Probit results for the second model . . . . . . . . 32

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This dissertation was completed under the help of many individuals.

First of all, I am in debt to my supervisor, Professor Lawrence Wai-

chung Lai. Without his inspiration, patient guidance, and invaluable

advice, both intellectually and spiritually, this dissertation could hardly be

in reality. So I would like to express my sincere gratitude to him here.

Secondly, I am also indebted to Miss Lin Yuet-yim Veronica, who

gave me advice and assistance whenever I encounter problems in my

dissertation. I would like to wish her every success in her postgraduate

studies.

In addition, I would like to thank Mr. Thomas Chor-hung Wan for

his assistance and Mr. Ian Ping Yung because a portion of the Green Belt

zones data up to the year 2003 used in this dissertation was collected by

him in his research. Besides, I would like to take this opportunity to show

my appreciation to my family and friends, especially Brother Thomas

Favier, the former principal of St. Joseph’s College and other teachers,

my fellow studio groupmates (Sing, Dick, Yeung, Eddie and Walter),

classmates (Emily, Holly, Wai, Lokman, Wave and other Italians),

Zodiacians (Regis, Jason, Joseph, Darwin) and other good friends

(Kenneth, Candy, Kitty, Cindy) for their generous support.

Last but not least, Special thanks have to be granted to my parents,

my grandparents and my younger brother for their enduring

encouragement. Thanks Cecilia Leung for giving me the incentive to

work independently, and teaching me an invaluable lesson since

31/3/2003 in Stanley (El Amor en los Tiempos del Colera). Above all, I

have to express my greatest thanksgivings to God as everything I possess

is granted by Him. Finally, may God bless all the LaSallian brothers,

Jesuit fathers and other priests, who spend their whole lives to serve God.

ABBREVIATIONS

BO Buildings Ordinance

DPA Development Permission Area

GB Green Belt zone

GFA Gross Floor Area

GSA Gross Site Area

IDPA Interim Development Permission Area

NTDD New Territories Development Department

NTEH New Territories Exempted Houses

OZP Outline Zoning Plan

TDD Territories Development Department

TPB Town Planning Board

TPO Town Planning Ordinance

V Village Type Development zone

VTH Village Type House

UK United Kingdom

ABSTRACT

As a first focused attempt to apply Lai and Ho’s ideas (2002), this

dissertation investigates seven refutable hypotheses in relation to

applications for uses under green belt zoning in Hong Kong’s new towns.

There is an express presumption of ‘against development’ and ‘limited

development’ policy for green belt zones and this dissertation tests

whether the Town Planning Board (TPB) actually follows this policy

when granting planning approvals in Hong Kong’s new towns. Attention

will be paid also on planning applications with respect to residential uses.

Non-aggregated planning application statistics for Green Belt zones in

Hong Kong from 1 January 1975 to 31 August 2004 are used for

evaluating the hypotheses which are related to different material

considerations made by the Town Planning Board such as locations (new

towns versus other broad regions, urbanized new towns versus more rural

new towns), scale of proposed development (any presumption of limited

development versus the rent-seeking argument) and types of use

(ordinary residential versus Village Typed House) in Green Belt zones

situated in Hong Kong’s new towns at the time of decision-making. It is

found that the decisions made by the TPB were not random in the sense

that it did look into specific factors for systematic observations of success

or failure for applications in respect of Green Belt zones in Hong Kong’s

new towns. Results showed that location, scale of development and types

of use are statistically speaking significant factors shaping the decisions

of the TPB when vetting planning applications.

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

Town Planning in Hong Kong’s New Town1

The Hong Kong government introduced the new town program in

the 1970s with the objectives to alleviate the urban congestion, residing

the overcrowding population and provide substantial housing units.

Urban development pace in Hong Kong has been very rapid. In spite of

the growing of population in the urban areas of Hong Kong and Kowloon,

there are major growths taking place in the new towns in the New

Territories. The New Town Development Program in Hong Kong that

sought to accommodate more than three million people, which is the

largest new town program in the world achieved by massive public

investment. The development of new towns played a very important role

in Hong Kong’s development history.

1. New towns can be defined as “planned communities consciously created in response to clearly stated objectives” (Galantay 1975, p.1). The concept of new towns originated from the idea of Ebenezer Howard, the Garden Cities of Tomorrow (1898). He proposed the idea of self-contained new towns. The Garden City combines the advantages of intensive urban life with the beauty and pleasures of the country.

The idea of developing new towns in the New Territories was mooted by Sir

Patrick Abercrombie (Lai 1999a) during his visit to Hong Kong in 1949 but it was not until the early 1970s that this ambitious program of developing new towns became a reality. In fact, every modern new town is designed in similar to the idea of Howard (1898).

There are now nine new towns in Hong Kong which can be

classified into 3 generations. First generation new towns, Sha Tin, Tsuen

Wan and Tuen Mun, are founded earliest and are almost completed.

Second generation new towns, Tai Po, Fanling/Sheung Shui and Yuen

Long, are in the advanced development stage. Third generation new

towns, Tseung Kwan O/Sai Kung, Tin Shui Wai and Tung Chung, are

still in the active development stage. They fall within theoretically

restricted definition of independent, self-contained and balanced

settlement (Bristow 1989). Since the new towns in Hong Kong are

growing larger and accommodating an increasing number of people, it is

expected that an increasing emphasis of concern would be put on the new

towns and the study of new town zoning in Hong Kong would be fruitful.

One of the most famous works about Hong Kong’s new towns was

written by Roger Bristow (1989). He examined the overall

conceptualization of the new-town program at length and undertook

detailed analysis of individual towns and of specific topics illustratively.

However, quantitative analysis of planning application statistics for new

towns in Hong Kong has not been given sufficient interest of research in

the past by researchers. Therefore, this dissertation will quantitatively

analyze the planning application statistics.

