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CFA INSTITUTE
RESEARCH CHALLENGE
CFA SOCIETY OF PHILADELPHIA
KICKOFF LUNCHEON
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
3:00 PM
TODAY’S PRESENTERS
Kenn Lamson, CFA
Portfolio Analytics Consultant, Vanguard
“Research Challenge Overview”
Peter Maher, CFA
Analyst, Investments, The Board of Pensions of the Presbyterian Church U.S.A.
“Ethics and Code of Standards”
Timothy Hoyle, CFA
Vice President, Research, The Haverford Trust Company
“How to Write a Research Paper”
Tom Kelly
Senior Vice President, Crown Holdings (Subject Company)
“Company Overview”
2
CFA SOCIETY OF PHILADELPHIA: A FOUNDING
MEMBER OF THE CFA INSTITUTE
4
Highlights:
• Started in 1943
• 2,000 Members
• 7th Largest North American
Society
• Provides a Variety of Social
and Educational Events
• CFA Prep Provider
Membership comprised of:
CFA Charter Holders
Adjunct Professionals
Students
THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS OF THE
RESEARCH CHALLENGE:
5
Contact: Wayne Pasternack
Phone: (212) 617 3606
E-mail: wpasternack@bloomberg.net
2012 GLOBAL CHAMPIONS
Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand
Representing the CFA Society Thailand
6
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WHAT IS THE CFA INSTITUTE RESEARCH
CHALLENGE?
• How is it organized?
- Worldwide intercollegiate competition
between teams of students
- Organized through CFA member
societies
- At least 4 teams of 3-5 students
participate
• What does it involve?
- Analysis of a publicly-traded company
- Interviews with company management
- Mentoring by a CFA charter holder
- Research report writing
- Presentation of research
8
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2012 RESEARCH CHALLENGE NETWORK
9
2013 TOURNAMENT DIAGRAM
10
90+ LOCAL LEVEL CHALLENGES
AP
Regional
19 Teams
EMEA
Regional
25 Teams
Americas
Regional
48 Teams
New York
Regional
24 Teams
Global Final
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BENEFITS FOR STUDENTS
• Best practices in research and report writing
• Real-life learning experience as an Equity Analyst
• Access and exposure to leading industry professionals
• Professional report and experience to use on resume/CV and job interviews
• Experience presenting to top financial professionals
• Individual and team prizes
• Opportunity for travel
• Potential for media exposure
• Network of over 10,000 students and 2,500 volunteers worldwide
12
THERE ARE NINE PARTICIPATING TEAMS FROM THE
PHILADELPHIA REGION IN THIS YEAR’S RESEARCH
CHALLENGE:
13
University: Industry Mentor
Delaware State University Charlie DyReyes
Drexel University Michael Martorelli
Rider University Cynthia Jones
Scranton University Todd Sclanger
St. Joseph’s University Andre D’Amico
Villanova University Lee Grout
Temple University Edward Hickey
University of Pennsylvania Kelley McKee
Widener University Sorin Roibu
Thank you to our volunteer Industry Mentors for their involvement.
