bao cao xstk nhom 7
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Bi 1:
A. V d 3.4/161 SGKHiu sut phn trm (%) ca mt phn ng ha hc c nghin cu theo ba yu t: pH (A),
nhit (B) v cht xc tc (C) c trnh by trong bng sau:
Yu t A
Yu t B
B1 B2 B3 B4
A1 C1 9 C2 14 C3 16 C4 12
A2 C2 12 C3 15 C4 12 C1 10
A3 C3 13 C4 14 C1 11 C2 14
A4 C4 10 C1 11 C2 13 C3 13
Hy nh gi v nh hng ca cc yu t trn n hiu sut phn ng?
Phng php:PHN TCH PHNG SAI BA YU T
Bi lm:
Nhp d liu vo bng tnh
Thit lp cc biu thc v tnh cc gi tr thng k
Tnh cc gi tr Ti.., T.j., T..k v T...
Cc gi tr Ti..(tng cc hng trn bng d liu)
Chn B7 v chn biu thc =SUM(B2:E2)
Chn C7 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B3:E3)
Chn D7 v nhp biu thc=SUM(B4:E4)
Chn E7 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B4:E4)
Cc gi tr T.j.(tng cc ct trn bng d liu)
Chn B8 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B2:B5)
Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t B8 n E8
Cc gi tr T..k
Chn B9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B2,C5,D4,E3)
Chn C9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B3,C2,D5,E4)
Chn D9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B4,C3,D2,E5)
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Chn E9 v nhp biu thc =SUM(B5,C4,D3,E2)
Gi tr T
Chn B10 v nhp biu thc=SUM(B2:E5)
Tnh cc gi tr G
Chn G7 v nhp biu thc =SUMSQ(B7:E7)Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t G7 n G9
Chn G10 v nhp biu thc =POWER(B10,2)
Chn G11 v nhp biu thc =SUMSQ(B2:E5)
Tnh cc gi tr SSR, SSC, SSF, SST v SSE
Cc gi tr SSR, SSC, SSF
Chn I7 v nhp biu thc =G7/4-39601/POWER(4,2)
Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t I7 n I9
Gi tr SST
Chn I11 v nhp biu thc =G11-G10/POWER(4,2)
Gi tr SSE
Chn I10 v nhp biu thc =I11-SUM(I7:I9)
Tnh cc gi tr MSR, MSC, MSF v MSE
Gi tr MSR, MSC, MSF
Chn K7 v nhp biu thc =I7/(4-1)
Dung con tr ko k hiu t in t K7 n K9
Gi tr MSE
Chn K10 v nhp biu thc =I/((4-1)*(4-2))
Tnh cc gi tr F:
Chn M7 v nhp biu thc =K7/$K$10
Dng con tr ko k hiu t in t M7 n M9.
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Ktqu v bin lun:
FR=3.10 chp nhn H0 (pH)
FC=11.95 >F0.05(3,6)=4.76 => bc b H0 (nhit )
F=30.05 >F0.05(3,6)=4.76 => bc b H0 (cht xc tc)
Vy ch c nhit v cht xc tc gy nh hng n hiu sut phn ng.
B. V d 4.2/170 SGK
Ngi ta dng ba mc nhit gm 105, 120 v 135C kt hp vi ba khong thi gian l 15,30 v 60 pht thc hin mt phn ng tng hp. Cc hiu sut ca phn ng (%) c trnh
by trong bng sau:
Thi gian (pht) Nhit (C) Hiu sut (%)
X1 X2 Y
15 105 1.87
30 105 2.02
60 105 3.28
15 120 3.05
30 120 4.07
60 120 5.54
15 135 5.03
30 135 6.45
60 135 7.26
Hy cho bit yu t nhit v thi gian/hoc yu t thi gian c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiusut ca phn ng tng hp? Nu c th iu kin nhit 115C trong vng 50 pht th hiu
sut phn ng s l bao nhiu?
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Bi lm:
Nhp d liu vo bng tnh
D liu nht thit phi c nhp theo ct.
p dng Regression
Nhn ln lt n lnh Tools v lnh Data Analysis
Chn chng trnh Regression trong hp thoi Data Analysis ri nhp OK
Trong hp thoi Regression, ln lt n nh cc chi tit:
Phm vi ca bin s Y (input Y range)
Phm vi ca bin s X (input X range)
Nhn d liu (Labels)
Mc tin cy (Confidence level)
Ta u ra (Output range)ng hi quy (Line Fit Plots),
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Cc gi tr u ra cho bng sau:
Phng trnh hi quy: x1=f(X1)
x1=2.73 + 0.04X1 (R2=0.21, S=1.81)
t0=2.129 < t0.05 = 2.365 (hay Pv2=0.071>=0.05) => Chp nhn gi thit H0
t1=1.380< t0.05 = 2.365 (hay Pv=0.209>=0.05) => Chp nhn gi thit H0
F=1.905 < F0.05 = 5.590 (hay Fs=0.209>=0.05) => Chp nhn gi thit H0
Vy c hai h s 2.73 (B0) v 0.04 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x1 = 2.73 + 0.04X1u khngc ngha thng k. Ni cch khc phng trnh hi quy ny khng thch hp.
