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Barbara Bryant

• 30 vet Asia/Pacific• Co-Founder –

boutique rep firm of Bryant & Tripptree

• Firm appointed, PATA Regional Director

• Former Director Hong Kong Tourism-LA

• Establish HK Film Dpt• VP Sales/Marketing

Mandarin Oriental Hotels

Slide: 3

ATME EXECUTIVE CHINA THINK TANK

Barbara Bryant, PATA North America Regional Director

February 12-13, 2009

Ron ErdmannDeputy DirectorOffice of Travel & Tourism Industries

Ron Erdmann

• Admin international travel research

• Consults with clients on use and application of information

• Role is to create and improve upon international marketing

intelligence

• Prior nearly decade with U. S. Travel & Tourism Admin until closed

• Experienced in developing and promoting rural tourism

6Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

China Research

Presented by:

Ron ErdmannOffice of Travel and Tourism IndustriesInternational Trade AdministrationU.S. Department of CommerceFebruary 2009

Presented to:

ATME:Think Tank

7Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

OTTI Resources on China

• Visitor volume to U.S. from China (monthly from I-94 form)• U.S. resident travel to China (non-stop) (monthly)• Other Data collected on DHS I-94 form (monthly—port, visa type, age of

travelers, address in U.S., etc.)

• Visitor volume forecast (semi-annual)

• Visitor spending (annual)• Visitor profile (annual)• U.S. resident travel to China (annual)• Chinese visitation to all countries (annual)

• China Outbound Study (one-time special study)• China Travel Trade Barometer (quarterly planned)

8Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

The China Outbound Travel Market

9Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

China Outbound Travel

25,330.9

40,891.4

5,643.2

11,174.03,151.4

4,808.4

1,216.2

1,834.7

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000Total Outbound Travel

Total Long-haul Travel

Data from China National Tourism Office and Global Insight – Global Travel Navigator May 2008

10Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

China Outbound Trends(total outbound travelers)

Destination 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 06/01 11/06 11/01

GRAND TOTAL 11,170 15,097 15,711 21,536 22,753 25,120 28,299 31,585 34,775 38,183 41,789 13,949 16,670 30,619

Asia 9,346 12,695 13,521 18,914 19,920 22,066 24,986 27,929 30,784 33,816 37,019 12,720 14,953 27,673

Europe 1,398 1,963 1,831 2,164 2,270 2,387 2,588 2,850 3,108 3,395 3,717 989 1,330 2,319

North America 319 322 234 304 387 465 508 568 625 690 745 146 280 426

Middle East 35 46 54 73 92 117 126 140 156 173 193 82 76 158

Latin America 32 33 32 41 43 44 49 54 59 64 70 12 25 37

Africa 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 0 0 0

Caribbean 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 0 5 6

Hong Kong 4,449 6,825 8,467 11,886 12,730 13,761 15,639 17,544 19,386 21,324 23,349 9,313 9,588 18,900

Macao 1,309 1,726 1,431 2,191 2,370 2,627 2,986 3,350 3,701 4,071 4,458 1,319 1,831 3,149

Singapore 460 666 560 880 858 1,037 1,189 1,322 1,449 1,585 1,727 577 690 1,267

Thailand 801 798 607 779 762 914 993 1,104 1,222 1,361 1,524 113 610 723

Korea, Republic 482 539 513 627 710 897 1,019 1,113 1,202 1,298 1,402 415 505 920

Japan 391 452 449 616 653 812 906 998 1,089 1,187 1,295 421 484 904

Vietnam 625 660 693 778 753 791 883 982 1,078 1,183 1,295 166 504 670

Italy 394 531 480 728 725 758 815 897 977 1,063 1,157 365 399 763

Russia 461 725 680 661 691 722 791 871 953 1,050 1,164 261 442 703

Malaysia 453 558 351 550 352 439 504 560 614 671 732 -14 292 279

Germany 237 270 268 293 313 327 358 395 430 468 509 90 181 272

United States 232 226 157 203 270 320 353 394 433 479 516 88 195 283

Australia 158 190 176 251 285 309 344 376 407 441 478 150 170 320

Canada 87 96 76 102 117 145 155 174 192 210 229 58 84 142

Sw itzerland 49 69 63 100 137 144 154 170 185 201 219 94 75 170

Indonesia 32 37 41 51 112 117 134 149 164 179 195 85 78 163

Belgium 62 113 107 114 109 114 122 134 146 159 173 52 60 111

Netherlands 81 82 78 82 97 113 121 134 146 158 172 32 59 92

United Kingdom 58 64 68 95 92 99 109 120 131 142 155 41 56 97

Data from China National Tourism Office and Global Insight – Global Travel Navigator May 2008

11Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

U.S. Market Share of Long-haul Travel

U.S. Market Share of Long-haul Travel

17%16%

13%14%

13%

9%7% 8%

9% 10%12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

12%12%12%12%12%12%13%12%14%16%16%

18%18%

21%22%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f

U.S. % share of long-haul Long-haul % share of outbound

12Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

What is Known about China Outbound Travel?

Total Outbound

• 25 million in 2006• Only 12% to long-haul destinations; 70% to Hong

Kong/Macau/Singapore.• Strong growth across most top 20 destinations, especially Hong

Kong, Macau, Korea, Italy, Australia.• Tripling of travelers to Hong Kong from 2001-2006 (4.5M to 14M)• Top long-haul destinations in 2006: Italy (807K), Russia (720K),

Germany (442K), US (321K), & Australia (309K).• Total travel to all long-haul destinations was 3.2 million in 2006,

forecast to grow to 4.8 million by 2011.

Sources: Global Insights Inc. Global Travel Navigator; OTTI, UNWTO

13Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Chinese Visitors to the U.S.

000s of visitors16th

14Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

China Spending in the U.S.

$335 $378 $424

$907

$1,243$1,291

$947

$1,424$1,326$1,185

$858$1,115

$1,534

$2,071

$2,699

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Millions of Dollars10th

15Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

What is Known about China Outbound Travel

to the U.S.?• Outbound to the U.S.:

– 397,000 visitors to the U.S. in 2007—near doubling in six years.– Flat visitor volume from 1993 to 2003. – 25% growth through November 2008, but slowing considerably.

• U.S. share of Chinese outbound travel has declined for two reasons:– Long-haul travel has declined as a share of total outbound– U.S. share of long-haul had declined until four years ago. Share of

long-haul has increased.

Sources: Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTTI) & Global Insights Inc. Global Travel Navigator

16Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

What is Known about China Outbound Travel

to the U.S.?• Trip Characteristics:

– Port of Entry: San Francisco (21%), Chicago (17%), LA (17%), NYC (10%).– Destinations: concentrated in a few states (CA-57%, NY-32%, followed

by: NV, DC, IL)– Main Purpose of Trip: Business -51%; Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) -

23%; Convention - 11%; & Leisure/vacation 9%. – Accommodations: 83% stay in hotels.– Stay length: mean average of 28 nights, but is influenced by a few

staying for a very long period of time. Median is 11 nights. – Activities: Chinese are less active travelers than average travelers.

• OTTI tracks 25 Activities• Top activities 2007: Shopping (88%), Dining in Restaurants (80%), Sightseeing in Cities

(51%), Visit Historical Places (47%), Visit National Parks (29%), Visit Amusement/theme parks (28%) …..

Source: OTTI , Survey of International Air Travelers, 2007.

17Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

What is Known about China Outbound Travel

to the U.S.?• Trip Characteristics (continued):

– Gender: 70% male. Female proportion is increasing.– Age: Males—41 mean / 39 median; Females—36 mean / 35 median.– Income: lower than most origin countries.

• $63,900 (mean)• $36,700 (median)

– Spending: highest spending per traveler of any country ($5,200 at destinations, i.e., excluding airfares). High spending relative to income may reflect saving for “dream vacation” and souvenir purchases made on behalf of friends/relatives.

– Looking ahead:• Trip characteristics will likely change if group leisure increases.

Source: OTTI , Survey of International Air Travelers, 2007.

18Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

U.S. China MOU on Group Leisure Travel

• Under to U.S. law Chinese can visit so long as they receive a visa.

• Under Chinese law, Chinese travel agencies can only sell packaged leisure tours to Chinese to countries with whom they have a bilateral agreement or ADS

• In December 2007 U.S. China Tourism MOU Signed

• MOU implemented in 2 phases– Phase 1: July 2008 covers 9 provinces (over 70 % of the market)– Phase 2: U.S. is ready to implement when China agrees

19Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

U.S. China MOU on Group Leisure TravelKey Provisions

• China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) authorized travel agencies may work with tour operators who are vetted by associations with programs approved by CNTA

• U.S. travel destinations able to market their brand in China

• To date NTA is the only U.S. association with a program

• In China the Government sets and monitors standards

• In the US the industry sets and monitors standards.

20Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Supply Side Considerations

• Liberalized restricted agreement (no open skies)

• Non-stop current cap of 10 flights/day per “side”– U.S. at cap (based on January non-stop OAG schedule.– China at half the cap level.– Thus, based on current caps, short-term growth in non-stop

flights must come from Chinese carriers. Long-term growth must come from upward-adjusted caps.

– 57% of all traffic between China and U.S. (inbound+outbound) is non-stop. Non-stop is growing as a share of all traffic.

21Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Who’s Flying Whom?

• Traffic Mix: – US Flag = 58%, & Foreign Flag = 42% of total air traffic– 62% U.S. Citizens vs. 38% Non-Citizens

• Chinese to the U.S.:– 40% fly foreign flag carriers– 60% of U.S. carriers

• Americans to China:– 57% fly U.S. carriers– 43% of foreign flag carriers

22Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

China Outbound Travel Study

• Purpose: to develop a fuller understanding of the China outbound travel market in support of increasing tourism exports to the U.S.

• Collaboration among:– Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Travel & Tourism Industry Center, University South

Carolina– U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel & Tourism Industries (OTT)– U.S. Travel Association– Over 20 U.S. destination and travel-industry partners

• Multi-phase comprehensive project:– Qualitative and quantitative components– Methods: Telephone / focus-group / in-depth interviews– Surveys of long-haul travelers, U.S. visitors, Chinese government officials,

Chinese travel trade– Focuses on Chinese long-haul travelers outside of Asia

23Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

phone interviewsin China

(n=1600)

in-person customer interviews in the

U.S. (n=400)

Phase 3

11 customer focusgroups in 11

Chinesecities

(n=8/session)

governmentofficial interviews

(n=20)

travel trade interviews

(n=30)

telephone surveyin 11 Chinese cities

(n= 7,000)Phase 1

China Outbound Travel Study Phases and Elements

Phase 2

Secondary Source Review

(Demographics, Economics, Politics)

24Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Phase I Telephone SurveyMethodology

• Purpose: gain better understanding of Chinese long-haul travel market– Potential of U.S. destinations and businesses– Chinese views of the U.S.

• Focus: on Chinese who…– Have traveled outside of China– Are at least somewhat likely to travel outside of China– Are at least somewhat likely to/interested in visiting the United States

• Method:– Telephone interview– 7000 randomly selected Chinese adults, ages 18 and older from 11 urban areas– 3 “tier 1” cities; 8 “tier 2 cities” accounting for virtually all outbound travel

25Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Cities Surveyed3 Tier 1; 8 Tier II

26Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Outbound Travel

• Low outbound travel incidence– 8% 1+ leisure trips outside mainland China past 3 years– 10% 1+ leisure trips outside Asia past 3 years– 21% are “at least somewhat” likely to travel outside of Asia in the next two

years

• Most travel to nearby Asian countries– U.S. top non-Asian country (9%)– Most visitations connected to Landmark/Sightseeing cities and cities with China

towns

27Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Possible future travel

• 21% of Chinese “at least” somewhat likely to travel outside of China in next two years– Most likely destinations are Asian– France ranked third (12%)– America ranked sixth (10%)

• 35% are “at least somewhat” Interested in traveling to America– A significant amount would like to but are unlikely to travel to America

• When asked to pick one dream destination– America was number one– Only two Asian countries made top ten– Difference between desire and perception of possible or likely

28Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Chinese attitudes

• America is…– Dominant; Exciting; Successful

• America isn’t– Friendly; Safe; Familiar

• Want to come to America to…– Learning and Discovery– Experiencing a different culture– Seeing something new and different

• Interests– Seeing and experiencing something new and different important to Chinese tourist– Sightseeing cities, landmarks, and tourist attractions scored high– Rest and relaxation--scored moderately high.– Interest in traditional vacations to resorts & beaches was low. Chinese tourist has a

different ideas on rest & relaxation or how to facilitate it

29Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Dream Destinations The United States is the most frequently cited dream destination

for Chinese citizens, followed by France.

