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Department of Infrastructure and Planning
Population trends and future prospects for Queensland communitiesAlison Taylor
Independent Schools Queensland 2009 state conference
Friday28th August 2009
Outline
•Recent trends in • population growth • births • deaths and • migration.
•Future prospects• Where is the population growth likely to be?• Ageing of the population
•How will Queensland’s future growth impact on the demand for school facilities?
Australia’s population growth surges…years ending December
0
100
200
300
400
500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
('000s)
Natural increase Net overseas migration
Natural increase up 37,000
NOM up 143,000 (accounting for 80% of additional growth)
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. No. 3101.0
Two-thirds of Australia’s population growth is in the 3 big statesaverage annual change, years ending December
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. No. 3105.0 and 3101.0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
NSW Vic. Qld WA Bal. of Aus
1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008
10.2%
1.0%
7.4%
24.8%
20.1%
32.5%
2.3%
1.6%
SEQ*
13.8%
Victoria
ACT
New SouthWales
Tasmania
Queensland
Northern Territory
South Australia
Western Australia
Australia’s population distribution, by state and territory as at December 2008
Source: ABS CAT No 3101.0
2.2m
0.2m
1.6m
5.4m 0.5
m
0.3m
3.0m
4.3m
7.0m
*SEQ at June 2008
Net overseas migration is the main contributor to growthyear to December 2008
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat No.3101.0
-40,000
-20,000
00,000
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
NSW VIC QLD WA Bal of Aus.
Natural Increase Overseas Migration Interstate Migration
Births, Queensland, 1901-2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Baby boom
Baby boom echo
Record no. of births(63,131)
Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3301.0 Births Australia, various editions
2008 was also a record year for births at the national level
Longer term patterns of fertility, Australia and Queensland
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Bir
ths p
er
wo
man
Australia Queensland Replacement level
Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3301.0 Births Australia, various editions
End of WWII
Fertility peaked at 3.5 in 1961 Contraceptive
pill becomes freely available
Below replacement fertility for last 30 years
Baby boom
Great Depression
The impact of the pill in Australia…
The oral contraceptive pill was released in Australia in 1961 and for a time Doctors would only prescribe it for married women. By the mid-1970s however, the pill had become the most widely used method of contraception in Australia and Australian women were the highest users in the world. (Taking precautions: the story of contraception, Powerhouse Museum Sydney).
Life boils down to 2 questions…
Should I get a dog?
Or should I have children?
Deaths, Queensland, 1859-2008
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1859
1867
1875
1883
1891
1899
1907
1915
1923
1931
1939
1947
1955
1963
1971
1979
1987
1995
2003
Source: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, various editions
Life expectancy at birth, Queensland•1881-1890 males – 47.2 females - 50.9 (Australia)
•1920-1922 males – 59.2 females – 63.3 (Australia)
•1946-1948 males – 66.1 females – 70.6 (Australia)
•1971 males – 67.8 females – 74.7
•1991 males – 74.4 females – 80.5
•2001 males – 76.9 females – 82.3
•2006 males – 78.5 females – 83.4
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Male
FemaleSource: ABS Cat no. 3105.0.65.001 Australian historical population statistics and ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, various editions
Life expectancy at selected ages
•At 25 years of age – male 54.9 years, female 59.3 years
•At 45 years of age – male 36.0 years, female 39.7 years
•At 50 years of age – male 31.4 years, female 35.2 years
•At 65 years of age – male 18.5 years, female 21.6 years
Source: ABS Cat no. 3302.0 Deaths Australia, 2007
Net overseas migration, Queenslandyears ending December
Source: ABS Cat no. 3101.0, various editions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
QLD Net Overseas % Australia
Top 10 birthplace countries for settler arrivalsYear to June 2008
Rank Country of Birth Persons Per cent
1 New Zealand 13,009 40.0%
2 United Kingdom 5,954 18.3%
3 South Africa 1,570 4.8%
4 India 1,228 3.8%
5 Philippines 1,070 3.3%
6 China (Excl. SAR & Taiwan) 846 2.6%
7 Malaysia 500 1.5%
8 Korea 425 1.3%
9 Fiji 420 1.3%
10 Thailand 380 1.2%
Subtotal 25,402 78.2%
Total 32,496 100.0%
Source: Overseas migration to Queensland 2009, PIFU, July 2009
Net interstate migration, Queensland years ending December
Source: ABS Cat no. 3101.0, various editions
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Changing age distribution of net interstate migration, Queenslandyears ending June
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
(Th
ou
sa
nd
Pe
rso
ns)
2000 2008
Source: ABS Cat no. 3412.0, various editions
Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0
Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)
Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)
Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Fraser Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)Coast (R)
Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)
Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)
Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)
Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)Longreach (R)
Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)
Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)
Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)Aurukun (S)
AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDCHANGE 2001-2008(p*), QUEENSLANDBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGIONBY GEOGRAPHIC REGION
South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)South East (10 LGAs)
East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)East Coast (26 LGAs)
Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)Inland (15 LGAs)
Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)Western (23 LGAs)
4,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 20084,293,915 ERP 200894,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual 94,996 Average Annual Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change Change
971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793971,793
73,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,29373,293
402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941402,941
2,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,0292,847,02960,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,73160,731
5,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,4325,432
-372-372-372-372-372-372-372-372-372
22,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,44622,446
(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary Estimate(p*) Preliminary EstimateRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census dataRebased of Census data
Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:Queensland:
10 fastest growing LGAs in Queenslandaverage annual growth, 2001-2006 and 2007-2008
Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0
NB: Excludes Indigenous councils.