COMPETITION TIMELINE
14
Today Kick-Off
Next 10 days Preliminary Research
Register with CFA Institute
12/14/2012 1st Draft Due to Mentor
1/11/2013 Final Report Due
Interim Report Grading
2/21/2013 Local Final Presentations
3/21/2013 Regional Final
4/12/2013 Global Final
RULES OVERVIEW
• Each team consists of 3-5 students (undergraduate or graduate)
• Only one team may represent each university
• Students must be enrolled in the university they represent and registered for at least a part-time course load at the time of the kickoff meeting
• Reports and presentations must be the students’ original work
• Students may not have contact with the subject company outside of organized events
• Students may not enlist the help of any professionals other than the mentor or faculty advisor
• Mentors and faculty may NOT contact
the company
• Mentors, faculty, and subject company
may NOT provide material non-public
information
• Written reports must conform to the
guidelines set forth by CFA Institute
and include the cover and back pages
provided by CFA Institute
• Teams may not use props in their oral
presentations
• Students, mentors, and faculty must all
agree to abide by the CFA Institute
Code of Ethics and Standards of
Professional Conduct
15
ADVISOR AND MENTOR INVOLVEMENT
Faculty Advisor
• Insight and guidance on research
methods and tools as taught in
academia
• 10 hours maximum of productive
time
• Access to faculty for other projects
unrelated to the Research Challenge
is permitted
• All work must be the original work of
the students
Industry Mentor
• Insight and guidance on industry
practice
• 6 hours maximum of productive time
• Face to face or virtual
• Company management question
development
• Review first draft of research report
• Presentation development
assistance
16
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ETHICS RESOURCES
• Ethical Standards for Investment
Professionals: An Interactive Case-
Based Course
• Ethics Course Module 2: Standard
II—Integrity of Capital Markets
• Ethics Course Module 3: Standard
III—Duties to Clients
• Ethics Course Module 6: Standard
VI—Conflicts of Interest
• Ethics Course Module 7: Standard
VII—Responsibilities as a CFA
Institute Member or CFA Candidate
17
REPORT SCORING
19
Section
Maximum
Points Comments
Research Report Evaluation Form
Business Description 5 Lack of sufficient information to support recommendation.
Industry Overview &
Competitive Positioning 15
Not a comprehensive understanding of the company's positioning and/or competitors. No
understanding of company's economic advantage, Overstated company's advantage - not
grounded in facts.
Investment Summary 20 Not logical. No or insufficient summary of salient points. Strategy is not grounded in financials.
Valuation 20 Method is flawed. Not substantiated with industry information.
Financial Analysis 20
Flawed assumptions. Too many errors in financial analysis. Financial analysis does not support
conclusion.
Investment Risks 15 Missed too many important risk items. Risk and conclusion are not logical.
Other Headings 5 Missed important information available.
Total 100
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PRESENTATION SCORING
20
OUR SUBJECT
COMPANY:
“Crown Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, is a leading supplier of
packaging products to consumer marketing companies around the world.
World headquarters are located in Philadelphia, PA.”
www.crowncork.com
Thank you to Crown Holdings for its participation in the Research Challenge!
21
INTERACTING WITH CROWN HOLDINGS
22
• Designated officers ONLY
• Organized communications ONLY
• Industry mentor or faculty advisor
must be present for all student-
subject company interactions
• Students may contact and survey
company suppliers, customers,
vendors, etc.
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WHERE TO BEGIN
• Visit the CFA Institute Research Challenge website: www.researchchallenge.org
- Register for the competition
- Peruse educational materials selected specifically for participants
- Watch videos of past presentations
- View past reports from winning teams
• Communicate with your assigned mentor
• Check the CFA Institute website for a timeline of the competition
23
Ethics & Code of Standards
Peter Maher, CFA
Analyst, Investments
The Board of Pensions of the Presbyterian
Church U.S.A.
CODE OF ETHICS
• Act with integrity, competence, diligence,
respect, and in an ethical manner—public,
clients, prospects, employers, employees,
colleagues.
• Integrity of investment profession and client
interests above personal interests.
•Reasonable care, independent professional
judgment when conducting analysis, making
recommendations, taking investment actions,
and in other professional activities.
• Practice, encourage others…in a professional,
ethical manner…reflect credit on themselves
and profession.
CODE OF ETHICS
• Promote integrity; uphold rules governing
capital markets.
• Maintain, improve professional competence,
and strive to do the same for other investment
professionals.