(n=7,000)

United States 13%

France 10%

Australia 7%

Japan 5%

United Kingdom 4%

Canada 4%

Singapore 4%

“The statue of Liberty is so famous as a national symbol – I would be eager to see it. The

USA’s advanced economy is another attraction for me, as I

want to experience this in-person.“

Traveler, Xian

“Hollywood in LA and Disneyland – such modern

developments attract me to the U.S. very much.”

Traveler, Wuhan

“ Europe has a deep cultural background and is full of historical attractions. In addition, each historical

attraction has its own style and this enables each different country in Europe to present a

different culture.”Traveler, Chongqing

“You can go to see the glaciers and national parks in Canada – such natural sceneries are the

most famous attractions of Canada.”

Traveler, Wuhan

30Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Activity Importance vs. U.S. Perception

35%

34%

34%

32%

27%

28%

28%28%

31%

31%

31%

37%

38%

44%

Chinese communities

Smalltowns/Countryside

Art galleries/Museums

National parks

City sightseeing

Beach/Waterfront

Historic/Heritage sites

Extremely Important (5)

U.S. Offers a lot (5)

“The performance by the native Hawaiians was

fantastic – it gave history and drama to us tourists.”

Traveler, Guangzhou

“The buildings’ architecture in New York was unique – every building had its own

design and structure.”Traveler, Wuhan

“The most impressive sight I saw is the Grand Canyon –

it is really a miracle.”Traveler, Shenzhen

31Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Phase II Focus GroupsMethodology

• Purpose: Qualitative assessment of…– views of the U.S. as a country and leisure destination– competing destinations– destination choice process– marketing insights for U.S. business and destinations to promote travel exports

• Method:– 8 participants per group

• 4 previous leisure travelers to the U.S. (or business trip with leisure component) in past 3 years

• 4 previous leisure travelers to other long-haul destinations (or business trip with leisure component) in past 3 years

– One focus group in each of same 11 tier 1 and tier 2 cities from Phase I phone survey

32Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Common Themes

• Desire and affinity to experience the outdoors and natural wonders

• Taking lots of pictures/ having ample time at sightseeing locations to take lots of pictures

• Fear of violence in America/ wide spread gun owner ship

• The need to have mandarin translations/ uncomfortable with not knowing what is said or is going on

• The feeling that Americans are nice but do not respect them or believe they have money to spend and make our hospitality worth while

• Mandarin Hotline to contact incase of emergency

33Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

China Study Phase IIITraveler Segments

• USA FocusHave visited the U.S. - 400 in person Interviews

• China Traveler MarketPhone Interviews with 1,600 Identified Chinese Travelers– Outside Asia

Have traveled outside of Asia, but have not visited the U.S.

– Within AsiaHave not traveled outside of Asia, but plan to (but not U.S.)

– Potential Have not traveled outside of Asia, but plan to (including the U.S.)

34Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

China Study Phase IIIFocus of Questions

• Images of the U.S. as a Leisure Travel Destination

• Atmosphere or Mood of US Expected to Experience

• Distinctive Tourist Cities & States in U.S.

• Distinctive Tourist Attractions in the U.S.

• Activity Participation & Comparison of US to others

• Factors when deciding on a leisure destination, with comparisons of the US to other destinations

• Use of Media & MORE…………………….

35Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce (February 2009)

Some Additional Sources of Information on China

• USTravel – China Study Phases I – III, see US Travel Website

• U.S. Department of Commerce

• Office of Travel & Tourism Industries – www.tinet.ita.doc.gov

– Monthly Arrival Figures

– Monthly Air Traffic Data to and from China

– Annual Survey of Chinese Travelers to US & U.S. to China

– Inbound Forecasts (2 per year) & Annual Spending Estimates

• U.S. Commercial Service Offices in China

– See Website - http://trade.gov/cs/

– Also Offering China Webinar February 18th - See OTTI TInews

Heather HardwickVice PresidentMenlo Consulting

Heather Hardwick

• Specialty is marketing analysis, strategic planning, branding and product development

• Strong expertise in educational travel, adventure travel, group travel and cruising

• Frequent speaker

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

Examining the Outbound Travel Market from China

Heather HardwickVice President

Menlo Consulting GroupFebruary 12, 2009

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

China Market Overview

Most populous country in the world

World’s fourth largest economy

World’s third largest country by area

Key cities and gateways include Beijing (15M), Shanghai (17.5M) and Guangzhou (10M)

