cost 722 : short range fog forecasting, visibility and low cloud
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COST 722 : Short Range Fog Forecasting, Visibility and low cloud6th EMS Conference Ljubljana, September 2006
COST-722
Comparison of 3D fog models and satellite
fog/ very low stratus products
M.Masbou1,2, M. D. Müller3 & Jan Cermak4
1 Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany, mmasbou@uni-bonn.de
2 Laboratoire de Météorologie physique, University Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand, France
3 Institute of Meteorology, Climatology & Remote Sensing, University of Basel, Switzerland
4 Laboratory for Climatology & Remote Sensing, University of Marburg, Germany
Transport Safety and Fog Events
Three-dimensional Fog forecast model
Simulation on the same Lindenberg Area (Germany N 53,21 W 14,11)
Based on NMM non-hydrostatic Model (Janjic Z. I., 2003)
Based on “Lokal Modell” (LM) non-hydrostatic Model (Steppeler J. & al., 2003)
Hz. Resolution: 1 x 1 km Area: 160 x 160 km
Hz. Resolution: 2.8 x 2.8 km Area: 280 x 280 km
Vert. Resolution: 45 Levels concentrated nearest the ground
Vert. Resolution: 40 Levels Δzmin=4m at the ground
Same Fog Microphysics Parameterization PAFOG (Bott & Trautmann 2002)
NMM-PAFOG
LM-PAFOG
Initialization and Boundary: NMM 13 km
Initialization and Boundary: LME Model 7km available for all Europe
MSG SEVIRI Satellite Products
1- Fog is a cloud
2- in water phase
3- composed of small droplets
4- low above the ground and
5- stratiform
Satellite Products
Pc- Cloud Confidence Level
Threshold
Cloud Confidence Rangeis set to 5 K
Confidence Level
If 0.5
1.0Cloudy
Clear 0.0
Blackbody temperature difference
Interpolation of satellite datato high resolution model grid
Compute contingency tablebased on pixel values.
Confidence value thresholdof 45 % for fog discrimination
Comparison 3D Models – Satellite Products : How to procede ?
September, 27th 2005
01 UTC NOAA17
+
+
LM-PAFOG
Δx=2.8km
280x280 km
NMM-PAFOG
Δx= 1 km
160x160 km
Lindenberg Area – September 2005, 27th 00UTC
LM-PAFOG
Δx= 2.8km
280x280 km
NMM-PAFOG
Δx= 1 km
160x160 km
Lindenberg Area – September 2005, 27th 01UTC
LM-PAFOG
Δx= 2.8km
280x280 km
NMM-PAFOG
Δx= 1 km
160x160 km
Lindenberg Area – September 2005, 27th 02UTC
Lindenberg Area – September 2005, 27th 03UTC
LM-PAFOG
Δx= 2.8km
280x280 km
NMM-PAFOG
Δx= 1 km
160x160 km
Lindenberg Area – September 2005, 27th 04UTC
LM-PAFOG
Δx= 2.8km
280x280 km
NMM-PAFOG
Δx= 1 km
160x160 km
Lindenberg Area – September 2005, 27th 05UTC
LM-PAFOG
Δx= 2.8km
280x280 km
NMM-PAFOG
Δx= 1 km
160x160 km
Lindenberg Area – September 2005, 27th 06UTC
LM-PAFOG
Δx= 2.8km
280x280 km
NMM-PAFOG
Δx= 1 km
160x160 km
LWC 2m
Integrated LWC 0-2000m
LM-PAFOG: Forecast hour 10 UTC – DECEMBER 2005
LWC 2m
Integrated LWC 0-2000m
NMM-PAFOG: Forecast hour 38 UTC – DECEMBER 2005
INTEGRATED LWC 0-2 000m: Larger Statistic
LM-PAFOG
NMM-PAFOGLM-PAFOG
Accordance between Satellite Products and 3D Models
Further Developments are necesserary
BUT, Both Model have RELATIVELY LOW discrimination capabilities
870mLindenberg
NOAA/AVHRR
Verification with NOAA data - 10 October 2005NMM_PAFOG
Test on Zurich Area
Verification with Meteosat 8 data - 11 October 2005
Zürich airport Zürich airport
90 km
Zürich airport
Verification with Meteosat 8 data - 11 October 2005
Zürich airport
CONCLUSIONO
utl
oo
k
- Integrated Column water 0-2000m COMPARABLE
- Long time verification on Zurich Area
- Modelled 2m LWC not directly comparable to currently available satellite products (Low stratus Products)
- Comparison Satellite fog mask/3D fog Models
- Zurich results from COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY show BETTER performance.
COST 722
Th
anks
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