crafting great hypotheses - droidcon 2016
Post on 20-Jan-2017
543 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
UX TRACK
HOANG HUYNH @aetheros
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
2
WHAT IF Quantum Break - courtesy of Remedy
ABOUT
THIS IS ME
3
HI! My name is HOANG
I AM A DESIGNER
Experience Strategist, partner PRSD CSPO®, Advisor and Consultant
Lecturer, University of Bologna (FAM) Country Manager IDF
@aetheros
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES4
courtesy of someone on Ebay5
HI! WE ARE
A DESIGNER
courtesy of LADYBEARD6
HI! WE ARE
A DESIGNER
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES7
MEANWHILE…‣ Fact: Observations about the world around us. Example: “It’s bright
outside.”
‣ Hypothesis: A proposed explanation for a phenomenon made as a starting point for further investigation. Example: “It’s bright outside because the sun is probably out.”
‣ Theory: A well-substantiated explanation acquired through the scientific method and repeatedly tested and confirmed through observation and experimentation. Example: “When the sun is out, it tends to make it bright outside.”
‣ Law: A statement based on repeated experimental observations that describes some phenomenon of nature. Proof that something happens and how it happens, but not why it happens. Example: Newton’s Law of Universal Gravitation.
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES8
IT’S NOT ABOUT
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES9
A STORY
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES10
A STORY
1880 Otto Frederick Rohwedder
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES11
‣ 1912 Otto invented the bread slicer machine
‣ He sold everything to fund his new venture
‣ 1916 He created a prototype
‣ 1917 A fire destroyed everything
‣ 1927 He tried again
A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES12
‣ 1928 … and again … and again …. and again…
‣ Once more, with feelings
‣ 1930 Continental Baking Company introduced sliced Wonder Bread
‣ The rest is history…
A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES13
‣ 1928 … and again … and again …. and again…
‣ Once more, with feelings
‣ 1930 Continental Baking Company introduced sliced Wonder Bread
‣ The rest is history…
A STORY SAD, OTTO
14 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
THE REAL HERO
CHARLES IN CHARGE !
Charles Strite
15
DO NOT RELY ON LUCKCRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
THE BOTTOM LINE
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES16
‣ We track everything on the client (app) and server side.
‣ We track every action, every intent, with their result.
‣ We track the elapsed time
‣ We track the errors and the rebounded actions and all the give ups.
0"
5"
10"
15"
20"
25"
30"
35"
1"285"
569"
853"
1137"
1421"
1705"
1989"
2273"
2557"
2841"
3125"
3409"
3693"
3977"
4261"
4545"
4829"
Number'of'Errors'
Number"of"Errors"
0,00%"
50,00%"
100,00%"
150,00%"
200,00%"
250,00%"
300,00%"
350,00%"
1"285"
569"
853"
1137"
1421"
1705"
1989"
2273"
2557"
2841"
3125"
3409"
3693"
3977"
4261"
4545"
4829"
%'of'Errors'
%"of"Errors"
0"
0,2"
0,4"
0,6"
0,8"
1"
1,2"
1,4"
1"270"
539"
808"
1077"
1346"
1615"
1884"
2153"
2422"
2691"
2960"
3229"
3498"
3767"
4036"
4305"
4574"
4843"
Average'Time'
Average"Time"
courtesy from ADOBE17
A NOT SO FICTIONAL EXAMPLE
Crafting Great Hypotheses18
DEVISE A PLAN
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES19
‣ What is the problem?
‣ Will it be considered?
‣ Will it sell? How?
‣ Will it be used? HOW?
‣ Will it be appreciated?
‣ Will it be loved?
ABOUT THE BUSINESS
LOVE MARKS
AWARENESS
FAMILIARITY
CONSIDERATION
PURCHASE
LOYALTY
LOVE
WORSHIP
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES20
LEANING LEAN…
BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros21
THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS
BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros22
THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS
WE ARE WRONG ’TIL “reasonably” PROVEN RIGHT
WE ARE RIGHT UNTIL PROVEN WRONG
BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros23
THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS
WILL BE TESTED (for sure)
WE ARE ALREADY RIGHT (who cares?)
