convert the extra point - smx advanced 2015
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#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
3 Strategies Anyone can use to Measure the Success Beyond The Last Click
Convert The Extra Point
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Meet Mark Irvine
• Data Scientist at Wordstream in Boston, MA
• Researches industry trends in PPC
• Been working Paid Search for 3 Years
• Before PPC Life, worked with NESN, ESPN, & CBS Sports
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
The MLB was dominated by teams with big pockets – who focused strongly on buying players around a small set of metrics.
The Oakland Athletics GM, Billy Beane, found himself with a small budget, a gutted team, and a radical idea.
Moneyball – Baseball in 2001
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
A Focus on New Metrics
Last Season’s Stats Recruit A Recruit B Recruit C
Age 22 25 31
HR 8 8 4
RBI 18 21 12
BA .313 .291 .222
On Base % .312 .321 .431
3 imaginary recruits
The focus of most MLB General Managers
The focus of the Oakland office
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
The 2002 Oakland A’s won as many games as the New York Yankees – with only a third their budget
Oakland A’s take 20 game winning streak
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Small advertisers can’t afford to compete by looking at all the same metrics –
They need to play smarter.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
New Media Playing With Old Metrics
Metric Shopping Specific Product Keywords
Broader “Top of the Funnel” Keywords
Click Volume 3,293 5,598 8,905
CTR 1.56% 2.96% 1.02%
CPA $92 $101 $233
Conversion Rate 1.86% 3.05% 0.65%
Conversions 61 170 58
Case study SMB Account:
Initial Reaction: Pause /pull back campaign!
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
This campaign produced a lot of traffic – but rarely ever converted.
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000100
120
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Original Performance
Original Performance
Clicks in Poor Campaign
Co
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#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
Without making major changes to any other campaign, we saw conversions from other campaigns begin to fall off as a result.
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000100
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260So We Pulled Back on the Campaign
Original Performance
Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign
Clicks in Poor Campaign
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#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
And conversions still fell for a few more weeks.
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000100
120
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220
240
260So We Stopped
Original Performance
Pulling Back on Poor Performing Campaign
Following Weeks
Clicks in Poor Campaign
Co
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#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Campaigns Provide Value Beyond CPA
In this case, not only did reducing this “poor converting” campaign reduce direct conversions. It also:
• Reduced the search interest in other campaigns by 10%.• Reduced the conversion rate in other search campaigns by
26%.• Reduced the conversion rate of all website traffic by 12%.
• Total online sales suffered an 18% drop.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Token Funnel Slide
These searchers
Become prospects
Become customers*! *But not always in 1 click
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Attribution is Critical
89% Of marketers believe attribution is important.
Source: AdRoll
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
But Most Aren’t Thinking With It
But 66%
of marketers use a single-touch attribution model
Source: AdRoll
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We all say we value attribution, but we clearly don’t know how to.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Attribution Hat Trick
Today’s 3 Goals:1. Full Funnel Insight with Conversion
Paths2. Choosing the Right Attribution Model3. Attributing Online Action to Offline
Marketing
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Follow Conversion Paths
#1:Keep your eye on
the ball
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions
Some assist. They create new
opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal.
Some convert. They work with your
core audience and bring them directly to your goal.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We Need To Use Smarter Metrics
Conversion paths available on the Campaign, Ad Group, Keyword, & Search Query levels!
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Different Campaigns Need to Play Different Positions
These are your assisted conversions.
They create new opportunities with new audiences and bring them closer to your goal.
These are your direct conversions (last click).
They work with your core audience and bring them directly to your goal.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Valuing Campaigns For What They’re Worth
Assisted conversions can be integrated into your decision metrics:
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Choosing The Right Attribution Model
#2:Play the Right
Game
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Not All Assists Are Worth The Same
Individual assists worth LESS
Individual assists worth MORE
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Not All Assists Are Worth The Same
Individual assists worth LESS
Individual assists worth MORE
Products or services with a short buying cycle or low profit margins on advertising.
Products or services with a long buying cycle or high profit margins on advertising.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Google Attribution ModelsModel First Click Middle Clicks Last Click
Last Interaction(Default for Google Analytics)
0% 0% 100%
Last Non-Direct Click 0% 100% (All on the last non-direct click)
0% (If Direct)
Last AdWords Click(Default for AdWords)
0% 100% (All on the last AdWords click)
0% (If not AdWords)
First Interaction 100% 0% 0%
Linear Equal Equal Equal
Time Decay Least More Most
Position Based 40% 20% (Split Evenly) 40%
Data Driven(Available within GA Premium – soon to be rolled out further)
Based on source Based on source Based on source
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Position Based Position based modeling heavily weights first and last
clicks Ideal when your campaigns are designed to educate about
your product. Great for when you’re trying to create a demand for your
niche.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Time Decay Time Decay modeling heavily weights most recent clicks Ideal when your campaigns are designed to differentiate
yourself from competitors. Great if you have several campaigns targeting the same
users while they’re evaluating their potential purchase.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Comparing Models
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Work Other Channels Into Your Model
#3:Be a Team Player
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We Live in A Multi-Device World
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Offline Media Creates Online Action
1:50
1:52
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1:56
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2:00
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0%
100%
200%
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400%
500%
600%
700%
Website Visitors Following Regional TV Buy
Active Website Visitors
Time
Sh
are
of
typ
ica
l a
cti
ve
we
bs
ite
us
ers
2:29 – 6x active users
1:55 - Ad airs
2:02 – 6x active users
2:23 – Traffic 10% Elevated. Ad airs.
2:46 – Traffic 20% Elevated.
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Think Mobile First
1:501:52
1:541:56
1:582:00
2:022:04
2:062:08
2:102:12
2:142:16
2:182:20
2:222:24
2:262:28
2:302:32
2:342:36
2:382:40
2:422:44
2:460%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
Website Visitors Following Regional TV Buy
Mobile VisitorsTablet VisitorsDesktop Visitors
Time
Shar
e of
typi
cal a
ctive
web
site
user
s
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
We’re Looking At Multiple Screens – At the Same Time!
Source: “The New Multi-Screen World Study”,
Think With Google, 2012
Mobile users are
3x more likely to respond to a
commercial
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
And Other Channels Have Different Immediate Returns
Channel Reaction Period
TV & Radio Minutes
Social Hours
PPC Days
SEO Months
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
Recap1. Use Conversion Paths & Assisted
Conversion metrics to fully value your campaigns.
2. Find an Attribution Model that aligns with your marketing goals
3. Value other channels for their contribution
#SMX #13B @MarkIrvine89
THANK YOU!
Mark Irvine, Data Scientist
Wordstream
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