dash climate nyu mar2013

Climate Science, Impacts, Risk Management, and What We Can Do NYU Seminar Talk March 2013

Jan W. Dash, PhD Climate Initiative Chair, Unitarian Universalist UN Office Climate Science Rapid Response Team Matchmaker

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Outline – Overview of Climate

 Climate Science – Most relevant fact = ◦ Recent Global Warming is due to us

 Climate Impacts: Many, almost all bad ◦  Example Sea Level Rise ◦  So What?

 Risk Management & What can we do?  Ethics: Why should we do anything?  The Pseudoscience Deniers ◦ What do they say? Who supports them?

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Science Fact: Recent Global warming exists, due to humans. Natural variation out (El Niños/La Niñas, volcanoes, sun): Average temperature going UP

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Global Warming / Climate Impacts

 Many impacts – practically all bad  We see impacts now, only faint rumbling

of future impacts if we do not act ◦  Less FOOD – crops die at high temperatures ◦  Less WATER – glaciers, snow packs melting ◦ More DISEASE – insect vectors moving north ◦ More WARS – over food, water

 Other examples: Sea level rise SLR, Ocean acidification, Extreme weather (Sandy)

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U. S. Navy is concerned

  Sea Level Rise Scenario: 3 - 6 feet by 2100

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NOAA data, projections to 2100

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SLR and Global Warming

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So What? – Vulnerable US (NOAA) East Coast “hot spot” for SLR

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Migration, war, national security

 Millions worldwide now living in coastal regions will be displaced by rising seas

 Where will they go?  More wars will result

 Pentagon US National Security issue ◦ Quadrennial Defense Review 2010

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Small Island Nations Threatened (IPCC Extreme Climate report 2011). Following Talk this seminar

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Ocean Acidification, Higher Temperatures, and the Food Chain  Ocean absorbs CO2 => carbonic acid  Ocean acidification hurts food chain ◦ Algae, shellfish, coral reefs… => fewer FISH

 Higher sea temperature hurts food chain ◦  Phytoplankton decrease => fewer FISH

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What about SANDY in NJ/NY?

 Global warming puts more energy into the weather system for extreme events

  Specifics making Sandy worse ◦  Sea level rise. Higher sea temperature. Also:

 Arctic T up more jet stream instability ◦ Maybe some influence on Sandy turning left

 Details complicated, and exact attribution not possible, but probably global warming made Sandy worse.

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Sandy, Jet Stream, Global Warming

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Climate Risk Management

 Recognition of risks: 2 types ◦ Average risk: probable, low impact ◦ Tail risk: less probable, high impact

 Rational response to risk - lower it!  The best way to think about the response

to climate is RISK MANAGEMENT ◦  Stop BAU = Business As Usual ◦  If BAU, today’s tail climate risk becomes

tomorrow’s average climate risk

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What Can We Do: Climate Mitigation – no silver bullet. Progress, need MORE  Action by individuals  Action by organizations ◦ Corporations, Universities, Faith-based, NGOs

 Action at all levels of government ◦ City, State, Regional, National, International

 Action to support non-fossil energy  Mitigation Volume IPCC = 1,000 pages  Please note: Citizens Climate Lobby ◦ Carbon Tax + Dividend back to people

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Climate Ethics  Climate justice: Poor have the smallest

effect on climate – are hurt the worst  However, no place to hide ◦ U.S. will be hit very hard if BAU prevails

  Intergenerational ethics: Our descendants ◦ More humane and cheaper for preventive

action now rather than disaster adaptive action by our descendants in the future

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Climate Science Deniers / Contrarians / Faux Skeptics   “We Have No Climate Risk” 4 trenches:

1.  Deny global warming 2.  Deny human influence on climate 3.  Minimize climate impact risk 4.  Exaggerate cost of climate action mitigation

 Oppose climate action, renewable energy  Create doubt = tobacco tactic (Oreskes)

  “Science can’t prove so we shouldn’t act”   Cherry pick, propose flimsy arguments

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Contrarian/Denier Pseudoscience Disinformation – Ex: Arctic ice loss

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North Carolina and Cnut the Great

  (Reuters) - Lawmakers in North Carolina voted to ignore studies predicting a rapid rise in sea level due to climate change and postpone planning for the consequences.

  Cnut the Great ordered the sea not to rise 1000 years ago

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Who Supports Contrarian Deniers?

  Fossil Fuel Co. FFC – Exxon Mobile, Koch ◦  FFCs want to be able to burn every available

carbon molecule (gas/oil/coal) in the ground ◦ Otherwise STRANDED ASSETS ◦ Would reduce FFC $wealth, $stock price

 Libertarians: Tea Party, Koch, Faux News... ◦  Basically oppose government action ◦  But governments must act to mitigate climate ◦  So libertarians try to “kill the message”

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Here are some resources   IPCC Science Report 2007

  Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment

  Skeptical Science website – see “one liners”

  UU-UNO Climate Portal: soup to nuts climate

  U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review (2010)

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Bottom Line – We have a big problem and we can solve it  Human activities are causing recent global

warming trend of climate change  Climate impacts mostly bad, observed now,

and will become far worse if we do not act  Climate action is opposed by strong forces  NOT too late to prevent worst impacts  You can help

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Thank You

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