CODE OF ETHICS
STANDARDS OF
PROFESSIONAL CONDUCT
I. Professionalism
II. Integrity of Capital Markets
III. Duties to Clients
IV. Duties to Employers
V. Investment Analysis, Recommendations,
and Actions
VI. Conflicts of Interest
VII. Responsibilities as a CFA Institute Member
or CFA Candidate
ETHICS
• Professionalism:
- Knowledge of the law
- Independence and Objectivity
- Misrepresentation
- Misconduct
ETHICS
• Duties to Clients:
- Loyalty, Prudence and Care
- Fair Dealing
- Suitability
- Performance Presentation
- Preservation of Confidentiality
ETHICS
•Duties to Employers:
-Loyalty
-Additional Compensation Arrangements
-Responsibilities of Supervisors
ETHICS
• Investment Analysis, Recommendations,
Actions:
- Diligence and Reasonable Basis
- Communication with Clients
- Record Retention
ETHICS
- Conflicts of Interest:
- Disclosure of Conflicts
- Priority of Transactions
- Referral Fees
ETHICS
• Responsibilities of CFA Members and
Candidates:
- Conduct of Members and Candidates
- Reference to the designation
How to Write an
Equity Research
Report
Timothy Hoyle, CFA
Vice President, Research
The Haverford Trust Company
PURPOSE OF A RESEARCH REPORT
• What is the purpose of a research report?
- Provide...
- Relevant content
- Unique insight and perspective
... that will enable the reader to make an improved decision
• What is it not?
- Data dump
- Value the reader’s time; use your space thoughtfully
- More is not better... better is better. Data should be useful and easy to read
- Inaccurate
- You want conviction... but where possible let facts do the heavy lifting.
- Don’t publish misleading information; seek economic truth!
KEY ELEMENTS OF A REPORT
• Investment Summary
• Business Description
• Industry Overview
• Competitive Positioning
• Financial Analysis & Trends
• Valuation - Methods and Model Assumptions
• Investment Merits and Risks
• Other Relevant Topics
INVESTMENT SUMMARY (20PTS)
• In a handful of bullets, describe:
- the key tenets of the investment thesis;
- fair value and the expected return
- the company’s business model;
- the key risks to shareholders;
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION (5PTS)
• Reader should get a brief intro - What do they do?
- How do they make money (manufacturer, brand franchise, professional service, distributor, risk transfer, innovation, etc.)
- Changes in business mix/profile?
- Who are their customers? - Business, consumer, government, etc.
- How do they reach their customers? - Brick and mortar, direct sales, internet, catalog, etc.
- Where do they operate? - Domestic, international (developed countries, emerging markets), etc.
• Other - Major segments - Financial profile (growth rates, margins, leverage, cash flow) - Major recent developments worth mentioning
INDUSTRY & COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW (15PTS)
• Target addressable market(s) - Current and future growth rates - Industry life cycle
• Market characteristics - Monopoly, Duopoly, Oligopoly - Global, regional, or local marketplace
• Key industry demand drivers
- End markets - Secular vs. cyclical trends
• Industry trends
- Globalization - Consolidation - Regulatory oversight
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
• What differentiates competitors? - Cost structure, scale, product/service quality, technology, intellectual
capital (human, patents), customer relationship, geography, etc.
• Porter’s Five Forces... he was onto something! - Rivalry – industry structure, S/D dynamics, fixed vs variable costs, exit barriers
- New entrants – barriers to entry (scale, capex, patents, product differentiation, etc)
- Substitutes – switching cost, relative price and quality
- Buyer power – concentration, product differentiation, integration threat, switching
cost, co-dependence
- Supplier power – similar to buyer power... • Market share
- Market participants’ market share
- Historical and projected gains/losses
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS (20PTS)
• Historical and Projected IS / BS / CFS
- Margins (gross, EBITDA, EBIT, net, etc.) and growth rates
- ROA / ROE / ROIC
- Cash flow (OCF, FCF; per share and margin) - Sources (OCF, divestitures, share/debt issuance, etc) and Uses (Divvy, share/debt
repo, acquisitions, capex) of cash - Working Capital (cash conversion cycle; % of sales)
- Leverage (D/EBITDA, DTC, etc.)
