coming attractions in energy regulation
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NARUC
1101 Vermont Ave. NW
Suite 200
Washington DC 20005
www.naruc.org
Coming Attractions in
Energy Regulation
Miles Keogh, Director
Julie Taylor, Sr. Program Officer
NARUC Grants & Research
NCSL – December 5 2012
Washington DC
2
Disclaimer
NARUC is the association of State
Commissions.
These are opinions, not NARUC policy,
nor policy of its members.
There are 50 states + DC, with over 200
Commissioners.
Everything will apply to some state, but
there are exceptions to everything in here
in some state too.
3
Agenda
Shifts:
Resource shifts
Technology shifts
Market and regulatory structure shifts
“Known unknowns”
“Unknown Unknowns”
The Game
Paths out of the Game
4
The map of the machine:
three interconnections
Map of the Fleet
Map of the Resources
GasCoal
Nuclear Hydro
Renewable Resources
WindSolar
Biomass Geothermal
Agricultural resources
Wood resources
Agricultural and
Low inventory
residues
and residues
wood residues
Temperature <90C
Temperature >90C
Geopressured resources
o
o
10
10
12
12
14
14
16
16
18
1820
20
2224
26
2224
26
16
14
14
1614
12
10
10
12 <10
10-12
12-14
14-16
16-18
18-20
20-22
22-24
24-26
26-28
>28
6.0-6.5 m/s13.4-14.6 mph
6.5-70 m/s14.6-15.7 mph
>7.0 m/s15.7+ mph
Megajoules/m2
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What you “burn” is what you pay
Source: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861, “Annual Electric Power Industry Report.”
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Reliable: how should we meet
growth?
Sources: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2006and Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Early Release
*Electricity demand projections based on expected growth between 2006-2030
Bill
on
kilo
Wat
tho
urs
Recession
Impact?
Shale Gas: The Game Changer
12
13
Climate Policy by State
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
Regional Initiatives
NARUC Projects, EPA outreach, and the
“Labs”
EPA Office of Air and Radiation has provided grant funding to help Regulators understand and proactively address the EPA regulations. National dialogue (the “3N’s
meeting”, the National Council on Electricity policy)
State and regional dialogue (such as this one)
“Labs”Key topics
Key outcomes14
The way out of the game
Everything we know now may be wrong in
5 years
Minimize your regrets
Use Planning
Diversity of resources
Hedges, where needed
15
16
The Many Charms Of EfficiencyCosts less than a power plant!
Pays you back – now with local
benefits!
NIMBY-proof!
Terrorist-proof!
Hurricane-proof!
Hugo Chavez-proof!
Easy to install: no wires or pipes!
100% NOx and SOx-free!
Legal everywhere, and Yucca-free!
Bird / Bat-friendly!
Good-looking!
More Popular Every Day!
17
Challenging Reliable, Affordable, Clean
Regulators care about resource adequacy above all, demand is growing & new supply is tough to get.
The “golden era” of declining prices is probably over, and some big bills are coming due.
Maintenance and planned expansion investments are worth 2x the existing system.
Climate is a smaller factor than we thought.
Is the future one of massive stranded investment?
“We cannot solve the most serious problems using the same thinking that created them.”
- Albert Einstein
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Conclusions
State regulators play a broad role with wide-ranging responsibilities
Regulatory policy is an important driver for what the grid looks like
Technology is shifting, but maybe not the technologies we think
The hybrid of markets and vertical integration are here to stay
Climate caps are out, but we’re still decarbonizing
With some huge spending coming, we need to make as many no-regrets choices as possible.
I Will Now Confront
Your Most Challenging Questions!
Or! Later if you prefer!
Miles Keogh, 202-898-2217 mkeogh@naruc.org
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