beijing jiaotung university : international peer dialogue

Beijing Jiaotung University : International Peer Dialogue

New Mobility Peer Dialogue. Beijing, 25/09/2012

International Peer Dialogue on 26/09/12 in Beijing with

Eric Britton, Managing Director, New Mobility Partnerships

Lyon France and Los Angeles USA

Introduced by Professor Jason Chang- Visiting Professor, China Academy of Transportation

Sciences,

Getting around: And why we need a Plan Z.

Mobility Strategies for Better Transport in China’s Cities: 2013-2015

This Peer Dialogue is about transport in cities

3New Mobility Peer Dialogue. Beijing, 25/09/2012

But it is also about ideas. (And complexity) (And interdependence)

Let’s have a look at how we got into this embarrassing situation.

Today we will inspect and comment together: Who are we? And why are we here? Getting Around: Cities, Indolence, Complexity, Harmony (Book and Process) Two starkly contrasting transport scenarios: 1951-2011 The Dark Ages of Transport in Cities, 1975-2012 (Why and lessons learned) Old Mobility Snares: Winning battles but loosing the war The New Mobility Agenda: Getting comfortable with complexity Micro/Macro Transportation Problem Solving Strategic New Mobility Pillars: 2013-2015 1. Master complexity 2. Scale up from Public Transit to Share/Transport 3. Zetabyte strategies 4. Open System to broad based innovation (App strategies) The Golden Arrow of Harmony (video and reflection) Your comments and reflections

New Mobility Peer Dialogue. Beijing, 25/09/2012 4

First background on Peer Dialogue Process

Getting Around: The Third Paradigm

Cities, Indolence, Complexity and the Golden Arrow of Harmony

The Book: 2014The Process: 2012-

Process: First City Dialogues, 2012 start-upBarcelonaBeijing (3)Helsinki (2) Jiaozuo Kaohsiung (3)LiverpoolLyonParis (3)StrasburgStuttgart Tainan (2)TallinnUtrecht

Some strange, hard to understand things are going on in our sector.

An embarrassing comparison: 1951- 2011

What was going on in the streets of our cities at this time?

In 1951 a New York City street looked like this

Scenario A: Transport in Cities: 1951

In 2011 a New York City street looked like this:

Scenario A’: Transport in Cities: 2011

Want to tell us why?

In 1951 a computer looked like this (Univac 1)

Scenario B: Electronic Transport Development: 1951

By the way and just in case you forgot

The first UNIVAC I was delivered on June 14, 1951.

The machine was 25 feet by 50 feet in length, contained 5,600 tubes, 18,000 crystal diodes, and 300 relays. It utilized serial circuitry, 2.25 MHz bit rate, and had an internal storage capacity 1,000 words or 12,000 characters.

It utilized a Mercury delay line, magnetic tape, and typewriter output. The UNIVAC was used for general purpose computing with large amounts of input and output.

Power consumption was about 120 kva. Its reported processing speed was 0.525 milliseconds for arithmetic functions, 2.15 milliseconds for multiplication and 3.9 Milliseconds for division.

And in 2011 a computer looked like this

Scenario B’: Electronic Transport Development: 2011

Steve Jobs announcing iPad 2. March 2011

That’s on the order of a trillion-plus times leap in performance* in just sixty years (approximately two human generations)

Wow!* Back of the envelope comparisons by weight, volume, electricity consumption and processing capacity

Ladies, Gentlemen, it’s obviously time to stop and think

“A developed country is not a place where the poor have cars. It‘s where the rich use public transportation”

- Enrique Peñalosa, Former mayor of Bogotá, Colombia

You can start here:

Clue: Have you given any thought recently to . . .

You really should because they are going to be a central part of the solution

More follows on ZB

And here:

How did we get into this embarrassing situation?

New Mobility Peer Dialogue. Beijing, 25/09/2012One more afternoon in NYC

The Dark Ages of Transport in Cities *

1975 - 2012

•This is where that terrible word “indolence” comes in. We have lost a generation of

opportunities. • And we no reason to be proud.