- Capital requirements & Liquidity
- Current/quick/cash ratio; covenants and debt maturity schedule
- Appreciate the difference between liquidity and leverage! - Other industry specific metrics
• Compare relevant metrics to competitors
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & TRENDS - TIPS
• Projected IS / BS / CFS should tie together
• Make sure you don’t have runaway metrics - Projections should make economic sense
• Don’t be mechanical; customize your analysis to the
specific company and industry
• Don’t take this section lightly! - Easy to mess up
- Should be consistent with your qualitative assessment
- Ultimately drives your valuation and recommendation
VALUATION (20PTS)
• Valuation is an art, not a science...
• Discounted cash flow
- Growth and margin assumptions
- Terminal value and discount rate
• Multiples (P/E, P/FCFE, EV/FCFF, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, EV/S)
- User beware
- When using multiples you implicitly accept historical multiples as an accurate assessment of value
- Underlying a multiple is math... make sure it works and understand the logic
- Peers (make sure similar attributes)
- Transactions (make sure similar attributes)
- Historical (make sure the company hasn’t changed)
- Market
MODEL ASSUMPTIONS & RISKS
• Garbage-in, garbage-out
• DCF model assumptions - Margin assumptions
- Revenue drivers, bottom-up where possible - Cost drivers, bottom-up where possible
- Discount rate - Long-term growth rate; forever is a long time... be conservative - WACC/FCFF or Ke/FCFE
- Terminal value - Be careful - “Similar to the Hubble telescope... move an inch and you’re in a new galaxy”
- Sensitivity Analysis (Bull, Base & Bear Scenarios)
• Risks to estimates - Micro misses – fundamental economics of business change, industry landscape
changes, balance sheet impairs equity owners
- Macro misses – recession, interest rates, inflation, etc.
INVESTMENT MERITS
• What attributes make this a good investment?*
- Favorable fundamental attributes
- Strong market position, pricing power, strong brand, favorable outlook
- Attractive industry landscape
- Barriers to entry, rational competitors, secular tailwinds
- Balance sheet flexibility
- Attractive valuation
- Good capital allocators
- Favorable ST/LT outlook
* Assumes a buy recommendation
INVESTMENT RISKS (15PTS)
• There are literally pages of risks listed in the 10-k
• Ask yourself... what could go wrong?
- Company specific
- Customer/supplier concentration, cost inflation, loss of key product,
substitution, balance sheet deterioration, headline risks
- Industry specific
- Increasing competitive landscape, unfavorable regulatory changes
- Macro environment
- Recession, interest rates, inflation, currency
OTHER POTENTIAL HEADINGS (5PTS)
• Management summary - Executive profiles, recent changes, proxy statement
• Ownership summary - Top shareholders, institutional ownership, insider ownership
• Recent business initiatives / developments - New business segment, marketing and/or product strategy
- Acquisitions or divestitures
- Not always good... headline risk, manufacturing problems, regulatory
changes, etc.
• Recent balance sheet changes - Changes in capital structure, changes in debt or equity
TIPS
• Start early
• Asking why, why, why during due diligence will lead to a happy place
• Utilize publically available resources of co. and peers
- SEC filings: 10-K, 8-K, 10-Q
- Company website(s) and presentations
- Industry associations
• Double check your facts
• List your data source
• Edit multiple times
• Get it reviewed and incorporate the feedback
52
THE COMPANY
• Corporate headquarters in NE Philadelphia
• 134 plants in 41 countries
• 21,000 employees
• $8.6 billion in 2011 revenue
53
BEVERAGE CANS
• 50 billion beverage cans in 2011 – 1 in every 5 in the world
• About 50% of the business
• Major brand name customers
• Technology – ends, sizes, shaping
• CSD , Craft beer , Energy
54
FOOD CANS
• 14 billion food cans in 2011
• About 30% of the business
• Pet food, fruits and vegetables, soups – volumes stabilized
• Technology – ends, shaping
55
OTHER PRODUCTS
Aerosol Cans
• Discretionary
• Sensitive to economy
Specialty Cans
• Consumer
• Industrial
• Food
Closures
5% each
56
HISTORY
• Crown is over 100 years old
• Pre-1990’s – steady, consistent
• 1990’s – Acquisitions
1985 - $1.5 billion in revenue
1996 - $8.3 billion in revenue
• 2000/2001 – Crisis
• 2000’s
Refinancings
Divestitures
• Now
Oligopoly business
Emerging market growth
Strong cash flow
Sustainability
57
STOCK PERFORMANCE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Acquisition
Balance sheet
Asbestos/ Credit rating
Refinancing/Divestitures
Emerging markets
Cash flow EM
58
SUSTAINABILITY By the numbers:
• Aluminum can recycling rates
- U.S. – 65%
- EU – 64% (Sweden 90%, Switzerland 91%)
- Japan – 93%
- China – 99.5%
• Recycling versus primary products
- Aluminum – 95% energy savings
- Steel – 74% energy savings
• 75% of all primary aluminum produced in
the last 150 years is still in use.
