applications of case-based reasoning in product formulation ray rowe astrazeneca & profits

Applications Applications ofof

Case-Based Reasoning Case-Based Reasoning in in

Product FormulationProduct Formulation

Ray RoweRay RoweAstraZenecaAstraZeneca

&&PROFITSPROFITS

Structure of TalkStructure of Talk

Product formulation and process Rule-based applications Benefits and issues Advantages of Case-based Reasoning Case-based applications Benefits, issues, views, future

Product FormulationProduct Formulation

The production of novel or enhanced effects by the blending/mixing and processing of chemicals.

Used by many industries to produce marketable products

Increased need for innovation due to shortening life cycles

Highly competitive environment

Formulation TasksFormulation Tasks

SPECIFICATION FORMULATION

INGREDIENTS

COMMERCIAL FACTORS

PRODUCTION FACTORS

PAST FORMULATIONS

MODELS

y = (x)

S

N N

Cl

ACTIVE INGREDIENT

$

Information FlowsInformation Flows

The Formulation ProcessThe Formulation Process

MarketDemand

Costs

Ingredients

FormulatorSpecification Product

Processing Models Properties

MarketDemand

Costs

Ingredients

FormulatorSpecification Product

Processing Models Properties

Product FormulationProduct Formulation

Complex process carried out in a design space that is multidimensional in nature and extremely difficult to conceptualise.

Specialised task requiring specific knowledge and often experience.

Artificial Intelligence in Artificial Intelligence in Product FormulationProduct Formulation

Technologies relevant to Product Formulation:

Rule-based reasoning - formulation development

Case-based reasoning

Neural networks - formulation modelling

Genetic algorithms - formulation optimisation

Neurofuzzy logic - formulation rules

Growth of Applications of Rule-Growth of Applications of Rule-Based Systems for Product Based Systems for Product FormulationFormulation

Year Total publications Pharmaceutical publications

1985 – 1990 17 2

1991 – 1995 17 11

1995 – 2001 16 13

Applications of Rule -Based Applications of Rule -Based Systems for Pharmaceutical Systems for Pharmaceutical FormulationFormulation

Tablets - ICI/Zeneca/AstraZeneca (1988 et sequens) - Cadila Labs (1992) - Japanese consortium (1998) - Pfizer (2000) Capsules - Pfizer (1989) - Capsugel (1995) - Sanofi (1996) - Japanese consortium (1998) Injections - University of Heidelberg (1991 et sequens) - Zeneca/AstraZeneca (1994 et sequens)

Applications of Rule-Based Applications of Rule-Based Systems for TextilesSystems for Textiles

WOOLY --Wool dyeing - Sandoz (1988) OPTIMIST - Dyeing - BASF (1988) PREMATIC - Cotton bleaching - Ciba (1989) BAFAREX - Cotton dyeing - BASF (1992) TEXPERTO - Textile finishing - Sandoz (1992) SMART MATCH - Textile colouring - DataColor (1994) BATEM - Dyeing - BRITE-EURAM (1997) COLPOCA - Colour matching - Ciba Specialty Chemicals

(2001)

Applications of Rule -Based Applications of Rule -Based Systems for Product FormulationSystems for Product Formulation

Aluminium alloys - Alcoa (1985) Lubricating oils – Shell Research (1989-1991) Agrochemicals – Rohm & Haas (1986) - Schering Agrochemicals (1987) Propellants - US Army (1988) Suncare products - Boots Company (1991) Vinyl pipes – Plasticos-Petroquimica CA (1995) plus Paints, Food relishes, Soft drinks,

Inks, Coatings and Adhesives

Benefits Accrued from using Benefits Accrued from using Rule-Based Systems for Rule-Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation

Knowledge protection and availability Consistency in decision making Training aid Increase speed of development Cost savings Freeing experts Improved communication

Business Impact from using Business Impact from using Rule-Based Systems for Rule-Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation

Enhancement of product quality and performance Development of new products and processes Shorter time to market Improved responses to customer demands Improved processing efficiency Cost savings Improved competitive edge

Benefits Accrued from using Benefits Accrued from using Rule –Based Systems for Rule –Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation

BOOTS Company (1991) Annual cost savings of £200K

Cadila Laboratories (1992) 35% reduction in time to develop new generic

tablet

Issues with Rule-Based Issues with Rule-Based Systems in Product Systems in Product FormulationFormulation

Lack of understanding of domain Domains often specialised and small Complexity of knowledge acquisition Evolution with time and practice Time and cost of development

CBR- The AdvantagesCBR- The Advantages

Solutions are quickly proposed Derivation from scratch is avoided Domains do not need to be completely

understood Cases useful for open-ended or ill-defined

concepts Case knowledge may be easy to acquire Decrease in time and cost of development

Growth in Case-Based Growth in Case-Based Reasoning in Product Reasoning in Product FormulationFormulation

