demographics point to an increased role for training tom gillaspy, state demographer mn dept of...
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Demographics Point To An Increased Role For Training
Tom Gillaspy, State DemographerMn Dept of Administration
May 2009
Minnesota Has Been Very Successful
(Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road)
• Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average
• Our population growth rate leads the frost belt
• We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators
• Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success
Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic Indicators
• 3rd percent of 16-64 employed (76.7%) Statistically tied with 6 states for first
• 2nd cost of living adjusted per capita income (OK DOC)
• 8th lowest poverty rate • 1st percent with health
insurance 2004-06 ave• 10th median family income 13%
above the nation• 2nd Kids Count 2008• 4th most livable state (Morgan
Quinto Press)
• 3rd lowest rate of disability among people age 21-64
• 2nd with at least high school degree (91%) statistically tied with Wyoming
• 11th with at least a bachelor’s degree
• 1st home ownership (75.2%)• 4th United Health Foundation
ranking of state healthiness 2008
Updated February 2009
Past PerformanceDoes Not EnsureFuture Results
Four Mega-Forces Will Shape Minnesota’s Economy
• Globalization• Technology• Energy prices• Demography
Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation
• It is not normal for a society to age• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and
2011 and beyond• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+
will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double
• Aging and economic growth will lead to challenges and opportunities not fully anticipated
Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
7/05 to7/06
7/06 to7/07
7/07 to7/08
7/08 to7/09
7/09 to7/10
7/10 to7/11
7/11 to7/12
Year Turning Age 62
Wor
ked
With
in P
ast 5
yea
rs
2005 ACS
From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will See Large Increases Age 50s and 60s
20,15036,190
47,3305,050
-30,680-9,980
47,95061,920
-2,680-63,650
-42,31054,240
102,960112,540
91,37041,400
8,44016,500
0-45-9
10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
Source: Minnesota State Demographic CenterNumbers are rounded
Competition For Future College Students Will Increase
6.8%
4.5%
-1.6% -2.2%
13.0%
-1.2%
-3.5% -3.0%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20
Perc
ent C
hang
e 18
-24 US
Mn
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007. The 18 year oldpopulation, both Minnesota & nationally are projected to decline starting 2009.
Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply
1.52%
1.12%
0.75%
0.43%
0.10% 0.13%0.27%
0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%
1990-2000
2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35
Ave
Ann
ual C
hang
e
World Labor Force Growth SlowingProjected Change In Working Age Population (15-64)
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Minnesota UnitedStates
Europe China Japan Rest ofAsia
SouthAmerica
Africa
Continent
Ann
ual %
Cha
nge
2000-102010-20
U.S. Census Bureau
Productivity Has Been Minnesota’s Competitive Advantage
It will be even more important inThe Next Generation EconomyThe Next Generation Economy
Productivity Remains The Key To Quality of Life In MinnesotaEconomic Growth=Labor Force Growth + Productivity GrowthProductivity growth comes fromPrivate investment—machines & processesPublic investment—roads, bridges, etcTechnology from research, public & privateSkills & abilities of workers—education &
training
The New 3 R’s for Economic Success
• Retention• Recruitment• Retraining
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