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2019 NALCAB National Training

Data and Mapping Tools for Anticipating Neighborhood Change

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Program Development

Neighborhood Stabilization Program 2:

2010-2016 $220 Million Deployed

San Francisco Mission Promise

Neighborhood Housing Assessment (March

2015)

HUD Technical Assistance Provider

https://www.nalcab.org/equitable-neighborhood-development/

In what ways is your community changing?

Anticipating Neighborhood Change

Identify the Factors 01

02

03

Understanding Market Changes

Anticipating Market Activity

& Real Estate Price Appreciation

Identify the Factors

01 ➢ Drawing on local knowledge about how

politics, economics, history, and culture

shape development and population

movements in a community, and

➢ Collecting, analyzing, and mapping

socioeconomic, demographic, housing,

and investment data.

• Median Rent or Median Home Value

• Median Household Income

• Population 25 years+ with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher

• Race/Ethnicity: Non-Hispanic White population

Neighborhood Trend Analysis

$47,937 21.6%

Neighborhood

Trend Analysis

City of San Antonio

2000-2010

What is driving change in your community?

Understanding Market Changes

02 ➢ Analyze the factors causing change to

understand where development and

real estate price appreciation are likely

to occur in the future.

Catalysts for Neighborhood Change

Proximity to Changing Neighborhoods

Public & Private Investment

Housing Affordability

Accessibility to Assets

Availability of Property

Other

Factors Driving Change

How has the community changed demographically and economically

over time?

How have public/ private actions and investment decisions

contributed to changes in the community?

Questions to Address

Housing Construction and

Rehabilitation Activity

Source: City of San Antonio

City of San Antonio

2011-2016

Value of Building Permits

Low High

Public Investment Activity

Source: City of San Antonio

City of San Antonio

2011-2018

Bond 2012, Bond 2017, CCDO 2011-

2017, HOME 2011-2016

Value of Investments

Low High

Total Home Value

Appraisal Changes

Source: BCAD

City of San Antonio

What challenges and/or opportunities does

neighborhood change present?

Anticipating Activity & Appreciation

➢ Anticipate the impact and

implications of real estate market

changes for low- and moderate-

income households.

03

Impact and Implications

for Low- and Moderate-Income Households

Income-based

Physical/mental health-related

Social vulnerability

Vulnerability related to discrimination

Others?

Vulnerable Households

Subsidized rental units with expiring affordability

“Naturally-occurring” affordable rental housing in appreciating areas

Homeownership housing and rising property taxes

Mobile home communities

Environmental hazards

Housing in disrepair

Vulnerable Housing Stock

Neighborhood improvements

New housing/commercial

More family-friendly entertainment events

Healthier food options

A more diverse community

Increase in home values

Decrease in crime

Increase customer base for community businesses

Benefits of Revitalization

Vulnerable Households

Source: ACS, HouseCanary

City of Houston

2011 - 2017

* Average Appreciation Rate was 84.4%

Vulnerable Housing Stock

Source: PolicyMap

City of Los Angeles

2017

Data & Resources

FactFinder/American Community Survey (ACS)

Brown University Longitudinal Tract Database (LTDB)

HUD CPD Maps/HUD AFFH Data and Mapping Tool

Community Analyst

HMDA Data

Demographic Data

Open Records Request (e.g. building permits, capital projects, etc.)

Neighborhood/City/ County Plans

Tax Appraisal

Local Board of Realtors

Community Stakeholders (schools, nonprofits, businesses, residents, etc.)

Local Data

Affordability - Paycheck to Paycheck Tool

Existing Resources - Housing and Economic Development Funding/ Finance/Programs

Review of Public Investments/Policies/ Community Development Programs

CoStar – comprehensive real estate data

Other Resources

Networking Break

30 Minute

Current Work

With support from JPMorgan Chase

Foundation and W. K. Kellogg

Foundation – NALCAB is providing

grants, technical assistance, and

training to 17 non-profit

organizations, in 15 different

markets, to develop and implement

place-based, data- and community-

driven action plans for equitable

development.

A data-driven plan to analyze and

anticipate the impact of neighborhood

change on low- and moderate-income

communities and to inform the

implementation of place-based strategies

for equitable development.

Equitable Neighborhood Development

Action Plan

Goals, Strategies, and

Actions

Metrics of Success

Key Resources

Defining Equitable

Development

Telling the story of your

community

Data/Market Observations

Equitable Neighborhood Development

Action Plan

What are actions we can take to foster equitable development in our cities and neighborhoods?

Goal

Strategy

Action step(s)

Group Activity

Large Group Report Out

Lessons Learned

Example: City of San Antonio

Supported and facilitated

the strategic planning

efforts of the San

Antonio Mayor’s

Housing Policy Task

Force (2018)

Assisted COSA to assess

City housing programs

and develop the 5-Year

HUD Consolidated

Plan (2014-2015)

Developed the City’s first

Housing Vulnerability

Analysis (2017-2018)

Assessed the Eastside

Promise

Neighborhood

Initiative and developed

a Strategic Plan for

Sustainability (2016-

2018)

Assisted COSA and

SAHA to jointly develop

an Analysis of

Impediments to Fair

Housing (2018-2019)

City of San Antonio

Provided an

organizational

assessment and strategic

recommendations for

San Antonio Housing

Trust (2018-2019)

Strategies

Mayor’s Housing Policy Task Force (MHPTF)

• Develop a coordinated housing system

• Increase city investment in housing

• Increase affordable housing production,

rehabilitation, and preservation

• Protect and promote neighborhoods

• Ensure accountability to the public

https://www.sanantonio.gov/Portals/0/Files/HousingPolicy/Resources/SA-HousingPolicyFramework.pdf

Avanzando Comunidades: People, Places, and Policy Tour

Journey to the heart of San Antonio’s established and historic downtown communities to explore investment patterns and understand local policies that are shaping neighborhoods. Get a first-hand look at the dynamics of development and its impact on inner city residents.

• Present Ticket to board bus

• Location – Main Lobby

• Departure Time – 1:45pm

THANK YOU!

Jake WhiteSr. Program Manager

jwhite@nalcab.org

Melissa MedinaProgram Manager

mmedina@nalcab.org

Marcella ReyesProgram Coordinatormreyes@nalcab.org

George SanchezGIS Analyst

gsanchez@nalcab.org