Background of this Study

In the United Kingdom, it is accepted in principle and in law that

there is no private right to develop land unless it is publicly acceptable by

a political decision (Cullingworth and Nadin 2002, p. 129; Dobry et al

1996, p.3). In contrast to the U.K., there is no such general presumption,

as pointed out by Cullingworth and Nadin (2002) and Dobry et al (1996)

in planning control against development in Hong Kong. But Hong Kong

does have a ‘presumption against development’ in the Green Belt (GB)

zones and a number of other zones. Green Belt zones act as buffers for

urban concentrations. It is the “physical separation of town and country

by a building free zone, usually encircling the town” (Home 1997, p.14).

The planning intention2 of Green Belts is primarily for defining the limits

of urban and suburban development areas by natural features and to

contain urban sprawl as well as to provide passive recreational outlets.

There is an express presumption of ‘against development’ and ‘limited

development’ policy for green belt zones unless there is a strong planning

ground may an application for development of a limited scale is permitted

(Lai and Fong 2000, p. 127; Lai and Ho 2001d, p.325).

2. The planning intention of zones in Hong Kong could be found in the

Explanatory notes in any OZP.

Green Belt zoning is not restricted only to rural areas. Planning

applications in urban areas are common (Lai and Fong 2000). According

to the planning application statistics by Lai and Fong (2000), there are

totally 770 section 16 applications during years 1975 to 1998, which is

not a small number. Moreover, most applications within the Green Belt

zones were found in the New Territories. In the Green Belt zoning, there

are successful cases with respect to Village Type House applications

(small house or New Territories Exempted House) and ordinary

Residential applications.

A discrete choice model, the probit model, would be used here to

evaluate and present planning application data for the Green Belt zones in

Hong Kong from the year 1975 to 2004. For material considerations in

planning applications, the studies by Lai and Ho (2001a, d) has initiated

the factors of success for planning applications within Green Belt zones.

The zoning and planning criteria of the Hong Kong’s new towns

with respect to Green Belt (GB) zone will be investigated in this

dissertation. This dissertation is to continue the studies of Lai and Ho

(2001a, d) and Yung (2004) on Green Belt zones to investigate further the

material considerations (location factor, scale of development, and the

use under application) of the TPB in granting planning approvals for

applications in Green Belt zone and test whether the Town Planning

Board (TPB) follows the “presumption against development” and

“limited development” policy when granting planning approvals in Hong

Kong’s new towns.

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

The Study of Development Control

Development control is an interesting area of research. It is an

integral component of urban land use policy and has attracted

considerable scholarly research (Lai 1994, 1996, 1997a, 1997b, 1998a,

1998b; Tang and Tang 1999; Lai and Ho 2000, 2001a, b, 2002b, 2003;

Chau and Lai 2004). It is the process by which the proposals in a

development plan are put into practice accordingly by either public or

private agencies (Keeble 1969). Lai (1997a) explained that, in terms of

economic theory, the development control mechanism as a regulatory

system is a means of non-price allocation of development and

redevelopment rights.

Underwood (1981, p. 194) generalized and divided the issues of

development control into two types: policy issues and action issues.

Policy issues, the main concern of this dissertation, could be further sub-

divided into “roles of plans” and “material considerations”. The “role of

plans” concerns about the extent of the planning policies that are adhered

to and implemented through development control (Underwood 1981).

There is much research on this area (Whitehead 1989; Tewdwr-Jones

1993; Tang and Tang 1999; Tang and Choy 2000; Lai and Ho 2000,

2001a, b, 2002b, 2003; Chau and Lai 2004). The “material

considerations” is exactly what the term suggests: considerations that are

material to the taking of a development control decision (Cullingworth

and Nadin 2002, p.129). In other words, factors for success in planning

applications are just the material considerations of planning authority

(Underwood 1981; Tewdwr-Jones 1993; Willis 1995a; Tang and Choy

2000; Tang et al. 2000; Lai and Ho 2000, 2001a, b, 2002b, 2003; Chau

and Lai 2004).

The Use of Development Control Statistics in Land Use Planning

Research

It is possible to evaluate the assertions of the economic critics of

development control with the availability of planning application

statistics (Lai and Fong 2000). As pointed out by Lai and Ho (2001a;

2001b), the collection and qualitative analysis of development control

statistics would facilitate the econometric analysis of three types of

planning research including hedonic price analysis, verification of

economic theories concerning various dimensions of the behaviour of

planning authorities, and the evaluation of the behaviour of players in the

land market. However, prior to the work of Willis (1995a, b), empirical

research of urban planning was largely confined to hedonic pricing

analysis (Fisher and Peterson 1987; Lai and Ho 2001a, 2002a). Most

previous evaluations of the performance of the planning and development

control authorities were either by qualitative analysis or by case studies.

Development control and planning applications statistics (quantitative

approach) were seldom used (Lai and Ho 2001d).

“The current state of art of urban planning research is the debate on

the usefulness and limitations of aggregate planning data, notably the

average success rates of development applications as measures of

development pressures” (Lai and Ho 2002a, p. 128). Carlos (1979)

defined aggregated and non-aggregated data. If each observation in the

data consists of a value of the attribute vector (representing an individual

who has been interviewed), and an observed choice, they are

disaggregated. If the data include only information on groups of people,

they are aggregated or grouped.

In fact, the use of development control data is very popular in

many research areas. The final report of Dobry (1975), which is a review

of development control system, analyzed qualitatively UK planning

statistics. Dobry (1975) argued that the planning mechanism causes

delays. Dobry (1975) argued that the planning mechanism causes delays.

In Hong Kong, scholars and practitioners have criticized the existing

planning permission system for being too slow and incurring huge delay

costs. The delay is a pure economic loss that only benefits the

professionals and lobbyists involved (Lai 1997b). Staley (1994), Chau et

al (1996), and Lai (1997a, b) further elaborated on the concept of delay.

