by the number: lowndes county in 2040

By the Numbers:Lowndes County in 2040

Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce

2014 Economic SummitAugust 2014

The Art of Site Selection

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40

1

2

3

4

5

6

2040 Socioeconomic Data Study

• Transportation, Economic Development, Land Use, Housing

• Planning for the Future• Infrastructure Improvements• Need for Services• Federal and State Regulations• Partnership - MPO, County, Cities

2040 Socioeconomic Data Study

• What will Lowndes County look like in 2040?• 5 Year Increments; 2010-2040• Population• Housing• Employment (broad)• Foundation for planning and growth strategies

2040 Socioeconomic Data Study

• Transportation (Req.)– Population– Households– Median HH Income– Employment

• Manufacturing• Wholesale• Service• Retail

– Student Enrollment

• Additional Data– Race/Sex/Age– Housing Ownership– Housing Type– Housing Units– Housing Type– Household Size– Housing Vacancy– Unemployment– Educational Attainment– Labor Force

Population

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 20450

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Total Population

Population – Race

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Race in Lowndes County

White Black American Indian Asian Other Multi Racial

Population – Hispanic Ethnicity

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Hispanic Ethnicity in Lowndes County

Hispanic

Population Observations

• By 2030 Whites will be in the minority• Hispanic population expected to double• Lowndes County will be more diverse, multi-

racial

Population – Age

Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 650

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Age by Year

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Population – School Age

Under 5 5-13 14-240

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Lowndes County Population - School Ages

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

School Enrollment

Total Students0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Lowndes County School Enrollment

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

24,000

Educational Attainment

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Lowndes County HS Education

Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED

Educational Attainment

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

High School Only % over 25

Less than HS Some 9-12 HS or GED

Educational Attainment

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Advanced Education in Lowndes County

Some College Associates Bachelors Graduate

Educational Attainment2014 2040

Less than 9th Grade 2.9% 0%

Less than HS 16.5% 3.9%

HS Diploma/GED 31.8% 29.5%

Some College 20.9% 28.4%

Associates 6.9% 9.6%

Bachelor’s 13.4% 18.4%

Graduate 7.6% 9.82%

2014: EMSI 2Q2014, Georgia Power, The are of Site Selection

Population – Age

Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 650

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Age by Year

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Education Observations

• School aged children live here• After college, large numbers leave• Where to put all of these students– Traditional vs. Online Classes?

• HS only education continues to rise, but fall as a percentage of total adults (30%)

Population – Workforce

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Lowndes County Workforce

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64

35-54 will be the workforce

Employment Sectors

• Service (everything that is not below)– Military, government,

education, healthcare, etc.

• Retail• Manufacturing• Wholesale

Michael Rivera

Employment

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Employment Sectors

Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment

Employment

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Manufacturing Employment

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Wholesale Employment

Employment

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Service Employment

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Retail Employment

Employment

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Employment Sectors

Service Employment Retail Employment Manufacturing Employment Wholesale Employment

Employment

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

6.2%

6.4%

6.6%

6.8%

7.0%

7.2%

7.4%

7.6%

7.8%

8.0%

8.2%

Labor Force and Unemployment

Labor Force Unemployment %

Employment – Commuting

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

200000

Daytime Population vs Resident Population

Daytime Population Total Pop

11,300

Population – Age

Under 5 5-13 14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Over 650

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Age by Year

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Employment Observations

• 2015 – 25-34 is largest employed population, by 2040 35-54 is largest group

• All sectors grow, just not as much as Service• Is unemployment in the 6-7% range the new

norm?• Regional economy with commuters, need the

infrastructure to support

Owner vs. Renter

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Owner vs. Renter Occupancy

Owner Renter

Housing Type

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Housing Type

Single Family Multi-Family Manufactured

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40

1

2

3

4

5

6

Aspirant Communities – Population*

Rank County Metro State Population Growth %*1 Lee Opelika AL 85.46%2 Houston Warner Robins GA 58.80%3 Warren Bowling Green KY 49.70%4 Montgomery Clarksville TN 47.56%5 Morgan Decatur AL 34.78%6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 34.76%7 Clarke Athens GA 33.09%8 Nash Rocky Mount NC 21.90%9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 21.55%

10 Floyd Rome GA 20.26%11 Florence Florence SC 13.62%12 Houston Dothan AL 8.54%13 Rapides Alexandria LA 6.21%14 Ouachita Monroe LA 4.13%15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data

*Change from base year to future year

*2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans

Aspirant Communities – Employment*

*2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans

Rank County Metro State Employment Growth %*1 Lee Opelika AL 104.42%2 Florence Florence SC 58.21%3 Montgomery Clarksville TN 52.41%4 Houston Warner Robins GA 48.90%5 Warren Bowling Green KY 44.42%6 Lowndes Valdosta GA 40.01%7 Clarke Athens GA 38.29%8 Forrest Hattiesburg MS 36.48%9 Morgan Decatur AL 34.79%

10 Houston Dothan AL 29.38%11 Floyd Rome GA 19.66%12 Rapides Alexandria LA 18.28%13 Ouachita Monroe LA 10.00%14 Nash Rocky Mount NC 0.00%15 Wayne Goldsboro NC No Data

Aspirant Communities – Overall*

Sum County Metro State1 Lee Opelika AL2 Houston Warner Robins GA3 Montgomery Clarksville TN4 Warren Bowling Green KY5 Lowndes Valdosta GA6 Florence Florence SC7 Morgan Decatur AL7 Clarke Athens GA9 Forrest Hattiesburg MS

10 Floyd Rome GA11 Nash Rocky Mount NC11 Houston Dothan AL13 Rapides Alexandria LA14 Ouachita Monroe LA15 Wayne Goldsboro NC

*2035 or 2040 Transportation Plans

So where are we going?

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 40

1

2

3

4

5

6

Common Community Vision

A resilient community where partnerships and coordination

promote regional success in economic development,

education, infrastructure, and a high quality of life.

Common Community Vision

• Support Economic Engines• Workforce Training – technical and career

skills, public/private partnerships• Encourage small businesses• Regional strategy• Education -> 21st Century workforce• Coordinated Governments Services

Where does Transportation Fit?

• Partnerships and Resources• Transportation Infrastructure– Promote ED, private investment

• Improve walkability and bikeability• Regional Connectivity• Multi-modal transportation system– Public transit, public/private partnerships, safety,

airport services

2040 Transportation Vision Plan

• August-September 2014; Public Input• Project Selection/Prioritization• Travel Demand Model Development• Multi-modal transportation options• June-August 2015; Final Public Input• September 2015; Adoption of Plan

Corey Hull, AICP

Southern Georgia Regional CommissionValdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization

chull@sgrc.uswww.sgrc.us/transportation