dealing with uncertainty: statewide retention conference, march 5, 2008 presenters: beckie...
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Dealing with Uncertainty:
Statewide Retention Conference, March 5, 2008Presenters: Beckie Hermansen, Craig Mathie, Mat Barreiro
How Snow College students “START SMART”
Exchange
EXCHANGEOf student’s time, efforts, knowledge
for education offered by the
institution
Student Institution
Explicit Contracts and Implicit Contracts Little or no guarantee = uncertainty
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Anticipatory Socialization
Persistence and
Graduation
Postsecondary Socialization
Socialization process marked by high levels
of uncertainty and increased risk of exit from the institution
Registration Graduation
Socialization for students not participation in an orientation
Anticipatory Socialization (Orientation)
Registration Graduation
Socialization process marked by
lower levels of uncertainty and
lowered risk of pre-mature departure
Socialization for students participating in an orientation
Persistence Study Model
CollegePersistence
First Semester G
PA
First Year GPA
Graduation Rates
Departure over time
Transfer Rates
Survival over time
Start Smart Orientation• Began Fall 2000• Faculty Section Leaders• 2 sophomore mentors• Two full-days prior to fall semester (activities, workshops,
resources)• Three additional meetings (September, October, November)• Two one-on-one meetings with Section Leader• Text: Off to College• Finding your Niche exercise and Freshman Student
Survey • Grading is Credit or Non-Credit• Enrollment not required but strongly encouraged• Only offered Fall semester
Start Smart—the Experience!!!• Move in early!!!• Welcome Assembly• Section Meetings
(2)• Ice Breaker Games• Library
Tour/Activity• Computer
Lab/Email• Majors Meetings• Life Skills
Workshops• ID Card• Look for Jobs• Find your classes• Practical advice (“the
ropes”)
• Cafeteria Card• Bookstore• Registration• Cashiers/Pay Bill• Advisement• Parent’s
Workshop(s)• President’s BBQ• Huge Evening
Activity• New Student
Survey
Section Meeting :• College
Adjustment• Roommates• Dealing with
Professors• Dealing with
Parents• Homesickness• College Events• Basic Study
Advice• Question/Answer
Section Meeting :• College Life• Test Anxiety• More Study Skills• Academic
Resources• Personal
Resources• Maintaining
Health• Personal
Management• Question/Answer
Section Meeting (1)• End of Term
Advice• Preparing for
Finals• “Finding you
Niche”• Post Student
Survey• Progress
Reflection• Question/Answer
Individual Meetings
with Faculty Section Leader
Individual Meetings
with Faculty Section Leader
Often one of the section meetings is a dinner or similar event held in the faculty member’s home. Faculty are reimbursed up to $75 for food expenses.
2 DAYS SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
Research QuestionsFirst Semester GPA
First Year GPA
Graduation Rates
Transfer Rates
Depart over Time
Survival over Time
Do Start Smart students experience higher first semester and first year cumulative GPAs than non-Start Smart students?
Do Start Smart students have higher graduation rates?
Do Start Smart students experience less attrition after the first full year of college than non-Start Smart students?
Do Start Smart students have higher transfer rates?
Descriptive Statistics (N = 6,737)
• 6 Cohorts (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005)
• 3,764 Start Smart; 2,973 non-Start Smart• 4,153 (62%) female; 2,584 (38%) male• Average age = 19• White = 93.1%• 88.8% Full-time, 11.2% Part-time• 87.8% Resident, 12.2% Non-Resident• Average High school GPA = 3.4• Average ACT score = 20.65 (96% reported
a score)• Degree = 36.5% awarded, 63.5% not
awarded
RQ1: Comparing 1st semester GPA:
• Multiple Regression on First Semester Cumulative GPA : (r2) = .391
• Significant relationships:• ACT score (t(6462) = 26.403, p = .000• Start Smart (t(6462) = 15.496, p = .000)• Gender (t(6462) = -11.693, p = .000)• High school GPA (t(6462) = 5.586, p = .000)
This indicated a relationship between Start Smart enrollment and 1st semester cumulative GPA; however, significant relationships were also found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart indirectly influenced 1st semester cumulative grades to be at least one grade higher than non-Start Smart students.
