climate recap and outlook nate mantua, phd university of washington climate impacts group nate...

Climate recap and outlookClimate recap and outlook

Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of WashingtonClimate Impacts Group

Nate Mantua, PhDUniversity of WashingtonClimate Impacts Group

The Climate Impacts Group

• Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change

• Supported by NOAA Climate Program

http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

3

Current drought

5

Accumulated Precip for the past year

Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/

precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year

Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/

precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

Accumulated Precip for the past yearAccumulated Precip for the past year

Source:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/

precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

Daily TemperaturesDaily Temperatures

+.51ºC+.51ºC +1.16ºC+1.16ºC

Last year’s outlook

Last year’s outlook

tropical ocean

temperatures:

a weak El Niño is underway

Multi-model forecast summary

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DJF temp 2004-05

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JFM temp

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FMA temp

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Nov precip

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DJF precip 2004-05

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JFM precip

NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 16, 2004

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FMA precip

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Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 24-Oct

22 2005

The PDO has been less

prominent since the early

1990s-present

From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research

Letters, Vol 30: 2183-2186.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/~spillane/npac/NPAC-WinterSST.html

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

leading patterns of N. Pac. SST since 1950

PDO

“Victoria Pattern”

PDO index

Victoria pattern

index

• The PDO pattern was strong from 1950s through the 1980s• The Victoria pattern was strong + from the 1999 through 2003• In the winter of 2004-2005 North Pacific SSTs similar to the average from 1992-1995From Bond et al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30: 2183-

2186.

Phase plot for the 2 leading patterns of

North Pacific wintertime SSTs (5

yr avgs)

50s-mid70s

late 70s/late

80s

x 2005x 2005

1999/2003

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Tropical climate and ENSO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

25http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/

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Oct 12 NOAA CPC ENSO forecasts

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

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IRI ENSO Forecast Summary

• Forecasts from October 2005 call for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figure

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Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary

•Current forecasts rate ENSO-neutral as most likely situation for fall-winter 2005/06

•PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate)

•Expect very weak warm phase PDO conditions for fall/winter •PDO = +0.2 to +0.6 st devs for Nino34 = -0.2 to +0.6

•A Note on Last year…

July-June averages Forecast Observed

Nino3.4 index

+0.4 to +1.2

+0.61

PDO index

+0.5 to +1.0

+0.65

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DJF temp 2005-06

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JFM temp 2006

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FMA temp 2006

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NOAA CPC Precipitation Forecasts

The Bottom line from CPC

The Bottom line from CPC

•“[BECAUSE ENSO IS WEAK] ALL FORECASTS REFLECT INTERDECADAL TREND MORE THAN ANY OTHER FACTOR”

• above-average winter temperature is likely

See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html