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LACIE-00430 (REVA)
JSC-11343
LARGE AREA CROP INVENTORY EXPERIMENT (LACIE) CROP INVENTORY
0U 0 Nm
tn
I- NASA NOAA USDA 4
WHEATYIELD -MODELSEq FOR THE
= USSR
t~~AUGl 1977 RECEIVED
~NASA
SN)
STI FACILIW CINPUT BRANCH
NationalAeronautics and Space Administration
LYNDON B JOHNSON SPACE CENTER Houston Texas
JUNE 1977
httpsntrsnasagovsearchjspR=19770023630 2018-05-21T144235+0000Z
DOCUMENT
PREPARED BY
NOAA PERSONNEL
CENTER FOR CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
COLUMBIA MISSOURI
TECHNICAL NOTE 77-2
YIELD MODELS FOR THE USSR
MAY 1977
Authorized by for Norton D Strommen
Director CCEA June 10 1977
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors are pleased to recognize the supporting staff
at the Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment for their
assistance in the completion of this project and report Rita Fobian
Rita Terry Jeanne Beare Nancy Beever and Paula Rosenkoetter were
helpful in data analysis drafting typing and editing of the work
contained herein It would have been difficult to complete this
study in the allocated time without them
iii
WHEAT YIELD ESTIMATION MODELS
FOR THE USSR
Clarence M Sakamoto and Sharon K LeDuc
Introduction
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) is the leading
wheat-pioducer in the world However USSR production has been highly
variable primarily because of weather conditions Much of the USSR
wheat is grown under extreme climatic conditions
This study reports on a quantitative model determining the
relationship between weather conditions and wheat yield in the USSR
The purpose of the model is to provide reliable forecasts on the size
of the USSR wheat harvest earlier than do currently available reports
Since wheat is grown in many areas of the USSR under diverse
climatic and cultural conditions separate models were developed for
different geographic locations- The basic geographic-area represented
by a model was a crop region Because of data limitations occasionally
two or more crop regions were combined
Separate models are developed for spring-wheat and for winter shy
the two major wheat classes in the USSR -Differences in yield potential
and responses to stress conditions and cultural improvements necessitate
models for each class
1
2
The basic yield data were obtained from various sources for the
period 1958-1973 (CIA Personal Communication Manellya et al 1972
Economic Research Service USDA Personal Communication) A problem of
unknown scope with USSR statistics is the practice of reporting grain
yields and production in bunker weight - the weight of the grain as it
comes from the combine (Pope et al 1973) That is the data represent
grain containing varying amounts of moisture and foreign matter depending
on weather conditions during harvest Hence some annual variation would
be expected if bunker weight were converted to a standard measure
representing usable grain
The USSR was divided into 33 regions Most of these include
more than one Oblast (Figure 1) Production and acreage information were
available for each Oblast The yield for a region was calculated by
dividing the total production by the total acreage in each region In
some cases only yield data not acreage and production were available
for the latter years particularly for 1972 and 1973 Wheat yield data
for the period 1947-1969 are published (Manellya et al 1972) for
parts of the USSR but corresponding climatic data are not readily
available
The climatological data base 1961-1973 was developed by ETACQ
the Environmental Technical Application Branch of the Air Force For the
period 1961-1965 the meteorological data were extracted by hand from
weather maps The data bases contain the unweighted average of the
observations within a region Since it was desirable to increase the
sample size the data base for the period 1957 through 1961 was estimated
with the use of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) climatological
3
USS R
-- b
00 1412
9 is 20 22
70 it 0-- 26 21 22- I
ie Crprgonscsowigaesoywchhatmdl1 hveen
4
Figure 1 Crop regions showing areas fo r which wheat models have been
developed The hatched-lines within a darkened line area show the inclusion
of more than one crop region in a single model
4
records (USDC ESSA 1966 1967) The data were plotted by computer
and analyzed subjectively for each region through the precipitation
isohyets and temperature isotherms for each month of th years covered
Factors Affecting Wheat Production
The USSR produces approximately one-fourth of the total
world wheat (Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974) Winter wheat is
grown primarily in European USSR while spring wheat is the principal
wheat grown in Asiatic USSR Production of all wheat increased
40 percent from 1959-1964 to 1969-1973 However planted acreage and
harvested acreage has changed little since 1955 (Figure 2) The increased
production is therefore due to an upward trend in yield (Manellya
et al 1972) Approximately 75 percent of the total wheat-sown area
is planted to spring wheat the remainder to winter wheat Figure 2
shows the total area sown to each during the period 1950 through 1973
During those years where winterkill was substantial eg 1960 1969
replanting to spring wheat was evident The variation in harvested
acreage has been associated with the variability in weather (eg 1960
1969 1972) Winterkill and moisture stress are two major weather
hazards that reduce wheat production in the Soviet Union
Since 1949 both spring and winter wheat have shown an upward
yield trend (Figures 3 and 4) Factors contributing to higher yield
include improved varieties increased mechanization greater fertilizer
use irrigation of more acres application of pesticides on more hectares
etc
The bulk of the Russian wheat is harvested from June through
August Winter wheat is usually harvested earlier than spring wheat
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
DOCUMENT
PREPARED BY
NOAA PERSONNEL
CENTER FOR CLIMATIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
COLUMBIA MISSOURI
TECHNICAL NOTE 77-2
YIELD MODELS FOR THE USSR
MAY 1977
Authorized by for Norton D Strommen
Director CCEA June 10 1977
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors are pleased to recognize the supporting staff
at the Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment for their
assistance in the completion of this project and report Rita Fobian
Rita Terry Jeanne Beare Nancy Beever and Paula Rosenkoetter were
helpful in data analysis drafting typing and editing of the work
contained herein It would have been difficult to complete this
study in the allocated time without them
iii
WHEAT YIELD ESTIMATION MODELS
FOR THE USSR
Clarence M Sakamoto and Sharon K LeDuc
Introduction
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) is the leading
wheat-pioducer in the world However USSR production has been highly
variable primarily because of weather conditions Much of the USSR
wheat is grown under extreme climatic conditions
This study reports on a quantitative model determining the
relationship between weather conditions and wheat yield in the USSR
The purpose of the model is to provide reliable forecasts on the size
of the USSR wheat harvest earlier than do currently available reports
Since wheat is grown in many areas of the USSR under diverse
climatic and cultural conditions separate models were developed for
different geographic locations- The basic geographic-area represented
by a model was a crop region Because of data limitations occasionally
two or more crop regions were combined
Separate models are developed for spring-wheat and for winter shy
the two major wheat classes in the USSR -Differences in yield potential
and responses to stress conditions and cultural improvements necessitate
models for each class
1
2
The basic yield data were obtained from various sources for the
period 1958-1973 (CIA Personal Communication Manellya et al 1972
Economic Research Service USDA Personal Communication) A problem of
unknown scope with USSR statistics is the practice of reporting grain
yields and production in bunker weight - the weight of the grain as it
comes from the combine (Pope et al 1973) That is the data represent
grain containing varying amounts of moisture and foreign matter depending
on weather conditions during harvest Hence some annual variation would
be expected if bunker weight were converted to a standard measure
representing usable grain
The USSR was divided into 33 regions Most of these include
more than one Oblast (Figure 1) Production and acreage information were
available for each Oblast The yield for a region was calculated by
dividing the total production by the total acreage in each region In
some cases only yield data not acreage and production were available
for the latter years particularly for 1972 and 1973 Wheat yield data
for the period 1947-1969 are published (Manellya et al 1972) for
parts of the USSR but corresponding climatic data are not readily
available
The climatological data base 1961-1973 was developed by ETACQ
the Environmental Technical Application Branch of the Air Force For the
period 1961-1965 the meteorological data were extracted by hand from
weather maps The data bases contain the unweighted average of the
observations within a region Since it was desirable to increase the
sample size the data base for the period 1957 through 1961 was estimated