World’s #1 Internet users and mobile communications users

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

Most populous nation and growing

1,360

1,307

1,134

981

1,200

1,263

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1980 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010p

Pe

rso

ns

(M

illi

on

s)

Source: World Bank World Development Indicators; Chinese State Population and Family Planning Commission

Population of China

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

China’s Growing Middle Class

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2005 2007 2009 2011 2015

Ho

us

eh

old

s (

Mil

lio

ns

)

Source: McKinsey Quarterly

Upper Middle Class(HHI ~USD 5K-12.5K)

Lower Middle Class (HHI ~USD 3K-5K)

Number of Chinese Households in Middle Class

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

GDP is expected to continue to grow, albeit at a somewhat slower rate

8.6%8.5%8.2%

7.2%

6.0%

10.4%10.1%

11.1% 11.4%

9.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p 2009p 2010p 2011p 2012p 2013p

Ye

ar

ov

er

Ye

ar

Gro

wth

Ra

tes

(%

)

Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics; The Economist

Actual and Projected China GDP Growth Rates

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

Chinese outbound travel is booming

8.4 9.2 10.5 12.1

16.620.2

28.931.0

34.5

41.0

0

10

20

30

40

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Pe

rso

ns

(m

illi

on

s)

Source: CNTA, compiled by Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)

Outbound travel from China and Hong Kong

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

Double digit growth has become the norm

12.3%

18.6%

11.3%

36.8%

15.9% 21.7%

42.8%

7.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ye

ar

ov

er

Ye

ar

% C

ha

ng

e

Sources: CNTA, PATA

Growth rates in outbound travel from China and Hong Kong

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

China’s growing travel spending

21.824.3

29.8

19.1

13.913.115.4 15.2

0

10

20

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

US

D (

Bil

lio

ns

)

International Tourism Expenditures

Sources: UNWTO, China State Foreign Exchange Administration

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

Most outbound travel is within Asia

Source: relevant NTOs, compiled by Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2004 2006 2007

Tra

ve

lers

Singapore

Vietnam

Thailand

Korea

Japan

Malaysia

Australia

USA

Top Asia Pacific destinations for travelers from China

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

Chinese travel to North America is taking off

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Tra

ve

lers

Arrivals to North America from China PRC

Source: Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)

Canada

USA

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

California has seen substantial growth from China in recent years

Source: International Trade Administration, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries.

Number of Visitors from China to CA, 1998-2007(in 000s)

134 149120

146

197227

109

158

71101

0

100

200

300

400

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

California is making a move in the market

California opened an office in China in January 2009All (100%) Chinese view a Chinese Web site as the most important way for them to learn about California.Only 1% Chinese consumers and a handful of tour operators and media reps have been to California. Almost all Chinese know of Los Angeles and San Francisco. They also have special ties to China as sister cities to Guangzhou and Shanghai. One-third recognize San Diego.Motivations for visiting California include nature/parks, theme parks, and sunshine

Source: California Travel and Tourism Commission (CTTC)

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

What drives Chinese tourists to California?

Events/Activities Consumer Media Tour Operator

Theme Parks 2 1 1

National Parks & World Heritage 1 2 2

Shopping 3 3 4

Entertainment & Nightlife 4 4 6

Art & Culture 2 5 5

Wine & Food 5 6 3

Source: California Travel and Tourism Commission (CTTC)

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

Outlook for China

Continuing, albeit slowed, economic growth

Growth in outbound travel is expected to continue

Increasing linkages to international destinations and organizations

Competition for the Chinese traveler intensifying

With the MOU, and increased marketing in China, the USA stands to benefit from strong inbound traffic

MENLO CONSULTING GROUP, INC.

mmCCGGMENLO CONSULTING GROUP

PALO ALTO, CALIFORNIA

www.menloconsulting.com

Frank HaasAssistant DeanUniversity of HawaiiSchool of Travel Industry Management

Frank Haas

• Teaches courses in marketing and Executive Development in Tourism Program

• Undertaken planning projects for tourism, government and non-profit corporations

