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6/19/2015
1
Cambodia Education Development Trends and Post‐2015 Priorities
Tsuyoshi FukaoWorld Bank
Thematic Outline
Basic Education Trends
Education Financing
Basic Education Thematic Issues
Higher Education Trends and Issues
Post 2015 in Cambodia?
•Basic Education Trends•Education Financing
•Basic Education Thematic Issues
•Higher Education Trends and Issues
•Post 2015 in Cambodia?
NET ENROLLMENT: Improved across all grade levels
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
Year in primary Year in secondary
% students at appropriate
grade
Net Enrollment rate by year
2004 Net 2011 Net
Source: World Bank Poverty Assessment, 2013
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Gender Gap:Decreases and eventually disappears over time
‐1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1919
1924
1929
1934
1939
1944
1949
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
Birth year
Female Male
GAP
School age
Source: World Bank Poverty Assessment, 2013
ENROLLMENT INEQUALITIES:Persistent differences across upper/lower quintiles
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
% of 15‐20 years old with completed
grad
es in 2011
Grade completed
Lowest quintile Highest quintile
Source: World Bank Poverty Assessment, 2013
•Basic Education Trends
•Education Financing •Basic Education Thematic Issues
•Higher Education Trends and Issues
•Post 2015 in Cambodia?
NEED FOR GREATER RESOURCES:Challenges of access and teaching can only be met with greater outlays
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3
5.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Thai 2009 Thai 1994 Laos 2008 Myanmar2009
Vietnam2010
Vietnam2004
Cambodia
Poorest quintile’s private spending on education as share of total spending
(households with positive education spending)
LOW PUBLIC SPENDING:Higher economic burden for the poor
9
“Economic burden” = share of
household spending which
goes toward education
Source: World Bank calculations using household survey data from selected countries.
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING:Large gaps between upper/lower quintiles
Source: IFAPER, 2012
TOTAL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING = 2.5% of GDP:Greater than public education expenditure
Poorest Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Richest Q
Source: IFAPER, 2012
EFFICIENT SPENDING: Ministry of Education greatly underspent its budget
Observation: National Defense and Social Affairs over-spent, while other Ministries under-spent. MoEYS had the lowest rate of budget expenditure amongst them.
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
MoEYS NationalDefence
Health Interior(Security)
Social Affairs Commerce Labour andVT
Annual Budget Usage Rate
↑ Over-spent
↓ Under-spent
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UNDER‐SPENDING OF EDUCATION BUDGET
UNDER‐SPENDING OF EDUCATION BUDGET: 70% marked for renumeration
MOEYS RECURRENT BUDGET: Downward trend until 2013, up slightly in 2014
18.3
19.2
18.1
17.03 16.4
16.615.9
15.5
16.2
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: MEF
•Basic Education Trends
•Education Financing
•Basic Education Thematic Issues•Higher Education Trends and Issues
•Post 2015 in Cambodia?
Two Key Issues:
1. High Rates of Dropout and Repetition
2. Shortage of Qualified Teachers
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HIGH DROP‐OUT AND REPETITION
Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Stubbornly high
Source: EMIS/ADB
-Half of those who dropped out did so for economic reasons
-Many drop-outs are ‘overaged’ (close to market age)
Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Why so many? = Economic Reasons and ‘Overaged’
Reason 1: Late entry to Grade 1
Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Why so many ‘overaged’?
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Reason 2: High Repetition and drop-out during primary
cycle, particularly in the early grades.
19.6
14.4
11.3
7.8
10.9 11.4
30.9
22
19.818.3
17.3
14.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4 Grade 5 Grade 6
2011-2012
2007-2008
Lower Secondary Dropout Rates:Why so many ‘overaged’?
Source: EMIS/MoEYS
High Dropout at LS ‐ Scholarship for poor students
Late entry to Grade 1‐ Expansion of ECE (late entry )‐ Enrolment campaign (late entry)
High repetition/drop‐out in Grade 1‐2‐ Early Grade Reading program
Effective Interventions:What do these look like?
High Drop Out at LS
WHY?
HH economic reasons
WHY?
Unaffordable education private cost
school age = working age
OVER AGE EnrolmentWHY?
High repetition in primary cycle
Late entry to G1Low teacher
capacity
WHY?
WHY?
CCT
ECE
Enrolment Campaign
EGRA
CCT
WHY?
???
Effective Interventions:What do these look like?
SHORTAGE OF QUALIFIED TEACHERS
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Shortage of Qualified Teachers:High Pupil‐Teacher Ratio
US holder60%
Non-US 40%
Primary teachers education level
US holder80%
Non-US 20%
Secondary teachers education level
<3060%
30<40%
Primary teachers age
Single75%
Double25%
Teachers shift
Male53%
Female
47%
All teachers gender
Male90%
Female10%
All School Directors gender
Shortage of Qualified Teachers:Who are the teachers?
Shortage of Qualified Teachers:How to attract, motivate, and retain high quality? •Basic Education Trends
•Education Financing
•Basic Education Thematic Issues
•Higher Education Trends and Issues•Post 2015 in Cambodia?
