ccsp sap 2.1a: scenarios of greenhouse gas …...greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric...
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CCSP SAP 2.1A:
Scenarios ofGreenhouse Gas Emissions and
Atmospheric Concentrations
CCSP SAP 2.1A: CCSP SAP 2.1A:
Scenarios ofScenarios ofGreenhouse Gas Emissions andGreenhouse Gas Emissions and
Atmospheric ConcentrationsAtmospheric Concentrations
EMF, Tsukuba, 2006Leon Clarke
2
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
The organizers of EMF 22.
The authors of CCSP Product 2.1A,Jae EdmondsJake JacobyHugh PitcherJohn ReillyRich Richels
3
BackgroundBackgroundBackground
4
The CCSP Strategic Plan called for 21 synthesis and assessment products
The CCSP Strategic Plan called for 21 The CCSP Strategic Plan called for 21 synthesis and assessment productssynthesis and assessment products
Product 2.1: Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in collaboration with the CCTP. Review of integrated scenario development and application.
5
Who and what are these scenarios for?Who and what are these scenarios for?Who and what are these scenarios for?
“The scenarios are intended primarily for decisionmakers and analysts who might benefit from enhanced understanding of the potential characteristics and implications of stabilization. For example, technology planners might be interested in enhanced understanding of the potential energy systems implications of stabilization. The scenarios are also intended to serve as a point of departure for further CCSP and other analyses, such as climate scenarios or analyses of mitigation and adaptation options. The development of these scenarios will enhance the capabilities for future scenario analyses that might be conducted by CCSP or related agencies, such as those involved in CCTP.”
1. Solidify and Enhance the Knowledge Base for Decision-makers
2.Inputs to Further Analyses
3.Furthering the Tools and Methods
0. Focus on Stabilization
6
The Scenarios will provide insights into questions such as the following:The Scenarios will The Scenarios will provide insightsprovide insights into questions such into questions such as the following:as the following:
Emissions Trajectories:What emissions trajectories over time are consistent with meeting the four alternative stabilization levels?What are the key factors that shape the emissions trajectories that lead toward stabilization?
Energy Systems:What energy system characteristics are consistent with each of the four alternative stabilization levels?How might these characteristics differ among stabilization levels?
Economic Implications:What are the possible economic implications of meeting the four alternative stabilization levels?
7
Study DesignStudy DesignStudy Design
8
ParticipantsParticipantsParticipants
MIT (IGSM)Henry Jacoby, John Reilly
PNNL (MiniCAM)James Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher
EPRI (MERGE)Richard Richels
Coordinator Leon Clarke
9
Study DesignStudy DesignStudy DesignStabilize total radiative forcing from CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6
Other radiatively-important substances (e.g., aerosols) not included
Long-term (many century) stabilization; study period through 2100.Four stabilization scenarios roughly consistent with 450 ppmv through 750 ppmv CO2, along with one reference case.
Total Radiative Forcing from GHGs (Wm-2)
Approximate Contribution to
Radiative Forcing from non-CO2 GHGs (Wm-2)
Approximate Contribution to
Radiative Forcing from CO2 (Wm-2)
Corresponding CO2
Concentration (ppmv)
Level 1 3.4 0.8 2.6 450
Level 2 4.7 1.0 3.7 550
Level 3 5.8 1.3 4.5 650
Level 4 6.7 1.4 5.3 750
Year 1998 2.1 0.65 1.46 365
10
Study DesignStudy DesignStudy Design
All modeling groups assume existing climate programs (Kyoto, U.S. intensity target) but then assume perfect where, when, and what flexibility going forward.Assumptions (e.g., population, economic growth, technological change) developed individually by the modeling groups.No likelihoods assigned to any scenarios or parameters.
Teams directed to develop assumptions they consider “plausible”and “meaningful”.These are not the only sets of assumptions that these three modeling teams could have developed.
11
The Reference ScenariosThe Reference ScenariosThe Reference Scenarios
12
All the reference scenarios include strong drivers for emissions increases
Global Population
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Bill
ion
IGSM_REF
MERGE_REF
MINICAM_REF
U.S. Population
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Bill
ion
IGSM_REF
MERGE_REF
MINICAM_REF
U.S. GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Trill
ion
2000
$
IGSM_REF
MERGE_REF
MINICAM_REF
13
Primary energy grows to between three and four times today’s levels by the end of the century.All models envision penetration of fossil alternatives for conventional oilTransition away from conventional oil sourcesSubstantial growth in sources that don’t emit carbonBut fossil fuels remain the dominant energy source.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rNon-Biomass Renewables
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass Renewables
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass Renewables
Nuclear
Commercial Biomass
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
MERGE
IGSM
MiniCAM
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0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
IGSM_REF
MERGE_REF
MINICAM_REF
The result is continually increasing CO2 emissions over the century, with important transition in emitting countries.
