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Clima de Sudamérica y Chile
Cambio Climático
Curso Biogeografía de Chile
Instituto de sistemas complejos de Valparaíso
20 octubre 2009
Introduction
● The 2013 rainfall regime in central Chile
● The “future” of global surface temperature at four times in the past
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Ene
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Abr
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Ago
Sep Oct
Nov Dic
2013
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Pre
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Precip. DiariaClimatología (1981-2010)Año 2013
SANTIAGO (33.5ºS)
Actualizado al 29 de Noviembre de 2013
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Ene
Feb
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Ma
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Sep Oct
Nov Dic
2013
Pre
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Pre
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(m
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Precip. DiariaClimatología (1981-2010)
Año 2013
TEMUCO (38.8ºS)
Actualizado al 29 de Noviembre de 2013
Rainfall regime 2013
Blue: accumulated (climatology)
Red: accumulated 2013
Black: rainfall episodes
Data source: Goddard Institute por Space Studies - NASA
Global land-ocean surface temperature anomalies (Ref.: 1951 – 1980 mean)
°C x 100
Global land-ocean surface temperature anomalies (Ref.: 1951 – 1980 mean)
Data source: Goddard Institute por Space Studies - NASA
°C x 100
Global land-ocean surface temperature anomalies (Ref.: 1951 – 1980 mean)
Data source: Goddard Institute por Space Studies - NASA
°C x 100
Global land-ocean surface temperature anomalies (Ref.: 1951 – 1980 mean)
Data source: Goddard Institute por Space Studies - NASA
°C x 100
Global land-ocean surface temperature anomalies (Ref.: 1951 – 1980 mean)
Data source: Goddard Institute por Space Studies - NASA
°C x 100
“Cimate hiatus” in the evolution of land-ocean surface temperature anomalies in the Northern (NH) and Southern (SH) Hemispheres during the period 1998 - 2013
°C x 100
Source: Goddard Institute por Space Studies – NASA http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Anomalies calculated from the corresponding 1951-1980 means.
2. Future climate scenarios in Chile (2071 – 2100)
Future global climate scenarios are built using mathematical models (Atmosphere – Ocean General Circulation Models) that simulate the dynamic and thermodynamic behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans in response to an intensification of the greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic factors.
Fundamental tool to project global climate in the future
AOGCM : Atmosphere – Ocean General Circulation Model
Source: IPCC 2007 executive summary
● = 90% de los modelos concuerdan
Changes in rainfall projected by AOGCM’s for the last part of 21st century
Austral summer (Dec – Mar) Austral winter (Jun – Aug)
Dots indicate regions where more than 90% of the models agree.
Simulation of Regional future climate scenarios
Regional climate models (RCM’s) are used to improve the spacial resolution. Border conditions are prescribed by the output of a global climate model (AOGCM).
In the 2006 study by the Department of Geophysics (U. de Chile) for the National Comission for the Environment (CONAMA) it was used the RCM PRECIS, developed by the Hadley Center (UK – Meteorological Office).
AOGCMHadley Centre CoupledModel, v 3 (HadCM3)
Hadley CentreUK – Met. Office
RCM
Model PRECIS
Hadley CentreUK – Met. Office
A2
B2
Global emissions of CO2 projected for the XXI century, associated to several scenarios of global development (Source: IPCC Report, 2006)
Spacial domain of the RCM PRECIS applied for the definitions of future climate scenarios in Chile
Resolution: 25 x 25 km
Source: DGF – U. de Chile. Report to CONAMA.
Methodology
The regional climate was simulated for the period 1961 – 1990 (to represent the current climate) and for the period 2071 – 2100 (to represent future conditions associated to an intensified greenhouse effect).
The difference (or the quotient) between the two simulations was calculated at each grid point.
1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 > 5 expected change (ºC)
summer winter
A2
B2
Expected changes in surface air temperature precribed by the RCM PRECIS for the period 2071 - 2100 with respect to conditions during 1961 - 1990.
Source: DGF – U. de Chile. Report to CONAMA.
Summer (DJF) Winter (JJA)
A2
B2
Expected changes in seasonal rainfall prescribed by the RCM PRECIS for the period 2071 -2100 with respect to conditions during 1961 - 1990.
Source: DGF – U. de Chile. Report to CONAMA.