with the use of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) climatological
3
USS R
-- b
00 1412
9 is 20 22
70 it 0-- 26 21 22- I
ie Crprgonscsowigaesoywchhatmdl1 hveen
4
Figure 1 Crop regions showing areas fo r which wheat models have been
developed The hatched-lines within a darkened line area show the inclusion
of more than one crop region in a single model
4
records (USDC ESSA 1966 1967) The data were plotted by computer
and analyzed subjectively for each region through the precipitation
isohyets and temperature isotherms for each month of th years covered
Factors Affecting Wheat Production
The USSR produces approximately one-fourth of the total
world wheat (Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974) Winter wheat is
grown primarily in European USSR while spring wheat is the principal
wheat grown in Asiatic USSR Production of all wheat increased
40 percent from 1959-1964 to 1969-1973 However planted acreage and
harvested acreage has changed little since 1955 (Figure 2) The increased
production is therefore due to an upward trend in yield (Manellya
et al 1972) Approximately 75 percent of the total wheat-sown area
is planted to spring wheat the remainder to winter wheat Figure 2
shows the total area sown to each during the period 1950 through 1973
During those years where winterkill was substantial eg 1960 1969
replanting to spring wheat was evident The variation in harvested
acreage has been associated with the variability in weather (eg 1960
1969 1972) Winterkill and moisture stress are two major weather
hazards that reduce wheat production in the Soviet Union
Since 1949 both spring and winter wheat have shown an upward
yield trend (Figures 3 and 4) Factors contributing to higher yield
include improved varieties increased mechanization greater fertilizer
use irrigation of more acres application of pesticides on more hectares
etc
The bulk of the Russian wheat is harvested from June through
August Winter wheat is usually harvested earlier than spring wheat
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors are pleased to recognize the supporting staff
at the Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment for their
assistance in the completion of this project and report Rita Fobian
Rita Terry Jeanne Beare Nancy Beever and Paula Rosenkoetter were
helpful in data analysis drafting typing and editing of the work
contained herein It would have been difficult to complete this
study in the allocated time without them
iii
WHEAT YIELD ESTIMATION MODELS
FOR THE USSR
Clarence M Sakamoto and Sharon K LeDuc
Introduction
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) is the leading
wheat-pioducer in the world However USSR production has been highly
variable primarily because of weather conditions Much of the USSR
wheat is grown under extreme climatic conditions
This study reports on a quantitative model determining the
relationship between weather conditions and wheat yield in the USSR
The purpose of the model is to provide reliable forecasts on the size
of the USSR wheat harvest earlier than do currently available reports
Since wheat is grown in many areas of the USSR under diverse
climatic and cultural conditions separate models were developed for
different geographic locations- The basic geographic-area represented
by a model was a crop region Because of data limitations occasionally
two or more crop regions were combined
Separate models are developed for spring-wheat and for winter shy
the two major wheat classes in the USSR -Differences in yield potential
and responses to stress conditions and cultural improvements necessitate
models for each class
1
2
The basic yield data were obtained from various sources for the
period 1958-1973 (CIA Personal Communication Manellya et al 1972
Economic Research Service USDA Personal Communication) A problem of
unknown scope with USSR statistics is the practice of reporting grain
yields and production in bunker weight - the weight of the grain as it
comes from the combine (Pope et al 1973) That is the data represent
grain containing varying amounts of moisture and foreign matter depending
on weather conditions during harvest Hence some annual variation would
be expected if bunker weight were converted to a standard measure
representing usable grain
The USSR was divided into 33 regions Most of these include
more than one Oblast (Figure 1) Production and acreage information were
available for each Oblast The yield for a region was calculated by
dividing the total production by the total acreage in each region In
some cases only yield data not acreage and production were available
for the latter years particularly for 1972 and 1973 Wheat yield data
for the period 1947-1969 are published (Manellya et al 1972) for
parts of the USSR but corresponding climatic data are not readily
available
The climatological data base 1961-1973 was developed by ETACQ
the Environmental Technical Application Branch of the Air Force For the
period 1961-1965 the meteorological data were extracted by hand from
weather maps The data bases contain the unweighted average of the
observations within a region Since it was desirable to increase the
sample size the data base for the period 1957 through 1961 was estimated
with the use of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) climatological
3
USS R
-- b
00 1412
9 is 20 22
70 it 0-- 26 21 22- I
ie Crprgonscsowigaesoywchhatmdl1 hveen
4
Figure 1 Crop regions showing areas fo r which wheat models have been
developed The hatched-lines within a darkened line area show the inclusion
of more than one crop region in a single model
4
records (USDC ESSA 1966 1967) The data were plotted by computer
and analyzed subjectively for each region through the precipitation
isohyets and temperature isotherms for each month of th years covered
Factors Affecting Wheat Production
The USSR produces approximately one-fourth of the total
world wheat (Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974) Winter wheat is
grown primarily in European USSR while spring wheat is the principal
wheat grown in Asiatic USSR Production of all wheat increased
40 percent from 1959-1964 to 1969-1973 However planted acreage and
harvested acreage has changed little since 1955 (Figure 2) The increased
production is therefore due to an upward trend in yield (Manellya
et al 1972) Approximately 75 percent of the total wheat-sown area
is planted to spring wheat the remainder to winter wheat Figure 2
shows the total area sown to each during the period 1950 through 1973
During those years where winterkill was substantial eg 1960 1969
replanting to spring wheat was evident The variation in harvested
acreage has been associated with the variability in weather (eg 1960
1969 1972) Winterkill and moisture stress are two major weather
hazards that reduce wheat production in the Soviet Union
Since 1949 both spring and winter wheat have shown an upward
yield trend (Figures 3 and 4) Factors contributing to higher yield
include improved varieties increased mechanization greater fertilizer
use irrigation of more acres application of pesticides on more hectares
etc
The bulk of the Russian wheat is harvested from June through
August Winter wheat is usually harvested earlier than spring wheat
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
WHEAT YIELD ESTIMATION MODELS
FOR THE USSR
Clarence M Sakamoto and Sharon K LeDuc
Introduction
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) is the leading
wheat-pioducer in the world However USSR production has been highly
variable primarily because of weather conditions Much of the USSR
wheat is grown under extreme climatic conditions
This study reports on a quantitative model determining the
relationship between weather conditions and wheat yield in the USSR
The purpose of the model is to provide reliable forecasts on the size
of the USSR wheat harvest earlier than do currently available reports
Since wheat is grown in many areas of the USSR under diverse
climatic and cultural conditions separate models were developed for
different geographic locations- The basic geographic-area represented
by a model was a crop region Because of data limitations occasionally
two or more crop regions were combined
Separate models are developed for spring-wheat and for winter shy
the two major wheat classes in the USSR -Differences in yield potential
and responses to stress conditions and cultural improvements necessitate
models for each class
1
2
The basic yield data were obtained from various sources for the
period 1958-1973 (CIA Personal Communication Manellya et al 1972
Economic Research Service USDA Personal Communication) A problem of
unknown scope with USSR statistics is the practice of reporting grain
yields and production in bunker weight - the weight of the grain as it
comes from the combine (Pope et al 1973) That is the data represent
grain containing varying amounts of moisture and foreign matter depending
on weather conditions during harvest Hence some annual variation would
be expected if bunker weight were converted to a standard measure
representing usable grain
The USSR was divided into 33 regions Most of these include
more than one Oblast (Figure 1) Production and acreage information were
available for each Oblast The yield for a region was calculated by
dividing the total production by the total acreage in each region In
some cases only yield data not acreage and production were available
for the latter years particularly for 1972 and 1973 Wheat yield data