24
If we believe there is even a one percent chance that he is our enemy, we have to take it as an absolute certainty. ~ Daredevil”
ASSUMPTIONS
BY SHEER WILL
BvS - courtesy of Warner Bros
Breaking Bad - courtesy of AMC25
DING.
ASSUMPTIONS
BY MEMORY OR EXPERIENCE
FOOTNOTE or SECTION TITLE26
ASSUMPTIONS
BY CONTEXT
SHERLOCK - courtesy of BBC127
‣ DEDUCTION:using general rules to m a k e a p r e d i c t i o n about a future event or action.
‣ INDUCTION: drawing new (hopefully) conclus ions or ru les based on observations or patterns of behavior.
HYPOTHESES
THE SMARTEST WAY
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES28
‣ 1. Systems Analysis analyzing the parts of a system and how they interact; simulations
‣ 2. Problem Solving overcoming constraints or limiting conditions to achieve a goal
‣ 3. Experimental Inquiry generating and testing explanations of observed phenomena
‣ 4. Investigationidentifying and resolving issues regarding past events that have confusions or contradictions
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
29
BIAS ARE ALWAYS BEHIND
THE CORNER
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
NASSIM TALEB’S
BLACK SWAN
30 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
BIASES
FINAL DESTINATION, courtesy of New Line31
‣ The normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It c a u s e s p e o p l e t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e b o t h t h e possibility of a disaster and its possible effects. This may result in situations where people fail to adequately prepare and, on a larger scale, the failure of governments to include the p o p u l a c e i n i t s d i s a s t e r preparations.
BIASES - BEFORE
Dr. WHO’s Perception Filter - courtesy of BBC132
‣ Somebody / Someone else's problem (also known as SEP) i s a psychological effect where people choose to dissociate themselves from an issue that may be in critical need of recognition.
BIASES - BEFORE
From TUMBLR33
‣ Dunning-Kruger effectT h e t e n d e n c y f o r unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency f o r e x p e r t s t o underestimate their own ability
BIASES - DURING A TEST
courtesy of James Clear34
‣ Confirmation bias The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.
‣ Congruence bias T h e t e n d e n c y t o t e s t h y p o t h e s e s e x c l u s i v e l y th rough d i rec t te s t i ng , instead of testing possible alternative hypotheses
BIASES - DURING A TEST
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES35
‣ H i n d s i g h t b i a s , a l s o known as the knew-it-all-along effect or creeping d e t e r m i n i s m , i s t h e inclination, after an event has occurred, to see the event as having been pred ictab le , desp i te there having been little or no objective basis for predicting it
BIASES - AFTER
36
GAMES, SIMULATION,
INQUIRYCRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
WITH YOUR COMPANY / CLIENTS
THE RIGHT WAY
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES37
‣ SIMPLE, CLEAR, CONCISE
‣ TESTABLE
‣ FALSIFIABLE (the opposite exists)
‣ CANNOT BE PROVEN(It’s philosophical)
HYPOTHESES’
FEATURES
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES38
‣ FORMULATE THE NULL HYPOTHESES (H0)
‣ CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE ALTERNATIVES
‣ DEFINING VARIABLES
‣ SPECIFY THE LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE ( THRESHOLD )
‣ VALIDATE LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW
CRAFTING HYPOTHESES
BACK IN THE MATH CLASS
from DAVID SHERWIN39
‣ Attitude-related hypothesis “TV watchers who use social networks like to hear about their friends’ favorite TV shows.”
‣ Behavior-related hypothesis“TV watchers only want to share clips from shows they watch most frequently.”
‣ Feature-related hypothesis “TV watchers are more likely to share a highlight from a show if it’s popular with other viewers as well.”
IF WE DO [THIS] , [VARIABLE] of CUSTOMERS WILL [BEHAVIOUR]
CRAFTING HYPOTHESES
DOMAINS
ONE CLICK CUSTOMER CARE
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES40
THE SCENARIO
‣ One action bluetooth button
Hoang Huynh @aetheros
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
THANK YOU
top related