creating the 21 st century grid
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Creating The 21st Century Grid
Global Energy Management Institute Power Conference
C. John WilderChief Executive Officer
June 29, 2006
2
Today’s Discussion
Global electricity Global electricity 20th century’s greatest achievement Global electrification challenge
21st century power needs21st century power needs
Digitization of advanced economies Historic lack of investment Economic cost of outages
Grid technology advances
Grid technology advances
Evolving technology opportunities Investment requirements TXU technology examples
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Lifestyle improvement Innovative products and services
3
Electrification Changed The World In The 20th Century, But Faces Significant Challenges In The 21st Century
The world’s population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050; electricity’s global impact must be even greater in the 21st century to meet the world’s growing
energy needs
The world’s population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050; electricity’s global impact must be even greater in the 21st century to meet the world’s growing
energy needs
4
Universal Electrification Could Drive Step Changes In Productivity…
Lights out: World population without power05; Percent (100%=6.5 billion)
150
5
Small price to pay: Cost to modernize grid vs. average electric bill05; $/month per household
In demand: Cost required for universal electrification05; $ trillion
3
11
U.S. in 2025 World in 2050
Productivity pays: Est. annual GDP increase 25E-50E; $ trillions
Source: EPRI Electricity Technology Roadmap
25
75With electricity
Without electricity
12.0
Avg. bill Cost to modernize grid
12.2 12.4
Cost to build 10TW
U.S. GDP 05E
EU GDP 05E
5
…And Improve Quality Of Life Around The Globe
Lower infant mortality…
Average infant mortality rate
03; Mortalities per 1000 births
Source: EIA, CIA Factbook
Abundant power supply drives better health care and stronger economiesAbundant power supply drives better health care and stronger economies
51
10
< 4 MWh/personconsumption
> 4 MWh/personconsumption
…and stronger economic output
Average GDP per capita
03; $ per person
210
1,950
< 4 MWh/personconsumption
> 4 MWh/personconsumption
80%80%
829%829%
6
Today’s Discussion
Global electricity Global electricity 20th century’s greatest achievement Global electrification challenge
21st century power needs21st century power needs
Digitization of advanced economies Historic lack of investment Economic cost of outages
Grid technology advances
Grid technology advances
Evolving technology opportunities Investment requirements TXU technology examples
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Lifestyle improvement Innovative products and services
7
The Emerging Digital Economy Is Testing The Limits Of The Current System…
Without greater investment, the existing U.S. system will not reliably support the increasing demand for energy
Without greater investment, the existing U.S. system will not reliably support the increasing demand for energy
Growing demand: U.S. Electricity consumption 40-03; % of total energy use
97 03
50
1,6001,500%1,500%
Stressed system: Congestion loading relief requests 97-03; Number
40 70 03
300%300%
Need for technology: “Digital quality” electrical load 80-20; Percent
80 00 20E
400%400%
8
10.510.0
7.5
6.0
4.5
0.5
Private sector R&D investment95; % of net sales
…Compounded By A Historical Lack Of Investment In R&D And Infrastructure…
6
4
90 00
U.S. investment in energy R&D90-00; $ billions
U.S. federal R&D support for energy is only about 4% of total federal energy R&D outlays
U.S. federal R&D support for energy is only about 4% of total federal energy R&D outlays
Source: EPRI
Medi-cine
Comm.equip.
Svcs. Chem-icals
Trans. equip.
Energy
50%50%
9
…Causing Outages That Cost Customers Billions Annually
100
300
Current est. loss Future expectedloss
U.S. economic cost of outages $ billions/year Today, outage costs represent 1% of
GDP
This loss represents a cost of $0.50 for every $1 spent on electricity
Technology investments could reduce outage costs by 50-80%
If no investment is made to transform the grid system, the annual cost of outages could reach $300 billion
Today, outage costs represent 1% of GDP
This loss represents a cost of $0.50 for every $1 spent on electricity
Technology investments could reduce outage costs by 50-80%
If no investment is made to transform the grid system, the annual cost of outages could reach $300 billion
Source: EPRI
10
Today’s Discussion
Global electricity Global electricity 20th century’s greatest achievement Global electrification challenge
21st century power needs21st century power needs
Digitization of advanced economies Historic lack of investment Economic cost of outages
Grid technology advances
Grid technology advances
Evolving technology opportunities Investment requirements TXU technology examples
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Lifestyle improvement Innovative products and services
11
A Slate Of Breakthrough Technologies Are On The Horizon…
Stage 1:
Current technology
Stage 2:
Near-term technology
Stage 3:
Potential future technology
Automated switching
Digital fault analysis
Broadband over Power Line
Advanced load management with smart appliances
AC/DC microgrids
Advanced distributed energy solutions
Smart appliances
Power quality monitoring services
Customized power service packages
TXU Electric Delivery is investing in today’s leading-edge technology, but more will be required as new “game changers” become commercially available
TXU Electric Delivery is investing in today’s leading-edge technology, but more will be required as new “game changers” become commercially available
12
…Requiring Significant Investment To Realize The Full Benefits
100
50
110
Transmission investment needs05-25E; $ billions
Load growth
Correcting deficiencies
Transformed delivery system
330
5
260
Distribution investment needs05-25E; $ billions
To achieve this grid transformation, annual transmission and distribution investment would have to increase by 65% and the 20-year total is over $850
billion
To achieve this grid transformation, annual transmission and distribution investment would have to increase by 65% and the 20-year total is over $850
billion
Load growth
Correcting deficiencies
Transformed delivery system
13
“Self-Healing” Technologies Will Change The Way We Manage And Respond To Outages…
Tree limb falls on line causing a feeder outage
1
2
Automated switches reconfigure system to restore service to majority of customers within 1 min.