for the period 1947-1969 are published (Manellya et al 1972) for
parts of the USSR but corresponding climatic data are not readily
available
The climatological data base 1961-1973 was developed by ETACQ
the Environmental Technical Application Branch of the Air Force For the
period 1961-1965 the meteorological data were extracted by hand from
weather maps The data bases contain the unweighted average of the
observations within a region Since it was desirable to increase the
sample size the data base for the period 1957 through 1961 was estimated
with the use of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) climatological
3
USS R
-- b
00 1412
9 is 20 22
70 it 0-- 26 21 22- I
ie Crprgonscsowigaesoywchhatmdl1 hveen
4
Figure 1 Crop regions showing areas fo r which wheat models have been
developed The hatched-lines within a darkened line area show the inclusion
of more than one crop region in a single model
4
records (USDC ESSA 1966 1967) The data were plotted by computer
and analyzed subjectively for each region through the precipitation
isohyets and temperature isotherms for each month of th years covered
Factors Affecting Wheat Production
The USSR produces approximately one-fourth of the total
world wheat (Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974) Winter wheat is
grown primarily in European USSR while spring wheat is the principal
wheat grown in Asiatic USSR Production of all wheat increased
40 percent from 1959-1964 to 1969-1973 However planted acreage and
harvested acreage has changed little since 1955 (Figure 2) The increased
production is therefore due to an upward trend in yield (Manellya
et al 1972) Approximately 75 percent of the total wheat-sown area
is planted to spring wheat the remainder to winter wheat Figure 2
shows the total area sown to each during the period 1950 through 1973
During those years where winterkill was substantial eg 1960 1969
replanting to spring wheat was evident The variation in harvested
acreage has been associated with the variability in weather (eg 1960
1969 1972) Winterkill and moisture stress are two major weather
hazards that reduce wheat production in the Soviet Union
Since 1949 both spring and winter wheat have shown an upward
yield trend (Figures 3 and 4) Factors contributing to higher yield
include improved varieties increased mechanization greater fertilizer
use irrigation of more acres application of pesticides on more hectares
etc
The bulk of the Russian wheat is harvested from June through
August Winter wheat is usually harvested earlier than spring wheat
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
2
The basic yield data were obtained from various sources for the
period 1958-1973 (CIA Personal Communication Manellya et al 1972
Economic Research Service USDA Personal Communication) A problem of
unknown scope with USSR statistics is the practice of reporting grain
yields and production in bunker weight - the weight of the grain as it
comes from the combine (Pope et al 1973) That is the data represent
grain containing varying amounts of moisture and foreign matter depending
on weather conditions during harvest Hence some annual variation would
be expected if bunker weight were converted to a standard measure
representing usable grain
The USSR was divided into 33 regions Most of these include
more than one Oblast (Figure 1) Production and acreage information were
available for each Oblast The yield for a region was calculated by
dividing the total production by the total acreage in each region In
some cases only yield data not acreage and production were available
for the latter years particularly for 1972 and 1973 Wheat yield data
for the period 1947-1969 are published (Manellya et al 1972) for
parts of the USSR but corresponding climatic data are not readily
available
The climatological data base 1961-1973 was developed by ETACQ
the Environmental Technical Application Branch of the Air Force For the
period 1961-1965 the meteorological data were extracted by hand from
weather maps The data bases contain the unweighted average of the
observations within a region Since it was desirable to increase the
sample size the data base for the period 1957 through 1961 was estimated
with the use of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) climatological
3
USS R
-- b
00 1412
9 is 20 22
70 it 0-- 26 21 22- I
ie Crprgonscsowigaesoywchhatmdl1 hveen
4
Figure 1 Crop regions showing areas fo r which wheat models have been
developed The hatched-lines within a darkened line area show the inclusion
of more than one crop region in a single model
4
records (USDC ESSA 1966 1967) The data were plotted by computer
and analyzed subjectively for each region through the precipitation
isohyets and temperature isotherms for each month of th years covered
Factors Affecting Wheat Production
The USSR produces approximately one-fourth of the total
world wheat (Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974) Winter wheat is
grown primarily in European USSR while spring wheat is the principal
wheat grown in Asiatic USSR Production of all wheat increased
40 percent from 1959-1964 to 1969-1973 However planted acreage and
harvested acreage has changed little since 1955 (Figure 2) The increased
production is therefore due to an upward trend in yield (Manellya
et al 1972) Approximately 75 percent of the total wheat-sown area
is planted to spring wheat the remainder to winter wheat Figure 2
shows the total area sown to each during the period 1950 through 1973
During those years where winterkill was substantial eg 1960 1969
replanting to spring wheat was evident The variation in harvested
acreage has been associated with the variability in weather (eg 1960
1969 1972) Winterkill and moisture stress are two major weather
hazards that reduce wheat production in the Soviet Union
Since 1949 both spring and winter wheat have shown an upward
yield trend (Figures 3 and 4) Factors contributing to higher yield
include improved varieties increased mechanization greater fertilizer
use irrigation of more acres application of pesticides on more hectares
etc
The bulk of the Russian wheat is harvested from June through
August Winter wheat is usually harvested earlier than spring wheat
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
3
USS R
-- b
00 1412
9 is 20 22
70 it 0-- 26 21 22- I
ie Crprgonscsowigaesoywchhatmdl1 hveen
4
Figure 1 Crop regions showing areas fo r which wheat models have been
developed The hatched-lines within a darkened line area show the inclusion
of more than one crop region in a single model
4
records (USDC ESSA 1966 1967) The data were plotted by computer
and analyzed subjectively for each region through the precipitation
isohyets and temperature isotherms for each month of th years covered
Factors Affecting Wheat Production
The USSR produces approximately one-fourth of the total
world wheat (Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974) Winter wheat is
grown primarily in European USSR while spring wheat is the principal
wheat grown in Asiatic USSR Production of all wheat increased
40 percent from 1959-1964 to 1969-1973 However planted acreage and
harvested acreage has changed little since 1955 (Figure 2) The increased
production is therefore due to an upward trend in yield (Manellya
et al 1972) Approximately 75 percent of the total wheat-sown area
is planted to spring wheat the remainder to winter wheat Figure 2
shows the total area sown to each during the period 1950 through 1973
During those years where winterkill was substantial eg 1960 1969
replanting to spring wheat was evident The variation in harvested
acreage has been associated with the variability in weather (eg 1960
1969 1972) Winterkill and moisture stress are two major weather
hazards that reduce wheat production in the Soviet Union
Since 1949 both spring and winter wheat have shown an upward
yield trend (Figures 3 and 4) Factors contributing to higher yield
include improved varieties increased mechanization greater fertilizer
use irrigation of more acres application of pesticides on more hectares
etc
The bulk of the Russian wheat is harvested from June through
August Winter wheat is usually harvested earlier than spring wheat
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
4
records (USDC ESSA 1966 1967) The data were plotted by computer
and analyzed subjectively for each region through the precipitation
isohyets and temperature isotherms for each month of th years covered
Factors Affecting Wheat Production
The USSR produces approximately one-fourth of the total
world wheat (Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974) Winter wheat is
grown primarily in European USSR while spring wheat is the principal
wheat grown in Asiatic USSR Production of all wheat increased
40 percent from 1959-1964 to 1969-1973 However planted acreage and
harvested acreage has changed little since 1955 (Figure 2) The increased
production is therefore due to an upward trend in yield (Manellya
et al 1972) Approximately 75 percent of the total wheat-sown area
is planted to spring wheat the remainder to winter wheat Figure 2
shows the total area sown to each during the period 1950 through 1973
During those years where winterkill was substantial eg 1960 1969
replanting to spring wheat was evident The variation in harvested
acreage has been associated with the variability in weather (eg 1960
1969 1972) Winterkill and moisture stress are two major weather
