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Climate Change and Arizona’s Rangelands: Management

Challenges and Opportunities

Climate Change and Arizona’s Rangelands: Management

Challenges and Opportunities

Mike CrimminsClimate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science &

Arizona Cooperative ExtensionThe University of Arizona

Mike CrimminsClimate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science &

Arizona Cooperative ExtensionThe University of Arizona

Presentation Overview

• Arizona Climate & Range Management

• Important Concepts in Arizona Climatology

• Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers

“Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” – Mark Twain

Arizona Climate and Resource Management

• Diverse types of rangelands (grasslands forested areas)

• Quick response to changing conditions (species specific adaptations and strategies)

• Complex interactions between native/invasive species, disturbances, soil types, current and past management actions AND climate.

Arizona Climate and Resource Management

Climate variability is important at many different scales

• Interannual variability, timing, duration, intensity of precipitation events

• Spatial coverage of precipitation• Interactions between temperature and

precipitation• Climate-related disturbances (e.g. wildfire,

insects, drought stress)

VegetationResponse

(growth, phenology,recruitment

Precipitation(seasonality, duration,

intensity, frequency)

Temperature(growing season length, freezing

events)

Wind(seed dispersal,

erosion, evapotrans.)

Landscape Features(Soils, topography,

veg structure,nutrient fluxes)

Ecological Climatology

Relative Humidity(evapotranspiration,diurnal temp. range)

Solar Radiation(photosynthetic rates,

evapotrans.)

Arizona Climate and Resource Management

Tools/methods/strategies to reduce climate sensitivities

• Management options(?)• Introduction of non-native species to

increase cover (impacts on biodiversity, changing fire regimes)

• Other options??

Important Concepts in Arizona Climatology

Seasonality: Arizona Temperature and Precipitation

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jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

prec

ip (i

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p (F

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Precip (in.) Temp (F)

Seasonal Precipitation Totals

Dec-Jan-Feb-MarJuly-Aug-SeptApr-May-JunOct-Nov

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1904 1909 1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Prec

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Variability and Trend: Annual Precipitation Anomaly

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

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Arizona statewide average annual total precipitation anomaly, long-term average: 12 inches

Variability and Trend: Annual Average Temperature

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1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual A

vera

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empe

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5-year moving average

Arizona statewide average annual temperature, long-term average: 59.7 F

Long-term average

Importance of considering precipitation AND temperature

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1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

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(mm

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temp ppt

Dry Periods: PET>Precip

Wet Periods: Precip>PET

Annual Average Statewide Total Precipitation and Temperature for Arizona

1950’s drought 1980’s ENSOEvents

Local Soil-Climate-Vegetation Interactions

Annual Average Statewide Total Precipitation and Temperature for Arizona

Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers

• Monitoring & Diagnostic Tools– Range monitoring/climate

data research & product development

– Better drought impact assessments?

– Better monitoring of precipitation?

– RangeView with climate information, Southwest Climate Outlook

Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers

• Seasonal Forecasts– Highest confidence with

ENSO and winter precipitation– Monsoon season forecasts

very difficult to make (weak teleconnections with ENSO, U.S. snow pack, soil moisture status)

– How could seasonal forecasts be better utilized for range management?

Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers

From: ISPE Southwest Regional Assessment

• Climate Change Projections– Dealing with uncertainty– More confidence in temperature projections than precipitation– Changes in variability, seasonality, extreme event frequencies

Climate Variability and Change: Tools for Range Managers

• Integration with land management practices and ecological concepts/models– How can climate information

be better integrated in range management decision making?

– What new information is needed?

– Can existing information be better utilized?

Closing Points• Rangelands are especially sensitive to

climate variability and change• Complex climate at many different scales

through time and over space• Opportunities to develop new ways of

thinking about climate in range management (new tools, information, and conceptual models)

Thank You!

http://cals.arizona.edu/climate