Year No of Application

publications

1995 0 -

1996 1 Review

1997 2 Coloured plastics, Agrochemicals

1998 1 Tablets

1999 4 Foamed rubber, Lubricating oil

Tablets

2000 4 Tyres, Tablets

2001 5 Tablets, Tyres, Coloured plastics

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Reasoning Expert SystemsReasoning Expert Systems

FieldField ProductProduct DeveloperDeveloper

PharmaceuticalsPharmaceuticals TabletsTablets AstraZeneca/Robert GordonAstraZeneca/Robert Gordon

UniversityUniversity (UK) (UK)

AgrochemicalsAgrochemicals Water dispersibleWater dispersible Zeneca Agrochemicals/University ofZeneca Agrochemicals/University ofgranulesgranules Greenwich (UK)Greenwich (UK)

OilOil Lubricating oilLubricating oil Jiangsu Institute/Lanzhou Refinery Jiangsu Institute/Lanzhou Refinery (China)(China)

PlasticsPlastics Coloured plasticsColoured plastics General Electric (USA)General Electric (USA)

RubberRubber Foamed rubberFoamed rubber LISA/INTEREP(France)LISA/INTEREP(France)

TyresTyres Pirelli/University of Milan (Italy)Pirelli/University of Milan (Italy)

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for AgrochemicalsSystems for AgrochemicalsZeneca Agrochemicals /University of Zeneca Agrochemicals /University of Greenwich (1997)Greenwich (1997)

Case-based system for formulating water dispersible granules

Prototype using CBR-Works Case base of formulations of carbendazin Retrieval only, no adaptation Formulations consistent with expert opinion

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for RubberSystems for Rubber LISA/INTEREP (1999)LISA/INTEREP (1999)

Case-based system for formulating closed- cell rubber structures (ACCELERE)

Domain complex with no model or strong theory

Case base of over 1000 designs Retrieval only, no adaptation Formulations listed in order for browsing

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for RubberSystems for Rubber Pirelli/University of Milan (2000)Pirelli/University of Milan (2000)

Case-based system for formulating tyre treads (P-Race)

Incorporates knowledge of race circuits, road conditions, tyre designs, raw materials etc. etc.

Retrieval and adaptation Formulations in general agreement with those

adopted by experts Used in championships – Sports Racing World Cup,

American Le Mans Series

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for PharmaceuticalsSystems for PharmaceuticalsAstraZeneca/Robert Gordon AstraZeneca/Robert Gordon University (1998)University (1998)

Case-based system for formulation tablets Prototype using ReCall, research project Retrieval and adaptation Retrieval and adaptation knowledge automatically

learned from cases in case base Case base small with evolutionary information Formulations in close agreement with expert opinion

and rule–based expert system

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for Coloured PlasticsSystems for Coloured PlasticsGeneral Electric Company (1997)General Electric Company (1997)

Case-based system for formulating colours for plastics (Form Tool)

Colour matches the customer’s standard colour Selects formulation for specific plastic Introduced 1995 with case-base of 1700

formulations Now part of a web based e-commerce tool (color

xpress) Over 5000 colour matches performed each year.

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for OilsSystems for OilsJiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery Jiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery (1999)(1999)

Case-based system for formulating diesel engine oil

Part of a multi-task expert system Case base of many formulations Retrieval based on similarity functions Uses rule-based system when no cases retrieved Formulations consistent with expert opinion

Applications of Case-Based Applications of Case-Based Systems for OilsSystems for OilsJiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery Jiangsu Institute/ Lanzhou Refinery (1999)(1999)

SystemSystemFormulatorFormulator

% w/w% w/w % % w/ww/w

100SN Base oil100SN Base oil 0.00.0 0.00.0

200SN Base oil200SN Base oil 78.978.981.281.2

Residual Base oilResidual Base oil 2.42.4 2.02.0

Pour point depressantPour point depressant 0.40.4 0.30.3

TackifierTackifier 10.110.1 8.08.0

Additive T109Additive T109 3.83.8 4.04.0

Additive T152Additive T152 3.13.1 3.23.2

Additive T202Additive T202 1.21.2 1.31.3

Benefits Accrued from using Benefits Accrued from using Case –Based Systems for Case –Based Systems for Product FormulationProduct Formulation

General Electric Company (2001) Increased speed and productivity

$2.25 million savings per year Decreased cost of pigments

$2.4 million savings per year Global colour consistency

Issues with Case-Based Issues with Case-Based Systems in Product Systems in Product FormulationFormulation

Quality of case base

small, poor, biased

time-dependent philosophy The learning and refinement of essential

retrieval and adaptation knowledge

Personal ViewsPersonal Views

Product formulation an ideal domain for CBR (and RBR!!)

RBR software package (Formulogic) tried, tested and supported, No such package for CBR

Formulators accept the concept of the CBR paradigm but appear more happy with the RBR approach

Managers accept benefits of both but need to know relative costs and resources

Need to get more fielded applications More research/development necessary