current/future directions for air force space weather
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Current/Future Directions for Air Force Space Weather
Dr. Joel B. MozerBattlespace Environment Division
Space Vehicles Directorate
Air Force Research Laboratory
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Leading the discovery, development, and integration of affordable technologies for our air, space and cyberspace force.
Leading the discovery, development, and integration of affordable technologies for our air, space and cyberspace force.
It’s not just about the science……it’s about leadership in S&T
It’s not just about the science……it’s about leadership in S&T
AFRL Mission
Space Weather Research at AFRL
• Why is the Air Force interested in Space Weather?
• What is the current state of Space Weather within the AF?
• What does the future look like?
Leading the nation for forecasting the Space Environment3
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Space Services
Navigation
Communications
Weather
Space assets are pervasive in civilian and
defense services
Precision Strike
ISR
Why is the AF interested in SWx?
• Satellite Operations
– Rapid anomaly assessment – was it a bug, the environment, or the enemy?
– Protection and mitigation important
• Satellite Design
– How much shielding?
– How long of a lifetime?
• Space Situational Awareness
– Enabling good decisions based on good knowledge of battlespace
• The Ionosphere
– Impacts many RF-based systems communicating through, or across it
– GPS, Satellite Communication, HF Communication, etc.
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Space Weather Impacts Nearly Every AF Mission!
Hazards of Space EnvironmentSatellite Systems
• Vacuum welding
• UV damage
• Sputtering
• Corrosiveness of atomic oxygen
• Plasma-induced charging
• Micrometeoroids
• Fluctuating magnetic fields
• Energetic charged particles / radiation
• Neutral atmosphere drag
• Solar radio noise
• Debris / collisions
• Ionosphere (ground communications)6 of 23
Satellite Communications
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High
Med
Low
Imp
act
Development of SATCOM systems• Broad trade space (bandwidth, coverage, cost, survivability, security)• Ionospheric scintillation very important
• UHF/VHF most affected• Equatorial regions most affected
What is the current state of SWx?
• Environmental monitoring
– Space-based: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)
– Ground-based: Solar Electro Optical Network (SEON)
• Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON) – 4 telescopes worldwide
• Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) – 4 observatories,
– Civilian (non AF) assets: ACE, LASCO, etc.
• Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
– Ingests data
– Runs assimilative and forecast models (relatively primitive)
– Produces forecasts & system impact products
• Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC)
– Assesses environment
– Tasks satellites
• Satellite Design Centers
– Use standard empirical models of radiation environments
– Often engineer around Space Weather effects (at high cost)
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Space Weather Lags Tropospheric Weather by 30 years!
Space Wx ForecastingSpace Wx Forecasting
• Currently in the era of specification
– Climatology for satellite design
– Post-anomaly resolution
• Predictive decision aids increasingly required
– More dependence on space
– More sensitivity to environmental effects
Tropospheric Wx ForecastingTropospheric Wx Forecasting
• Lots of data!
• Robust operational numerical weather prediction
• Impacts well known
• Culture of considering weather effects (e.g., ATOs)
• Infrastructure to support rapid data dissemination
24-hr fcst of 500mb winds/clouds over SW Asia
Vision: Dynamic data-driven models to provide products with real military utility delivered to warfighter
Space Weather Forecasting10-year Vision
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Space WeatherAFSPC Vision
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Sun-to-Mud CouplingState of the Science
Solar InteriorMHD dynamicsEmerging magnetic fluxBackside imaging (helioseismology)
Solar InteriorMHD dynamicsEmerging magnetic fluxBackside imaging (helioseismology)
Photosphere & Chromosphere
Mag. FieldSolar Energetic Particles (SEPs)Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)Coronal holes / solar wind Radio BurstsX-ray/EUV emissions
Photosphere & Chromosphere
Mag. FieldSolar Energetic Particles (SEPs)Flares / Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)Coronal holes / solar wind Radio BurstsX-ray/EUV emissions
HeliosphereInterplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)Solar WindShocks/SEPsCMEs
HeliosphereInterplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)Solar WindShocks/SEPsCMEs
MagnetosphereIMFMagnetic storms/substormsAuroral zones/ring currentsPolar Cap PotentialRadiation BeltsSouth Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)
MagnetosphereIMFMagnetic storms/substormsAuroral zones/ring currentsPolar Cap PotentialRadiation BeltsSouth Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)
Thermosphere & Ionosphere
Plasma bubbles / equatorial anomaliesScintillation / density fluctuationNeutral windsTravelling iono. disturbancesUV HeatingIon chemistryBulk ionosphere
Thermosphere & Ionosphere
Plasma bubbles / equatorial anomaliesScintillation / density fluctuationNeutral windsTravelling iono. disturbancesUV HeatingIon chemistryBulk ionosphere
Driven/Compliant System
Persistent System
Legend6.1 – TRL 1-26.2 – TRL 3-46.3 – TRL 5-6
Legend6.1 – TRL 1-26.2 – TRL 3-46.3 – TRL 5-6
Covering all the pieces of a very complex system!11
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Examples of AFRL Space Weather Technology Projects
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Solar Disturbance PredictionAnd Impacts On DoD Systems
• Large-aperture telescope design and construction
• Remote sensing of solar & coronal vector magnetic fields and electric currents
• Energy storage and release mechanisms in large magnetic plasmas
• Characterization of coronal mass ejections (size, density, magnetic configuration, etc.)
