bob hall - presentation slides from 8th illc december 2012
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1st Australian Task Force in Vietnam:
Lessons from a counterinsurgency
campaign
Military Operations Analysis Team - Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and Society
Bob Hall, Andrew Ross, Satish Chand, Amy Griffin, Derrill de Heer; and Barry Smith
Counterinsurgency involves ...
... the intersection of military action (combat and non-
combat), politics, economics and social reform to
• build security,
• build political legitimacy,
• build the economy and personal wealth,
• remove social friction.
None of this is new. It was done in Vietnam.
There is a vast amount of (publicly available) data in the
Vietnam records ... and in the insurgent’s histories.
Databases
Vietnam Combat Database
•4500 1ATF combat incidents x 30 bits of
info
Vietnam Intelligence Database
•36,000 intelligence incidents x 6 bits of info
Vietnam Village Database
•150 hamlets x 80 bits of info
Vietnam Civic Action Projects Database
•Currently 430 projects x 25 bits of info and
growing
... and more Databases under construction
Phuoc Tuy Economy Database
•PSA and Australian Embassy reports
Political Events Database
•Australian and US Embassy files
Social Development Database
•PSA and Australian Embassy reports
•Pacification Attitude Analysis System reports
Using these databases we apply...
• Statistical techniques,
• Spatial analysis,
• Temporal analysis ...
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1ATF contacts and associated casualties
Number of contacts 1ATF casualties Enemy Casualties
1ATF arrives in Phuoc Tuy,
May ’66. Battle of Long Tan,
Aug ‘66
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Number of contacts 1ATF casualties Enemy Casualties
Tet Offensive, Jan/Feb 1968
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1ATF contacts and associated casualties
Number of contacts 1ATF casualties Enemy Casualties
Mid-1969 ‘high point’
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Who initiates contact?
Enemy 1ATF Province Forces
Jan ‘68
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Quarter year
Who initiates contact?
Enemy 1ATF Province Forces
1ATF begins training
Province Forces, Apr ‘69
Phuoc Tuy
Main population
and rice
production
centre
Major outlying
villages
Phuoc Tuy
May Tao
Hat Dich
Nui Dinh,
Nui Thi Vai
Long Hais
(Minh Dam
Secret Zone)
Bunker systems and food captured by 1ATF
1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Bunker
systems
Captured 91 299 283 455 402 275
Average
weight of
food
captured
(lbs)
4414 2193 624 157 103 80
The VC turn to alternative sources of food
1969 1970 1971
VC food scrounging incidents 6 91 247
VC tax collection incidents 1 88 249
1ATF patrol and ambush contacts
within 2.5km of a village
1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Patrol
and
ambush
contacts
93 60 123 113 132 46
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1ATF contacts and associated casualties
Number of contacts 1ATF casualties Enemy Casualties
Decline in combat
operations
Rise of VC non-combat/political action
1969 1970 1971
VC assassinations 8 17 24
VC abductions 211 36 86
VC propaganda meetings with
civilians 19 134 223
Time sequence:
All 1ATF ambushes
by time of day
Snapshots: Social development in Phuoc Tuy Province
1966 End of 1971
Population 102,998 124,844
Radios: 8,451 19,178
Televisions: 57 1,324
Elementary school students 16,913 23,630
Secondary school students 2,316 5,059
Hospital beds 40 153
Snapshots: Economic development, Phuoc Tuy
1966 End of 1971
Rice production (mt) 18,000 18,250
Salt production (mt) 49,670 64,800
Sea food production (mt) 12,259 38,000
Timber production (m3) 2,667 7,618
Registered trucks 15 43
Registered motorcycles 0 6,206
Snapshots: Political instability-
Republic of Vietnam
President/Premier Duration
Ngo Dinh Diem (murdered in 1963 coup) 1954-63
General Duong Van Minh 86 days
General Nguyen Khanh 260 days
Tran Van Huong 84 days
Nguyen Xuan Oanh 19 days
Phan Huy Quat 112 days
Nguyen Cao Ky/Nguyen Van Thieu 1965 ....
Snapshots: Political legitimacy?
National
turnout
Phuoc Tuy
turnout
Result
National Constituent
Assembly Election,
11 Sep 66
81% 89.4% New Democratic
Constitution and
Electoral Laws
1967 Presidential
Election, 3 Sep 67
83% ? A ‘17-horse’ race.
Thieu wins with
34% of votes
1971 Presidential
Election, 3 Oct 71
87.9% 96.1% A ‘one-horse’
race. Thieu wins
with 94.3% of
votes
Discussion
Military Operations Analysis Team - Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and Society
Contact:
Dr Bob Hall
Phone: 02 6268 8848
Mobile: 0439 887 580
Email: b.hall@adfa.edu.au
Data …
What data is captured?
How is it captured, recorded and used?
Analysis …
What analysis is done?
Who does it?
For what purpose?
Is it aimed at deriving short term or long term lessons?
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Hec
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Years – 1962 - 1973
Vietnam - crop hectares for TN and paddy rice (1000 hectares)
Paddy
TN rice
Paddy plus TN rice
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Years 1968 - 1973
Total value - agricultural imports and exports (million VN$)
Total value of agricultural imports
Total value of agricultural exports
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Vietnam - Estimated prices received by farmers, 1965-1972 (VN$
per kg)
Paddy
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Peanuts
Vegetables
Pigs
Chicken
Fishery products
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Fortnightly price samples - 15 Jan to 30 Sep 71
Retail price of rice - Baria market
Rice, long grain, good smelling, highquality, 15% brokens 1 kg
Rice, medium grain, medium quality,25% brokens 1 kg
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Average daily wages - Southern Vietnam
Average daily wages - Southern Vietnam
Labourer under 18 years Male
Labourer under 18 years Female
Labourer 18 years and over Male
Labourer 18 years and over Female
Skilled worker Male
Skilled worker Female
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