arun b. shrestha

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

River Basin Programme of ICIMOD: In support of reducing physical vulnerabilities and improving food and energy security

Arun B. Shrestha

4th Third Pole Environment WorkshopMarch 2013Dehradun

The “Third Pole”

Largest reserve of snow and ice outside the polar regions

The “water tower”

• Amu Darya• Indus• Ganges• Brahmaputra

(Yarlungtsanpo)• Irrawaddy • Salween (Nu)• Mekong (Lancang)• Yangtse (Jinsha)• Yellow River

(Huanghe)• Tarim (Dayan)

These River Basins provide services to 1.3 billion people, a fifth of the world’s population (ICIMOD, 2009)

Different sources of moisture

(IICIMOD 2008)

JJAS

DJF

Sensitivity to climate change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3y = -161.57 + 0.081443x R= 0.59188

=8.09=0.33

Temperature A

nomaly ( oC

)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

y = -134.43 + 0.068 x R= 0.49862 =20.22=0.31

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

)

Year

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3y = -184.44 + 0.093 x R= 0.65632 =-3.09=0.39

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (o C

) a.

b.

c.

d.

Shrestha et al. 2009

HKH

HKH

Indus

Runoff partioning

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091

Q (m

3 /s)

rainbaseflowsnowglacier

0

300

600

900

1200

2005 2025 2050 2075

(mm

)

Glacial runoffSnow runoffRain runoffBaseflow

At catchment scale (Langtang) deglaciation does not result in reduction in the runoff

Immerzeel et al., 2012

Rees et al. (2004)

T=0.06oC/yrP=15%/yr

Immerzeel et al., 2010; Science vol 328

Role of snow and ice

UNEP, 2007

Water scarcity

(IWMI 2008).

Growing Water Demand

Rosengrant et al., 2002

Why River Basin Programme ?

• Dublin Statement (1992) “the river basin is the most appropriate geographical entity for the planning and management of water resources”

• Development in RS and GIS has allowed to conduct study and analysis at river basin scale

• Recent studies on freshwater vulnerability at river basin scale (e.g. WDRG, Finland) suggested Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra as most vulnerable river basins

ICIMOD’s River Basin Programme• Challenges: To manage the problem of too

much water in the wet season and too little water in the dry season and the consequences for water-related hazards and food, energy, and environmental security

• Goal: Improved integrated river basin management to reduce physical vulnerabilities and improve food and energy security for mountain and downstream communities in the HKH region while recognizing upstream interests

Major Outputs

• River-basin wide information and analysis related to water management practices

• Climate change impact assessment of future water availability and risk scenarios for various sectors

• Gender sensitive and equitable IWRM and governance approaches to improve access to and use of water and hazard risk

• Establishment of regional flood and drought information system and vulnerability assessments

• Framework for regional cooperation on sharing regional flood data and information among RMCs

Major Outputs (contd.)

• Policy-relevant recommendations for water resources programmes the water-food-energy nexus;

• Capacity building of regional partners’ on mountain-specific IWRM and DRR

• Basin-wide and regional knowledge hubs

Cross cutting issues

• Gender and social inclusion: – Preparation of gender sensitive water

induced risk assessment , identification of challenges and capacity gaps women face in order to adapt to climate change impacts;

– documentation of best practices and policies, focusing on gender sensitive and inclusive approaches;

– preparation of a toolkit of adaptation strategies at the river basin level for vulnerable socioeconomic groups over a range of geospatial settings.

Cross cutting issues (contd.)

• Economic analysis and governance: – An assessment of the feasibility of planning

IWRM strategies– development of innovative approaches to

improving water resource management in a sustainable manner, through benefit sharing between u/s and d/s

– evidence- and knowledge-based discussions among decision and policymakers.

Initiatives of River Basin Programme

Indus Basin Initiative

• To develop better understanding long-term climate trends and short-term climate variability

• To enhance understanding of cryosphere dynamics

• To study impact of climate change and its variation on water availability

• Risk assessment of climate induced hazards on livelihood of vulnerable communities of UIB

• To study the Impact of UIB hydrological change on agriculture and socio economic conditions of downstream vulnerable sectors

• To support adaptation to the impact of climate change on agriculture and water management

http://geoportal.icimod.org/indusbasin/

HYCOS Initiative

• Strengthen the framework for cooperation for sharing regional flood data and information

• Establish a flood observation network in selected rivers

• Establish regional and national flood information systems to share real time data and information and increase lead time

• Enhance the technical capacity of partners on flood forecasting and communication with end users

http://hkhhycos.icimod.org/

Koshi Basin Initiative

• Support evidence-based policy interventions through the development of knowledge on impact of climatic and socioeconomic drivers

• Develop and test actionable and appropriate adaptation pilots and livelihood strategies

• Contribute to developing an enabling environment for policy and decision makers to create integrated, innovative, equitable, inclusive, and effective responses

http://www.icimod.org/?q=9037

Stages of Koshi Initiative

We work for

Communities

Private Sector

Policy / decision makers

National Government

Thank you