Expected changes in hydrological regimes of Andean basins in central Chile
Present Climate Future Climate
H 0°C
WINTER CONDITIONS
- Overall warmer and drier conditions in central Chile
- Higher elevation of isotherm 0°C
- Area receiving rainfall will increase
- Snow accumulation over mountains will decrease
Future climate
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1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Basin: San Ramón – Santiago (33.5ºS) Area: 38 km2
Percentage of the total basin area receiving rainfall (instead of snowfall) during winter storms, depending of the elevation of isotherm 0ºC (H0)
Elevation of isotherm 0ºC (H0)
Mean value of H0 during 624 rainy days in Santiago in Jun. – Sep., 1958 – 1987
+2ºC warmer climate
+4ºC warmer climate
Observed annual cycle
1961–1990
2071- 00 (A2)
SIMULATING DISCHARGE OF RIVER MAULE IN CENTRAL CHILESIMULATING DISCHARGE OF RIVER MAULE IN CENTRAL CHILE
In the A2 scenario, PRECIS anticipates significant changes in the discharge of river In the A2 scenario, PRECIS anticipates significant changes in the discharge of river Maule, both in the annual mean and in the seasonality, due to reduction of the area Maule, both in the annual mean and in the seasonality, due to reduction of the area covered with snow in winter.covered with snow in winter.
3. How is the climate changing in Chile
Climate trends…
Linear trend in SST (ºC/28 años) during the period 1978-2004
TSM @ 40°S 75°W
Ref: Garreaud y Falvey, 2008
Composites of annual mean anomaly of daily maximum and minimun temperature at stations Antofagasta, Copiapó, Vallenar y La Serena (1961 – 2004), in northern Chile.
ANTOFAGASTA
COPIAPO
VALLENAR
LA SERENA
Vertical cross-section of the annual temperature anomaly in Antofagasta (23.6º S) from 1958 to 2004
Height (a.s.l) of isotherm 0ºC
Vertical cross-section of the annual temperature anomaly in Puerto Montt (42ºS) from 1958 to 2004.
Height (a.s.l) of isotherm 0ºC
Trend (°C/decade) in the mean annual values of daily maximum and minimum temperature from 1976 to 2003.
Latitude °S
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Data source: Chilean Weather Service (DMC)
Maximum temperature
Minimum temperature
CURICO (35°S). Número de heladas de otoño y primavera en periodos móvilesde 10 años
Abr - May
Sep - Oct
Trend in annual rainfall expressed as percentual change per decade
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54
1950 - 2000
1970 - 2000
Lat. (ºS)
Source: Quintana & Aceituno, 2008
%/decade
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1900
1910
1920
1930
194
0
1950
196
0
1970
198
0
1990
200
0
2010
G3 (33.7ºS)
G4 (35.0ºS)
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,61
900
191
0
192
0
1930
194
0
195
0
196
0
197
0
1980
1990
2000
201
0
G1 (30.0ºS)
G2 (32.5ºS)
11-years moving averages of standardized regional rainfall indices (ref. 1971 – 2000)
Ref: Quintana & Aceituno, 2009
11-years moving averages of standardized regional rainfall indices (ref. 1971 – 2000)
Ref: Quintana & Aceituno, 2009
1500
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3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Annual rainfall at Puerto Aysen (1930 – 2007)
4.- Looking backward: the 1877-78 global climate anomaly
Source: Aceituno et al., 2009
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,81
860
187
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1880
189
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190
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19
10
1920
19
30
1940
195
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196
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1970
1980
199
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ºC
Source: Climate Research Unit. University of East Anglia
Mean global temperature anomaly for October – March Ref: 1961 - 1990
1877 - 1878
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3 region (3 – month averages)
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,01
876
1877
1878
187
9
Sources: SOI: Bureau of Meteorology – Australia; SST: Hadley Center
1876 1877 1878 1879
SST SOI
Monsoon failed in 1877. Rainfall in India was 3 standard deviations below average (Kiladis and Díaz, 1986)
SLP anomaly in January 1878
15 – 25 million people died in India and northern China during the period 1877-79, as result of drought and associated diseases. By 1879 one third of the population had died in the Shanxi province in N. China (Davis, 2001)
Severe drought hit Indonesia and the Philipines. Less that 1/3 of normal rainfall was measured at Jakarta from May 1877 to Feb. 1878 (Kiladis and Diaz, 1986)
Famine, forest fires and death of trees due to an intense drought (Goldammer et al, 1990)
SLP anomaly in January 1878
Anomalously low level reported for the Nile river in 1877 (Mossman, 1914). Food shortage in Egypt.
Severe drought in Sudan led to starvation of about 1/3 of the population in some regions (Biography of St.