2001-2006 2007-2008
Rank LGA No. % No. %
1 Ipswich (C) 3,405 2.2% 6,104 4.1%
2 Cairns (R) 3,889 2.5% 5,985 3.9%
3 Moreton Bay (R) 9,266 2.6% 11,831 3.4%
4 Fraser Coast (R) 3,009 3.1% 3,124 3.4%
5 Gladstone (R) 1,514 2.6% 1,871 3.4%
6 Lockyer Valley (R) 653 1.9% 1,073 3.3%
7 Whitsunday (R) 685 2.1% 997 3.1%
8 Townsville (C) 4,098 2.3% 5,134 3.0%
9 Sunshine Coast (R) 9,583 3.1% 8,734 2.9%
10 Gold Coast (C) 15,866 3.2% 13,210 2.7%
10 largest growing LGAs in Queenslandaverage annual growth, 2001-2006 and 2007-2008
Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0
NB: Excludes Indigenous councils.
2001-2006 2007-2008
Rank LGA No. % No. %
1 Brisbane (C) 18,922 1.9% 17,368 1.7%
2 Gold Coast (C) 15,866 3.4% 13,210 2.7%
3 Moreton Bay (R) 9,266 2.8% 11,831 3.4%
4 Sunshine Coast (R) 9,583 3.2% 8,734 2.9%
5 Ipswich (C) 3,405 2.4% 6,104 4.1%
6 Cairns (R) 3,889 2.6% 5,985 3.9%
7 Logan (C) 4,557 1.8% 5,225 2.0%
8 Townsville (C) 4,098 2.5% 5,134 3.0%
9 Fraser Coast (R) 3,009 3.4% 3,124 3.4%
10 Redland (C) 2,792 2.1% 2,876 2.1%
10 largest growing LGAs in Regional QueenslandAverage annual growth, 2001-2006, 2007-2008
Source: ABS Cat No 3218.0.
2001-2006 2007-2008
Rank LGA No. % No. %
1 Cairns (RC) 3,889 3.0 5,985 3.9
2 Townsville (C) 4,098 2.8 5,134 3.0
3 Fraser Coast (RC) 2,968 4.0 3,124 3.4
4 Mackay (RC) 3,250 3.6 2,650 2.4
5 Bundaberg (RC) 1,791 2.2 2,039 2.3
6 Gladstone (RC) 1,514 3.3 1,871 3.4
7 Toowoomba (RC) 2,741 1.8 1,657 1.1
8 Rockhampton (RC) 1,858 1.9 1,412 1.3
9 Gympie (RC) 1,115 2.9 1,084 2.4
10 Whitsunday (RC) 685 2.5 997 3.1
Three series of population projections are produced
•Low, medium and high series are produced
•These reflect more or less optimistic assumptions leading to a lower projected population in the low series and a higher projection in the high series
•We encourage use of a range (between the low and high outcomes), rather than a single number, to reflect variability
•Other outcomes may eventuate if any of the assumptions diverge from what has been assumed
Actual & projected population, Queensland1976 to 2056
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
2056
Mill
ion
pe
rso
ns
Actual Projected
High
Medium
Low
4.1m in 2006
Between 5.5m - 6.4m
at 2026
Between 7m - 10m at 2056
Source: ABS Cat No 3311.3 & Department of Infrastructure and Planning population
projections, 2008 ed.
