assessment of future change stan gregory department of fisheries & wildlife oregon state...

AssessmentAssessment

Of Future ChangeOf Future Change

Stan Gregory Stan Gregory

Department of Fisheries & Department of Fisheries & WildlifeWildlife

Oregon State UniversityOregon State University

Coastal Coho Salmon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Ind

ex o

f A

bu

nd

ance

1850

1995

2050 Scenario

2050 Conservation Scenario

1850

Models of Models of stream stream

ecosystem ecosystem structure structure

and functionand function

WillametteRiver Basin

2nd to 4thorder

streams(6500 km)

Cutthroat Trout

639

575

534

641

483

598 601 609 605 601618

382

827

749

823 821

790803

842826 825

841 837855

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

MF CF UW MK NS SS MW YM MP TU CL LW

Subbasin

Cut

thro

at A

bund

ance

EPT Richness

7.2

6.1

7.9

7.1 7.2

6.66.1 6.2 6.2 6.1

6.6

5.0

11.8

11.0

11.911.7 11.6 11.5

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0

11.4

10.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

MF CF UW MK NS SS MW YM MP TU CL LW

Subbasin

EPT

Ric

hnes

s

Fish Richness – Fish Richness – Species/kmSpecies/km

Tributary JunctionTributary Junction 19.719.7

Multiple ChannelMultiple Channel 19.219.2

Single ChannelSingle Channel 16.816.8

Fish Abundance – # Fish Abundance – # CapturedCaptured

Tributary JunctionTributary Junction 624624

Multiple ChannelMultiple Channel 594594

Single ChannelSingle Channel 390390

MMcKenzie Jct

Willamette River Basin Planning Atlas, p. 63

Fish50 Year

PatternOf Change

Develop.50 Year

PatternOfChange

ERC ConservationERC Conservation

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Years

Scor

e

Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish

MAX ConservationMAX Conservation

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Years

Scor

e

Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish

ERC DevelopmentERC Development

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Years

Scor

e

Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish

MAX DevelopmentMAX Development

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Years

Scor

e

Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish

Median Land ValueMedian Land Value

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Years

Land

Val

ue

MAX DEV ERC DEV ERC CONS MAX CONS

Fish10 Years

Fish20 Years

Fish30 Years

Fish40 Years

Fish50 Years

Development10 Years

Development20 Years

Development30 Years

Development40 Years

Development50 Years

What did we forget?What did we forget?What don’t we know?What don’t we know?

Willamette River Basin

Planning Atlas