Technology Challenges
Objective: Develop full-range of sensors, models & products to provide reliable specification and prediction of solar and interplanetary disturbances and the hazards they pose to DoD missions and operations
Objective: Develop full-range of sensors, models & products to provide reliable specification and prediction of solar and interplanetary disturbances and the hazards they pose to DoD missions and operations
Space Weather starts a the Sun. Understanding solar disturbances is required to achieve 72-120 hour forecasts of SWx at Earth.
Space Weather starts a the Sun. Understanding solar disturbances is required to achieve 72-120 hour forecasts of SWx at Earth.
Advanced Tech. Solar Telescope (ATST)
Improved Solar Optical Observing Network (ISOON)
Space Sensing TechnologySolar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI)
SMEI Achievements/Milestones
• Launched January 2003
• First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob
• Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction
• Very high altitude aurora observations
• Gamma ray burst comparison study
• Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison
• Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs
• Eclipsing binary stellar studies
• ICME observations at Mars
• Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model comparison
• Comet tail “disruption event” discovery
• Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs
• Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics
SMEI Achievements/Milestones
• Launched January 2003
• First Halo Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) ob
• Tomographic measurements and 3-D reconstruction
• Very high altitude aurora observations
• Gamma ray burst comparison study
• Solar wind drag model and Ulysses data comparison
• Space weather evaluation for Earth-directed ICMEs
• Eclipsing binary stellar studies
• ICME observations at Mars
• Solar wind drag, driving Lorentz Force and model comparison
• Comet tail “disruption event” discovery
• Obs of ICMEs not connected with CMEs in coronagraphs
• Phenomenological model of ICME structure/kinematics
SMEI phenomenally successful first Heliospheric ImagerOver 100 publications to date!
Comet Tail DisconnectsResult of Interplanetary CME passage
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Comet LINEAR (C/2002 T7)
ICME
ACE Shock
LASCO Data
SMEI Model
CME/ICME: 30 November-05 December, 2004
The Tappin-Howard CME Propagation Model
Projected LASCO
Projected arrival time at ACE:
LASCO projection: 13:30 UT on 4 December.
TH Model projection: 07:15 UT on 5 December.
Actual arrival time at ACE:
06:56 UT on 5 December.
So the Tappin-Howard Model predicted an arrival time that was just 19 minutes later than the actual time!
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Ionospheric ImpactsOn DoD Systems
Objective: Develop & deploy sensors, models & products to specify, forecast & mitigate ionospheric disturbances & their impacts on DoD RF systems
Objective: Develop & deploy sensors, models & products to specify, forecast & mitigate ionospheric disturbances & their impacts on DoD RF systems
SatCom/GPSSatellite
Receiver
Scintillation,Comm dropouts,GPS loss of lock
IrregularitiesIn ionosphere
Systems Impacted by Scintillation
AF has no capability to forecast link outages caused by ionospheric scintillationAF has no capability to forecast link outages caused by ionospheric scintillation
Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS)
Milestones accomplished• Launched (April 16, 2008)
C/NOFS Instruments• C/NOFS Occultation (GPS) Receiver for Ionospheric
Sensing and Specification (CORISS)• Vector Electric Field Instrument (and mag) (VEFI)• Coherent EM Radio Tomography (CERTO)• Neutral Wind Meter (NWM)• Ion Velocity Meter (IVM)• Planar Langmuir Probe (PLP)
Work in progress• Understanding the data• Improved Models• Operational Demonstration
C/NOFS is on track for April 2008 LaunchC/NOFS is pathfinder for operational iono. missionC/NOFS is pathfinder for operational iono. mission
C/NOFS Components• Satellite• Ground Stations
•SCINDA•Beacons
• Models and Products
SCINDA Sites Thru 2008
DISS DISS TEC TEC
S4 S4
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Data Received
TEC
SCINDA Stations
DISS Stations
Ionospheric Monitors Data-Driven Modeling
C/NOFS System Components
GPS Error
COMM Outage
Satellite & Ground Stations
Specification Products
Data Assimilation
Physics-Based Forecasts
Data Center
Global/Regional MapsStatic, flat displays
Point-to-Point DataDynamic, interactive displays
SATCOM
GPS
RADARSATCOM
4D Data Grids 4D Data Grids 4D Data Grids
C/NOFS Data and Product Types
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Space Particle HazardsSpecification and Forecasting
Objectives: •Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space particle/radiation environments (local & globally) •Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts •Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems•Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment
Objectives: •Develop technology to measure/monitor /specify/forecast the space particle/radiation environments (local & globally) •Develop models of the magnetosphere & radiation belts •Predict the hazardous effects on DoD space systems•Develop technology to passively/actively defend against space environment