Key facts
• 4.1m in 2006, 5.9m in 20 years and 8m in 50 years if resemble the medium series
• Higher growth in next 20 years (1.8m) than last 20 (1.5m)• Highest growth projected in the short term –
95,000pa till 2016
1 million 1938
2 million 1974
3 million 1992
4 million 2006
5 million 2016
6 million 2028
7 million 2042
8 million 2057
Population milestones
Sources: ABS Cat No 3311.3 & Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition
Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)Richmond (S)
Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Cairns (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)Tablelands (R)
Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)Rockhampton (R)
Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Central Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)Highlands (R)
Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)Dalby (R)
Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)Fraser Coast (R)
Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)Gladstone (R)
Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)Bundaberg (R)
Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Mount Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)Isa (C)
Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Roma (R)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)Quilpie (S)
Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)Barcoo (S)
Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)Townsville (C)
Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)Whitsunday (R)
Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)Mackay (R)
Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)Isaac (R)
Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)Cook (S)
Average Annual Population ChangeBy LGA, 2006-2031. Medium Series 2008 Ed.
10,000 to 12,900 (2)5,000 to 10,000 (4)1,000 to 5,000 (11)
100 to 1,000 (11)0 to 100 (22)
-100 to 0 (10)N/A (15)
Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Lockyer Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)Valley (R)
Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)Toowoomba (R)
Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)Somerset (R)
Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)Ipswich (C)
Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)Logan (C)
Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)Brisbane (C)
Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)Redland (C)
Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)Moreton Bay (R)
Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)Sunshine Coast (R)
Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Scenic Rim (R)Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold Gold
Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)Coast (C)
Inset
225 0 225 450
Kilometres
Inset
10 largest growing LGAs in Queenslandprojected average annual growth, 2006-2031
Population Average annual population change
Rank LGA 2006 2031 No. %
1 Gold Coast (C) 466,433 788,231 12,872 2.1
2 Ipswich (C) 142,400 434,788 11,696 4.6
3 Brisbane (C) 991,260 1,220,543 9,171 0.8
4 Sunshine Coast (R) 295,084 501,179 8,244 2.1
5 Moreton Bay (R) 332,862 523,037 7,607 1.8
6 Logan (C) 260,081 425,918 6,633 2.0
7 Townsville (C) 165,278 270,500 4,209 2.0
8 Toowoomba (R) 151,297 228,461 3,087 1.7
9 Cairns (R) 147,538 222,640 3,004 1.7
10 Mackay (R) 107,332 172,993 2,626 1.9
Source: DIP Population Projections 2008 ed. medium series
South East Queensland*
•2.77m people in 2007•Growth last 25 years (1981-2006) =
1.34m• Average 1981-2006 - 53,700 each year
• Average 2001-2006 - 66,340 each year
•Projected growth next 25 years (2006-2031) = 1.60m to reach 4.43m
• Average 2006-2031 - 64,100 each year
• Average 2006-2011 – 66,850 each year
* SEQ Region including Toowoomba Statistical District
South East Queensland - outlook
•Prospects are for strong growth to continue •Migration will continue to be the main driver of growth - overseas•Main cities – Brisbane, Gold Coast, (Moreton Bay), Sunshine Coast•Growth will be split between
• major greenfield areas of Ipswich, Logan and West Moreton
• Brisbane inner city infill and redevelopment
• coastal cities of Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast
• TODs and other centres or nodes
•Population will continue to cluster along the coast although policy, affordability and planned infrastructure provision will favour the west
Eastern Regional Queensland
•1.34m people in 2007
•Growth last 25 years (1981-2006) = 451,500• 1981-2006 – average of 18,000 each year• 2001-2006 – average of 26,700 each year
•Projected growth next 25 years (2006-2031) = 614,300 to reach 1.93m
• 2006-2031 – average of 24,575 each year
Eastern Regional Queensland - outlook
•Strong relative advantages•Impact of ongoing resource activity
• Resident workers
• Expansion of businesses to service industry
•Strong industrial, educational and tourism sectors lead to job creation and continuing migration prospects
•Lifestyle destinations will continue to attract people•Future population will concentrate even further into key regional
cities and major towns and these will account for most of the growth•Smaller communities (ageing, rationalisation of agricultural
workforce, increased contracting) to have small declines
Western Regional Queensland
•74,876 people in 2007•Decline last 25 years (1981-2006) =
10,000• 1981-2006 average of -400 each year
• 2001-2006 average of -520 each year
•Projected growth next 25 years (2006-2031) = 6,900 to reach 78,095
• 2006-2031 – average of 275 each year
• Past decades 10 yrs to 1991 -238, 10 yrs to 2001 -603
• Future decades 10 yrs to 2011 will be 93, 10 yrs to 2021 will be 17
What’s going to be different in the future?