hazards that reduce wheat production in the Soviet Union
Since 1949 both spring and winter wheat have shown an upward
yield trend (Figures 3 and 4) Factors contributing to higher yield
include improved varieties increased mechanization greater fertilizer
use irrigation of more acres application of pesticides on more hectares
etc
The bulk of the Russian wheat is harvested from June through
August Winter wheat is usually harvested earlier than spring wheat
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
USSR
5
WHEAT
PRODUCTION
~Total
100
1-4
80
so
60
02
1950 55 60 65 70 73
-AREA SOWN
20 0
950 0190 5-5 60 65 0 73
Eigure 2 March of production and spring and winter wheat sown area in the USSR from 1950-1973 (source CIA 1974)
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
15
6
RSFSR SPRING WHEAT YIELDS
i II Iiii
dii10
5shy
0
1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968
Year
Figure 3 Spring wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya at al 1972)
1972
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
7
RSFSR WINTER WHEAT YIELDS
25
20
IC
U
15
5
1964 19681948 1952 1956 1960
Year
Figure 4 Winter wheat yield in the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic (RSFSR) 1949-1972 (data Manellya et al 1972)
1972
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
8
The wheat-growing area in the USSR covers a wide range of
climate The distance between the northern and southern latitudes spans
over a thousand miles Other features such as mountains and distance
from oceans vary widely Consequently each region has unique perennial
weather-related problems that affect wheat yield For example regions
close to the Black Sea 6 7 and 9 are influenced by the moderating
effect of the waters which can lead to wheat rust problems In
Regions 13 and 14 excessive moisture during spring is a major concern
In Kazakhstan and regions north and east of the Caspian Sea drought
and sukhovei (a hot dry wind) onset are perennial yield reducing
problems East of the Ural Mountains in Regions 20 26 and 27 excessive
spring rains affect planting and fall frosts affect the ripening of grain
The time of moisture stress relative to the growth stage
affects the degree of yield reduction If moisture stress is experienced
at the heading through flowering phase and the filling phase yield is
reduced substantially Yield is also reduced when stress occurs during
earlier growth stages but reduction is not as great as when stress
occurs during the heading period (Bauer 1972 Panomarev 1962)
High temperature can also be detrimental to wheat production
Temperatures above 32C (90F) can hurt wheat crop yield during critical
periods such as flowering (Jensen and Lund 1971 Kogan 1966 Panomarev
-1962) Low temperatures affect the wheat plant differently depending on
the growth stage and variety Areas with a continental climate
particularly in European USSR have the highest probability of low
temperature damage A combination of poor snow cover low humidity
and strong winds can cause extensive damage For example as much as
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
9
35 percent of the fall-sown winter grains was estimated to have been
winterkilled in 1969 (CIA 1974) The Soviets have suggested that snow
-cover should be at-least 30 cmlin European USSR and 40 cm in Asiatic
USSR to provide protection from the temperature hazards of winter
(CIA 1974) Winter wheat can withstand a temperature of -400C (-400 F)
if the crop is hardened prior to the low temperature and protected by
the snow cover Without a snow cover the same crop could withstand
temperatures as low as -320C (-250F) (Martin and Leonard 1949) Martin
and Leonard also indicate that spring wheat can withstand temperatures as
low as -90c (150F) However temperatures a degree or two-below freezing
during the period from heading through grain development can reduce yield
substantially The extent to which yield is affected depends upon the
duration of the low temperature as well as the variety of wheat
A phenomenon which can also reduce wheat yield in a short
period of time from a few hours to a few days is the sukhovei - hot dry
winds that occur most frequently in the southern and southeastern sections
of European USSR in Kazakhstan east of the Volga and in Western
Siberia On a sukhovei day the relative humidity-frequently drops below
30 percent evapotranspiration increases to a point where the plant even
wilts although moisture is present in the soil The relative humidity
at night during a sukhovei is sometimes lower than during a drought (Borisov
1959) The frequency of the sukhovei resembles a drought frequency chart
in scope as well as in percentage (Figure 5 after Alpatev in Vitkevich 1960)
Most of the precipitation in the USSR falls during the months
of April through September (Figure 6) In the northern Belorussia and
Central Regions the maximum occurs late in July and August which hampers
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
10
32 40 4 56 64
6 =C
60
ouht DFigre req eny Cartin heUSSR (o uretik vc16)
FF 4 te so
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
9O 40 t0 0 100 IKO 140 toO I0
5 o r~mo c50-ro
rit
of pecipiationin th pimto mlmth ApilSDistrbutio warm of yer e
Figure 6 Average precipitation during the warm period April through September
(source10orisov1959)
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
12
harvesting operations Also in these areas low temperatures and frost
can reduce yield substantially (Jakovlev 1973)
Although rainfall during a critical period is beneficial
excessive rainfall can have a depressing effect on yield Bogdanov (1965)
for example found that for spring wheat excessive rainfall from the
period following flowering-to waxy ripe or hard dough stage reduced yield
in the central non-Chernozem region In this report these areas include
Regions 11 and 12 of Figure 1 Jakovlev (1973) also reported that in
northern Kazakhstan high yields were characterized by above normal
May-July rainfall (1757185 mm) with temperatures below 200C in July
Winter wheat productivity is affected not only by spring and
summer weather but also by precipitation during the preceding fall and
winter which adds to the soil moisture reserve and supplements the
spring and summer rainfall If the soil moisture reserve is low and May
precipitation is less than12 mm in the Steppe Regions of Ukraine and
Northern Caucasus winter wheat yield will be low (Ulanova 1966) Yields
may also be lowered if May precipitation is excessive (more than 80 mm)
However if soil moisture reserve is low high yields are possible if May
precipitation is high
The Regression Models
A mathematical model was developed for each_region regressing
wheat yield against a time variable as a surrogate for factors affecting
yield trend and a set of weather variables measuring the influence of
weather The basic general model for a particularregion which may include
several subregions is n
Y =a + OT + EkWik ii h k=lr - i
where
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
13
i = year
j = subregion j 1 2 m and m differs with models
k = weather variable k = 1 n and n differs with models
Yj estimated yield for the ith year and jth subregion
aj = donstant for the Jth subregion
=coefficient for trend T
T= trend for ith year (1958=1 1959=2 1973=16)
Yjk = coefficient for kth weather variable Wijk where
These are the aridity index temperature anomaly andor
precipitation anomaly or the square of one of these variables
(these weather variables are based on monthly data only) The
kth weather variable is not the same function for each model
n = the number of distinct weather variables and will vary by region
Eij = unexplained variation of the ith year and jth subregion
In most cases a linear trend is included in the model but where
a time variable failed to improve the predictive equation the coefficient
a was then assumed to be zero
The Weather Variables
The basic weather data consisting of monthly temperature and
monthly precipitation are used to derive monthly weather variables
consisting of an aridity indexi- a monthly temperature departure from
normal and a monthly precipitation departure from normal The aridity
index also expressed as the departure from normal where normal is the
average value (usually 1958-1973) is defined as monthly precipitation minus
potential evapotranspiration (PET) Thornthwaites procedure (Palmer
and Havens 1958 Thornthwaite 1948) for estimating potential evapotransshy
piration is utilized The formula for PET is
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
14
160 10 (T)mIlaPET =
where PET = monthly potential evapotranspiration in millimeters for
the month m
(T)m = monthly mean temperature ( C) for month m 12
=I heat index = E hm mn=l
and hm = 1514
for m7i (January)through m712 (December)
-a = 675 x 10-7I 3 - 771 x 10-5I 2 + 179 x 10 2 + 049
Expressions for a and h were determined empirically by Thornthwaite (1948)
I is a heat index which is a constant for a given location Daylight
corrections are applied as a fraction of 12 hours
In some cases the departure of the observed precipitation Pm
from the average precipitation Pm was used in lieu of the aridity index
In most cases the first weather variable to enter the model is typically
the accumulated preseason moisture generally from September through
March of the growing season
The monthly temperature departure from normal is defined as
T - T where T is the observed temperature and T is the averagem m - m _