Averages:
T1 GPA = 2.84High school GPA =3.4ACT Score = 20.65
RQ1: Comparing 1st semester GPA:
Not Start Smart Start Smart0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1.88
2.362.16
2.662.86
3.193.17
3.41
1st Term Cumulative GPA
GNSTACTHSGPAAll
RQ1: Comparing 2nd semester GPA:
• Multiple Regression on First Year Cumulative GPA, (r2) = .337
• Significant relationships:• ACT Score (t(5157) = 22.608, p = .000)• Gender (t(5157) = -10.711, p = .000)• Start Smart (t(5157) = 7.165, p = .000)• High school GPA t(5157) = 3.554, p = .000
Consistent with 1st semester findings, a relationship was found between Start Smart and 2nd semester cumulative GPA. Additional significant relationships were found for ACT score, gender (female), and high school GPA. Start Smart students generally had 2nd semester cumulative GPAs approximately one grade higher than their non-Start Smart peers.
RQ1:
Comparing 2nd semester GPA:
Averages:
T2 GPA = 2.89High school GPA =3.4ACT Score = 20.65
Not Start Smart Start Smart0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1.91
2.252.23
2.58
2.87
3.123.183.38
1st Year Cumulative GPA
GNSTACTHSGPAAll
RQ2:
Comparing Graduation Rates
• Correlation on Graduation Rate and Group, r = .185, α = .01Descriptive Comparison between START SMART and non START SMART Graduation
AA AS ASB* APE AAS CER* % Graduates
Start Smart 268 1233 43 2 36 16 1,598/ 64% (tot)
Non-Start Smart 161 627 16 4 27 27 862/ 35% (tot)
Start Smart students graduated almost 2 to 1 (1.8:1.0) compared to non-Start Smart students by the 4th semester.
Non-Start Smart Start Smart0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
862
1598
Start Smart vs. non-Start Smart Graduates
TOTAL
RQ3: Comparing withdrawal over
time• Survival Analysis
• Dependent Variable = Time and Status -- for this cohort there were 12 time intervals or semesters, excluding summer terms-- status was either censored (no event) or uncensored (terminating event)
• Independent Variables =
~ Age~ Gender~ Ethnicity~ High School GPA~ ACT Score~ Start Smart
RQ3:Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort
(00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students).Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 4.0 semesters/ non-SS = 3.9 semesters
Comparing withdrawal over time
1086420
TIME
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Cu
m S
urv
iva
l
1-censored
0-censored
1
0
CRS01
Survival Functions
RQ3:Predicted Survival and Hazard Functions for the Fall 200 Freshman Cohort
(00 equals non-Start Smart or Orientation participants; 1.00 = Start Smart Orientation students).Mean Life statistic: Start Smart = 3.4 semesters/ non-SS = 3.1 semesters
Comparing withdrawal by 5th semester
420
TIME
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Cu
m S
urv
iva
l
1-censored
0-censored
1
0
CRS01
Survival Functions
RQ4:
Comparing Transfer Rates
• Pearson Correlation: r = -.079; α = .05
44
15
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GNST
N-GNST Non-Start Smart Transfer Rate = 116/556 or 21%
Start Smart Transfer Rate = 96/587 or 16%
It seemed that Start Smart students were less likely to transfer than their non-Start Smart peers.
Implications• Survival analysis:
– Incorporating time as a dependent variable (whether and when a terminating event occurs)
• Different elements affecting persistence:– Pre-college characteristics– Collegiate characteristics
• Predictive ability:– Logistic regression goes beyond correlation to
prediction– CumGPA = Start Smart + ACT + HSGPA + Gender
+ Constant
• In-depth assessment of effectiveness– Fiscal support of Start Smart– Comprehensive program assessment for
accreditation– Support to competing enrollments and retention
Recommendations• Interactions between predictors and time:
– Highlight key departure times– Determine transient or permanent effects– Investigate decision-making processes at departure (the
m-factor)– Develop responsive programs or policies at key
departure times– Repetitive studies of subsequent cohorts– Comparative studies with “program-change” cohorts
• Program Format:– New syllabus with GE Outcomes foundation– Start Smart working in tandem with Capstone– E-portfolios– Assessment of outcome achievement through pre and
post-testing– More student success driven with a GE outcome base
and enhanced faculty support (i.e. learning activities driven by GE outcomes).
– Different text and meeting times (more substance)– Mandatory enrollment?
Questions?
THANK YOU!
For copies of this presentation please go to http://www.snow.edu/ir/presentations.html
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