D. Comboni).
Severe drought in Southern Africa in 1877
Regions with ENSO-related rainfall anomalies
Sources for information on climate anomalies in 1877 - 1878
Direct information from rainfall measurements
Indirect information from newspapers, historical reports, and other sources
Central Chile
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90018
66
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Annual rainfall at Santiago – Chile (1866 – 1900)mm
Asunciòn
Corrientes
Santa Fe
Rosario
Buenos Aires
Average discharge of Parana river at Corrientes = 18,500 m3/s
Uruguay river
Paraná riverParaguay river
SE of South America
Floods in SE South America during El Niño episodes
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
1812 1858 1878 1905 1966 1983 1992 1998
Mayor floods of the Paraná River. Maximum water level at Corrientes (m)
Sources: Subsecretaría de Recursos hídricos, Argentina and Depettris and Rohrmann, 1998
En Santa Fe el nivel máximo se alcanzó el 18 May. 1878. La inundación duró 6 meses (entre 12 Febrero y el 13 Agosto 1878 )
Altiplano
Fuente: Información recopilada por Alejandra Martínez (Inst. Geofísico del Perú)
Puno: La falta de aguaceros ha causado un daño irreparable a la agricultura, así que las cosechas serán malas, habrá mortandad en la ganadería y el año será de una escasez abrumadoraEl Comercio, Lima, 13 Abril 1877
Puno: Va a terminar el malhadado 77 dejando un reguero de penurias y sufri-mientos, que tienen visos de prolongarse indefinidamente… la ganadería en deca-dencia, los empleados muriéndose de hambre y un malestar en todas las clases sociales son los caracteres bien acen-tuados del año que va a concluir.Published in a local newspaper in Dec. 1877 and reproduced by El Comercio, Lima, in 2 January 1878
Impacts of the 1877/ 78 El Niño in the Peruvian Altiplano
Cochabamba
Source: Pentimalli and Rodríguez. Las razones de la multitud (hambruna, motines y subsistencia: 1878-78 in Estado y Sociedad, 1988, La Paz – Bolivia, FLACSO
Impacts of the 1877/78 El Niño in the Bolivian Altiplano
Rainfall deficit started by the end of 1877 and persisted throughout 1878 generating a dramatic drought that reduced the wheat and maize harvest by half.
Famine and starvation was reported during 1878, aggravated by the outbreak of associated diseases and epidemics
Precio de cereales (pesos/fanega) en Cochabamba - Bolivia
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80
J A J O J A J O J A J O
wheatmaize
1877 1878 1879
Source: El Heraldo, Cochabamba, citado por Pentimalli and Rodriguez (Estado y Sociedad, 1988, La Paz – Bolivia, FLACSO
0
100
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600
J A J O J A J O
1878 1879
Source: El Heraldo, Cochabamba (12 Dic. 1879), citado por Pentimalli and Rodriguez en Estado y Sociedad, 1988, La Paz – Bolivia, FLACSO
Registered monthly deaths at Cochabamba – Bolivia during 1878 and 1879
Cochabamba
Impacts of the 1877/78 El Niño in Bolivia
According to information published in a local newspaper (El Heraldo), around 30% of the indian population in the province of Cochabamba died in 1878.
Riots and looting were reported in Tarata, Sucre and Cochabamba during 1878.
Peasants migrated toward major cities or to other regions to escape drought.
Brazil Nordeste
400
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mm
Ref: Moura and Shukla, 1981
Annual mean rainfall overNortheast Brazil
Quixeramobim
Fortaleza
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350
J F M A M J J A S O N D
1460 mm
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
765 mm
Annual rainfall regime in Northeast Brazil
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1876 1877 1878 1879 1880
-64% -64% -62%
El Niño 1877 - 1878
Monthly rainfall at Fortaleza (Ceara – Brazil) from 1876 to 1880
The 1877-79 drought in NE. Brazil…
Source: Villa M.A., 2000: Life and death in the Sertao: History of Nordeste droughts during the XIX and XX centuries (in portuguese).
By the end of 1877 around 2 million people (“retirantes” or “flagelados”) had fled the dry interior (Sertao) creating a huge social and sanitary crisis in coastal cities (looting, increased prostitution, corruption, food black market.. etc.).
For those that remained in the interior, the hunger was so extreme that some cases of cannibalism were reported.
In September 1878, of the 130.000 inhabitants in Fortaleza, 110.000 were “retirantes”.
A smallpox epidemic started in September 1878 killing around 30.000 people
1877 – 78 drought, Ceara - Brazil (J.A. Correa)
Fuente: Villa M.A., 2000: Life and death in the Sertao: History of Nordeste droughts during the XIX and XX centuries (in portuguese).
The 1877-79 drought in NE. Brazil…
Thousands of people migrated toward the Amazon attracted by the flourishing rubber industry, initiating a migratory pattern that intensified in forthcoming droughts, although mainly directed towards major cities in the South (Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo)
The local economy experienced some permanent changes. Drought resulted in livestock (cattle) losses in the hundreds of thousands, and the cotton industry collapsed.
It is estimated that when the drought was over in 1880, around 500.000 people had died of starvation and associated diseases (5% of the Brazilian population).
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
+1.0
+2.0
+3.0
?Global temperature anomaly
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