Remember the Old Mobility Agenda

* Which is pretty much explains how the world got where we are today

These are the main values stressed in the old model

Congestion (avoidance) Forecast and build Micro planning Cars and other motor vehicles

(accommodation) Infrastructure (expansion) Speed (important) Distance (expanding) Space (not an issue) Time (saving) Resources (not a problem) Planet (not a problem) Public transport (as absolutely required) Labor (“Saving”) Electronics (To support above) Point problem solving - by big (costly) projects

Old Mobility, 1975 - 2012: Won the battles . . . Lost the war

Time to find a new model for transport in cities

The New Mobility Agenda:

The Third Transport Paradigm

(But we are going to have to invent it ourselves)

Beijing Jiaotung University : International Peer Dialogue

International Peer Dialogue on 26/09/12 in Beijing with

Eric Britton, Managing Director, New Mobility Partnerships

Lyon France and Los Angeles USA

Introduced by Professor Jason Chang- Visiting Professor, China Academy of Transportation

Sciences,

Getting Around: Time for a Plan Z?

New Mobility Strategies for Transport in China’s Cities: 2013-2015

Sustainable Transport in China today? Is this an emergency situation?How bad is it? Mobility efficiency, cost-

effectiveness, key externalities, environment, equity

The time vector? Irreversiblilities? Is the situation under control?Beyond point successes, the overall system

dynamics?Do we have reason to be (chose one please)

1. Optimistic?2. Hopeful?3. Worried?

Aggressive search for new winning strategies?

Why is the sky blue Daddy?

Here’s a question for you:.

What is the big difference between Beijing and Mexico City?

Learn! Unlearn! Relearn!

The first rule of Transport Policy and Practice in the 21st Century is

The New Mobility Ecosystem:

Transport/Mobility/Access/Presence

But what if instead we broaden our scope and instead think about . . .

For a long time we have thought in terms of “transportation”

The New Mobility Ecosystem:

You’ll see; it changes everything

The New Mobility Ecosystem: Welcome to complexity

The New Mobility Ecosystem

Micro vs. Macro Transportation Problem Solving

A Few First Words on Sharing in Transport

Advantages of Sharing

The Many Ways to Share

Do we need a Plan Z? Is this an emergency situation?How bad is it?The time vector? Irreversiblilities?Will BAU do the job?Beyond point successes, the overall system

dynamics?Do we have reason to be (chose one)

1. Optimistic?2. Hopeful?3. Worried?

Aggressive search for new winning strategies? New Mobility Peer Dialogue. Beijing,

25/09/2012

Plan Z: Getting the basics right Define Emergency status and chief parameters Define and understand full City Transport Ecosystem Continue to support and link all strong on-going

programs Obtain new scale resources for Plan Z Highest priority Transport/Mobility/Access/Presence “Better than car” mobility targets for cities Future of the car in the city Share/Transport Zetabytes Open up system and data Massively improve communications

New Mobility Ecosystem/Core Values

New Mobility Ecosystem/Expanded focus

The New Mobility Ecosystem: Systemic Complexity

Five Project/Activity proposals for 2013(Food for thought)

Will 2013 be a “tipping point” for transport innovation in China? (And/or, could we make it one?)

#1: Embrace complexity and redefine “Public Transport” #2: A New Mobility Agenda for Share/Transport #3: DRT – The future of the road #4: Unexpected gift: Get Carsharing into Fifth Gear #5: A Tai Chi approach to transport policy and practice for Chinese cities

The New Mobility Agenda

In closing: There points that as professionals you may wish to recall

1. Complex systems refute sub-optimization

2. Greater diversity of everything

3. Technical virtuosity in support of wise governance

i.e., you still have a job.

Questions/Comments

* Roughly half the Master Class participants were female. (They are clearly doing something

right in Beijing).

Closing remarks by the Chair

Professor Jason Chang

Eric BrittonNew Mobility Partnerships

France:9, rue Gabillot F69003 Lyon FranceTel. +336 5088 0787 | eric.britton@ecoplan.org | S.

newmobility

USA: 9440 Readcrest Dr. Los Angeles, CA 90210 Tel. +1 213 985 3501 fekbritton@gmail.com | Skype:

ericbritton

Thank you

The New Mobility Ecosystem: 2013 - 2015

Before the wholeSerenitySensitivityBalanceAnticipationBreathSupplenessSlowSoft Harmony

Annex. Thinking exercise: New Mobility/Tai Chi Chuan

beijing jiaotung university : international peer dialogue

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