Moreover, the studies of Brotherton (1992a, b) for England and Wales,

the work of Lai and Fong (2000) for Hong Kong were also based on the

qualitative analysis of development control statistics. In addition, there

are also a number of researches being done in using this methodology

(McNamara and Healey 1984; Preece 1990; Sellgren 1990; Brotherton

1992a, b; Willis 1995a; Gilg & Kelly 1996).

The use of non-aggregated data or disaggregated data was not

common in planning research compared with the use of aggregated data.

However, as aggregated development control data have many inherent

limitations (Brotherton 1982, 1992a, b; McNamara and Healey 1984;

Buller and Hoggart, 1986; Larkham, 1986, 1988, 1990a; Preece 1990;

Sellgren 1990; Bingham 2001; Lai and Ho 2001d), we need

disaggregated data to make reliable analysis.

There are two econometric models, probit and logit model, that can

conveniently be used to overcome the limitations and controversies of

using aggregate development control statistics (Lai and Ho 2001a). In this

dissertation, following the footsteps of Lai and Ho (2000, 2001a, b,

2002b, 2003), non-aggregated data would be employed for analysis.

The Use of Probit Model in Modern Planning Studies3

The first limited dependent variable model was proposed by Tobin

(1958). This is known as Tobit analysis. Lee and Trost (1978) introduced

the use of probit model to study the housing expenditure model of

homebuyers and renters. The model takes into account the simultaneous

determination of how much to spend and whether or not to own or rent.

Following Lee and Trost (1978), a lot of studies have been conducted by

using the probit model in the housing aspects (Goodman 1988; Horioka

1988; Potepan 1989).

In Hong Kong, some researchers (Tang and Tang 1999; Tang and

Choy 2000; Tang et al 2000) used the econometric logit model, which

had been adopted by Willis (1995a), to evaluate the Hong Kong planning

application data in relation to one single permissible use in Residential (A)

zones for a small numbers of observations (242 and 162 respectively)

from year 1987 to 1997.

3. See Lai and Ho (2000).

Another binary dependent variable model, the probit model, was

used by Lai and Ho (2000; 2001a, b, c, d; 2002a, b, c; 2003), Chau and

Lai (2004) and Lai and Chan (2004) in evaluating development control

data. They investigated the planning decision criteria of the TPB for

planning applications4. In their studies, they investigated two important

criteria: Analyzing the material considerations of the TPB when granting

planning approvals. Examples are (a) analysis of alleged “rent-seeking”

activities of the planning authorities or analyzing the sensitivity of the

decisions of the planning authorities to exogenous policies, (b) analysis of

the actual separation of two classes of zones with identical uses (Lai and

Ho 2002b; Yung 2004). The significance of using the probit model,

which yields empirical estimates of individual explanatory variables, is

that it would allow us to identify the material considerations, measuring

implementation of land use policies, thus predicting whether a planning

application for a use would be approved by the TPB or whether the

impact of exogenous government policy is binding (Lai and Ho 2001a;

Yung 2004).

4. These are the different material considerations made by the Town Planning

Board such as locations, scale of proposed development, types of use, etc.

CHAPTER 3

HYPOTHESES

Empirical Hypotheses relating to the Green Belt Zones

Seven refutable hypotheses relating to the location factor, scale of

development, and the use under application are developed as follows:

Hypothesis I: The probabilities of getting planning permissions for all

uses in GB zones would be the same for applications made

in all broad regions (namely HK, KLN, ISLAND, NT and

RURAL).

Hypothesis II: Planning applications for all uses in GB zones in more

urban broad regions are not associated with greater chance

of being approved than those in rural broad regions.

Hypothesis III: The probabilities of getting planning permissions for all

uses in GB zones would be the same for applications

made in all generations of new towns (i.e. first, second

and third generation new towns).

Hypothesis IV: Planning applications for all uses in GB zones in more

urbanized new towns (i.e. first generation new towns and

second generation new towns) are not associated with

greater chance of being approved than more rural new

towns (the third generation new towns).

Hypothesis V: planning decisions in respect of all uses in GB zones do

not show any preference on larger developments

(measured in terms of proposed gross floor area of the

building or use) in the Hong Kong’s New Towns.

Hypothesis VI: Planning applications for the development of Village

Type House in new towns’ GB zones are not associated

with greater chance of being approved than ordinary

residential uses developments in the Hong Kong’s New

Towns.

Hypothesis VII: Planning applications for the development of Ordinary

Residential Developments GB zones are not associated

with greater chance of being approved than Other Uses

like open storage, car park, religious institutions, etc. in

the Hong Kong’s New Towns.

Interpretation of Hypotheses

Hypotheses I and II is to test whether location (degree of

urbanization) is one of the decisive criteria for the TPB in approving

planning application. These 2 hypotheses would be tested by the first data

pool (with 1,275 data sets). Hong Kong is geographically divided into

five regions: Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, and New Territories which

could be further subdivided into urban New Towns, Rural Areas and

Outlying Islands. There should be some differences across these locations

in the decision of the TPB. Comparisons of the probit results between

New Towns and the other four regions would give some hints about the

decision making criteria of the TPB on New Towns’ planning

applications.

The TPB pointed out that there is a “presumption against

development” and “limited development” green belt policy. Thus,

intuitively, planning applications made in the Hong Kong Island,

Kowloon, and New Towns, which are urban areas, should be more likely

to be approved than those made in the less urbanized Rural Areas or

Outlying Islands. This is because development in the zones located near

or in the urbanized districts should exert less significant impact on the

natural environment than in rural zones.

Where applications fall into the nine urban new towns in Hong

Kong, they would be categorized as New Towns. Where the remaining

applications which fall into rural areas outside the urban new towns in a

DPA/IDPA/Rural OZP, they would be classified under Rural Areas.

