climate change copenhagen discord climate change copenhagen discord walter mendoza february...
Post on 01-Apr-2015
218 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change
Copenhagen Discord
Climate Change
Copenhagen Discord
Walter Mendoza
February DialoguesFireflies AshramFebruary 17, 2010
The basis in Science
The latest is the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report,
"Climate Change 2007".
AR4
The basis in Science
Nobel Peace Prize 2007
Al Gore and IPCC
• Net CO2 emissions = 7.9 GtC/yr
• Net CO2 intake capacity = 3.1 GtC/yr
• Excess CO2 emissions = 4.8 GtC/yr, 55% more than intake capacity
Total and per capita emissions
8
Ca
na
da
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Bra
zil
Gu
ya
na
Ge
rma
ny
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Ru
ss
ia
Ke
ny
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ta
nza
nia
Au
str
ali
a
Ba
ng
lad
es
h
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Ja
pa
n
Ne
pa
l
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Va
nu
atu
0.1
1
0.1
1
19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
World average 4 tonnes per person per yearCan sustain 2 tonnes per person per year
Ca
na
da
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Bra
zil
Gu
ya
na
Ge
rma
ny
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Ru
ss
ia
Ke
ny
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ta
nza
nia
Au
str
ali
a
Ba
ng
lad
es
h
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Ja
pa
n
Ne
pa
l
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Va
nu
atu
0.1
1
0.1
1
19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
Who?
As is GHG dumping
Ca
na
da
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Bra
zil
Gu
ya
na
Ge
rma
ny
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Ru
ss
ia
Ke
ny
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ta
nza
nia
Au
str
ali
a
Ba
ng
lad
es
h
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Ja
pa
n
Ne
pa
l
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Va
nu
atu
0.1
1
0.1
1
19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
Reduce – to converge
Ca
na
da
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Bra
zil
Gu
ya
na
Ge
rma
ny
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Ru
ss
ia
Ke
ny
a
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ta
nza
nia
Au
str
ali
a
Ba
ng
lad
es
h
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
Ja
pa
n
Ne
pa
l
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Va
nu
atu
0.1
1
0.1
1
19.2420.14
1.94 2.07
10.24
16.44
9.55
11.88
0.28
9.56
20.24
0.28
4.07
1.07
9.65 9.37
0.46
4.37
2.00
Increase to convergeClimate justice
Equity
THE POLITICS
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
191 countries have ratified the Convention
recognizes that the climate system is a shared resource
it is a Framework for Intergovernmental efforts to* gather and share information
greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices
* launch national strategiesfor addressing greenhouse gas emissions and
adapting to expected impacts,* cooperate in preparing for adaptation
to the impacts of climate changeincluding the provision of financial and technological support
to developing countries
THE POLITICS
COP1 -The Berlin Mandate 1995
Common but Differentiated responsibilities
Developing countries refused to take up binding commitments
Two year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP)
to address the original goal of the convention - to stabilize GHG emissions by Annex 1 countries at 1990 levels by
2000
THE POLITICS
The Kyoto Protocol It is a protocol to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeThe Kyoto Protocol is a legally binding agreement
under which industrialized countries will reduce their collective
emissions of greenhouse gasesby 5.2% compared to the year 1990
calculated as an average over the five-yearcommitment period of 2008-12
The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005.
THE POLITICS
Flexible Mechanisms
CDMs
THE POLITICS
COP13 - Bali 2007
The Bali Action Plan:
Twin track Process
IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40% < 1990 levels
THE POLITICS
COP 14 at Poznan, Poland
The National Action Plan on Climate ChangeIndia
Key issues for Copenhagen
350 / 450? ppm
2°C / 1.5°C
ISSUES INVOLVED
• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries
ISSUES INVOLVED
• Industrial countries responsible for Climate change phenomenon. Over 80% of C02 emissions in the atmosphere for the last 150 years have come from richer countries
• bogey
increased CO2 likely from newly industrialised countries
• elephant in the room
population!
ISSUES INVOLVED
• Inadequate current reduction targets compared to urgency of the problem
IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40%
EU : 20% - 30%
US : 17%
Japan : 25%
ISSUES INVOLVED
• Fudging on theCUT OFF – BASE Year:
IPCC – Bali : 25% - 40% 1990EU : 20% - 30% 2000?US : 17% 2005Japan : 25% 1990
ISSUES INVOLVED
• Total emissions – per capita emissions
bogey
India and China among the top five emitters – total emissions
total emissions today
Copenhagen Discord
Copenhagen Discord
28
Role of Civil Society Today?
Role of Civil Society
• Significant Role in the run-up to Kyoto
CAN
CSE
• Then commercial interests took over
The Corporation!It is an entity!
It has the rights of an individual
The buck stops with this entity
But the power, the benefits, and the freedom go to the individuals behind these entities
Role of Civil Society
As a result today there is a divide:
International NGOs vs Third World NGOs
Policy / Advocacy NGOs vis a vis Grassroots
beyond Marx and Capitalism
• poverty and oppression are issues of power
• poverty is technology and finance gone haywire
• development causes poverty
IMPLICATIONS• Inequity is growing as theRe-define development:
Traditionally, Development = growth + equity + social justice.
trickle down theory has failed
Percent income
Richest 25% Middle 50% Poorest 25%
1860 58% 30% 12%
1913 69% 25% 6%
1960 72% 25% 3%
Richest 20% Middle 60% Poorest 20%
2000 74% 24% 2%
beyond Marx and Capitalism
Structural Change
The overthrow of oppressive, exploitative structures
Structural AdjustmentAdjusting to reality, pragmatic programmesManaging problems – transfer of technology, knowhow
beyond Marx and Capitalism
Structural Transformation
beyond Marx and Capitalism
Structural Transformationeconomic, cultural, social,
political and spiritual institutions
that reflect thevoices and power of the marginalized
beyond Marx and Capitalism
Structural Transformation
• we have myriads of initiatives and experiments across the country, sub-continet, the world
• they are isolated, random, dispersed
beyond Marx and Capitalism
Structural Transformation
• we need a myriad democratised intermediary level institutions that link these initiatives
• Focus on entitlements and capabilities
beyond Marx and Capitalism
Structural Transformation• democracy is the answer to poverty and
scarcity
China is no model – it is an extreme imitation of all that has gone wrong with the west
• democracy is giving voice and action to the marginalized
DecentralisationLayers of Autonomy
local, regional, national, (international)
based on Entitlements and Capabilities
Implies recognition of
local traditions - knowledge, technology skills, culture, …
democratization of science, technology and finance
neither only bottom-up; or top down
beyond Marx and Capitalism
Structural Transformation
• in structural transformation – the independent, autonomous quest for alternatives it’s a subversive function – satyagraha
Our participation in
Structural Transformation
We are part of the problemurban
high transaction costs
excessive mobility
high consumption
conduits of the top-down approach
We can be part of the solutiondealing with our own carbon footprint
respect for the dignity of local capabilities
be the intersection facilitating the cross flow of information, knowledge and other resources
urban resource: decentralised, democratised
beyond Marx and CapitalismLearning from Gandhi
• Gandhi's voluntarism was a major shift in voluntarism practiced in traditional Indian society.
• It emphasized empowerment and transformation of society and acquired a political content.
• However, these voluntary initiatives had none of the organizational characters to classify them as modern.
Structural Transformation
let us be part of the Solutionwith
conviction
commitment
and compassion
This is true satyagraha
Thank You
top related