Kt lun:yu t thi gian khng c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp.
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Phng trnh hi quy: x2 = f(X2)
x2 = -11.141 + 0.129X2 (R2=0.76,S=0.99)
t0 = 3.418 > t0.05 = 2.365 (hay Pv2=0.011 > =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0
t1= 4.757 > t0.05 = 2.365(hay Pv=0.00206 < =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0
F= 22.631 > F=5.590(hay Fs=0.00206 < =0.05) =>Bc b gi thit H0
Vy c hai h s-11.141 (B0) v 0.129 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x2= -11.141 + 0.129X2u c ngha thng k. Ni cch khc phng trnh hi quyny thch hp.
Kt lun:yu t nhit c lin quan tuyn tnh vi hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp.
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Phng trnh hi quy: x1,x2=f(X1,X2)
x1,x2 = -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2 (R2=0.97; S=0.33)
t0=11.528 > t0.05=2.365 (hay Pv2=2.260.10-5Bc b gi thit H0
t1=7.583 > t0.05=2.365 (hay Pv=0.00027Bc b gi thit H0
F=131.392 > 5.14 (hay Fs=1.112*10-5Bc b gi thit H0
Vy c hai h s-12.70 (B0), 0.04 (B1) v 0.13 (B1) ca phng trnh hi quy x1,x2=-12.7 +0.04X1 + 0.13X2u c ngha thng k. Ni cch khc, phng trnh hi quy ny thch hp.
Kt lun:Hiu sut ca phn ng tng hp c lin quan tuyn tnh vi c hai yu t l thi gianv nhit .
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S tuyn tnh ca phng trnh x1,x2= -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2. C th c trnh by trongbiu phn tn (scatter plots):
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 2 4 6 8 10
Predicted Y
Predicted Y
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Nu mun d on hiu sut bng phng trnh hi quy
Y= -12.70 + 0.04X1 + 0.13X2
ch cn chn mt , v d nh:
F99, sau nhp hm=F96+F97*50+F98*115 v c kt qu nh sau:
Ghi ch: F96 ta ca B0 ,F97 ta ca B1,F98 ta ca B2, 50 l gi tr ca X1(thi gian)v 115 l gi tr ca X2(nhit )
Vy hiu sut phn ng theo d on 115C trong vng 50 pht l 4.3109%.
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Bi 2:
Mt nh nng hc tin hnh vic kim nh hiu qu ca ba loi phn ny trn cc cy c chuav theo di s qu c chua mc trn mi cy. Kt qu thu c nh sau:
Loi phn
A B C
24
18
27
28
21
26
32
25
16
22
19
17
Vi mc ngha =5%, hay so snh s qu c chua mc trung bnh khi bn ba loi phn A, B,C ni trn.
Bi lm:y l bi ton phn tch phng sai mt yu t, s qu c chua mc trung bnh chu nh hng
bi loi phn bn.
Gi thit H0: 1 = 2 = 3; tc s qu c chua mc trung bnh l bng nhau
Nhp d liu vo bng:
p dng Anova: Single Factor
Nhn ln lt n lnh Tools v lnh Data Analysis.
Chn trng trnh Anova: Single Factor trong hp thoi Data Analysis ri nhn nt OK
Trong hp thoi Anova: Single Factor ln lt n nh
Phm vi u vo (Input range)
Cch xp xp theo hng hay ct (Group by)
Nhn d liu (Labels in fisrt row/column)
Phm vi u ra (Output range)
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Bng Anova:
Kt lun:
T gi tr trong bng Anova:
F= 3.8557 < F= 4.2565 => Chp nhn H0
=> Lng qu c chua mc trung bnh khi s dng cc loi phn khc nhau l nh nhau .
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Bi 3:
Bng sau y cho ta s liu v mu tc ca 422 ngi:
Mu tc Nam N
en
Hung
Nu
Vng
56
37
84
19
32
66
90
38
Vi mc ngha 3%, nhn nh xem liu c mi quan h giamu tc v gii tnh hay khng.
Bi lm:
Gi thit H0:Mu tc c lp vi gii tnh
T bng phn v 2khi bnh phng, ta c 34.111)-1)(4-(220.01 Nhp bng s liu nh hnh sau
Tnh cc tng s
+ Tng hng (ni):
Chn G2 nhp biu thc =SUM(B2:C2).