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8
ENROLLEMENT AT HEIS: Rapid increase in student numbers not slowing
EXPANSION OF HEIS: Over the past 15 years, more than 60 HEIs established
CHOICE OF MAJOR:HALF OF STUDENTS MAJOR IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
73%
62%
38%
31%
23%
16%
12%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
University graduates do not have the right skills
Vocational training graduates do not have the rightskills
Not enough vocational training graduates
Difficult to train or up‐skill existing staff
Firms cannot afford to pay salaries that the marketdemands
Others
Not enough university graduates
Difficult to attract people to this industry
What are the underlying causes of your firm’s skills shortages?
Source: Survey by HRINC Cambodia, March 2011
QUALITY: HEIs not producing graduates with appropriate skills
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UNDER CONSTRUCTION:Key institutions still need to be developed
Source: SABER 2013
Vision 2030
ACC
•Basic Education Trends
•Education Financing
•Basic Education Thematic Issues
•Higher Education Trends and Issues
•Post 2015 in Cambodia?
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE:2015 as a transition point
2015
Post 2015 Priorities: ECE/Skills and Results Focus
More resource to ECCD and Skill oriented field (Secondary/Tertiary/TVET)
Improve implementation and results focus
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Why ECCD and Tertiary?
:To raise employability
Brain Growth
Rates of Return to Investment in Human Capital
Preschool SchoolPost School
Preschool Programs
Schooling
Job Training
Age0
WHY EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION?:Brain Growth versus Rates of Return
Source: Heckman & Carneiro Human Social Policy, 2003, RAND, Benefits and Costs of Early-Childhood Interventions, A Documented Briefing, Lynn A. Karoly, Susan S. Everingham, Jill Hoube, Rebecca Kilburn, C. Peter Rydell, Matthew Sanders, Peter W. Greenwood, April, 1997
(ASEAN):Preparing Students for Regional Mobility/Integration
Engineering
Nursing service
Architectural services
Surveying qualification
Medical practitioners
Dental practitioners
Accountancy
Tourism Professions
40
Policy frameworkGovernment
program
Sector strategies
Budget allocation
OutturnTimely
disbursements in accordance
with established policies and
priorities
Outputs Impact Outcomes
The ideal situation
IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Gaps between Ideal/Real
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11
41
Policy frameworkGovernment
program
Sector strategies
Budget allocation
OutturnTimely
disbursements in accordance
with established policies and
priorities
Outputs Impact Outcomes
IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Gaps between Ideal/Real
42
Policy frameworkGovernment
program
Sector strategies
OutturnTimely
disbursements in accordance
with established policies and
priorities
Outputs Impact OutcomesBudget allocation
(i) Result Based Planning and Budgeting
(including capital budget)
(ii) Inclusion of implementer in full budget formulation
IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Budget should be results based
43
Policy frameworkGovernment
program
Sector strategies
Budget allocation Outputs Impact Outcomes
OutturnTimely
disbursements in accordance
with established policies and
priorities
(iii) Shorter process of budget execution for generating expected output on time
(iv) Regular budget monitoring and fed back into
budget cycle
IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Timely disbursement to ensure expected outcome
44
Policy frameworkGovernment
program
Sector strategies
Budget allocation
OutturnTimely
disbursements in accordance
with established policies and
priorities
Outputs OutcomesImpact
(vi) Increase transparency and accountability at school level for higher impact (e.g. community involvement)
(v) Strengthen service delivery system at school level (e.g. revise incentive structure)
IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION AND RESULTS FOCUS:Higher transparency and accountability for max. impact
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SOCIAL ACCOUNTABILITY:Improves implementation
53.6%
82.6%
117.4%
86.9%
0.0% 0.0%
90.3%86.2%
0.0%
42.5%
35.4%
42.0%
54.2%
G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total
2010-11 NEW2010-11 NEW
IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION:Shortage of textbooks, 2010‐2011
65.4%
90.3%
107.4%
94.1% 94.1%
0.0%
102.5%106.6%
111.8%
47.4%41.5%
46.0%
73.6%
G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total
2011-12 New Textbooks Availability Rate2011-12 NEW
IMPROVED IMPLEMENTATION:Shortage of textbooks, 2011‐2012
48
SPENDING MATTERS … BUT SPENDING WISELY MATTERS MORE
Investing on inputsalone has impact ..… but only goes so far
Promoting good governance, incentives and accountability reforms can bring more “bang for buck”
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POST 2015 IN CAMBODIA- A transition point to the ESP 2014-18
- Shift from primary to ECCD and Skill oriented fields
- Greater focus on implementation and results
- (Personally) More resource on education for disabled children and those who are marginalized (follow-up agenda to EFA)
We’ve seen….
Basic Education Trends
Education Financing
Basic Education Thematic Issues
Higher Education Trends and Issues
Post 2015 in Cambodia?
However, Cambodia….
Ranks 4th in the world in poverty reduction over 5 years
Ranks 5th in the world in MDG progress
AND
Ranks 1st (in East Asia) in improvement of Human Development Index over a decade …
7%
12%
15%
16% 16%
18%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
World Vietnam EAP China Lao Cambodia
% change 2000‐2010
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