Hypothesis I and II are related. If hypothesis I is not refuted,

hypothesis II is also not refuted and we could go further to investigate. If

hypothesis I is refuted, it means that the TPB does consider any location

factor when making decision. If hypothesis I is not refuted, we may

conclude that there is no difference across the location categories in the

decision of the TPB. If hypothesis II is refuted, we may conclude that

there are more severe restrictions on rural regions. If hypothesis II is not

refuted, we may conclude that there is no preference by TPB when

deciding on planning applications for uses in Green Belt zones in either

urban or rural regions. The remaining hypotheses would be tested by

using the second data pool (with 747 datasets).

Hypotheses III and IV further investigate the influence of location

factor in the Hong Kong’s new towns and its associated rural areas. Here,

we define the boundary of a new town in a different way and this is to be

distinguished from the urban New Town category in hypotheses I and II.

Here, each new town is consisting of both the urban new town areas (e.g.

in Sha Tin OZP, S/ST/20) and their rural hinterland (e.g. in Sha Tin

Kwun Yam Shan & Fa Sam Hang rural OZPs, S/ST-KYS/8) as a whole.

But in Hypotheses I and II, Sha Tin OZP, S/ST/20 and Sha Tin Kwun

Yam Shan & Fa Sam Hang rural OZPs, S/ST-KYS/8 would be separately

classified respectively as New Town and Rural Areas.

Using the same rationale for hypotheses I and II, it is hypothesized

that the chance of success of planning applications for uses in GB zones

in the in urbanized new towns would be easier than less urbanized new

towns. That means, applications made in the first generation new towns

should be the easiest to be approved and those in the third generation new

towns should be the easiest to be rejected.

Hypotheses III and IV are also related. If hypothesis III is not

refuted, hypothesis IV is also not refuted and we could go further to test it.

If hypothesis III is refuted, that means the TPB does consider the vintage

of new towns as a factor when deciding on planning applications. If

hypothesis III is not refuted, we may conclude that there is no difference

across the different generations of new towns in the decision of the TPB,

irrespective the degree of urbanization. If hypothesis IV is refuted, it

means that the TPB does consider the age of a new town when approving

or rejecting planning applications for uses in Green Belt zones. We may

also conclude that the more urbanized new towns are easier to get

planning approvals than less urbanized new towns. If hypothesis IV is not

refuted, it means that the TPB does not consider the age of new towns

when granting planning approvals, irrespective their degree of

urbanization.

Hypothesis V is to test the relevance of the scale/size of

development and the rent-seeking argument by various researchers (Chau

et al 1996; Chau and Lai 2003; Lai 1997a, b; Lai and Ho 2001a, b, c,

2002a, d, 2003; Staley 1994) of the inherent favour of the planning

permission mechanism towards larger developers as well as whether the

criterion of measuring “limited developments” in Green Belt zones is

based on proposed GFA (Lai and Ho 2001d). As greater GFA involves

more capital, it is used as a proxy for a larger developer, which is more

resourceful in lobbying the planning authorities than a smaller one.

Previous research (Tang and Choy 2000; Tang et al 2000; Lai and Ho

2001a, b, c, 2002b, d, 2003) showed that the scale of development as

represented by GFA is significant.

If Hypothesis V is refuted, i.e. larger development stands higher

chances of success in planning applications, then there is prima facie

evidence for the existence of rent-seeking activities within the planning

permission mechanism (Lai and Ho 2002d, 2003; Chan 2003; Yung

2004). If Hypothesis V is not refuted, then there is no prima facie

evidence of rent-seeking behaviour as far as Green Belt zones are

concerned. If the smaller the amount of floor space, the greater is the

chance of success, then we may conclude that there is a real policy of

‘presumption against development’ and ‘limited development’.

Hypothesis VI evaluates the land use factor to test whether there is

preference of TPB for Village Type House (VTH) over ordinary

residential development.

In the New Territories, some categories of buildings –Village Type

Houses (VTH), one type of ‘New Territories Exempted Houses’ (NTEH),

are outside the reach of the Buildings Ordinance5 (Lai 2000a; Lai and

Fong 2000; Lai and Ho 2001a, d). This is different from the ordinary type

of residential developments for which approval of building plans under

the Buildings Ordinance is needed. In the study of Lai and Fong (2000),

the VTH use has been very popular in Green Belt zones accounted for

40% of all GB applications. The average success rate of VTH

5. Chapter 123, Laws of Hong Kong.

applications may be greatly affected by the TPB’s policy towards small

houses in GB zones. On the other hand, applications related to residential

development other than VTH, were classified under either

‘Commercial/Residential’ or ‘Residential’ and the success rates of these

two uses were rather extreme.

Under the land administration policy, a ‘small house’ could be

applied for only by an adult male villager residing in an ‘indigenous

village’ in the New Territories of Hong Kong recognized by the colonial

administration (Lai 2000; Nissim 1999). Under this special land policy, a

small house can be applied for on any private land or, in case the

applicant has no land, government land at no premium, in village-type

development (V) zones. Outside the V zones, it can be built in a host of

zones but there are most applications found in Green Belt zones (Lai

2000). Lai and Ho (2001d) studied the chances of success in obtaining

planning permissions for the development of ‘small houses’ and ordinary

houses in all green belt zones in Hong Kong. They concluded that the

TPB favoured VTH and discriminated against the development of

ordinary houses in their study period. We should re-test this argument

If hypothesis VI is refuted, we may conclude that TPB treats ‘small

house’ and ordinary house applications in an asymmetric manner. In this

hypothesis, if ‘small house’ applications stand a greater chance of success,

then we may conclude that the ‘small house’ is exempted from the

‘general presumption against development’ in green belt zones or that the

accommodation of the ‘small house’ policy constitutes a ‘strong planning

ground’ which merits approval support. If hypothesis VI is not refuted,

we can say that there is no preference by TPB for Village Type House

over ordinary residential development.

Hypothesis VII tests the land use factor, i.e. whether there is

preference by TPB for ordinary residential developments over other uses6.