• Miniaturized Sensors
• Limited Data Sets – Measurements made in 1960s & 1970s
• Lack of understanding of non-linear dynamic radiation-belt processes
• Non-Standardized electrical & telemetry interfaces
Technology Challenges
South Atlantic Anomaly (horn of inner belt)
Aurora
Outer belt horn
Important for satellite acquisition…
• New AP-9/AE-9 standard radiation belt model being developed
• Provides significant improvement in coverage and statistics over current AP-8/AE-8 standard
• Sorely needed by satellite engineers to control risk, maximize capability and reduce cost in designing for new orbit regimes
… and for space situational awareness
• AFRL using CEASE/TSX-5 database to develop models of LEO radiation hazards
– Protons in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA)
– Electrons in the “Horns” of outer belt
• Drift of Earth’s internal magnetic field (0.3 – 0.45 deg/year) changes location of SAA - old maps inaccurate
• Accurate map crucial for mission planning, situational awareness and anomaly resolution
Aurora
1/2 maximum
1/10 maximum
Background x 3 maximum
Key: > 23 MeV, > 38 MeV, > 59 MeV, > 96 MeV
Proton boundaries at 800 km
> 1.2 MeV electron maps at 1050 km
Outer BeltInner Belt
Slot
HEO
RBSP
ICO
TSX5
DSX
GEO
LEO
Radiation environment
Space Weather SSA LEO Radiation Environment Models
Developing next-generation LEO radiation models for mission planning/situational awarenessDeveloping next-generation LEO radiation models for mission planning/situational awareness
REQUIREMENT
Improved SSA• Identify space weather effects• Timely anomaly resolution• Discrimination from hostile actions
Cultural AcceptanceAt least some space environment sensors are
needed on every asset
Miniaturized, Easily-Integrated InstrumentsExisting, upgraded, and novel instruments
affordably providing essential data
Distributed, Coordinated CapabilityAn architecture for configurable, distributed
instruments and on-board analysis
Accurate, timely and complete space environment information for operators and decision-makers
GOAL
S E D A R SSPACE ENVIRONMENT DISTRIBUTED ANOMALY RESOLUTION SYSTEM
Space Environment SensorsMicro-Meteoroid Impact Detector
IntegratedImpactStand-offSensor
OpticalFlash
DebrisPlasma
RFEmissions
AcousticSignature
MechanicalDeformation
Collaboration with AFRL/RVSV, NASA-JSC, & Sandia Natl Lab has begun. AFRL goal is to produce a flight instrument in FY11.
Preliminary experiments in FY04-06 demonstrated that an integrated optical and RF instrument could remotely detect hypervelocity (1–70 km/s) impacts.
Hypervelocity impacts to manned and unmanned spacecraft are an increasing threat.
micrometeoroids debris kinetic ASATs
“fre
qu
en
cy
”
2 GHz
8 MHz
0 µs 10 µstime
Wavelet analysis
electrostaticdischarge?
impacts
RF time series
IMPACT SIGNATURE ANALYSIS
Microwavereceiver
Debrisplasmasensor
Opticalsensor
Cabling andRF sensor
DETECTION … LOCALIZATION … CHARACTERIZATION … ATTRIBUTION
Objective: Develop sensors, data products, estimation techniques, empirical and coupled physical models to accurately specify and forecast the neutral atmosphere and satellite drag that are used to obtain precision orbit prediction for space objects
Objective: Develop sensors, data products, estimation techniques, empirical and coupled physical models to accurately specify and forecast the neutral atmosphere and satellite drag that are used to obtain precision orbit prediction for space objects
Technology Challenges
• Miniaturized, low-power, capable, reliable autonomous space-based sensors
• Physics-based coupled model development
• Active plasma control technologies
• Space-based neutral-wind monitoring; characterization of appropriate orbital parameters
• Data assimilation and forecasting
Orbital Drag EnvironmentsSpecification and Forecasting
Developing first physics-based model to accurately specify/forecast the satellite drag environment
Developing first physics-based model to accurately specify/forecast the satellite drag environment
Facility for integrating AFRL and related space weather forecast capabilities
Test bed for testing and evaluating space weather forecasting techniques, tools, and models
Focus for transfer of R&D models into operational usage (as per National Space Weather Panel Assessment Committee)
SWFL
SWx Impacts to MissionsSpace Weather Forecast Laboratory
A platform for demonstrating AFRL SWx science and technology for ops A platform for demonstrating AFRL SWx science and technology for ops
Model CouplingSpace Weather Forecast Laboratory
SWFL looking to bridge the gap between CISM and warfighter
SWFL Activities• End-to-end validation
• Tailoring for DoD needs
• Science Applications
• Increasing system TRL
• Product generation
• Scientist “training”
• Supports FLTC 2.6.3 – “Integrated Space Environment”
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Conclusion
• We are in a rapidly emerging state of technology to enable space weather forecasting for current and future DoD systems
• AFRL’s role is to bridge the gap between space weather research and warfighter needs
• Future of space weather (from AF perspective):
– Robust Numerical Space Weather Prediction
– More sensing through small, cheap, lightweight sensors on many satellites
– Direct inclusion of space weather effects in systems and decision aids
AFWA’sSpace WOC
GPS IIR-13launch
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