temperature over the data period for month m The data period was
generally 1958-1973
Estimates of wneat yield are desired as early in the season as
possible Hence truncated models were developed using as much weather
data as is available at the truncated period For example a truncated
winter wheat model for March used weather coefficients through the month
of March
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
15
Selection of Weather Variables
In selecting the final model for a region the four basic
guidelines used were
1 The coefficient signs are agronomically feasible
2 The standard error is reduced with each truncation
3 The variable selected in the initial truncation is maintained
for subsequent truncation
4 The final model explains as much of the yield variability
as possible
The selection of weather variables usually began with determining
a preseason variable such as total precipitation from September through
April (preseason moisture) for spring wheat The months included for
preseason moisture varied with regions (eg September through March
or November through March) In some areas such as the Kazakhstan regions
preseason accumulated precipitation failed to show any statistical
importance This is probably-due to the relative dryness of the arid and
semi-arid zone where rainfall prior to planting has evaporated and is not
available in the subsoil for later use
In the winter wheat areaswinter temperatures are important to
the winterkill problem This leads to the problem of determining what
constitutes -thewinter months For example in those regions in-the
European USSR near the Bl ackSea--the winter-months include January
and February for the assessment of winter temperature Farther to the
interior of the USSR these months include November or December through
March Different months were tested to determine the best fit of a winter
temperature variable to yield
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
16
The aridity index value precipitation minus PET which
combines both temperature and precipitation was generally tried first
for the spring months In some cases where this aridity index failed to
show its significance precipitation was included for analysis The
inclusion of only precipitation for the spring and summer months indicates
that this variable was abetter indicator of yield response than the
aridity index
April temperature was often important in wheat growing areas
Generally speaking higher temperature is associated with the enhancement
of regrowth of the winter wheat and the establishment of spring wheat
Where the spring temperature shows a negative coefficient (eg Region
13) this can be interpreted-to mean that too early a warming period
during April will enhance vegetative growth at the expense of grain
development in winter wheat
In some cases the introduction of a vaiiable increased the standard
error of estimate slightly but this variable was maintained if it was
determined to be agronomically reasonable and the addition of another
variable for the subsequent truncation period increased the fit of the
data to the model This would not have occurred if the variable in the
previous truncation period had been removed
The description of each model is included in the Appendix A
list of all models for specified regions is also attached The darkened
outline for an area indicates a particular model which may include
more than one region If more than one region is included in a model
this is noted by hatched lines (see Figure 1)
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
17
-Summary
The models for the USSR have been developed with limited
meteorological and yield data
It is suggested that those using these models apply a flagging
system to detect extreme temperatures andor precipitation A suggested
flagging system might include flagging precipitation values greater than
the 90th percentile andor less than the 10th percentile temperature
values greater than the 95th percentile andor less than the-5th
percentile might also be flagged In these instances the value for the
10th or 90th percentile for precipitation or the 5th or 95th
percentile for temperaturemight be used in lieu of the extreme value
Furthermore it is suggested that yield results less than zero be
assumed to be zero
Additional years should help to stabilize the coefficients
involved in the equation The extension of the time trend three years
into the future is dangerous because of the size of the coefficient and
the potential instability
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
REFERENCES
Australia Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1974 Wheat Situation
and Outlook Canberra
Bauer A 1972 Effect of Water Supply and Seasonal Distribution on
Spring Wheat Yields Bulletin 490 North Dakota Agricultural
Experiment Station Fargo
Bogdanov T F 1965 The Dependence of the Spring Wheat Yield on the
Amount of Precipitation in the Central Non-Chernozem Zojie
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 746-48 (in Russian)
Borisov A A 1959 Climates of the USSR ed by G A Halstead
trans by R A Ledward Chicago Aldine
Central Intelligence Agency 1974 USSR Agriculture Atlas
Washington December
Jakovlev N N 1973 Agrometeorological Factors Influencing Spring
Wheat Yield and Grain Quality in the Soviet Socialist Republics
Plant Response to Climatic Factors Proceedings of the Uppsala
Symposium ed by R 0 Slayter Paris UNESCO
Jensen 1 A and H R Lund 1971 How Cereal Crops Grow
Extension Bulletin Number 3 North Dakota State University Fargo
Kogan F N 1966 Estimate of the Summer Wheat Yield by Meteorological
Data in Regions with a Clearly Continental Climate Meteorologiya
i Gidrologiya 10 14-18 (in Russian)
Manellya A I N N Nagnibelova A A Frenkel and L I Vashchukov
1972 Dinamika Urozhaynosti Selskokhozyaystvennykh Kultur v RSFSR
(Dynamics of Agricultural Crop Yields in the RSFSR) Moscow
Statistika
18
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
19
Martin J F and W H Leonard 1949 Principles of Field Crop
Production New York McMillan
Palmer W C and A V Havens 1958 A Graphical Technique for
Determining Fvapotranspiration by the Thornthwaite Method
Monthly Weather Review
Panomarev B P 1962 An Appraisal of Agro-Meteorological Conditions
of Spring Wheat Production in the Steppe and Forest-Steppe
Zones of the RFSFR Transactions Tsentr Institute Prognozov
1013-24 (in Russian)
Pope Fletcher Jr V Zabijaka and W Ragsdale 1973 Agriculture
in the United States and the Soviet Union FAS Report Number 92
Washington US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Thornthwaite C W 1948 An Approach Toward a Pational Classification of
Climate Geographical Review 3855-94
Ulanova E S 1966 The Effect of May Precipitation on Yields of Tinter
Wheatin the Steppe Regions of the Ukraine and Northern Caucasus
Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya 517-25
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1966 World Weather Records Vol 2 Europe Washington
US Department of Commerce Environmental Science Services Administration
1967 World Weather Records Vol 4 Asia Washington
Vitkevich V 1 1960 Agricultural Meteorology Jerusalem Israel
Program for Scientific Translation
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
APPENDIX
USSR WINTER WHEAT MODELS
TranscaucasusBaltics-Belorussia
1 Baltics 2 Belorussia
North Ukraine
3 West Ukraine 4 North Central Ukraine 5 Northeast Ukraine
Ukraine-Krasnodar
6 Eastern Ukraine 7 Southern Ukraine 9 Krasnodar
Moldavia
8 Moldavia
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Black Soil Zone
11 West Black Soil Zone 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central District
13 Central Region
Volga-Vyatsk
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Upper Volga
15 Upper Volga
Middle Volga
16 Middle Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwest Urals
A-1
28 Transcaucasus
South Kazakhstan
29 South Kazakhstan
Central Asia
30 Central Asia
Northwest
33 Northwest
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
APPENDIX
USSR SPRING WHEAT MODELS
Black Soil Zone South Kazakhstan
11 WestBlack Soil Zone 29 South Kazakhstan 12 East Black Soil Zone
Central Asia Central District
30 Central Asia 13 Central Region
Eastern Siberia Volga-Vyatsk 31 Eastern Siberia
14 Volga-Vyatsk
Far East Upper Volga
32 Far East
15 Upper Volga Northwest
Middle Volga 33 Northwest
16 Middle Volga
Caucasus-Volga
10 Northeast Caucasus 17 Lower Volga
Northwest Urals
18 Northwestern Urals
Southern Urals-Western Kazakhstan
19 Southern Urals 21 Western Kazakhstan
Northeastern Urals
20 Northeastern Urals
Northeast Kazakh
22 Kustanay 23 Tselinograd 24 Northern Kazakhstan 25 Pavlodar
Siberia-Altai
26 Western Siberia 27 Altai Krai
A-2
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
BALTICS-BELORUSSIA WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Baltics - Crop Region I
Belorussia - Crop Region 2
PET A = 946 April Daylength = 11674 Latitude = 55degN PET I = 27816 May Daylength = 13374
June Daylength = 14254
Crop Region 1 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 1 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant 100 433592 456263 488144 482387 479744 Region 1 Constant 100 281226 234473 220686 237189 242756 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 110882 110965 108025 107731 107715 Dec-Mar Avg Temp (0C) DFN -411 054305 063471 069105 068059 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DFamp 223 003842 003889 004869 May Prec - PET (mm) DFI -3164 -002818 -002756 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5621 002180