There are usually more than one land uses other than residential types of

development in Column 2 in the Notes to a statutory town plan7. There

should be difference in the scale of development if we compare

residential developments with those other uses. The difference in the

scale of development would affect the decision of the TPB in deciding on

6. Other Uses are defined as development other than VTH developments and

other ordinary residential development like “Residential”, “Residential/Commercial, etc. (Town Planning Board 2004).

7 . For example, Utility Installations, Petrol-Filling Station, Open Storage,

Religious Institution, Warehouse, Container-Related, etc. (Town Planning Board 2004).

planning applications. Ordinary residential development usually involves

a larger GFA, compared with other uses, which should be less welcomed

by the TPB is the light of “limited development” policy on the Green Belt

zones.

If Hypothesis VII is refuted, we may conclude that the TPB has

preference for either ordinary residential development or other uses. If

Hypothesis VII is not refuted, we may conclude that the TPB has no

preference for ordinary residential development or other uses when

making planning decision (approval or rejection).

CHAPTER 4

METHODOLOGY

Modelling Planning Applications8

In a regression model, there are two kinds of variables: dependent

variables and independent variables. We would like to explain the

unknown (dependent) variable in terms of the known and measurable

(independent) variables (Wooldridge 2003).

Following the methodology of various researchers (Amemiya 1986;

Chau and Lai 2004; Lai and Ho 2001a, b, c, d; 2002a, b, c; 2003; Lee &

Trost 1978; Theil 1971; Tobin 1975) of modeling a dichotomous

dependent variable, this dissertation uses an econometric probit model to

evaluate planning application statistics in Hong Kong in terms of the

hypotheses discussed previously.

The probit model is used for analyzing the determinants of the

choice between two discrete alternatives, 1 or 0. The dependent variable

in our models is the decision (DEC) of the Town Planning Board which is

the results of the planning application. Hence, there are only two

8. This part is informed by Lai and Ho (2000) and Yung (2001).

outcomes in a case, either approval (dependent variable takes the value of

“1”) or rejection (dependent variable takes the value of “0”). The cases of

delay and withdrawal would be excluded from the data set because there

were no decisions made. Only the latest application for each lot will be

taken into account to avoid double counting (Anderson 1981; Sellgren

1990).

While the independent variables that generates such outcomes can

be any values. Where the dependent variable can take only limited values,

linear probability model would not be able to model such a relationship.

While the probit model, a discrete choice model would be a good choice.

A univariate binary qualitative response model is defined by the

following equation:

(4.1) p(yi = 1) = F(xi’ βo)

where i = 1,2,…,n, and {yi is a sequence of independent binary random

variables taking the value of 1 or 0, xi is a K-vector of known constants,

βo is a K-vector of unknown parameters, and F is a certain known

function.

It would be more general to specify the probability as F(xi, βo), but

the specification (4.1) is the most common. As in the linear regression

model, specifying the argument of F as xi’ βo is more general than it

would seem because the elements of xi can be transformed from the

original independent variables (Amemiya 1986). To a certain extent, a

general non-linear function of the original independent variables can be

approximated by xi’ βo, and the choice of F is not critical as long as it is a

distribution function. An arbitrary distribution function could be attained

by choosing an approximate function H in the specification F[H(xi’ βo)]

The function forms of F can be used in application of linear

probability model, probit model and logit model. The probit model of

planning applications can be specified as the equation below:

(4.2) p(xα1, xα2, …, xαj) = F(βo + β1 xα1 + β2 xα2 +…+ βj xαj)

= 1/(2π)-0.5 ∫-∞βo + β1xα1 + β2xα2 +…+ βjxαj exp[(-1/2) t2]dt

Or equivalently,

(4.3) F-1 (p(xα1, xα2, …, xαj)) = βo + β1 xα1 + β2 xα2 +…+ βj xαj

Since the dependent variable yi is unobservable, the Ordinary Least

Square (OLS) method could not be used, and we choose the Maximum

Likelihood method here. There are only 2 possible outcomes in this case:

approval (y=1) or rejection (y=0), and all the town planning applications

are independent of each other. Therefore, we can apply the binomial

distribution to find the likelihood of happening of a particular event. The

probability of a successful planning application is modeled as a function

of the specific use applied for, the proposal gross floor area (GFA) and

locations (detailed descriptions of independent variables of the model in

this dissertation would be provided in later sections). Let xα1, xα2, …,

xαj be the values taken by these variables for the αth planning application.

To estimate the parameters βo, β1, β2, …, βj, we should apply Maximum

Likelihood method. The observations are arranged in such a way that the

first n’ applications are approved by the Town Planning Board, and the

last n-n’ applications are rejected. Then, the logarithmic likelihood

function can be written as:

Where each p(xα1, xα2, …, xαj) is of the form Equation (4.2) and is thus

a function of βo, β1, β2, …, βj. By differentiating Equation (4.5) with

respect to these parameters and equating the derivatives to zero, non-

linear equations are obtained from which estimates can be derived

numerically by an iterative procedure (Theil 1971).

Data Description

Records of planning applications in the Green Belt zones from

years 1975 to 2004 are extracted from the database of the Planning

Department9. Therefore, data including the latest planning applications

made in the year 2004 of altogether 30 years’ planning applications

would be employed in this dissertation.

Two different data pools would be used in this dissertation to

construct two models for hypotheses testing. The testing of Hypotheses I

and II would employ data sets of Green Belt zones, which include

planning applications for all kinds of development in all districts

throughout Hong Kong (Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territories

and Outlying Islands). There are altogether 1275 sets of data in this pool

in respect of Green Belt zones in Hong Kong.

9 . The data for the years 1975 to 1998 has collected from the Planning

Department by Lai and Fong (2000). The remaining data from 1999 to 2004 has extracted manually by the author and other students from the Department of Real Estate and Construction, Faculty of Architecture, the University of Hong Kong as Research Assistant to Professor Lawrence Lai.