1. Population ageing 2. Changing household structure
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,000
1986 2006 2026
Queensland age by sex, 1986, 2006, 2026
Source: ABS, Cat. No. 3201.0 & Department of Infrastructure and Planning population projections, 2008 edition, Medium series
Males Females
ERP Totals
1986 – 2,624,595
2006 – 4,091,412
2026 – 5,884,390
Population change by broad age groups, QLDdecades ending
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2016 2026 2036 2046 2056
0-14 15-44 45-64 65-84 85+
Source: ABS, Department of Infrastructure and Planning population projections, 2008 edition, Medium Series
Projected changes to Queensland’s age structure
Of the projected increase of 2.2m people over the next 25 years
• 36% (or 781,000 people) will be 65 and over
• 24% (or 519,500 people) will be between 45 and 64 years
• 20% (or 428,000 people) will be between 25 and 44 years
• 12% (or 275,250 people will be less than 15 years
• 8% (or 178,430 people) will be between 15 and 24 years
13%
8%
20%
24%
35%
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65 and over
Households with and without children, Queensland, 2006-2031
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Ho
useh
old
s
Households with children Households without children
Source: PIFU Projections of households, dwellings and living arrangements, 2009 edition
Past and projected change to SEQ age structure
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
10 years to 2001 10 years to 2011 10 years to 2021 10 years to 2031
Past and projected change to Eastern Regional Queensland age structure
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
10 years to 2001 10 years to 2011 10 years to 2021 10 years to 2031
Past and projected change to Western Regional Queensland age structure
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
10 years to 2001 10 years to 2011 10 years to 2021 10 years to 2031
Fastest growing areas projected school age population (5-14)
Growth 2006 to 2011 Absolute Growth
Gold Coast City 2.2% 6,477
Ipswich City 1.9% 2,170
Isaac Regional Council 1.8% 316
Gladstone Regional Council 1.7% 776
Townsville City Council 1.4% 1,770
(LGAs excluded where growth over the 5 years is less than 100 persons)
Growth 2011 to 2016 Absolute Growth
Ipswich City 4.6% 6,303
Scenic Rim Regional Council 4.0% 1,196
Isaac Regional Council 3.6% 714
Gold Coast City 2.2% 7,432
Townsville City 2.2% 2,972
(LGAs excluded where growth over the 5 years is less than 100 persons)
Source Data: Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition
Largest growing areas projected school age population (5-14)
Absolute Change 2006 to 2011
Gold Coast City Council 6,477
Brisbane City Council 5,300
Sunshine Coast Regional Council 2,640
Moreton Bay Regional Council 2,578
Ipswich City Council 2,170
Absolute Change 2011 to 2016
Brisbane City Council 8,093
Gold Coast City Council 7,432
Ipswich City Council 6,303
Moreton Bay Regional Council 4,409
Sunshine Coast Regional Council 4,192
Source Data: Qld Government Population Projections, 2008 edition
Summary
•Most of the future growth will be focused in the south east corner -particularly along the coast and in Ipswich
•Regional cities, also mostly along the coast except for Toowoomba, will also have continuing strong growth
•Smaller towns and localities, on or near the coast, adjacent to a larger centre or seen as lifestyle destinations, will grow
•Smaller centres inland or in western Queensland will have either stable populations or small declines
•Exceptions are locations near to resource development activity – if the associated workforce chooses to live locally
Queensland’s future population will be very different to the current one
•Size – will be much larger (2031 population will be 1.4 – 1.7 times larger than in 2006)
•Distribution – increasing concentration in SEQ but pace will slow as regional cities are the location of more growth than in past years. Western Queensland will continue to lose population but more slowly than in the past.
•Composition – ageing, ageing, ageing– Under 45 years 40% of growth– 45 years or more (60% of growth (one in three new people will be
aged 65 years or more)– More overseas born
Implications for the provision of school facilities
•School aged population to grow• Some areas will grow faster than others
• South East Queensland areas will record the largest amount of growth
•Projections are based on a set of assumptions• If people’s behaviour or influencing factors change, then the
assumptions may change altering the projection outcome
•Most growth will be in the older age groups• May be increased competition for resources
• More emphasis on flexibility and adaptability of facilities
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