connectivity – first world problem or basic human right?

TeliaSonera International Carrier CONNECTIVITY FIRST WORLD PROBLEM OR BASIC HUMAN RIGHT?

INTERNET A BASIC HUMAN RIGHT? ISOC A FREE AND OPEN INTERNET BACKBONE HOW THE BACKBONE ENABLES THE INTERNET

THE SPOILED GENERATION

FIRST WORLD PROBLEMS?

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

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Michael Kende Chief Economist

Graham Minton Director, Resource

Development

A Free and Open INTERNET.

The Internet Society - keeping the Internet open, thriving, and benefitting people around the globe.

www.internetsociety.org

What is the Internet Society? The Internet Society (ISOC) is a cause-based organization that works with governments, industries, and others to ensure the technologies and policies that helped develop and evolve the Internet will continue into the future.

We believe in an Internet that is open to everyone, everywhere and aim to ensure that it will continue to be a tool for creativity, innovation, and economic growth.

MISSION: To promote the open development, evolution, and use of the Internet for the benefit of all people throughout the world.

History Founded in 1992 by Internet pioneers Vint Cerf and Bob Kahn as an international non-profit organization. The Internet Society is the organizational home of the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), the primary entity responsible for establishing the Internet’s open standards and best practices. For more details, visit www.internetsociety.org/history

Global Presence

100+ Chapters Worldwide

65,000+ Members and Supporters

150+ Organization Members

6 Regional Bureaus

18 Countries with ISOC Offices

NORTH AMERICA

LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

EUROPE

AFRICA

THE MIDDLE EAST

ASIA

SEPT 2014 Chapters

How We Work To Protect Our Internet

Operating at the intersection of policy, technology, and development allows the Internet Society to be a thought leader on issues key to the Internet’s continued growth and evolution.

Technology

Development Policy

The Internet Society at Work

To achieve our mission, the Internet Society:

Provides leadership in policy issues

Advocates open Internet Standards

Promotes Internet technologies that matter

Develops Internet infrastructure

Undertakes outreach that changes lives

Recognizes industry leaders

The Internet Society released its first annual Global Internet Report this year

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The Open Internet resulted from users having a central role in development and governance

19

The result has been significant milestones over the past ten years

Relation Identifier 0.1 Draft

The rise of fixed broadband…

… developing countries…

… and now mobile broadband…

Mobile broadband access has made significant inroads, based in part on smartphones

21

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018*

Con

nect

ions

(mill

ion)

Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe North America

Developed Asia-Pacific Emerging Asia-Pacific Middle East and North Africa

Caribbean and Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017*

Han

dset

shi

pmen

ts (b

illio

n)

Smartphone Other handsets

Source: Analysys Mason, 2013

Mobile broadband is particularly growing in developing regions

22 Source: Analysys Mason, 2013

The result is some big numbers

23

The open Internet offers significant opportunities

24

25

However, Internet penetration levels vary significantly

Source: ITU 2013

26

The digital divide is not binary

Cannot have Internet: “no computer/internet”

“too expensive”

Could have Internet: “no interest/not useful”

“don’t know how to use/confused” “no time”

World Internet Project polled non-adopters for reasons

Source: Internet Society Global Internet Report 2014

Have Internet

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There are issues that impact each group of users or potential users

Could have Internet Cannot have Internet

• Access speeds vary greatly across countries

• Low international resilience increases disruptions

• Filtering impacts the value of Internet access

• Increased users and usage can lead to congestion

• Availability of content reduces interest

• Language of content also has a significant impact

• Location of content hosting impacts performance

• Availability issues are decreased due to mobile broadband

• Affordability is still a significant concern

Resolving each set of issues helps the next group

Have Internet

28

Have Internet

For existing users, the quality of fixed access varies significantly

Source: NetIndex 2014

The Internet is subject to disruption, often from governments to avoid short-run political uses…

29

Have Internet

Source: Renesys 2014

30

… and many governments limit content over the long-run as well

Have Internet

Source: Freedom House 2013

While operators will need to address rising traffic from media-rich content

31

0

'1

'2

'3

'4

'5

'6

2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018*

Traf

fic p

er c

onne

ctio

n (M

B/m

onth

thou

sand

)

Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe North AmericaDeveloped Asia-Pacific Emerging Asia-Pacific Middle East and North AfricaLatin America Sub-Saharan Africa World

