brighton august2015

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Times of Transition: the role of game-changers

Brighton, 26 August 2015

1. The Great Transition

2. Implications for Transition Theory

3. Role of Game Changers

Structure

We do not live in an era of change

but in a change of eras

• Industrial revolution

• Modernisation of society

• Shift in power

Latest Tipping Point period

19th Century vs 21th Century

industrial revolution digital revolution

fear for machines fear for robots

faith in technological progress technological optimism

long-lasting turbulence increasing turbulence

social inequality social inequality

Marx Piketty

Differences

complexity

pace

impact

growth

human capital

climate change

Change of Eras

1. Society is changing fundamentally

2. Economy is changing radically

3. Emerging new power

Society 3.0

Through development stagePre-development stage

Horizontal

Decentralized

Bottom-up

Vertical

Centralized

Top-down

Time

Build-up of Society 3.0

We are here

Tipping Point

Transition to Society 3.0

centralized decentralized

top-down bottom-up

big organisations flat organisations & networks

systems & structures initiatives & humans

fixed & rigid fluid & flexible

directing government facilitating government

Old Society New Society

Energy from fossil fuels centralized to clean & decentralized

Welfare from taking care of to arranging that

Building from service & product to demand & service

Care from effective & efficient to human-oriented

Education from organisations central to teacher central

Traditional Sectors in Transition

CitizenInitiatives

Local Energy Initiatives

Local Health Care Cooperations

Explosive Growth of Cooperations

Economy 3.0

banks financial cooperations

energy companies google, tesla, start-ups

taxi companies Uber

hotel chains Airbnb

book stores Amazon

Old Economy vs New Economy

Economic Transition

- robotisation en automatision

- digitalisation of production process

- unbundling & separation of tasks

- circular & biobased economy

The Energy Transition

Disruptions in 10 years

1 year ago: high oil prices

2 years ago: sustainable new capacity > fossil new capacity

3 years ago: shalegas ‘revolution’

4 years ago: Fukushima

7 years ago: financial crisis

Energy Transition: Tipping Point

chaos

conflicts

battlefield

Tipping Point Indicators

coal fire plants are phased out worldwide

decoupling of economic growth and CO2-emissions

big European energy companies are in trouble

solar PV about 80% cheaper than 7 years ago

grid parity: solar & wind compete with fossil fuels in many regions

since 2013 more clean energy was installed than fossil fuel

Global Climate Movement

divestment movement

350.org

gofossilfree.org

Pope

Bill McKibben, Naomi Klein, James Hansen

Beyond Transition Theory

fluid development of networks in interaction

with actors that undertake strategic actions

Re-Conceptualizing Transitions

Societal (Transition) Field

streams societal value sets & modes of organisation

systems set of solutions for societal needs in instit. setting

actors individual or collective strategic agents

Conceptual Framework

NOT ready-made solutions that solve a persistent problem

BUT technologies, infrastructures, social practices,

organisations and arrangements that can get institutionalised

‘Solutions’

Rooted in Complex Systems Theory

new stream functions as an attractor

critical point is at the crossroads of two attractors

system becomes vulnerable and either adapts or dies out

punctuated equilibrium is short period of instability & chaos

agents with smart strategies & timing can have much impact

IdividualAgent

Repetition

Deliberation Imitation

Social comparison

Cognitive processingMemory (mental

map)

Constraints

Uncertainties

Social NormsGoals and Beliefs

Decision

Strategy

Perspectives

macro-developments

Interests

meso developments

Local Situation

micro developments

new societal streams emerge around new values and needs

actors connect to streams affiliate with new solutions

actors undertake strategic actions that can lead to new

initiatives, networks and movements

actors exercise various kinds of power by their strategic actions

Societal Field Dynamics

frontrunners create solutions in niches for radical innovation

connectors enable connections between people, ideas, solutions

topplers able to mobilise lots of people and topple systems

followers give weight, visibility and legitimacy to new solutions

Four types of Transition Actors

Typology of Transition Actors

Actor Action Power Strategic movements

Front runner Innovates Innovative &

destructive

Entrepreneurs that pioneer (new) solutions in early stages

Connector Anchors Constitutive Anchors (new) solutions within existing institutional settings,

whether part of an incumbent system or an emerging system

Toppler Empowers Transformative &

systemic

Creates new, enabling institutions or breaks down existing,

impeding ones, empowering new solutions

Follower Follows Potential

Systemic

Through their numbers creating institutionalisation of (new)

solutions. Contribution to the formation of social movements.

Typology of Transition Collectives

Collective Agent Description Examples Actor configuration

Initiatives Organisations making

new solutions available

Start-ups, enterprises,

cooperatives & communities

Initiated by frontrunners or

topplers attracting followers

Networks Loose affiliation of actors

sharing values/ solutions

Organisations, knowledge

networks, user communities

Typically frontrunners and

connectors and followers

Movements Network by association,

with popular support

Open source movement,

climate movement, yfm

Typically initiated by

topplers, mass of followers

Transition Field Dynamics

Frontrunners Connectors Topplers

• Initiatives • Networks • Movement

Time

Emerging vs Incumbent Systems

transition field dynamics valid for both

mirroring incumbent and emerging systems

fluid network development from both sides

harmonica dynamics: weakening & strengthening

to be elaborated

the rise of the new streamfrontrunners are dominant

initiatives proliferate and networks emerge

no institutionalisation

the tipping phasenew solutions and systems scale up

topplers and connectors build up movements

institutionalisation and transformative power

the consolidation phase

new stream embodied, old one disappears

cascade of transitions with mass of followers

Great Transition Dynamics

Role of Game Changers

+ highly specialised, efficient and effective

- bureaucratic, overregulated and costly

emerging stream decentralised, bottom-up care system

less bureaucracy and humans central

Transition Programme Long-Term Care [2007-2013]

25 experiments with frontrunners, connectors, 1 toppler

Programme was successful but terminated, arose a movement

Jos de Blok = toppler = initiator of neighbourhood care

Dutch Health Care

energy transition project [2001-2010]

+ agenda setting, experimenting, initiatives, networks

- policy implementation failed

dramatic stagnation of sustainable energy, from 2% to 5% in 25 years

broad sustainable energy implementation plan for 2015-2050

emerging stream: 500 local, decentralised energy initiatives

Urgenda as toppler won a lawsuit against the Dutch government

government is forced to cut CO2-emissions by 25% in 2020

Dutch Energy Law Suit

represents about 25% of energy use in the Netherlands

incremental innovation policy for housing aims at 2050

emerging stream of energy-neutral renovation of houses

initiatives and networks for energy-neutral housing renovation

toppler Jan-Willem van de Groep created a break-through

radical plan to make 110.000 houses energy-neutral in 5 years

Dutch Housing Stock

times of transition require set of new transition concepts

combination of topplers, connectors, frontrunners can be effective

framework: streams, actors, systems needs empirical validation

multi-actor approach has implications for transition governance

Concluding Remarks