R Squared 081682 085246 086025 086928 087596 Standard Error (QHa) 263715 240863 238720 235275 233725 Standard Variance (QHa) 695458 580150 569874 553542 546273
Standard Deviation of Yields = 595955 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 1 and 2 =DFNSquared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973
Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
NORTH UKRAINE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Ukraine - Crop Region 3 North Central Ukraine - Crop Region 4 Northeast Ukraine - Crop Region 5
PET A = 1030 PET I = 33428
April Daylength = 11393 May Daylength 12773 June Daylength = 13460
Latitude = 50ON
Crop Region 3 Constant Crop Region 4 Constant
= 1 if Data from Crop Region 3 Otherwise 0 = 1 if Data from Crop Region 4 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Region 3 Constant Region 4 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Dec-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mnn) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DEN SDFN DEN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100 100
1600 28765 -296 -296 -698
-3672 -3672 -5252 -5252
1402232 -112029 041235 090861
1703209 -401435 -134084 084046 000779 131408
-023401
1691113 -456768 -139607 085960 000595 138943
-019124 003334
1767622 -532192 -150568 083308 000476 132271
-014792 004418 002763
-000046
1926082 -673875 -153973 074242 000371 111158
-009266 001664 004871
-000063 003712
-000028
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
058101 375913
1413103
079652 271383 736489
080477 269128 724300
082606 260628 679269
084547 252388 636995
Standard Deviation of Yields = 561906 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled over Crop Regions 3 4 and 5 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
UKRAINE-KRASNODAR WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Eastern Ukraine - Crop Region 6 Southern Ukraine - Crop Region 7 Krasnodar - Crop Region 9
PET A 1206 April Daylength = 11251 Latitude = 47degN PET I 45130
Crop Region 6 Constant = I if Data from Crop Region 6 Otherwise 0 Crop Region 7 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 7 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April
Overall Constant Region 6 Constant Region 7 Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Jan-Feb Temp (degC) Sep-Mar Prec (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 100 100
1500 -231 -231 30267 -1128
2208902 -606706 -533688 056707
1813271 -182993 -469991 092905 126688
-006415
1784735 -106709 -345187 087673 115271
-006032 001385
1703027 -080185 -316404 095955 121937
-006372 001332 003454
R Squared Standard Error (QHa)
046541 409730
076945 275885
079243 265198
080735 258917
Standard Variance (QHa) 1678789 761124 703298 670382
Standard Deviation of Yields = 540947 QhHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields and Climatic data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 6 7 and 9 Yields Based on 1958-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
MOLDAVIA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Moldavia - Crop Region 8
PET A PET I
1186 43795
March Daylength = 9808 April Daylength - 11251
Latitude 47 N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April June July
Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) Mar Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (0C) Jul Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1600 -226 2081
-1421 1886 6063
1049481 120124
909938 136541 125431
833258 145563 120052
-006288
738836 156671 125488
-007146 006763
697522 161532 084182
-014263 006089
-223464
465335 188847 084113
-010165 008502
-139325 -007373
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
050283 588632
3464873
063447 523781
2743462
066253 523821 2743881
071022 506981
2570300
076977 473951
2246297
080253 462680
2140732
Standard Deviation of Yields = 806514 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA WINTER WHfEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeast Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1184 May Dayiength = 12573 Latitude = 480 N PET I = 43641
Crop Region 10 Constant 1 if Data from Crop Region 10 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant Region 10 Constant Sep-Mar Pree (mm) Nov-Mar Temp (0C) Nov-Mar Temp (degC) Apr Temp (C)
Apr Temp (00) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN
100 100
23375 -298 -298 917 917
-5703 -5703
1435914 135574
1663994 -247534 002834 112799 -006090
1677922 -255532 002759 092628
-009846 050509 003074
1816074 -252471 002877 074880
-010528 061397
-006899 005800
-000141
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
002583 432000
1866241
052925 319291
1019468
056642 320685
1028391
070205 279479 781085
Standard Deviation of Yields = 429508 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 10 and 17 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE WINTER WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 May Daylength = 12880 Latitude = 510N PET I = 32810
Crop Region 12 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 12 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Trend February March April May
Overall Constant 100 1263277 972778 1039611 1110661 1100843 Region 12 Constant 100 065617 180616 168806 185011 176580 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 047866 078932 070808 063560 064652 Jan-Feb Temp (oC) DFN -776 084960 064729 036669 032586 Mar Temp (degC) DFN -314 032550 070083 067848 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 3600 003461 003232 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 360 000262 000274
to Apr Temp (0Q) SDFN 660 -017461 -016711 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -4395 001999
R Squared 022628 K 062085 063946 075049 077045 Standard Error (QHa) 383018 273651 272588 243180 239308 Standard Variance (QHa) 1467027 748847 743044 591366 572683
Standard Deviation of Yields = 419001 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
CENTRAL DISTRICT WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
PET A = 937 May Daylength - 13517 Latitude = 56ON PET I = 27226
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May
Overall Constant 100 698680 661694 743347 808181 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 065394 069745 067756 062374 Dec-Mar Temp (OC) DFN -735 035037 033625 025120 Apr Temp (0) SDFN 531 -018615 -024105 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3604 003500
R Squared 071230 077284 082751 086092 Standard Error (QHa) 204810 188861 171292 160651 Standard Variance (QHa) 419473 356687 293409 258087
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368892 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 560N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Temp (OC) Apr Temp (Oc) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm)
DIN SDFN DFN DEN SDFN
100 1600 381 381
-3941 -5599 -5599
870076 040203
991247 042958
018745 -027819
1042161 031702 036502
-019206 005659
1092689 025930 050192
-002053 006963 006491 -000118
L R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
035399 267641 716317
057413 234717 550921
072518 196935 387834
083989 166181 276161
Standard Deviation of Yields = 321701 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1973 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 May Daylength = 13240 Latitude =540N PET I = 29088 June Daylength = 14074
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June
Overall Constant 100 868658 lb09648 1031692 Linear Tread (1958-1971) 1200 064203 070462 064266 Apr Temp ( C) DFN 381 031508 032207 Apr Temp (degC) SDFN 381 -042804 -037505 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6626 004861
R Squared 044277 075727 084134 Standard Error (QHa) 290232 209838 178825 Standard Variance (QHa) 842344 440319 319785
Standard Deviation of Yields = 373550 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 May Daylength = 12994 Latitude 52degN PET I = 35238
Variable Deviation Normal April may
Overall Constant 100 1620480 1654855 Apr Temp (0C) DFN 623 096544 172873 Apr Temp (0C) SDFN 623 -039161 -046741 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5929 016253
R Squared 033013 080749 Standard Error (QHa) 398903 224280 Standard Variance (QHa) 1591238 503017
Standard Deviation of Yields = 448328 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 PET I = 23120
May Daylength = 13834 June Daylength = 14885 July Daylength = 14247
Latitude = 580N
Variable Deviation Normal March April May June July
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN DEN SDFN DEN
100 -1168 -1168
287 -4475 -6152 -6152 -6047
1135794 007397
-020443
1207928 021037
-032667 055667
1163479 025064
-022040 067742 003711
1201433 034808
-017960 083435 004858
-000761 -000064
1200717 034215
-014958 093487 005975
-000407 -000091 -001758
R Squared
Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
029633 197784 391186
050815 175387 307605
069021 148802 221420
078888 145348 211260
082644 147342 217097
Standard Deviation of Yields = 213270 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1969 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
TRANSCAUCASUS WINT-R WHEAT MODEL
Transcaucasus - Crop Region 28
PET A = 1441 June Daylength = 12463 Latitude = 410N PET I = 60315