• Formerly VP Marketing Hawaii Tourist Authority

• $50 million dollar budget

The Chinese Travel Market:Open Carefully

Frank Haas

University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa

School of Travel Industry Management

In China … Everything is possible –

Nothing is easy

In China …

Negotiation starts

After the contract is signed

Bottom Line

Huge potential … but developing the potential will take work

Responsible Development

• Hysteria … or irrational exuberance – 100 million outbound tourists by 2020– 25 million outbound overnight trips in 2006 … 350%

increase since 1997

• Reality … – A significant and growing market, but … – 16.3 million of the 25.3M travelled to Hong Kong or

Macau (64%)– 392.6 U.S. arrivals in 2007 – projected to 578.5 in

2011 (rank = 20)

Good News: Time for Orderly Development

Motivation for Hong Kong and Macau Travel

What We Can Learn from the Development of the Japan

Market in Hawai‘i

To cover …

• Be prepared for culture shock … – Learn from experience

• The China market we’ve seen recently probably isn’t the market post MOA

• Relationships matter

• What we’ve seen with our 56,000 Chinese visitors

Historical Trends (arrivals)

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

Thousands

Total Domestic International

International Arrivals Percent

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

International Arrivals Percent

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

Early 70s – Hawai‘i Gets Serious

Chinese Arrivals in Hawai‘i

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Chinese Arrivals % of Total

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0.9%

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Opening a huge new market means dealing with first time

travelers … and first time encounters with Western culture

Culture Shock

Problem: Destination Was Focused on Domestic Visitors

• Limited staff possessing multiple language skills– Japanese visitors were dependent on

Japanese speaking guides– Confusion in accommodations

• Hotel amenities weren’t culturally appropriate; fixtures were “foreign”

• Lack of appropriate experiences – especially food

Language Limitations

• Visitors were dependent on their guides

• Guides were often driven by commission

• Result: visitors didn’t always get an ideal experience … and satisfaction suffered

• Guided tours caused large groups to visit attractions, restaurants, etc. en masse, overwhelming capacity

Confusion in Accommodations

• As the Japan market developed, first time visitors encountered strange/unexpected features and fixtures … – How to work the plumbing?? Electrical

appliances?? Call the front desk and no one speaks Japanese

– No green tea/teapots in the room– No drains in the bathroom floor

Lack of Appropriate Experiences

• Japanese were consumers of mass tourism as westerners were becoming more independent

• Japanese wanted quality Japanese food … breakfast, lunch and dinner

• No tipping

Cultural Differences

• Visitors carried large amounts of cash … vulnerable to robberies and purse snatchings

• Prevalence of smoking

• Golf

The Retail Experience

What we were selling …

What they wanted to buy …

Solutions Came with Critical Mass

The French Festival

Chinese visitors … so far … have not mimicked the early Japan

visitor

Because of lack of Approved Destination Status and entry

restrictions … Chinese visitors to date

have been senior government and business

officials

Visitor Spending$US Per Person Per Day

US West $155.90

US East $192.80

Japan $268.80

China $377.20

Some Emerging Issues(2003 Hawai‘i Post Arrival Survey)

• Chinese food (especially good Chinese food) is a driver of satisfaction

• Language barriers were linked to perceived cultural discrimination

• Negatives … – Service quality (knowledgeable in Chinese

service expectations)– Time constraints (guides pushing too many

activities)

If Chinese tourism booms … there will be a change in

character as class goes to mass

What We Think We’ll See

• Shopping will include “authentic” luxury items … and …

• Gifts and souvenirs for family and friends at home … and

• Vitamins, supplements and other “safe” products• Chinatowns and China connections are a draw• Need for acceptance of Chinese credit (China

Union Pay)

• More Chinese speaking staff … through training or new hires– HTA contract with the Community College

system

• Developing retail, food and beverage and hotel amenities that appeal to the Chinese

• Learn to manage diverse cultures in the visitor mix

• Political events pose a risk

• Over time, we’ll see the market evolve from GIT PITFIT– The market to Hawai‘i is about 30% FIT at the

moment, but that will change with volume

• Satisfaction may be sub-par until language and product are aligned … feeling of cultural discrimination

• Prepare for cultural differences – i.e. tipping, smoking, group mentality

Relationships Count

Titles and Official Status Matter

Understand that we have competition … regional Asian

travel

Mahalo … Arigato … Xie Xie

谢谢

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