Dng con tr ko nt t in t G3 n G5.
+ Tng ct (mj):
Chn B6 nhp biu thc =SUM(B2:B5).
Dng con tr ko nt t in n C6.
+ Tng cng:
Chn D6 nhp biu thc =SUM(B6:C6) hay SUM(D2:D5).
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Tnh tn s l thuyt da vo cng thc sau:
i j
ij
n m
n
Mu en
Nam : chn G2 ri nhp biu thc: =D2*B6/D6N : chn H2 ri nhp biu thc: =D2*C6 /D6Mu hung
Nam : chn G3 ri nhp biu thc: =D3*B6/D6N : chn H3 ri nhp biu thc: =D3*C6 /D6
Mu nu
Nam : chn G4 ri nhp biu thc: =D4*B6/D6N : chn H4 ri nhp biu thc: =D4*C6 /D6
Mu vng
Nam : chn G5 ri nhp biu thc: =D5*B6/D6N : chn H5 ri nhp biu thc: =D5*C6 /D6
Sau khi s dng vi Excel ta c bng s liu ij nh sau:
p dng hm s CHITEST
Tnh xc sut P(X>2
) bng cch chn G7v nhp biu thc =CHITEST(B2:C5,G2:H5).
Kt lun:Kt qu: P(X>2
) = 0,000247
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Bi 4:
Kim tra sc khe ca 29 cng nhn nm phn xng ca nh my sn xut pin c quyngi ta o c mt nhim ch ca h nh sau:
S th tquan st
Mc nhn t
F1 F2 F3 F4 F5
12
3
4
56
7
0,250,28
0,32
0,22
0,22
0,220,25
0,24
0,28
0,310,21
0,22
0,250,26
0,28
0,25
0,220,28
0,31
0,310,33
0,30
0,29
0,25
0,220,28
0,28
0,25
0,30
Vi mc ngha = 1%,So snh mc nhim ch i vi cng nhn cc phn xng canh my ni trn.
Bi lm:
y l bi ton phn tch phng sai mt yu t.
Gi thit: H0: 1 = 2 = 3 = 4 = 5; tc mc nhim ch ca cc cng nhn 5 phn xngl bng nhau.
Nhp d liu vo bng:
p dng Anova: Single Factor
Nhn ln lt n lnh Tools v lnh Data Analysis.
Chn trng trnh Anova: Single Factor trong hp thoi Data Analysis ri nhn nt OK
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Trong hp thoi Anova: Single Factor ln lt n nh
Phm vi u vo (Input range)
Cch xp xp theo hng hay ct (Group by)
Nhn d liu (Labels in fisrt row/column)
Phm vi u ra (Output range)Chn = 0.01
Bng Anova:
Kt lun:
T gi tr trong bng Anova: F=1.5828< F=4.2184=> Chp nhn H0.
Vy mc nhim ch ca cc cng nhn 5 phn xng l bng nhau.
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Cu 5:Vi mc ngha = 2%,Hy phn tch vai tr ngnh ngh (chnh, ph) trong hot ngkinh t ca cc h gia nh mt vng nng thn trn c s bng s liu v thu nhp trung bnhca mt h tng ng vi cc ngnh ngh ni trn nh sau:
Bi lm:
1.C s l thuyt:y l dng ton phn tch phng sai hai yu t (khng lp):
( sch Gao Trnh xc sut v thng k Tc gi: PGS.TS Nguyn nh Huy phn ph lc trang154)
.Tnh ton trn my tnh:
Gi thit H0:cc gi tr trung bnh l bng nhau
i gi thit H1:cc gi tr trung bnh l khng bng nhau.
Nhp d liu vo my tnh:
p dng:Anova: Two Factor without Replication
a)Ti nhm lnh Data analysis, chn Anova:Two Factor without Replication.
b)Trong hp thoi Anova:Two Factor without Replication, ln lt n nh cc gi tr:- Phm vi u vo (input range): chn bng tnh ta va to.
-Nhn d liu (labels in first row/column)
-Ngng tin cy: Alpha = 2% = 0.02
-Phm vi u ra (output Range).
Ngh chnh Ngh ph
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Trng la (1)
Trng cy n tri (2)
Chn nui(3)
Dch b (4)
3.5
5.6
4.1
7.2
7.4
4.1
2.5
3.2
8.0
6.1
1.8
2.2
3.5
9.6
2.1
1.5
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Sau khi click OK th ta c kt qu:
Kt lun:
FR = 1.9966 < Fcrit= 5.5097=> chp nhn gi thit H0 (ngh chnh).
FC= 0.1105 < Fcrit= 5.5097=> chp nhn gi thit H0 (ngh ph).
Vy, thu nhp ca gia nh ging nhau xt cho ngh chnh hay ngh ph.
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