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 713531 748573 757169 764755 Linear Trend (1958-1974) 1700 047916 048970 046731 047485 Apr Prec (mm) DFN 2682 -002195 -002818 -003459 Apt Prec (mm) SDFN 2682 -000340 -000252 -000208 May Temp (0C) DFN 1819 -031632 -005342 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -10697 002749 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -10697 -000063
R Squared 076412 080493 081955 087758 Standard Error (QHa) 138844 135629 135774 122506 Standard Variance (QHa) 192776 183951 184345 150077
Standard Deviation of Yields = 276801 QHa
DEN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET I = 1365 May Daylength = 12066 Latitude = 420N PET A = 55497
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June
Overall Constant Dec-Mar Temp (C) Apr Temp (0C) Apr Temp (C) May Pree - ThET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (degC)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN SDN DFN
100 044
1286 1286
-4462 -4462 2321
1045508 1045508 020381
1070239 016862
-062323 -012794
1199482 010457
-016378 -008628 006023 -000121
1188507 015290
-021217 -006721 005791
-000115 -047889
R Squared Standard Error (QKa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 300576 903459
002432 306636 940255
014520 308301 950495
065295 213556 456060
066878 218812 478788
Standard Deviation of Yields = 300576 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1974 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1957-1974 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIAWINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = 1421 PET I = 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength = 11921
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March April May June
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1974) Nov-Mar Pree (m) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Temp (oC)
DFN DFN DFN DFN
100 1700
24171 2417
-5230 2415
566360 029145
520955 034190 001265
526420 033583 001185 000771
553685 030553 000623 000129 001897
542305 031818 000739 000123 001828
-015456
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
055286 136695 186856
067740 120184 144441
069627 121019 146456
075215 113784 129467
075529 118088 139448
Standard Deviation of Yields = 197934 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = PET I =
891 24247
May Daylength June Daylength JulyDaylength
13834 14885 14247
Latitude = 58degN
Variable Deviation Normal Trend March May June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1971) Sep-liar Prec (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (nu)
DEN DFN DEN DFN
100 1400 28171 -3118 -6383 -6154
825618 032679
807855 034996 -000462
802580 035804 -000359 -000764
817219 033897
-000303 -000919 -000529
815096 036044 000953
-001702 -001552 -004188
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
059864 121037 146500
060864 125354 157136
062479 129380 167393
063189 135924 184753
086430 088224 077834
Standard Deviation of Yields = 182919 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1965 and 1967-1971 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
CAUCASUS-VOLGA SPRING WIEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Northeastern Caucasus - Crop Region 10 Lower Volga - Crop Region 17
PET A = 1193 May Daylength 12573 Latitude =48N PET I = 44247 July Daylength = 12826
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 933175 926464 897282 894580 919142 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Sep-Apr Prec (mm) Apr Mean Temp (oC) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mn) Jul Prec - PET (mm)
DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN SDFN
26157 26157
936 -5792 -5792 4647
-11428 -11428
002714 000002 010724
002454 000010 041367 007652
-000016
002924 000014 038757 008253
-000034 -002531
003112 000018 030637 007940
-000008 -000874 -001664 -000089
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 338297
1144451
031240 296263 877718
059491 236683 560186
060645 238304 567888
067168 227791 518885
Standard Deviation of Yields = 338297 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Regions 10 and 17 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
BLACK SOIL ZONE SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 11 East Black Soil Zone - Crop Region 12
PET A = 1021 June Daylength = 13600 Latitude 51ON PET I = 32810 July Daylength = 13170
Variable Deviation Normal Trend Februar May June July
Overall Constant 100 695206 754990 786415 901441 735854 660397 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 080050 072078 067888 066978 076547 085523 Jan-Feb Avg Temp (0C) DFN -776 -021800 -025891 -042134 -039183 -047549 Apr Mean Temp (0O) DFN 660 024151 019529 028549 025310 May Prec (mm) DFN 4661 007030 006518 009128 May Prec (mm) SDFN 4661 -000242 -000167 -000183 Jun Prec PET (mm) DFN -6240 001118 001017 Jun Frec - PET (mm) SDFN -6240 000059 000074 Jul Frec - PET (mm) DFN -7754 -002477
R Squared 067730 070732 072231 083343 087270 088660 Standard Error (QHa) 231145 224490 223174 180531 165525 160285 Standard Variance (QHa) 534280 503958 498066 325915 273985 256914
Standard Deviation of Yields = 399291 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 11 and 12 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
ENTIHAL DISTRICT SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central District - Crop Region 13
Latitude - 560N
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 440233 519195 578767 553506 Linear Trend (1958-1973) Apr Mean Temp (0C) Apr Mean Temp (0C)
DFN SDFN
1600 531 531
074424 072646 -004278 -018358
068813 010158
-013446
079917 002698
-013102 Jun Pree (mm) DFN 6306 003033 002720 Jun Prec (mm) SDFN 6306 -000075 -000079 Aug Prec (mm) DrN 6313 004753 Aug Prec (mm) SDFN 6313 -000180
R Squared 074121 078510 081250 088586 Standard Error (QHa) 216720 213312 218268 190394 Standard Variance (QHa) 469674 455020 476409 362500
Standard Deviation of Yields = 411566 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
VOLGA-VYATSK SPRING WHEAT MODEL
itegion
Volga-Vyatsk - Crop Region 14
PET A = 914 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude 56 N PET I = 25737 June Daylength = 14448
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 480093 266753 367734 405194 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 061530 086628 082821 080001 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 31744 -002538 -002706 -002086 May Prec - PET (mm) DFN -3941 002670 002393 May Pree -PET (mm) SDFN -3941 -000119 -000125 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -5599 002452 Jun Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -5599 -000013
R Squared 063230 070384 079482 081666 Standard Error (QHa) 231232 215357 194864 203646
Standard Variance (QHa) 534684 463785 379718 414717
Standard Deviation of Yields = 368399 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
- May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
UPPER VOLGA SPRMM WHEAT MODEL
Region
Upper Volga - Crop Region 15
PET A = 965 July Daylength = 13573 Latitude = 540N =rET I 29088
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April July
Overall Constant 100 731689 537479 641439 Linear Trend (1958-1971) 1400 067783 093677 073847 Sep-Apr Prec (mm) DFN 28350 -002527 -002242 Jul Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7923 005480 Jul Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -7923 000097
R Squared 070224 082836 091394 Standard Error (QHa) 192183 152398 119300 Standard Variance (QHa) 369342 232253 142324
Standard Deviationof Yields = 338375 QHa DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971
SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
MIDDLE VOLGA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Middle Volga - Crop Region 16
PET A = 1058 June Daylength = 13748 Latitude 520N PET I 35238 July Daylength = 13296
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April June July
Overall Constant 100 982458 982458 982458 982458 Sep-Apr Pree (nn) DFN 26993 002395 002296 002006 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7604 005673 005150 Jul Pree - PET (mm) DFN -9344 002358
R Squared 000000 042909 062026 068602 Standard Error (QHa) 241340 189799 161676 154188 Standard Variance (QHa) 582449 360236 261392 237740
degStandard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1971 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1971 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
NORTHWEST URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest Urals - Crop Region 18
PET A = 874 April Daylength = 1882 Latitude = 580N PET I = 23120 May Daylength 13834
June Daylength = 14885
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April May June
Overall Constant 100 624429 818627 778111 813741 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 027531 004685 009451 009651 Apr Prec - PET (mm) DEN 839 009554 009193 006438 Apr Mean Temp (SC) DFN 287 093806 078612 053556 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4475 -001376 -002616 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -6152 004317 Jun Prec - PET (mm) SDrN -6152 -000040
R Squared 031130 056019 057666 076002 Standard Error (QHa) 201803 174188 178494 148573 Standard Variance (QHa) 407246 303414 318602 220739
Standard Deviation of Yields = 241340 QHa
DIN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
SOUTHERN URALSrWESTERN KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Southern Urals - Crop Region 19 Western Kazakhstan - Crop Region 21