• A beverage can goes through the cycle 6 times a year.
74%
95%
75%
59
LIGHTWEIGHTING
The weight of aluminum cans has been reduced
30% over the past 35 years.
Steel packaging weighs 40% less than 30 years
ago.
30%
40%
61
NOTES TO INVESTORS
Except for historical information, all other information in this presentation consists of forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities law. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors, that may cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause the statements made in this press release or the actual results of operations or financial condition of the Company to differ are discussed under the caption "Forward Looking Statements" in the Company's Form 10-K Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2011 and in subsequent filings. The Company does not intend to review or revise any particular forward-looking statement in light of future events.
Adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, segment income, free cash flow and net debt are not defined terms under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (non-GAAP measures). Non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for net income, cash flow or total debt data prepared in accordance with GAAP and may not be comparable to calculations of similarly titled measures by other companies. Adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, segment income, free cash flow and net debt are derived from the Company's Consolidated Statements of Operations and Cash Flows and Consolidated Balance Sheets, respectively, and reconciliations to non-GAAP measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, segment income, free cash flow and net debt, can be found in the "For Investors" section of the Company's website at www.crowncork.com
62
2011 SUMMARY
Total Net Sales - $8.6 Billion
2011 Highlights
Adjusted EPS up 25% to $2.81 ($2.24 in 2010)
Adjusted EBITDA $1,129 million ($1,042 in 2010)
Global beverage can volumes up 9%
More than $280 million capital for emerging market
capacity expansion
Repurchased $312 million of Company stock
Repurchased $202 million of non-controlling interests
134 plants
41 countries
20,700 employees
Asia
$862
European
Specialty
$434
European Food
$1,999
European
Beverage
$1,669
North American
Food
$889
Americas
Beverage
$2,273
Aerosol
$431
Other
$87
63
SALES BY REGION
( ) = number of plants Plants by product
Beverage 48
Food 60
Specialty Packaging 16
Aerosols & Other 10
134
$3.3
$2.8
$2.5
Latin
America (10)
Eastern
Europe/
Africa
(13)
2011 Sales $8.6 Billion 2011 Rest of World $2.5 Billion
$0.9
Rest of
World (43)
29%
US/Canada (36)
33%
Western Europe (55)
38%
$0.6
$0.4
$0.6
Asia (15)
Middle East (5)
64
($ in millions)
12/11 12/10
2012 2011 2010 Change Change
Net sales 4,131$ 4,163$ 3,787$ (0.8%) 9.1%
Segment income 431 461 391 (6.5%) 10.2%
% margin 10.4% 11.1% 10.3%
Adjusted EBITDA 518 546 479 (5.1%) 8.1%
% margin 12.5% 13.1% 12.6%
Earnings per share, ongoing operations $1.30 $1.32 $0.97 (1.5%) 34.0%
Total net debt $3,561 $3,330 $2,567
Net debt/Adj EBITDA 3.2x 3.0x 2.6x
Adj EBITDA/Interest Expense 4.8x 4.9x 4.6x
For the six months ended
June 30,
FINANCIALS - 2012
Beverage can volumes up 6%
Sales FX ($137) in 2012
Segment income FX ($11) in 2012
Inventory holding gain $15-$20 in 2011
• See appendix for reconciliation from reported earnings per share.