Fossil and Industrial CO2 Emissions
0
2
4
6
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20
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
Non-Annex 1
Annex 1
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
Non-Annex 1
Annex 1
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
Non-Annex 1
Annex 1
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0
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
W/m
2
CO2Short-Lived F-gasesLong-Lived F-gasesN2OCH4
0
1
2
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8
9
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
W/m
2
CO2Short-Lived F-gasesLong-Lived F-gasesN2OCH4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
W/m
2
CO2Short-Lived F-gasesLong-Lived F-gasesN2OCH4
Radiative forcing trajectories are not consistent with stabilization at any of the four levels considered in the exerciseCO2 takes on an increasingly large share of radiative forcing in all three scenariosContributions of non-CO2 GHGs vary among the models
IGSMMiniCAM
MERGE
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The Stabilization ScenariosThe Stabilization ScenariosThe Stabilization Scenarios
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0
1
2
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9
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
W/m
2
IGSM_Level3MERGE_Level3MINICAM_Level3Level 3
Radiative ForcingLevel 3 (650 ppmv)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
W/m
2
IGSM_Level1MERGE_Level1MINICAM_Level1Level 1
Radiative Forcing Level 1 (450 ppmv)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
W/m
2
IGSM_Level2MERGE_Level2MINICAM_Level2Level 2
Radiative ForcingLevel 2 (550 ppmv)
Radiative forcing trajectories are similar across the models
18
Emissions ultimately decline toward the rate at which emissions are balanced by removal processes.Timing depends on the stabilization levelEmissions trajectories vary because of differences in (1) ocean uptake, (2) net terrestrial emissions, and (3) contributions from non-CO2 GHGs
Fossil & Industrial CO2Level 2 (550 ppmv)
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
IGSM_Level1IGSM_Level2IGSM_Level3IGSM_Level4IGSM_REF
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
MERGE_Level1MERGE_Level2MERGE_Level3MERGE_Level4MERGE_REF
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
MINICAM_Level1MINICAM_Level2MINICAM_Level3MINICAM_Level4MINICAM_REF
19
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
PRIMARY ENERGY(Reference)
20
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 4, 750 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
21
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 3, 650 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
22
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 2, 550 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
23
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Energy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 1, 450 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
24
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rCCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 4, 750 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
25
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rCCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 3, 650 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
26
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rCCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 2, 550 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
27
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rCCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
CCSEnergy ReductionNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoalNatural GasOil
Stabilization requires substantial changes in the energy systemThe models present very different approaches to this evolutionAll of the scenarios maintain a heterogeneous energy mix
PRIMARY ENERGY(Level 1, 450 ppmv)
IGSM MiniCAM
MERGE
28
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
$/to
nne
(200
0$)
IGSM_Level1IGSM_Level2IGSM_Level3IGSM_Level4
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
$/to
nne
(200
0$)
MERGE_Level1MERGE_Level2MERGE_Level3MERGE_Level4
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
$/to
nne
(200
0$)
MINICAM_Level1MINICAM_Level2MINICAM_Level3MINICAM_Level4
CARBON PRICES
29
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Per
cent
age
Loss
in G
ross
Wor
ld P
rodu
ct
IGSM_Level3
MERGE_Level3
MINICAM_Level3
PERCENTAGE LOSS IN GROSS WORLD PRODUCT (MER)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Per
cent
age
Loss
in G
ross
Wor
ld P
rodu
ct
IGSM_Level2
MERGE_Level2
MINICAM_Level2
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Per
cent
age
Loss
in G
ross
Wor
ld P
rodu
ct
IGSM_Level1
MERGE_Level1
MINICAM_Level1
Level 3(650 ppmv)
Level 1(450 ppmv)
Level 2(550 ppmv)
30
The Main DriversThe Main DriversThe Main Drivers
The issue—why is there a difference in estimates of costs across the three models? Two factors appear to play prominent roles.
1. Degree of Emissions Reductions, and
2. Assumptions about post-2050 technology
31
Emissions ReductionsEmissions ReductionsEmissions Reductions
Relative Cumulative Emissions Reductions from the Reference
Scenarios 2000 to 2100IGSM MERGE MiniCAM
Level 4 28% 9% 7%
Level 3 40% 20% 19%
Level 2 55% 40% 38%
Level 1 69% 69% 66%
While both the degree to which models reduce emissions matters in all stabilization scenarios, differences in the degree of emissions mitigation are particularly important in stabilization Levels 3 and 4.