The testing of Hypotheses III to VII would make use of data sets of

green belt zones of planning applications for all kinds of development

only in the urban New Towns and also the Rural Areas associated with

respective New Towns (e.g. The Kwun Yam Shan & Fa Sam Hang

Outline Zoning Plan is a Rural OZP which is associated with the Sha Tin

new town). Applications in Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, Outlying

Islands and some of the Rural Areas which are not associated with New

Towns were excluded. Moreover, due to incomplete data provided in

some data sets for proposed Gross Floor Area, a small number of sets of

data are also abandoned and hence there are altogether 747 data sets used

in this pool.

In the current study, there are four types of independent variables.

Firstly, in order to compare the four broad regions with the urban New

Town region, we define four dummy variables for the four different broad

districts: HK = 1 if the site is located in Hong Kong Island, 0 if otherwise.

KLN = 1 if the site is located in Kowloon, 0 if otherwise, ISLAND = 1 if

the site is located in outlying islands, 0 if otherwise. RURAL = 1 if the

site is located in rural areas, 0 if otherwise. For applications falling in

different generations of new towns, we define the following dummy

variables: FIRST = 1 if the site is located in the first generation new

towns, 0 if otherwise. THIRD = 1 if the site is located in the third

generation new towns, 0 if otherwise. GFA represents the proposed gross

floor area (square metre) of a site under application. For different uses,

two dummy variables are set for the analysis as follows: VTH = 1 if the

case is applied for ‘Village Type House’ Use, 0 if otherwise. OTHERS =

1 if the case applied fall in the uses other than ‘Village Type House’ or

‘Ordinary Residential Developments’ uses, 0 if otherwise.

CHAPTER 5

EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES & DISCUSSIONS

Empirical Estimates

Two different probit models, employing two different data pools

and different independent variables, would be analyzed individually

below.

First Model (all applications regarding GB zones in Hong Kong)

In Table 1, the probit estimates of the decision functions of the

TPB are presented.

Table 3. Probit results for the first model Dependent Variable: DEC Method: ML - Binary Probit Date: 12/06/04 Time: 15:07 Sample: 1 1275 Included observations: 1275 Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives

Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob. HK 0.375637 0.128951 2.913022 0.0036 ISLAND 0.404940 0.198958 2.035309 0.0418 KLN 0.820716 0.256968 3.193850 0.0014 RURAL -0.237997 0.082227 -2.894380 0.0038 C 0.386698 0.065052 5.944424 0.0000

Mean dependent var 0.635294 S.D. dependent var 0.481536 S.E. of regression 0.473295 Akaike info criterion 1.280280 Sum squared resid 284.4908 Schwarz criterion 1.300479 Log likelihood -811.1787 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.287866 Restr. log likelihood -836.4992 Avg. log likelihood -0.636219LR statistic (4 df) 50.64104 McFadden R-squared 0.030270 Probability(LR stat) 2.65E-10 Obs with Dep=0 465 Total obs 1275 Obs with Dep=1 810

The coefficients of the four broad regions, HK, KLN, RURAL and

ISLAND, are all significant (1% significant for HK, KLN, RURAL and

5% significant for ISLAND). This suggests that the Town Planning

Board does consider location factor in making its decisions regarding

planning applications. Hypothesis I is refuted. There are differences

among various location categories in the decision of the TPB.

The coefficients HK, KLN and ISLAND are all positive, indicating

that a planning application made in these three broad regions would be

more likely to be approved compared with the urban New Town region.

To the contrary, the coefficient of RURAL is negative, indicating that a

planning application made in this broad region, when compared with the

New Towns, HK, KLN and ISLAND, would be more likely to be rejected.

It is surprising to find that the coefficient of ISLAND is positive, which is

not consistent with our preliminary estimation. This could perhaps be

explained in the following was the majority of the planning application

cases for ISLAND were made in the more urbanized areas in Lantau

Island (e.g. Chek Lap Kok, etc. which is near the Chek Lap Kok Airport)

where there are quite a lot of existing development and where most of the

housing stocks are developed and managed by the Mass Transit Railway

(MTR). Moreover, since there were fewer applications made in ISLAND

than New Towns which affects the result. The result could be more

reliable if there were more applications made in ISLAND. Hypothesis II

is refuted. Planning applications made in more urbanized areas were

easier to get approvals and those in rural Green Belt zones had a higher

chance of meeting failure than those in GB zones in urban districts.

Second Model (all applications regarding GB zones in Hong Kong’s

New Towns)

In Table 2, the probit estimates of the decision function in the

green belt zones in New Towns are presented. It is the optimal equation10

with the highest McFadden R-Squared value.

10. We apply log function to the independent variable GFA. This method is

usually done in previous researches (Chau and Lai 2003; Lai and Ho 2001a, b, d; 2002b, c; 2003). They found that the optimal equation may be a semi-log or log function. The McFadden R-squared value has also improved a lot after taking the log function. This equation contains most significant variables and has the highest McFadden R-squared value. It is regarded as the optimal equation from the data available.

Table 4. Optimal equation probit results for the second model

Dependent Variable: DEC Method: ML - Binary Probit Date: 12/09/04 Time: 00:16 Sample: 1 747 Included observations: 747 Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Covariance matrix computed using second derivatives Variable Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob. LOG(GFA) -0.086960 0.030760 -2.827026 0.0047 FIRST -0.172826 0.117288 -1.473514 0.1406 THIRD -0.323377 0.121157 -2.669068 0.0076 VTH 0.405290 0.138518 2.925907 0.0034 OTHERS 0.799184 0.157742 5.066411 0.0000 C 0.531046 0.269732 1.968791 0.0490 Mean dependent var 0.599732 S.D. dependent var 0.490281 S.E. of regression 0.472953 Akaike info criterion 1.285068 Sum squared resid 165.7503 Schwarz criterion 1.322145 Log likelihood -473.9728 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.299357 Restr. log likelihood -502.8207 Avg. log likelihood -0.634502LR statistic (5 df) 57.69581 McFadden R-squared 0.057372 Probability(LR stat) 3.63E-11 Obs with Dep=0 299 Total obs 747 Obs with Dep=1 448

The coefficient of FIRST is negative but insignificant. This implies

that whether an applications was made in a first generation new town (i.e.