65
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
$8,612$8,644
$7,941$7,938
$8,305
$7,728
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
$8,500
$9,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LTM June
2012
Net Sales
($ in millions)
$923$953
$870
$812$808
$645
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LTM June
2012
Segment
Income
65
FX ($11)
Inv. Gains (17)
($28)
FX ($72)
66
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
$874
$1,024 $1,006 $1,042$1,129
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Adjusted
EBITDA
($ in millions)
$333
$508
$612
$250
$353
$0
$150
$300
$450
$600
$750
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Free Cash
Flow
66
68
CHINA
Xinjiang
Guangxi
Hubei
Gansu
Fujian
Shanxi Shandong
Sichuan
Yunnan
Henan
Zhejiang
Beijing
Shanghai Sichuan Xizang
Xinjiang
Qinghai
Gansu
Heilongjiang
Jilin
Chongqing
Guizhou
Liaoning
Jiangsu
Anhui
Jiangxi
Hunan
Neimongu Tianjin
Shaanxi
Ningxia
Hebei
White area = population 226 million
Green area = population 705 million
Red area = population 393 million
Guangdong
Hangzhou
Putian
Huizhou
Heshan
Ziyang
69
Malaysia
Singapore
Vietnam Thailand
Laos
Cambodia
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Beverage Existing Plants
Beverage
under construction
Food/Aerosol
Haadyai
Danang
Hanoi
Dong Nai
Ho Chi Minh
Bangi
Phnom Penh
Bangkok
Sihanoukville
70
SUMMARY OF BEVERAGE CAN CAPACITY
ADDITIONS Announced capacity additions and estimated start dates are shown below. Capacity additions total 13 billion cans. Sixteen (16) new
production lines and two (2) line expansions across nine (9) new plants and existing plants.
Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh line 2 4Q 2010 600 million
Turkey – Izmit expansion 1Q 2011 350 million
Brazil – Ponta Grossa line 1 1Q 2011 900 million
Brazil – Ponta Grossa line 2 2Q 2011 900 million
Slovakia line 2 2Q 2011 750 million
Brazil – Estancia line 2 2Q 2011 900 million
China – Hangzhou (Zhejiang) 2Q 2011 600 million
Cambodia – Phnom Penh line 2 4Q 2011 700 million
China – Putian (Fujian) 1Q 2012 700 million
China – Ziyang (Sichuan) 2Q 2012 700 million
Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh expansion 2Q 2012 700 million
Turkey – Osmaniye 2Q 2012 700 million
China – Heshan (Guangdong) 3Q 2012 700 million 9.2 billion
Malaysia – Bangi line 2 1Q 2013 700 million
China – Putian line 2 (Fujian) 2Q 2013 700 million
Vietnam – Danang 2Q 2013 750 million
Thailand – Bangkok 2Q 2013 700 million
Cambodia – Sihanoukville 3Q 2013 725 million 12.8 billion
* Crown sold 51 billion beverage cans globally in 2011.
70
71
CAPITAL SPENDING
$104 $100 $114 $110 $110
$75
$220
$287
$190$115
$40
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
Average from
2005-2009
2010 2011 2012 E 2013 E
Developed markets Emerging markets Insurance recovery
$179
$320
$401
$340
$225
72
USES OF CASH (2010 THROUGH 2012) ($ in millions)
$320 $300
$255 $250
$817
$371
$1,021
$401
$312
$202
$169
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2010 2011 2012E Total E
Capex Share Repurchases Acquire Noncontrolling Interests
Cash Flow Priorities
• Invest in our business
• Target growth
opportunities
• Ongoing cost reduction
programs
• Debt reduction
• Share repurchases
73
June 30, 2012
(US$ in Millions)
Note: Excludes receivables securitization ($130) and miscellaneous other indebtedness ($282).
Debt Maturity Profile
$414
$700$633
$400
$627
$135
TA
$90$45
$335
RCF
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2021 2026/96
$470
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