Have Internet

Source: Analysys Mason, 2013

Availability of content limits interest for non-users

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Could have Internet

Source: Google, 2013

Google Play availability by content type

33 Source: Internet Society Global Internet Report 2014

Language is a significant issue, and English remains over-represented

Could have Internet

The location of content impacts latency of access

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Could have Internet

Roundtrip time in ms to access YouTube

Source: RIPE Atlas, 2014

Impact of locally hosted content: Google Global Cache in Kenya

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Could have Internet

Google content increased as a result of the cache; all of it went through the

KIXP

Internet availability has benefited from the widespread availability of cellular

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cellularcoverage

3G coverage Cellularpenetration

Internetpenetration

Mobilebroadbandpenetration

Fixedbroadbandpenetration

Availability and adoption in Rwanda

Mobile broadband coverage is high in many countries – Cellular coverage grew quickly in many

countries, leapfrogging fixed

– Offering Internet is not a significant upgrade on voice

Price remains a critical factor – In 2012, broadband cost 26% of average

monthly income in Rwanda

– This owes to a number of factors along the value chain

Cannot have Internet

Source: ITU, 2013

37

Affordability is still a constraint in many countries Cannot have Internet

Source: Internet Society Global Internet Report 2014

Cost of broadband as % of per capita GDP

The Internet value chain contains multiple links

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Internet access service results from international and national connectivity along with last mile access

There are many points at which a policy shortfall could increase the price of Internet service and thereby lower access

This is true in spite of significant investments in recent years across the value chain

Source: Lifting barriers to Internet development in Africa

Cannot have Internet

International connectivity is increasing rapidly

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Only 2 cables existed before 2009 – SEA-ME-WE 3 (North,

2000)

– SAT3 (West Coast, 2001)

International connectivity was significant cost – Submarine cables were

monopoly operated

– Satellite access up to $2000/Mbps

Cannot have Internet

Prices of access to Europe still differ widely, particularly for landlocked countries

40 Source: Lifting barriers to Internet development in Africa

Cannot have Internet

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Recommendations

Could have Internet Cannot have Internet

• Increase operator diversity by liberalising the International gateway

• Increase network and route diversity by lowering cross-border barriers

• Increase robustness and resilience of Internet security and privacy

• Create an enabling environment for creation, use, and access to content

• Work to deploy caches and servers in country to host content locally

• Government should seed market by developing own content

• Remove domestic barriers to connectivity such as rights-of-way policies

• Remove high taxes on equipment and devices

Have Internet

Conclusion

Progress over the past ten years would have been unimaginable – Mobile broadband has overtaken fixed – Developing country users have overtaken developed country – Video has become the dominant source of traffic

As we reach 3 billion users, we have at least three challenges

– Level up the Internet so current users enjoy better services – Promote locally relevant content to generate interest – Remove roadblocks to increase affordability of access

Ten years from now we want to look back with sustained wonder

at the progress made

www.internetsociety.org

Michael Kende – Chief Economist

kende@isoc.org

Graham Minton – Director, Resource Development

minton@isoc.org

Thank You

HOW THE BACKBONE ENABLES THE INTERNET

US & Canada

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America

Internationalnternet Bandwith (Gbps)

5,000 2,500 1,000 100

Source: TeleGeography, 2014-08-14

INTERNET BANDWITH 2014

#2 Europe

Source: Renesys ranking 2014-09-29

#2 Middle

East

#2 North

America

#4 Asia

Top 2 GLOBAL

#1 South

America

INTERNET BACKBONE RANKING

But here’s the challenge…

Anywhereization means data. Staggering quantities, multiplying at a staggering rate.

The video content that will cross the world’s networks every month in 2016 would take six million years* to watch. *Source:Cisco

ONE? MEET ZERO.

ENABLING BANDWIDTH EXPLOSION

Traf

fic v

olum

e in

TS

IC’s

net

wor

k

1998 Large TSIC

clients using approx. 0.045 Gbps

2014 Large TSIC

clients using approx. 400 Gbps

+20,000% volume increase

1998 -99 -00 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -10 -11 2012 -13 2014

8,000 Gbps

In 2012, 50% of all internet traffic is video

CARRYING YOUR BIG IDEA

TRANSIT SERVICES CAPACITY SERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE SERVICES

NURTURE MATURE

TSIC IP Network AS 1299

Incubation Own Premises Single Rack No AS IP Connect @ nGE

TSIC Ethernet Frankfurt

GROWING YOUR BIG IDEA

TSIC IP Network AS 1299

Growth Server farms in multiple countries Own AS Colocation Multi-homed IP Transit @ n10GE

ASxxx

ASxxx

Frankfurt

Hong Kong

New York

GROWING YOUR BIG IDEA

Relation Identifier 0.1 Draft

TSIC IP Network AS 1299

More Growth Server farms & Colocation Multi-homed IP Transit @ n10GE EVPL, ELAN between sites or branch offices (secure data transfer, backup etc.)

TSIC Ethernet

ASxxx

ASxxx

ASxxx

Frankfurt

Hong Kong

New York

GROWING YOUR BIG IDEA

TSIC IP Network AS 1299

Maturity Server farms & Colocation Multi-homed IP Transit @ n10GE EVPL, ELAN Wavelength system and Public Peering

TSIC Ethernet

ASxxx

ASxxx

ASxxx

Frankfurt

Hong Kong

New York

DWDM (n10GE & n100GE)

GROWING YOUR BIG IDEA

Relation Identifier 0.1 Draft

YOU CAN´T PREDICT THE FUTURE BUT YOU CAN BE READY