Sha Tin, Tsuen Wan or Tuen Mun) or a second generation new towns (i.e.

Tai Po, Fanling/Sheung Shui or Yuen Long), had no significant impact on

the decision of the Town Planning Board. This is possibly because both

first and second generation new towns had already been heavily

urbanized. Therefore, when TPB is making a decision, it has no

preference in respect of the age. The coefficient of THIRD is negative

and significant at 1% level. This implies that the Town Planning Board

would readily reject a planning application made in a third generation

new town than one made in a second generation new town. Therefore,

hypothesis III is refuted. The TPB did consider age of a new town when

making planning decisions and the more urbanized is the new town, the

easier is the granting of planning approvals. In other words, hypothesis

IV is refuted.

The coefficient for the variable GFA is found to be negative and

significant at 1%. This means that an application for uses in larger sites

had a greater chance to be rejected than one in a smaller site in a Green

Belt zone in Hong Kong’s new towns. In other words, Hypothesis V is

not refuted and there is no prima facie evidence to support the argument

that there are rent-seeking activities within the TPB. TPB even

discriminates against larger development and we may therefore conclude

that planning policy of ‘presumption of against development’ and

‘limited development’ in the Green Belt zones has been adhered to by

For Village Type House (VTH) development, the coefficient is

positive and significant at 1%. This suggests that a planning application

for Village Type House in a Green Belt zone within a Hong Kong’s new

town is associated with a greater likelihood of being approved by the TPB

when compared with an rdinary residential development. In other words,

Hypothesis VI is refuted. This is an expected result, since Village Type

House is a small-scale and low-density type of development compared

with ordinary residential development. It is easy to understand why the

TPB favoured this type of development because there should be little

impact created by individual small houses on the environment. This result

confirms our previous results on GFA where TPB was found

discriminated against development with larger GFA.

For other types of uses, the coefficient OTHERS is positive and

significant at 1%, indicating that the TPB generally showed

discrimination against ordinary residential development over OTHERS.

In other words, hypothesis VII is refuted. This is also an expected result.

If we compare the proposed GFA of ordinary residential development and

OTHERS, we would probably find that ordinary residential development

generally involves larger GFA (a larger scale of development). This result

further confirms our previous results about GFA and VTH where TPB

was found discriminated against development with larger GFAs.

CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSION

The objectives of this study are to investigate the criteria of TPB

when approving planning applications by following the probit

methodology of previous researchers (Chau and Lai 2004; Lai and Ho

2000; 2001a, b, c, d; 2002a, b, c, d; 2003) in the context of Green Belt

zone with the focus on Hong Kong’s new towns.

The results show that application for uses in GB zones in urbanized

areas appeared to stand a higher chance to be approved than the less

urbanized, or even rural areas. This is shown by the results that planning

applications made in the four broad regions (Hong Kong, Kowloon,

outlying islands and New Towns) are easier to be approved than

applications made in Rural Areas in Hong Kong. This is also confirmed

by the result that the Town Planning Board would be more readily to

reject a planning application made in a third generation new town than

one made in a second generation new town (and the second generation

new town is more urbanized). This is because development in the zones

located near or in the urbanized districts should exert less significant

impact on the natural environment than in rural zones. However, the TPB

is not sensitive to whether a planning application is made in a first

generation or second generation new town.

Larger-scale development appeared to stand a smaller chance to be

approved than the smaller-scale one. There is no evidence that there was

rent-seeking behaviour in the development control mechanism with

regard to Green Belt zones in the new towns. But the attitude of the TPB

was different while facing applications of VTH, ordinary residential

development and other uses. The results also suggest that the planning

policy of ‘presumption against development’ and ‘limited development’

is a valid one in Green Belt zones within Hong Kong’s new towns.

Development of VTH was preferred over ordinary residential

development and the TPB also had preference for other uses over

ordinary residential development. Residential development generally

involves a larger GFA than VTH and other uses. Thus they are

unwelcome by the TPB.

The results of the hypotheses give us good empirical evidence to

confirm that the official restrictive development control policy for the

Green Belt zones is actually applied in the Hong Kong’s new towns.

Quantitative study on Hong Kong’s new towns using non-

aggregated data has not been given much interest in the past. Therefore,

as a first focused attempt, this dissertation has investigated applications

for uses under green belt zoning in Hong Kong’s new towns. It is hoped

that this empirical study would kindle a new interest in new town study.

APPENDIX I

PHOTOGRAPHIC ILLUSTRATIONS OF FINDINGS

In this appendix, photographs taken by the author are shown in

order to illustrate and help interpret the findings (the seven hypotheses

with respect to Hong Kong’s new towns) in this dissertation.

Hypotheses I and II

The results of the two hypotheses show that the TPB has different

preferences towards different location categories (different broad regions)

in Hong Kong when considering applications regarding Green Belt zones

and urbanized areas (e.g. Hong Kong Island and New Towns) appeared to

stand a higher chance to be approved than the less urbanized areas (Rural

Areas). This could be illustrated by the following photographs:

Photograph 1. The Leighton Hill in Causeway Bay. (Date taken: 11/3/2005)

Photograph 2. The Ho Chung New Village in Sai Kung. (Date taken: 13/3/2005)

Both residential developments shown in photographs 1 and 2 are

situated in Green Belt zones. The Leighton Hill is situated in Hong Kong

Island whereas the Ho Chung New Village Sai Kung rural areas. We

would probably notice that the Leighton Hill development is more

extensive in scale whereas the development in the rural Green Belt is

smaller in scale. This showed that larger development is more likely to be

approved in urban Green Belts (The Leighton Hill in Hong Kong Island)

than in rural ones (the Ho Chung New Village). This confirms the result,

that due to the “presumption against development” and “limited

development” green belt policy, planning application regarding Green

Belt zones made in the urban areas, should be more likely to be approved

than those made in the less urbanized areas.