32
Sources of Differences in Emissions Mitigation
Sources of Differences in Emissions Sources of Differences in Emissions MitigationMitigation
Reference case emissions
Carbon cycle
Non-CO2 GHG’s
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
IGSM_REF
MERGE_REF
MINICAM_REF
Reference CO2Emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
IGSM MERGE MiniCAM
Wm
2
CH4 N2OLong-Lived F-gases Short-Lived F-gasesCO2
Forcing in 2100, Level 2 (4.7 W/m2)
33
The Role of TechnologyThe Role of TechnologyThe Role of TechnologyThe cost behavior of the scenarios behavior is relatively similarly in 2050.Technology in the post 2050 time frame has strong cost implicationsThe approach to when flexibility links the short and long term
Price vs Percentage Abatement 2100
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Percentage Abatement
Pric
e ($
/tonn
e C
)
IGSM
MINICAM
MERGE
Price vs Percentage Abatement 2050
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Percentage Abatement
Pric
e ($
/tonn
e C)
IGSM
MINICAM
MERGE
34
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
rNon-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
EJ/y
r
Non-Biomass RenewablesNuclearCommercial BiomassCoal: w/ CCSCoal: w/o CCSNatural Gas: w/ CCSNatural Gas: w/o CCSOil: w/ CCSOil: w/o CCS
IGSMMiniCAM
MERGE All of the models have ample opportunities for decarbonizing electricity.
In the Level 1 scenarios, the electricity sector is almost completely decarbonized.
35
Post-2050 TechnologyPostPost--2050 Technology2050 Technology
What is the bioenergy resource base?Are there other low-carbon sources such as low-carbon hydrogen?How far can electricity move into new end uses?
None of the scenarios seriously electrify the transportation sector.
36
RATIO OF ELECTRICITY TO
PRIMARY ENERGY
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Rat
ioIGSM_Level1IGSM_Level2IGSM_Level3IGSM_Level4IGSM_REF
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Rat
io
MERGE_Level1MERGE_Level2MERGE_Level3MERGE_Level4MERGE_REF
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Rat
io
MINICAM_Level1MINICAM_Level2MINICAM_Level3MINICAM_Level4MINICAM_REF
37
Other FactorsOther FactorsOther Factors
Emissions reductions in other sectors (e.g. cement)Model structureEffects on capital accumulation
38
Ratio of the Price of CH4to the Price of Carbon
Ratio of the Price of CHRatio of the Price of CH44to the Price of Carbonto the Price of Carbon
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Rat
io
IGSM_Level1IGSM_Level2IGSM_Level3IGSM_Level4
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Rat
io
MERGE_Level1MERGE_Level2MERGE_Level3MERGE_Level4
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Rat
io
MINICAM_Level1MINICAM_Level2MINICAM_Level3MINICAM_Level4
The models take very different approaches to the treatment of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
39
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Rat
ioIGSM_Level1IGSM_Level2IGSM_Level3IGSM_Level4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Rat
io
MERGE_Level1MERGE_Level2MERGE_Level3MERGE_Level4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Year
Rat
io
MINICAM_Level1MINICAM_Level2MINICAM_Level3MINICAM_Level4
Ratio of the Price of N2O to the Price of Carbon
Ratio of the Price of NRatio of the Price of N22O O to the Price of Carbonto the Price of Carbon
The models take very different approaches to the treatment of non-CO2 greenhouse gases
40
Limitation/Areas for Future WorkLimitation/Areas for Future WorkLimitation/Areas for Future Work
Technology and other sensitivity analysisConsideration of less optimistic policy regimesImprovement/enhancement of the land use components of the modelsInclusion of other radiatively-important substancesDecision-making under uncertainty
41
ENDENDEND
42
Although the reference scenarios end up at roughly the same place, they take very different pathways over the century.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
IGSM_REF
MERGE_REF
MINICAM_REF
Reference CO2Emissions
43
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
IGSM_Level1IGSM_Level2IGSM_Level3IGSM_Level4IGSM_REF
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
MERGE_Level1MERGE_Level2MERGE_Level3MERGE_Level4MERGE_REF
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
MINICAM_Level1MINICAM_Level2MINICAM_Level3MINICAM_Level4MINICAM_REF
OCEAN UPTAKE
44
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
IGSM_Level1IGSM_Level2IGSM_Level3IGSM_Level4IGSM_REF
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
MERGE_Level1MERGE_Level2MERGE_Level3MERGE_Level4MERGE_REF
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
GtC
/yr
MINICAM_Level1MINICAM_Level2MINICAM_Level3MINICAM_Level4MINICAM_REF
NET TERRESTRIAL
EMISSIONS
45
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
IGSM MERGE MiniCAM
Wm
2
CH4 N2OLong-Lived F-gases Short-Lived F-gasesCO2
Stabilization at 4.7 W/M2 (Level 2, 550 ppmv)
Differing contributions from non-CO2greenhouse gases
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