0 PET A = 1076 May Daylength = 14010 Latitude = 59 N PET I = 36473 June Daylength = 15135
Crop Region 21 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 21 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant 100 114404 1050547 1065578 1075772 1013858 Crop Region 21 Constant Nov-Apr Prec (mm) Nov-Apr Pree (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (degC)
DFN SDFN DFN DYN DEN
100 14194 14194 -7382
-10597 2173
-435112 -290132 004463 000008
-320907 004705 000006
-001246
-262653 003239
-000012 -002435 005190
-183449 003203
-000003 shy002567 002902
-066473
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
030510 328612
1079856
056484 272145 740627
056877 277604 770642
063295 262769 690474
071302 238715 569849
Standard Deviation of Yields = 385906 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 19 and 21 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 1962-1964 1969-1970 and 1972-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Missing for Western Kazakhstan
Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
NORTHEASTERN URALS SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northeastern Urals - Crop Region 20
PET A = 898 June Daylength = 14448 Latitude 560N PET I = 24720
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June August
Overall Constant 100 937018 997322 1272468 1268680 Linear Trend (1958-1973) 1600 042498 035404 003033 003479 Apr Pree (mm) DFN 2356 008081 000936 001663 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DEN -6288 009048 010930 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5588 -005692
R Squared 031550 038293 066771 076703 Standard Error (QHa) 308486 303954 232156 203031 Standard Variance (QHa) 951633 923880 538965 412215
Standard Deviation of Yields = 360219 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1973 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1973 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
NORTHEAST KAZAKH SPRING-WHEAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
Kunstanay - Crop Region 22 Tsslinograd - Crop Region 23 Northern Kazakhstan - Crop Region 24 Pavlodar - Crop Region 25
PET A = 987 May Daylength - 13113 Latitude = 53degN PET I = 30533 June Daylength = 13906
July Daylength = 13431
Crop Region 24 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 24 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June Jul
Overall Constant 100 739502 760706 765250 793874 934027 Crop Region 24 Constant Apr Mean Temp (0C) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Prec - PET (mm) Jul Mean Temp (0C)
DFN DFN DFN SDFN DITN
100 406
-5555 -9426 -8595 2031
210275 176968 -045418
169216 -012129 004311
143237 -023457 002434 007773
080349 -050309 002165 007456
-000127 -051645
R Squared 009543 020096 032184 052166 072607 Standard Error (QHa) 288452 275181 257445 219674 171874 Standard Variance (QHa) 832046 757247 662778 482567 295407
Standard Deviation of Yields = 298922 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 22 23 24 and 25 SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1961 1965-1968 1971
19 58 19 71 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on r
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
SIBERIA-ALTAI SPRING W EAT COVARIANCE MODEL
Region
West Siberia - Crop Region 26 Altai Krai - Crop Region 27
0 PET A = 922 May Daylength = 13517 Latitude = 56 N PET I = 26232 June Daylength = 14448
July Daylength = 13887
Crop Region 26 Constant = 1 if Data from Crop Region 26 Otherwise 0
Variable Deviation Normal Constant March April May June July August
Overall Constant 100 1036206 1014462 1072857 1246659 1169695 1312888 1323614 Crop Region 26 Constant 100 -050450 -006966 -014280 -165014 -166298 -235021 -217003 Sep-Mar Pree (mm) DFN 19333 003362 -000437 -000827 -002072 -001831 -001377 Apr Prec (mm) DEN 2597 022124 014560 012189 008049 010557 Apr Prec (mm) SDFN 2597 -000446 -000514 -000382 -000480 000526 May Prec - PET (mm) DEN -4988 005790 004042 004680 005530 May Prec - PET (mm) SDFN -4988 -000106 -000034 -000049 -000036 Jun Prec - PET (mm) DFN -7445 006239 007056 007219 Jul Pree - PET (mm) SDFN -7885 -000064 -000084 Aug Prec (mm) DFN 5377 -005937
R Squared 000447 010830 042824 056393 068148 072495 080402 Standard Error (QHa) 389871 375750 312686 284698 248789 236630 204675 Standard Variance (QHa) 1519996 1411882 977723 810532 618958 559937 418919
Standard Deviation of Yields 383949 (QHa)
DFN= Departure from Normal Yields and Climatic Data are Pooled Over Crop Regions 26 and 27 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
South Kazakhstan - Crop Region 29
PET A = 1015
PET I = 32393 June Daylength = 13460 July Daylength = 13049
Latitude =50N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July August
Overall Constant Sep-Apr Prec (mm) May Temp (oC) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Aug Prec (mm)
DFN DFN DrN DFN DFN
100 17012 1319
-9493 -9729 3261
820883 822386 003913
835113 004524
-062806
809219 006256
-021515 010224
807708 006507
-017299 010043 000757
788205 005346
-018741 009599 000658 -005057
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 279059 778739
021318 256877 659859
055796 200400 401602
078559 145777 212510
079261 150366 226098
081376 150203 225608
Standard Deviation of Yields = 279059 QHa
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1971-1974 Meteorological No~mals Based on 1957-1974
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
CENTRAL ASIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Central Asia - Crop Region 30
PET A = PET I =
1421 59091
April Daylength = 10977 May Daylength 11921 June Daylength = 12373
Latitude = 400N
Variable Deviation Normal Constant April May June July
Overall Constant Apr Prec - PET (mm) Apr Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) May Prec - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jul Temp (oC)
DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DFN SDFN DEN
100 2417 2417
-5230 -5230
-12127 -12127
2594
585231 633719 001504
-000040
678623 000626
-000040 001943
-000044
744896 000780
-000050 001957
-000061 -000686 -000179
743362 000821
-000049 001872
-000060 -000755 -000178 -006632
R SquaredStandard Error (QHa)
Standard Variance (QHa)
000000 117600
138298
028803 106080
112530
062768 082858
068654
083811 059852 035823
084042 062638 039236
Standard Deviation of Yields = 117600 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1974 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1974
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
EASTERN SIBERIA SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Eastern Siberia - Crop Region 31
PET A = 906 June Daylength = 13906 Latitude =53 N PET I = 25181
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July August
Overall Constant 100 921112 932541 1017852 1023747 968920 Linear Trend (1958-1972) 1500 026451 025022 014358 013621 020475 Mar-Say Prec (mm) DFN 6873 001594 002380 002315 002714 Jun Pree - PET (mm) DFN -6808 007714 005760 006060 Jul Temp (0C) DFN 1912 -044442 -012261 Aug Pree (mm) DFN 6080 -003368
R Squared 027949 030623 071120 076052 085004 Standard Error (QHa) 197101 201307 135656 129562 108070 Standard Variance (QHa) 388489 405244 184026 167863 116790
Standard Deviation of Yields = 223757 QHa
DFN = Departure from Normal Yields Based on 1958-1972 SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Meteorological Normal Based on 1958-1972 Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
FAR EAST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Far East - Crop Region 32
PET A = 997 June Daylength m 13460 Latitude = 500N PET I = 31201 July Daylength = 13049
Variable Deviation Normal Trend May June July September
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) May Temp (0C) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jun Free - PET (mm) Jul Pree - PET (mm) Sep Pree (mm)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN DFN
100 1500 1148
-3137 -3137 -1188 7607
547145 037941
599671 029597 076039
647163 033527 048272 001584
-000025
660890 036973 008222 001990
-000037 000946
675554 042602
-085102 002472
-000052 002187
-002711
LA R SquaredStandard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
053412 165844
275042
062298 155826
242818
077856 132027
174312
079712 134037
179658
086153 118379
140136
Standard Deviation of Yields = 233443 Q1a
DFN Departure from Normal SDFN = Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1968 and 1970-1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972 for One Station -
Blagoveschesk
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
NORTHWEST SPRING WHEAT MODEL
Region
Northwest - Crop Region 33
PET A = 897 June Daylength = 14885 Latitude = 58degN FET I = 24646
Variable Deviation Normal Trend April June July
Overall Constant Linear Trend (1958-1972) Apr Pree (mm) Jun Pree - PET (mm) Jun Prec - PET (mm) Jul Temp (0C)
DFN DFN SDFN DFN
100 1500 3480
-6610 -6610 1757
441524 046762
448170 045829 000461
513108 045822 001411 001664
-000059
518313 045239 001182 001306
-000059 -016707
LA
R Squared Standard Error (QHa) Standard Variance (QHa)
064011 157275 247355
064068 164139 269414
069258 167847 281725
070450 174541 304646
Standard Deviation of Yields = 251880 QHa
DEN = Departure from Normal SDFN Squared Departure from Normal Yields Measured in Quintals per Hectare
Yields Based on 1958-1970 and 1972 Meteorological Normals Based on 1958-1972
NASA-JSC
May 1977
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