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Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development

Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development

Competing uses of biomass for energy and chemicals

Implications for long term CO2 mitigation

Daioglou, V., B. Wicke, A.P.C. Faaij, D.P. van Vuuren Utrecht, Thursday 14th April 2016

Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development

Introduction Biomass and energy system emissions

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• Emission mitigation depends on → Potential and competitivness of biomass per sector → Which fossil fuel is displaced and potential leakage → Possibility of advanced technologies (CCS)

(Chum

et

al.,

2011)

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What do we want to know?

What is the mitigation potential of different biomass uses, and how may competition between these uses limit its effective deployment?

How do the competing uses and the mitigation potential change with increasing carbon prices?

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Method

Scenario Analysis

• We project and compare the energy system under different bioenergy use scenarios:

Default– Bioenergy available to all sectors

1. Bio-Industry

2. Bio-Transport

3. Bio-Buildings Bioenergy limited to specific sector

4. Bio-Chemicals

5. Bio-Electricity

Counterfactual – No bioenergy available

• Compare cumulative CO2 emissions for all scenarios to the counterfactual in order to investigate effect of biomass

• Repeat with increasing carbon taxes: 0 – 700$/tC

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Outline

• Long term, global simulation model

• Projects energy demand, fuel choices and associated emissions

• Demand sectors have specific energy functions and technologies

Biomass and Bioenergy

• Primary Sources: Energy crops and Residues

TIMER Energy System Model

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Industry (heat)

Potential Uses

Transport (fuel)

Buildings (heat)

Chemicals (feedstock)

Electricity (+CCS)

Potential Carriers

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

Industry

Transport

Buildings

Chemicals

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Bioenergy

Electricity

Heat

H2

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Solar

Wind

Hydropower

Adapted from Bowman et al. 2006

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Biomass and Bioenergy

TIMER Energy System Model

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Industry (heat)

Potential Uses

Transport (fuel)

Buildings (heat)

Chemicals (feedstock)

Electricity (+CCS)

Potential Carriers

Liquid fuel

Solid fuel

Primary sources

Energy crops (Woody, Grassy, Sugar, Maize)

Residues (Agrticultural, forestry)

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Projection: Default

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In 2100: • Bioenergy = 18% (170 EJ/yr) of total final energy demand

• Used primarily in transport (118 EJ/yr) and buildings (33 EJ/yr)

→ Substitutes liquid fuels

• Increased electrification of energy services leads to indirect emissions

Final Energy Emissions

Note: In Default case no biomass is used to generate electricity.

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Results: Bio-Sector Scenarios

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GtCO2 reduction

Counterfactual cumulative emissions in 2100: 5099 GtCO2

170EJ/yr

31EJ/yr

GtCO2 reduction

GtCO2 reduction

22EJ/yr

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Results: Bio-Sector Scenarios

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16EJ/yr

Counterfactual cumulative emissions in 2100: 5099 GtCO2

125EJ/yr

44EJ/yr 31EJ/yr 22EJ/yr

170EJ/yr

GtCO2 reduction

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Results: Increasing C-taxes

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Total emission reduction for each scenarios: • At taxes > 200$/tC, limiting bioenergy to power production is more

effective than having it compete freely

→ Recall: In baseline electricity demand grows significantly and is

increasingly produced from fossil fuels

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Results: Effectiveness

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Emission reduction per unit bioenergy • Top-left corner indicates most “effective” use

• Taxes usually increase effectiveness

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Results: Effectiveness

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Emission reduction per unit bioenergy • Top-left corner indicates most “effective” use

• Taxes usually increase effectiveness

Def

Def

Def: Default 700$/tC case underlined

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Results: Effectiveness

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Emission reduction per unit bioenergy • Top-left corner indicates most “effective” use

• Taxes usually increase effectiveness

• Transport and Chemicals get less effective due to biomass displacing increasingly cleaner (fossil) options.

E

E

Def

Def

B C C I

B

I

T

T

I: Industry T: Transport B: Buildings C: Chemicals E: Electricity Def: Default 700$/tC case underlined

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Conclusions

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Bioenergy contribution to emission reductions

Transport and Electricity generation

→ Large sectors

→ CCS a critical technology for deep emission reductions

Competing uses of biomass limit its emission reduction potential

Electricity generation offers deeper and more effective emission reductions

→ Displacement of coal

Especially at high taxes and with CCS

Competitive use in transport limits this

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Conclusions

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Biomass: Chemicals vs. Energy uses

Biomass very competitive for chemical uses

→ Projections show its adoption in Default scenario

From a mitigation perspective, chemicals do not contribute much

→ Sector has low overall energy use and emissions

→ Biomass demand does not surpass ≈50 EJ/yr (globally, 2100)

→ Inefficiencies in recycling and cascading limit emission

mitigation of these operations

Importance of different contexts

Global long term studies (such as this one) cannot capture particularities of specific regions, technologies, complexities, etc.

→ Also need detailed mid-term regional assessments

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Thank you for your attention

v.daioglou@uu.nl Publication: Daioglou, V., B. Wicke, A. Faaij, D.P. van Vuuren (2015)

Competing uses of biomass for energy and chemicals: implications for long-term global CO2 mitigation potential. GCB-Bioenergy (7), 1321-1334