3 Dispatcher notifies field technician who inspects entire feeder for outage source; average restoration time of 40 mins.
3 Disruption location pinpointed and service restored to remaining customers within 24 mins.
Old
Way
New Way
Where deployed, automation technology enhances customer serviceby eliminating sustained interruptions for 2/3 of the customers and reducing restoration
time up to 40% for the remaining 1/3 of the customers
Where deployed, automation technology enhances customer serviceby eliminating sustained interruptions for 2/3 of the customers and reducing restoration
time up to 40% for the remaining 1/3 of the customers
2
Customer calls outage in and Operations Center receives notification
14
…And Digital Fault Analysis Could Prevent Disruptions…
A tree limb was hanging over a line, causing 17 poletop recloser operations over 23 hours
There were no substation breaker trips, so Operations did not recognize a problem
The tree limb burned down the line, locking out the recloser and interrupting 140 customers for 62 mins.
A tree limb was hanging over a line, causing 17 poletop recloser operations over 23 hours
There were no substation breaker trips, so Operations did not recognize a problem
The tree limb burned down the line, locking out the recloser and interrupting 140 customers for 62 mins.
Source: TAMU/EPRI study
15
…Resulting In Industry-Leading Reliability Performance
U.S. electric delivery company performance
05; SAIDI1
TXU Electric Delivery has achieved top quartile cost and reliability TXU Electric Delivery has achieved top quartile cost and reliability
0
75
150
225
300
50 100 150 200 250
Distribution O&M and capital cost ($/customer)
1 Excluding major events and planned outages
TXU
Top quartile SAIDI
Top quartile cost
TXU ED’s target
16
TXU Is Redefining Utility Service Enabled By BPL
17
18
Today’s Discussion
Global electricity Global electricity 20th century’s greatest achievement Global electrification challenge
21st century power needs21st century power needs
Digitization of advanced economies Historic lack of investment Economic cost of outages
Grid technology advances
Grid technology advances
Evolving technology opportunities Investment requirements TXU technology examples
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Customer benefits of a smart grid
Lifestyle improvement Innovative products and services
19
Advanced Grid Technologies Are Enhancing The Quality Of Life In The Communities We Serve…
Lifestyle Area Benefits of Electricity
1 Basic needs
Lighting Medicine storage Food preparation and preservation
2 Comfort Heating/Hot water Air conditioning
3 Security Well maintained electric infrastructure Video surveillance
4 Productivity
Enabling digital devices, e.g. PCs Enhanced reliability Power quality
5 Conservation/ Environment
Remote monitoring and meter reading Smart home applications
20
Bundled svcs. (data, video)
…And Unleashing The Potential For Innovative New Products And Services For Customers
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
One regulated price
Rewards+Term savings
Simple Savings
RenewableFreedom Plan
Yesterday Tomorrow (06+)Today
Indexed Savings
PTB Discount
Surge Protection
Market Tracker+ Smart
homes
Time of use
Power quality mgmt
On-site load mgmt
Energy efficiency
Future products will give customers greater choice and control over their energy consumption and costs
Future products will give customers greater choice and control over their energy consumption and costs
21
Advancements And Investments In Technology Can Provide The Solution To The World’s Energy Needs
The world is facing bigger energy challenges than ever before
– Digital economy
– World population will increase more than 33% by 2050
– 25% of the world has little or no access to power (and growing)
Investments in technology and infrastructure can provide universal electrification
– In the U.S. alone, GDP could increase by $3 trillion
– In the world, GDP could increase by $11 trillion
Technology advances will drive benefits for society
– Better reliability and power quality
– Innovative products and services allowing customer choice and control over energy usage
– Improved safety and security of the system
Creating The 21st Century Grid
Global Energy Management Institute Power Conference
C. John WilderChief Executive Officer
June 29, 2006
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