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Current reality in Norwegian public investment projects
Ole Jonny KlakeggResearch Director
Concept Research Programme
Concept
Conceptwww.concept.ntnu.no
What do we need to invest in?
Source:State of the Nation 2010 (RIF – Association of consulting engineers)
Municipal buildingsHealth buildings
RailwayAirports
State roadsMunicipal roads
Water supplyWaste water
Waste disposalEnergy productionEnergy distribution
SUM:
Current develop-ment
Securing the future
Current state
Value
[Million NOK]
Research into Current Status
• 88 Projects subject to external quality assurance in Norway (2001-2007). Sample includes: + 29 Road and railway projects+ 12 Building projects+ 10 Defence projects= 51 Projects in total (58% of population)
• Do we define and design major public investment projects well?
Ring 3 Ulven-Sinsen
Double track Asker-Sandvika
Leopard 2 tanks
New Opera-house Oslo
Well Defined?
Category A B C D E FCharacterisation
Well defined
No purpose
No effectNo
contentParallel effects
Top heavy
Symbolic representation
Number of projects 15 7 3 2 21 2
Share of projects 29,4% 13,7% 5,9% 3,9% 41,2% 3,9%
No! There is a lack of fundamental logic
Result of analysis: fundamental logic in defining project objectives. N = 51 projects.
Source: O J Klakegg, PhD dissertation 2010
Well Designed?
38
21 20
6
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Achievableoperational goals
Resourcesavailable
One realisticstrategic objective
All uncertaintiesincluded
One realistictactical goal
No! They are not up to best practice
Best practice reference: Logical Framework Approach. The number of projects meeting the best practice criteria. Total of 51 projects evaluated.
Source: O J Klakegg, PhD dissertation 2010
Governance of Projects
• The Norwegian State needs to invest in physical infrastructure
• We have financial ability
• But we struggle to find economically viable projects (few people to share the cost)
• And we struggle to define and design the projects well
How do our projects perform?Objectives achieved No. of Projects Share of Projects
Within cost frame 22 95%
Not significantly beyond approved expected cost 21 91%
Without significant delay 21 91%
Quality as expected 22 95%
Result of 23 major Norwegian public investment projects finished after going through QA2. They reach objectives and deliver within approved frames.
We see a high degree of professionalism in project management in all agencieswith projects in this sample.
Source: Concept Research Programme 2010
Actual cost compared to approved expected cost
Results placed on the timeline according to finishing date of the project.
Average: -4%
The execution perspectiveCategory Assessment (of the project as a whole) No. of
projects
Very successful
All objectives achieved. Appears as specially positive and/or has established new best practice 6
Successful All immediate objectives achieved. Well executed, active management, good handling of communication and conflicts. No significant problems.
12
Average successful
As expected, some objectives are achieved, others not. Partly well executed, but weak on certain points. Moderate problems with limited consequence.
5
Less successful
Most of the immediate objectives are only partly achieved. Management was passive. Major conflicts during execution or after.
0
Not successful
A lot of things has gone wrong, at the start and during execution. The objectives are achieved only to a limited degree.
0
Result of detailed assessmentNo Project Governance Agency plan.
cost. estim.Goal
achievementManagement
organizingProject-control
Contract management
Uncertainty management
1 E6 Skjerdingstad – Jaktøyen
2 E6 Riksgrens. – Svingensk.
3 E6 Klemetsrud – Assurtjern
4 Rv 653 Eiksundsambandet
5 E18 Høvik – Frydenhaug
6 Ringvei Nord, Tønsberg
7 E10 Lofast
8 E18 Kopstad – Gulli
9 Rv 2 Kløfta – Nybakk
10 E6 Åsgård – Halmstad
11 E6 Svingenskogen – Åsgård
12 E18 Momarken – Sekkelsten
13 Dobbeltspor Sandvika-Asker
14 GSM-R samband for jernbanen
15 Nytt operahus
16 Høgskolen i Østfold
17 Nybygg Svalbard forskningsp.
18 Tollområde Svinesund
19 ISL-prosjektet (nybygg FD)
20 FIS Basis
21 GOLF, leveranseprosjekt 1
22 LOS ØP (økonomiprosjektet)
23 NAV-IKT
Roads
Railw
Building
ICT
OKWarning
Stop
Analyses and Reality
Some issues dominate in analyses (based on 75 project analyses). Observations in real life show that reality is more complex (based on 23 finished projects).
Concept Symposium 2010
Highlights of the Symposium
Decision makers, doers and advisors:
Joining forces to enhance utility of investments
• 32 international presenters• 100 participants• By invitation from the
Norwegian Ministry of Finance
Want an invitation? Look at: www.concept.ntnu.no
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