Hypotheses III and IV

The results of the two hypotheses show that the TPB has different

preferences towards different location categories (different vintages of the

new towns) and applications in more urbanized new towns appeared to

stand a higher chance to be approved than the less urbanized new towns.

Photograph 3. Sha Tin New Town (a first generation new town). (Date taken: 11/3/2005)

Photograph 4. Tai Po New Town (a second generation new town). (Date taken: 11/3/2005)

Photograph 5. Sai Kung New Town (a third generation new town) (Date taken: 13/3/2005)

Photograph 6. Eden Gardens (ordinary residential building in a Sha Tin Green Belt zone) (Date taken: 11/3/2005)

Photograph 7. Village Type Houses in Ho Chung Village (Sai Kung) (Date taken: 13/3/2005)

Photographs 3, 4 and 5 show different vintages of new towns in

Hong Kong. From the photographs, it is not hard to notice that the degree

of urbanization of the first and second generation new towns are roughly

the same (represented by Sha Tin and Tai Po respectively) and the third

generation new town (represented by Sai Kung) is less urbanized.

Moreover, both the residential developments shown in photographs

6 and 7 are situated in Green Belt zones in the respective new towns. The

Eden Gardens is situated in Sha Tin new town whereas the Village Typed

Houses in Ho Chung Village is situated in Sai Kung. We would probably

notice that the Eden Gardens development is more extensive in scale with

high-rise residential towers whereas the Village Type House development

in Ho Chung Village is smaller in scale. This shows that larger

development in Green Belt zone is more likely to be approved in more

urban new towns than in less urban ones. Our previous statistical result is

confirmed and it is because of the “presumption against development”

and “limited development” green belt policy.

Hypotheses V, VI and VII

The result of hypothesis V points out that Decision-makers

regarding planning applications made in Green Belt zones in Hong

Kong’s new towns may not be affected by rent-seekers as they indeed

discriminate larger development. The presumption against development

and limited development planning policy can be said to apply to Green

Belt zones in Hong Kong’s new towns.

The result of hypothesis VI affirms the findings of Lai & Ho

(2001a, d) that the TPB treats planning applications for different uses in

an asymmetric manner that (preferring VTH to ordinary residential

developments). Whereas the result of hypothesis VII shows that the TPB

treats planning applications for different uses in an asymmetric manner

(preferring other uses (e.g. open storage, car parks, etc.) to ordinary

residential developments). The results could be illustrated by the

following photographs:

Photograph 8. Village Type House (Date taken: 13/3/2005)

Photograph 9. Religious Institution (Other use) (Date taken: 13/3/2005)

Photograph 10. Car Park (Other use) (Date taken: 13/3/2005)

Photograph 8 shows a typical Village Type House in Sai Kung Ho Chung

Village. In photograph 5, we would note that the majority of buildings in

Sai Kung new town (a more rural third-generation new town) are low-rise.

After a recent site visit in 13/3/2005, the author found that Village Type

House is the most common form of residential building to be found in

such more rural new towns as Sai Kung. In addition, photographs 9 and

10 show the common other uses (religious institution and car park) in

more rural new towns. It is relatively uncommon to see the uses shown by

photographs 9 and 10 in urban areas and it is hard to find high-rise

buildings in rural areas. Moreover, the Gross Floor Area (GFA) of

Village Type Houses and other uses are seen to be much smaller than

ordinary residential development. This confirms our previous statistical

results, that due to the “presumption against development” and “limited

development” green belt policy, planning application regarding Green

Belt zones with smaller GFA (e.g. VTH and other uses), should be more

likely to be approved than those developments with larger GFAs in Hong

Kong’s new towns.

Concluding Remarks

The author conducted site visits in Causeway Bay, Pokfulam, Sha

Tin, Tai Po and Sai Kung on 11/3/2005 and 13/3/2005. The photographs

are taken during the site visits It is hoped that the photographs would help

illustrate and reinforce the statistical findings in this dissertation.

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aggregated, 8, 9, 10, 37 Development Permission

Area (DPA), viii, 15 development control, ii, 6, 7,

8, 9, 11, 36, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63

disaggregated, 8, 9 green belt, ii, vi, viii, ix, xi,

xii, 3, 4, 5, 12, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 26, 27, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40, 42, 43, 44, 47, 53, 56

gross floor area (GFA), viii,

xii, xiii, 13, 17, 21, 25, 27, 28, 32, 33, 34, 36, 46, 47

Interim Development

Permission Area (IDPA), viii, 8, 15

logit, 9, 10, 24, 48 Maximum Likelihood, 25 non-aggregated, ix, 8, 9, 10,

37 new town, iv, ix, x, xi, xii,

xiii, 1, 2, 4, 5, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 27, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 46, 47, 49, 51, 52, 61

other uses, iv, xii, 13, 20, 21, 36, 44, 45, 46, 47

ordinary residential

developments, xii, 13, 20, 28, 44, 45

Outline Zoning Plan (OZP),

viii, 3, 15, 16, 27 planning application, ix, x, xi,

xii, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 30, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 40, 44, 47, 50, 51, 53, 56, 58

planning intention, 3 planning permission, xi,

9, 12, 17, 18, 19 probit, ii, v, xiii, 4, 9, 10,

11, 14, 22, 23, 24, 29, 31, 32, 35, 48, 50, 52, 53, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 63

rent-seeking, ix, 11, 17,

18, 33, 36, 57 residential, ix, xii, 4, 10,

13, 18, 19, 20, 21, 28, 34, 36, 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 50, 53, 56, 57, 60

Town Planning Board (TPB), viii, ix, x, xi, xii, 4, 5, 11, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 25, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 44, 62

Town Planning Ordinance

(TPO), viii Village Type House (VTH),

viii, xii, xiii, 4, 13, 18, 19, 20, 28, 32, 34, 36, 43, 44, 47

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